₦airaland Forum

Agbalowomeri:
NGX cannot change rules because two stocks refused to change prices. Let market participants decide. You can't force people to buy or to sell

No one is forcing you to buy or sell, we're saying when a stock is stuck at a level beyond its fair value, an efficient market should have mechanisms in place to avoid illiquidity which is only due to wrong pricing that the market won't allow participants correct.

If you think all an exchange needs to do is list a stock and go to sleep, I think you're still holding on to old outdated knowledge.

nosa2:
The only thing that will make dollars attractive over the Naira in the next 10 years would be if a government comes in and reinstates fuel subsidy, fixes the exchange rate and nationalizes all refineries. If these don't happen then Naira will not witness the kind of collapse you referenced.

Have you thought about policy decisions in the US that could strengthen or weaken the dollar against the naira? That is not under your control.
The issues you listed can be worked on without the naira being weakened. e.g. Nigeria had a stronger naira with national oil refineries working in the 1970-80s. State ownership of assets is not the problem; corruption and mismanagement is.
Aramco is owned by Saudi Govt and they are doing fine.
Don't demonize subsidies. Every country on this earth gives some form of subsidies to their citizens.

You're referring to the Central Limit Theorem in statistics.

nosa2:
Mathematically Statistically speaking , the more stocks you have the more your performance will mirror the index

Agbalowomeri:
Na ASO SAVINGS woundjured mummy wa into vacation. She will be back soon

You dey look for trouble!
Me, I no dey ooo

mikeapollo:
Have you thought about policy decisions in the US that could strengthen or weaken the dollars against the naira? That is not under your control.
The issues you listed can be worked on without the naira being weakened. e.g. Nigeria had a stronger naira with national oil refineries working in the 1970-80s. State ownership of assets is not the problem; corruption and mismanagement is.
Aramco is owned by Saudi Govt and they are doing fine.
Don't demonize subsidies. Every country on this earth gives some form of subsidies to their citizens.

You are right but since we have been unable to find a solution to corruption then we are best using a development model that adds it as a factor. With regards to external policy, yes that too is a factor. So add it as a potential risk. So unless those things happen Naira will not collapse

presiade:
You're referring to the Central Limit Theorem in statistics.

Is statistics not a branch of mathematics?

Why does Aradel always have huge volumes on offer each time the stock price makes a modest appreciation? This is a weird phenomenon. Does it mean so many people had this stock when it was very cheap? I think it was listed at N709, hence the current price is just a modest gain. Why are people soeager to sell? The company should be giving the Seplats of this world a run for their money on the NGX based on their books and their assets.

Random Thought

How did you determine the fair value of AIRTEL?
What IF it is actually OVERPRICED on the LSE?

awesomeJ:
No one is forcing you to buy or sell, we're saying when a stock is stuck at a level beyond its fair value, an efficient market should have mechanisms in place to avoid illiquidity which is only due to wrong pricing that the market won't allow participants correct.

If you think all an exchange needs to do is list a stock and go to sleep, I think you're still holding on to old outdated knowledge.

Scholarly speaking, they are distinct. Ask @Agbalowoeri if you're in doubt.

nosa2:
Is statistics not a branch of mathematics?

nosa2:
You are right but since we have been unable to find a solution to corruption then we are best using a development model that adds it as a factor. With regards to external policy, yes that too is a factor. So add it as a potential risk. So unless those things happen Naira will not collapse

The govt stopped subsidies since 2023, but they have been borrowing like crazy to finance the budget with no concrete results to show.
Ask yourself why they have borrowed trillions of naira when there is no subsidies, and still nothing to show?

KarlTom:
Random Thought

How did you determine the fair value of AIRTEL?
What IF it is actually OVERPRICED on the LSE?

makes no difference. If it's overpriced, the market should be able to correct it as with GEREGU.

your questions relate to something else.

My point is that NGX should not allow a stock stay stuck for more than 3 months overpriced or underpriced.

mikeapollo:
The govt stopped subsidies since 2023, but they have been borrowing like crazy to finance the budget with no concrete results to show.
Ask yourself why they have borrowed trillions of naira when there is no subsidies, and still nothing to show?

The money doesn't need to be used judiciously for the currency to be stable.

nosa2:
You are right but since we have been unable to find a solution to corruption then we are best using a development model that adds it as a factor. With regards to external policy, yes that too is a factor. So add it as a potential risk. So unless those things happen Naira will not collapse

We are still very much dependent on crude oil as a source of foreign exchange earnings.
A sustained downward movement in oil price will be a big challenge for naira stability.

nosa2:
The money doesn't need to be used judiciously for the currency to be stable.

Come again!

To rephrase more clearly.

No one is saying the NGX should set a fair price.

Interpreting my post like that is faulty.

All I'm saying is, when a stock hasn't had a price movement in 3 months, relax you 100k rule so the market can price it fairly.

If it's overpriced, we bid it down, if it's underpriced, we bid it up, and thus have a more robust market.


As it is now, Airtel is as good as delisted on the exchange.


