₦airaland Forum

aj8:
Common Sense Target for TIP = revised to approximately 16.00 considering OS of 2.0 bill
Common Sense Target for Veritaskap = 3.72- 4.65


Please do your research/ due diligence.


@unite4real

I looked at TIP again factoring in the share dilution (public offer) and this is believing they won't go above the shares proposed for public offer and the diluted EPS should be below 1.8.

The business still looking great at SP 15 because of the 250% profit surge in 2025 if sustainable.

Still undervalued, TIP should go on full bid tomorrow, should sell between 18 and 25 present fair value

essentialone:
Perhaps Royalex also used Weighed Average Outstanding Shares in their EPS calculations?

Yes

Using weighted average number of shares to compute eps, especially when there has been an increase in shares during the year is technically correct. For my own use however, I always prefer to use the absolute number of shares to be conservative, and for the fact that dividend paid on each share is not weighted regardless of if the shares were issued in December of the year in question.

https://x.com/i/spaces/1DXxyWjdELNGM

Discussing the coming week's trading session on the NGX by 8pm WAT.

leo1234:
0.22 is the weighted average. The fully diluted eps should be 0.11.
4.13 billion shares was used for the calculation.
The outstanding shares increased to 8.27 billion after the right issues.

I don't really understand why they used the previous outstanding shares even though right issue was in 2024.

In Account metrics, what is the implications of this?

zendi:
Working for the banks, as you once put it.

As for us Oandites, we shall continue to jijo it, collecting our redistributables and wishing for one massive oil bull to come one day and help us wipe all the problems away.

In fact, all these negatives are why it remains affordable and jijoable.

You can't jijo Aradel because it's price has gone beyond frequent gyrations.

You ought to know by now that my writings are directed to investors who invest with facts and figures.

SCOA Plc has not done any AGMs for the past 7 years, since 2019 to date. True or False?

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Listings-site/corporate-disclosure-site/Documents/SCOA_NIGERIA_PLC_COURT_ORDERED_AGM_.pdf

cocolacec:
OANDO

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45938_OANDO_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf

Revenue dropped likely due to decline in downstream sales.

Marginal growth in profit (c.10%)

They reported EPS of c.N30 and the stock is trading at N40.

Looking like it’s still the cheapest (or at least one of the cheapest stock) on the Nigerian exchange.

Negative shareholder funds, high debt and no dividend are potential negatives keeping share price low.

I will take a better look at the numbers later.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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emmanuelewumi:
I will write about the negative vibes others can write about the positive vibes of Oando


Shareholders fund is negative N553 billion

Debt is N3 Trillion

Finance cost is N59 billion

Working Capital is negative N3.2 Trillion

Net operating cash flow is negative N147 billion

Free Cash Flow is negative N259 billion.

Nice perspective.

This explains the skeptism of the market

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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emmanuelewumi:
Assuming interest rates on the N3 Trillion debt is at 15% which is rare

That will be N450 billion on interest payments alone, when will they pay down the principal amount?


I think creditors should convert their loans to equity, that will give breathing space to Oando

That is exactly what the company is working on.

The announcement was made last year.

They are looking at a conversion price of N50 per share

Iskalamong!

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conecnd:
Oando group (Consolidated) Performance
- Revenue vs. Cost of Sales
- Revenue dropped from ₦4.09 trillion (2024) to ₦3.21 trillion (2025).
- Cost of sales was almost equal to revenue, leaving only a slim gross profit of ₦27.7 billion in 2025 (vs. ₦155.9 billion in 2024).
- This shows the core trading operations were under heavy margin pressure.

- Key Profit Drivers in 2025
- Reversal of impairment on financial assets: ₦573 billion gain (vs. a ₦76 billion loss in 2024).
- Finance income: ₦381 billion (huge jump from ₦47 billion in 2024).
- Tax credits: ₦226 billion (vs. ₦163 billion tax expense in 2024).

- Bottom line
- Net profit: ₦241 billion in 2025 (slightly higher than ₦220 billion in 2024).
- The profit was not from core oil trading but mainly from accounting reversals, financial asset recoveries, and tax credits.

