₦airaland Forum

When Loco called out Neimeth Pharma ...People were saying it was MH . una dey see price now?

Ginalex:
Omo sugar now on full bid

From the price of salt.You should know that gap is definitely going to be closer soon
Sugar is heading for #100 based on street sense

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vapBZGrUuqY

Midday trading update

I still feel dangote sugar will hit 500 like bua foods but only diamond hands will benefit. I locked and loaded 1 million units so by then my dividends will pay off my purchase price.
I remember buying bua food at 60 naira then danfote sugar was at 10 naira but I didn't hold my bua food such mistake wont happen again

Conoil has declined 55% since dec 24 2025. At 153, it would have done 61.8% of wave 3, this is a strong reversal location and swing decline is consistent with a wave (a) of a triangle wave 4. Definitely worth the watch...DYOR

Ref:
ewnation/ngx

abuhusna1:
I still feel dangote sugar will hit 500 like bua foods but only diamond hands will benefit. I locked and loaded 1 million units so by then my dividends will pay off my purchase price

What is going on right now is even child's play. The real play will start by Third quarter of 2026 and come second quarter 2027 , the game go don clear

I projected Dangote Sugar and Nascon to hit 300 Naira in the next 5 years, all things being equal, some people said na lie . I respect everyone's opinion as I leave the rest to time

BUA did 9 Trillion last year , Alhaji did just 1 Trillion. Alhaji slept on it last year, I believe he won't sleep on it this year.

Follow The Money

aj8:
Dangote Sugar Refinery :
Common Sense Target N71.2 - N89.00
Calculation based on Qtr 3 2025 earnings
OS 12,146,878,241.00
Earnings in Qrt N13.682 bill
EPS Qrt 1.13 from negative 3.32


Calculation:
(1.13+3.32) x4 x4 to range (1.13 +3.32) x4 x5
= 71.2 -89.00 Range

Estimate 6 months.


Current price N55.60
Upside 28%-60% within Range.


Caution: Do your research and due diligence.

DS, first target hit. Hold on till the second target of 89. We are well within our 6 months target. As long as a company’s statement of account is accurate and recognizes it's losses in her return to profit, the targets based on the calculations will hit if no significant negative economic down turn.

Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.

I guess it's making some sense even if not a lot of sense.

aj8:
DS, first target hit. Hold on till the second target of 89. We are well within our 6 months target. As long as a company’s statement of account is accurate and recognizes it's losses in her return to profit, the targets based on the calculations will hit if no significant negative economic down turn.





I guess it's making some sense even if not a lot of sense.

Common sense target strategy for the win

I am trying to bid for Presco, but the offer price am seeing is lower than the bid price, yet deals are not consumated. I don't understand this

aj8:
DS, first target hit. Hold on till the second target of 89. We are well within our 6 months target. As long as a company’s statement of account is accurate and recognizes it's losses in her return to profit, the targets based on the calculations will hit if no significant negative economic down turn.





I guess it's making some sense even if not a lot of sense.

Baba Dangsugar is only tracking the NASCON sentiment, nothing more. No fundamental can explain its current price. Even GEREGU at 1000 has some sense afterall

jonnysessy:
I am trying to bid for Presco, but the offer price am seeing is lower than the bid price, yet deals are not consumated. I don't understand this

it is the delayed lag that people have been complaining about, you may have to just put market price as your criteria.

iskalamong:
At the moment, on a per share basis, UBA is not on the same level with GTCO or ZENITHBANK. Both in terms of earnings (Earnings per share (EPS)) or in terms of dividends (dividend per share (DPS)). It is inferior. It has been inferior.

The key phrase is the per share basis

This is called fundamental analysis/peer comparison. It helps you compare companies better.

To simplify it, I know they're all tier one banks. But their revenues, profit and dividends differ. Even when these things are similar, you may need to look at it on a per share basis for a clearer view.

I will use some illutrations for a better understanding.

Example 1:
Two companies make N1 billion as profit after tax. The first has 1 billion shares outstanding while the second has 10 billion shares outstanding.

If the first trades at N10 per share while the second trades at N2 per share, it may seem like the second is undervalued relative to the first. Many newbies may buy the second for this reason.

But if we break it down, the EPS or earnings per share are as follows:

First company EPS = N1 billion / 1 billion shares = N1.00 per share.

Second company EPS = N 1 billion/ 10 billion shares = N0.10 per share.

This shows that the first company's shares earn 10 times that of the second company. This explains the price difference.

Example 2:
Two companies are top players in an industry. They make similar profits, revenues and even EPS but one trades significantly higher than the other. E.g Company A trades at N25 per share while Company B trades at N40 per share.

Solution:
Since earnings, management quality, risk and company fundamentals are the same (or very similar), we may look at the dividend.

Company A might declare N2.45 per share while company B declared N5 per share. In this case, the price difference is due to the higher dividend from company B. This is similar to what is happening in ACCESSCORP and UBA at the moment. The latter has a higher dividend yield. Financial performance and company strength are relatively at par.

My illustrations are not perfect but they are a good start.

Wishing you the best in your investment journey.

For the gurus, I oversimplified because of newbies out there. This way, they can catch up.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

.

.

Your analysis is brilliant as simplified as it was. Thank you.
We will keep on learning and investing.

Why not try to justify your optimism? Markets rise and markets fall, doesn't mean your "calculations" were correct. When do you expect DS to turn positive, and what's your EPS projection for 26/27?

aj8:
DS, first target hit. Hold on till the second target of 89. We are well within our 6 months target. As long as a company’s statement of account is accurate and recognizes it's losses in her return to profit, the targets based on the calculations will hit if no significant negative economic down turn.

... I guess it's making some sense even if not a lot of sense.