The relaxation is actually only needed for high priced stocks as 100k units on penny stocks isn't material.

At the bolded, I think the reverse is the case. Many bought at 800+

If you know how to time your entry and exit, ARADEL remains one of the BEST stocks for JIJO

e.g.
Someone bought on 29 Sept 2025 @ 560, and sold on 27 October 2025 @870.
That's >50% gain (after ALL deductions) in 1month.

Every mallam to his kettle...

Oasisblue:
Why does Aradel always have huge volumes on offer each time the stock price makes a modest appreciation? This is a weird phenomenon. Does it mean so many people had this stock when it was very cheap? I think it was listed at N709, hence the current price is just a modest gain. Why are people soeager to sell? The company should be giving the Seplats of this world a run for their money on the NGX based on their books and their assets.

pluto09:
We are still very much dependent on crude oil as a source of foreign exchange earnings.
A sustained downward movement in oil price will be a big challenge for naira stability.

Not as big a challenge it would have been if we were importing and subsidizing fuel.

presiade:
You're referring to the Central Limit Theorem in statistics.

Central limit bawo?

You forgot that stocks are not equally weighted so we cannot be correct about taking infinite samples that will mirror the "population" of stocks

Actually, IF it is overpriced on the LSE, then the NGX has nothing to do.
Let's stick with the bolded...

awesomeJ:
makes no difference. If it's overpriced, the market should be able to correct it as with GEREGU.

your questions relate to something else.

My point is that NGX should not allow a stock stay stuck for more than 3 months overpriced or underpriced.

Oasisblue:
Why does Aradel always have huge volumes on offer each time the stock price makes a modest appreciation? This is a weird phenomenon. Does it mean so many people had this stock when it was very cheap? I think it was listed at N709, hence the current price is just a modest gain. Why are people soeager to sell? The company should be giving the Seplats of this world a run for their money on the NGX based on their books and their assets.

What is the EPS of ARADEL?
What is the EPS of SEPLAT?

Ever heard "overhead supply"?

The bigger your sample size, the more you closely you approximate a population (the market index in this case) parameters. Isn't it?

Agbalowomeri:
Central limit bawo?

You forgot that stocks are not equally weighted so we cannot be correct about taking infinite samples that will mirror the "population" of stocks

Agbalowomeri:
Na ASO SAVINGS woundjured mummy wa into vacation. She will be back soon

Speedy recovery mummy wa

presiade:
Scholarly speaking, they are distinct. Ask @Agbalowoeri if you're in doubt.

Is Agbalowomeri a mathematician or a statistician? No profession wey Una never dash me for here

I held 19107 units of EUNISELL at N149.95 at the start of today's session.

I panicked sell everything at 135 only for someone to come clear all the offers at the last minute and close the stock at N158

By selling too early I lost N23 per share making a total of around 439k in just one stock in a single day.

Another 100k loss on Cadbury and losses on other tickers too.


Am I bothered?

I would be if I was a beginner like I was in 2020.

Is my portfolio down by 700k today?

Not quite.

I'm still up over 200k on a day as funny as this.
😁😎

These figures are significant given that my current portfolio isn't so large.

presiade:
The bigger your sample size, the more you closely you approximate a population (the market index in this case) parameters. Isn't it?

But would the index in this case be a fair representation of the "average"? I doubt that it would obey the central limit theorem assumptions

KarlTom:
Actually, IF it is overpriced on the LSE, then the NGX has nothing to do.
Let's stick with the bolded...

If it's overpriced on the lse, then it will simply trade freely at 2000 on the NGX.

The fact that no one agrees with your overpriced theory is why the stock doesn't sell on NGX.

The problem is peculiar to NGX and the fix isn't hard.

awesomeJ:
I held 19107 units of EUNISELL at N149.95 at the start of today's session.

I panicked sell everything at 135 only for someone to come clear all the offers at the last minute and close the stock at N158

By selling too early I lost N23 per share making a total of around 439k in just one stock in a single day.

Another 100k loss on Cadbury and losses on other tickers too.


Am I bothered?

I would be if I was a beginner like I was in 2020.

Is my portfolio down by 700k today?

Not quite.

I'm still up over 200k on a day as funny as this.
😁😎

These figures are significant given that my current portfolio isn't so large.

Una get money for this place oh. Bros make I send aza?

Lol dem say all researchers na statistician.

Agbalowomeri:
Is Agbalowomeri a mathematician or a statistician? No profession wey Una never dash me for here

Someone has been consistently trying to buy a 1m units of a N2270 at N2497 and you think they agree with you that it's overpriced?

When you see a stock on heavy full bid with no one willing to sell, consistently for more than 1 year, what it means is that it's underpriced in your market. Why you would think otherwise is strange.

@KarlTom

ARADEL. -1.50%
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. +9.90%
OandO. -0.25%

Y'all are not nice

SonofElElyonRet:
Speedy recovery mummy wa

That's a matter of conjecture.

Agbalowomeri:
But would the index in this case be a fair representation of the "average"? I doubt that it would obey the central limit theorem assumptions