Thanks for this

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emmanuelewumi:
You ought to know by now that my writings are directed to investors who invest with facts and figures.

But I started by agreeing with you, in my first line.

Then I proceeded to tell you how we jijoists dance to the music.

Investors and traders know what they're doing, and make money.

Thanks for setting this up. We really need accurate signals in this current market climate.

My main worry right now is inflation eating up dividends before they even land. I’m constantly checking the black-market FX rates here https://abokidollar.com/black-market-rate to see if my stock gains are actually 'real' gains in dollar terms or if I’m just breaking even.

Do you have any picks specifically for companies with low FX exposure?

Let’s keep this thread active.

stockbull:
Nigerian stock exchange market alert,
Daily market report,capitalization,index,cscs,today report.
If you are investor in the Nigeria stock exchange market and you are active investor , follow this thread as I will be posting stocks that would make significant gains and the time limit based on my perspective.
You want to alert your friends,share and bookmark this topic,copy the link below

http://rs.gs/VU8

please read my disclaimer that's effective on any stock pick recommendation you get here
DISCLAIMER
YOU SHOULD CONSULT YOUR TRUSTED INVESTING COUNSELLOR OR YOUR BROKER BEFORE YOU INVEST IN MY RECOMMENDED STOCKS AS YOU KNOW STOCKS RESPOND TO NEWS AND NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO ANY STOCK IN THE NEXT DAY AND THE FUTURE DECISION OF ANY COMPANY 'S MANAGEMENT

floval:
Guys, I’m considering investing ₦2 million in the short term, and I’m currently looking at Access Bank and Oando. What would you suggest? Your responses and recommendations would be greatly appreciated.

Access Bank

emmanuelewumi:
I will write about the negative vibes others can write about the positive vibes of Oando


Shareholders fund is negative N553 billion

Debt is N3 Trillion

Finance cost is N59 billion

Working Capital is negative N3.2 Trillion

Net operating cash flow is negative N147 billion

Free Cash Flow is negative N259 billion.

A quick look at Oando PLC’s FY2025 results. The company reported profit of approximately ₦241 billion, only about ₦50 billion, roughly 20%, was attributable to core operating activities. The bulk of earnings came from non-operational sources such as impairment reversals, finance income, and FX or tax-related adjustments, all of which are volatile and mostly non-recurring.

Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion. Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares, while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

To maintain a clean balance sheet, one option is to increase operating profit by more than fourfold, or alternatively to restructure the capital structure by converting debt into equity. The first is difficult but potentially achievable if the company can significantly reduce operating expenses. The second is easier to execute and could benefit investors over the long term, as an annual interest burden of around ₦200 billion is substantial to sustain.

debeey87:
This result needs a lot of explaining. Not very easy understanding the gbelo gbebo with the numbers

True.

Their outstanding shares reduced by about a third.

I wonder the reason for this.

That is why their EPS jumped to N30.

Update:
They repurchased treasury shares. This is the reason.

Iskalamong!

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ositadima1:
A quick look at Oando PLC’s FY2025 results. The company reported profit of approximately ₦241 billion, only about ₦50 billion, roughly 20%, was attributable to core operating activities. The bulk of earnings came from non-operational sources such as impairment reversals, finance income, and FX or tax-related adjustments, all of which are volatile and mostly non-recurring.

Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion. Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

To maintain a clean balance sheet, one option is to increase operating profit by more than fourfold, or alternatively to restructure the capital structure by converting debt into equity. The first is difficult but potentially achievable if the company can significantly reduce operating expenses. The second is easier to execute and could benefit investors over the long term, as an annual interest burden of around ₦200 billion is substantial to sustain.

Their profit grew by c.10% but EPS grew substantially due to a reduction (about a third) in the group’s outstanding shares.

I guess this treasury shares you mentioned is the reason for this.

I suspect they want to keep their EPS high (by extension, their share price). Because that’s the direct consequence.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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iskalamong:
That is exactly what the company is working on.

The announcement was made last year.

They are looking at a conversion price of N50 per share

Iskalamong!