KarlTom:
SCHEDULED BOARD MEETINGS

Monday 12th January 2026
GEREGU

Friday, 16th January 2026
LIVINGTRUST

Wednesday, 21st January, 2026
NCR

Thursday, 22nd January 2026
UNILEVER

Tuesday, 27th January, 2026
BERGER, MORISON

Wednesday, 28th January, 2026
ARADEL, OKOMU

Thursday, 29th January, 2026
ACCESS, BUAFOODS, CONHALL, JB, NAHCO, SAHCO, ZENITH

Friday, 30th January 2026
CORONATION

Thursday, 19th February 2026
FIDELITY, UBA

Friday, 20th February 2026
SUNU

Monday 23rd February 2026
NESTLE

Thursday, 26th February 2026
DANGCEMENT, MECURE



......

Meanwhile OANDO Board left the chat room.
Chai..... We don suffer oo

Not any financial advice. I decided to participate in TIP public offer

9free:
Meanwhile OANDO Board left the chat room.
Chai..... We don suffer oo

''Fundamental'' and ''expectant'' members of ''the Board that left the chat room'' have learnt to be very patient.
Hope you are not here to scare or make jest of us. Egungun be careful; we have a ''prophet''

Agbalowomeri:
Baba Dangsugar is only tracking the NASCON sentiment, nothing more. No fundamental can explain its current price. Even GEREGU at 1000 has some sense afterall

If you Focus on the rate of change in the fundamentals
( which number-line analogy reveals).
Not the face value of the fundamentals or ( the final destination on-the-number line).
example
If company moves from EPS of -20 to -5.
That's an EPS of +15 for that quarter alone!.
If one focuses on the final face value of -5(negative 5), one will miss the truer story(+15).

That's how the strategy works for companies with negative EPS.

KarlTom:
SCHEDULED BOARD MEETINGS

Monday 12th January 2026
GEREGU



......

POSTPONED...... Till further notice.

Politicians no get time for board meetings

My target re-entry is ₦150

PuristForest:
Conoil has declined 55% since dec 24 2025. At 153, it would have done 61.8% of wave 3, this is a strong reversal location and swing decline is consistent with a wave (a) of a triangle wave 4. Definitely worth the watch...DYOR

Ref:
ewnation/ngx

chimex38:
If you Focus on the rate of change in the fundamentals
( which number-line analogy reveals).
Not the face value of the fundamentals or ( the final destination on-the-number line).
example
If company moves from EPS of -20 to -5.
That's an EPS of +15 for that quarter alone!.
If one focuses on the final face value of -5(negative 5), one will miss the truer story(+15).

That's how the strategy works for companies with negative EPS.

And my argument has been that why should the rate of change not apply to the results with positive EPS? Cadbury wey comot negative for two quarters has now slipped back to negative in the third quarter. Abi na so we go dey change formula like Klint
This number line stuff will only overstate the projected price.
Of course sentiment can drive any stock to any price and our biases can always justify any price. As first bank dey run dey go na so we dey talk say he dey league of GTCO/ZENITH

Check Market Trade for the most recent traded price.
USe that as a reference.

jonnysessy:
I am trying to bid for Presco, but the offer price am seeing is lower than the bid price, yet deals are not consumated. I don't understand this

KarlTom:
My target re-entry is ₦150

Conoil is coming back home to the usual N23
If you know you know

Wait for UFS

Agbalowomeri:
Baba Dangsugar is only tracking the NASCON sentiment, nothing more. No fundamental can explain its current price. Even GEREGU at 1000 has some sense afterall

Ginalex:
Not any financial advice. I decided to participate in TIP public offer

You are a pro in the waiting game na so even if you hook you go wait it out

Just like GTCO is going to ₦18

Agbalowomeri:
Conoil is coming back home to the usual N23
If you know you know

Agbalowomeri:
Conoil is coming back home to the usual N23
If you know you know

Some people go press your neck if they see face to face

mikeapollo:
''Fundamental'' and ''expectant'' members of ''the Board that left the chat room'' have learnt to be very patient.
Hope you are not here to scare or make jest of us. Egungun be careful; we have a ''prophet''

Bro, we are in it together oh.
I loaded truck load at around N43 just incase the stock stubborn and wan track Aradel or Seplat

ALL SHARE INDEX BEHAVING AS EXPECTED TODAY +0.92 AS TIME OF POSTING

KarlTom:
Just like GTCO is going to ₦18

If I tell you wetin go happen in year 2030 you go fear

Agbalowomeri:
And my argument has been that why should the rate of change not apply to the results with positive EPS? Cadbury wey comot negative for two quarters has now slipped back to negative in the third quarter. Abi na so we go dey change formula like Klint
This number line stuff will only overstate the projected price.
Of course sentiment can drive any stock to any price and our biases can always justify any price. As first bank dey run dey go na so we dey talk say he dey league of GTCO/ZENITH

The basics applies to all.
Well, then other factors and nuances come in. That's where the discount % or upside % is given or not afer ones DD.

If the turnaround from past few Qrts came from its core business operation, then it will likely Deliver.
(Competition, MOAT status, OS)
For reference:
It averaged 40-50 for the rest of the year with it's bad fundamentals
(Brand effect I think)..
Also, It didn't stay below 50 during the November 5% ASI ordeal with it's bad fundamentals
(Brand effect I think as well).

Though pass performance isn't guarantee of future returns.

You re also right in a way..
It always follows NASCON. as NASCON doing well.It also adds spice and kinda solidifies the projected price destination.

Like play like play JAIZ sef don do 10baggers

PuristForest:
Feel free to buy Deapcap, it has broken 2013 resistance, which is now support, next target is 4.6..enjoy

ref:
https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/9763#137366745
ewnation/ngx

Thank you, well appreciated