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That will create additional 60 billion shares if N3 Trillion debt is converted to equity

It is well as I read results here.Some come with style to market the stocks in thr portfolio.They are next best thing even when its price is already on the top based present FA.
Then they make the others look so bad even when decisions has been in process to address this existing wahala.
Make una dey fear God.

The main issue I always have with a company in distress .Is the company crawling out or digging deeper into the well. It is the case of some companies on ngx.
If the company in distress is digging deeper into the problem then run,if that is not the case otherwise all u need is patience if you are not here for quick money.

conecnd:
Oando group (Consolidated) Performance
- Revenue vs. Cost of Sales
- Revenue dropped from ₦4.09 trillion (2024) to ₦3.21 trillion (2025).
- Cost of sales was almost equal to revenue, leaving only a slim gross profit of ₦27.7 billion in 2025 (vs. ₦155.9 billion in 2024).
- This shows the core trading operations were under heavy margin pressure.

- Key Profit Drivers in 2025
- Reversal of impairment on financial assets: ₦573 billion gain (vs. a ₦76 billion loss in 2024).
- Finance income: ₦381 billion (huge jump from ₦47 billion in 2024).
- Tax credits: ₦226 billion (vs. ₦163 billion tax expense in 2024).

- Bottom line
- Net profit: ₦241 billion in 2025 (slightly higher than ₦220 billion in 2024).
- The profit was not from core oil trading but mainly from accounting reversals, financial asset recoveries, and tax credits.

Abracadabra Oil & Gas Nigeria Limited!

Bigdeal01:
Ote$ has something to say about Firstbank's poor report. They simply took a hit from bad loans.

The book cleaning has been on for more than 8 years!

All this na story for the gullible investors.

emmanuelewumi:
Dividend payment is not possible in the next 15 years until Trillions of Naira is injected into the business in form equity. This will enable the business to stabilize

I prefer to analyse Oando in the context that they have publicly announced plans to raise. capital via equiry shares,other instruments and also convert debt to equity.
There is also N287b Treasury Stocks (i.e fully issued shares now repurchased and paid for by the company) which contributes to the negative equity of N553b. Otherwise the actual negative equity would be about N266b.
Oando's debts are secured against its huge reserves.

ositadima1:
A quick look at Oando PLC’s FY2025 results. The company reported profit of approximately ₦241 billion, only about ₦50 billion, roughly 20%, was attributable to core operating activities. The bulk of earnings came from non-operational sources such as impairment reversals, finance income, and FX or tax-related adjustments, all of which are volatile and mostly non-recurring.

Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion. Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares, while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

To maintain a clean balance sheet, one option is to increase operating profit by more than fourfold, or alternatively to restructure the capital structure by converting debt into equity. The first is difficult but potentially achievable if the company can significantly reduce operating expenses. The second is easier to execute and could benefit investors over the long term, as an annual interest burden of around ₦200 billion is substantial to sustain.

eps was calculated using 8.152b instead of 12b.
Any idea how they arrived at this?
What is their output of crude oil (boe) now?

iskalamong:
Revenue dropped likely due to decline in downstream sales.

Marginal growth in profit (c.10%)

They reported EPS of c.N30 and the stock is trading at N40.

Looking like it’s still the cheapest (or at least one of the cheapest stock) on the Nigerian exchange.

Negative shareholder funds, high debt and no dividend are potential negatives keeping share price low.

I will take a better look at the numbers later.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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.

We all know about the claimed drop in crude out put which I keep wondering why.why should we be having it with the kind of money paid to individuals for its security. And the region has been relatively peaceful. It only points to government stealing by this government as they loot from everywhere for election. The issues u pointed out has been identified in the past and processes are already in place to address it.Imagine the kind of money if 50% conversion of debt to equity is done.we equally know the large debt is tied to crude so nothing special as long as the crude is still flowing. And price remains stable above cost of production.
Then again nothing to worry for people like me as we have the good and bad in our portfolio. It is the ugly/dead we avoid.Oando is never among the third category here

Raider76:
FIRSTHOLDCO will shoot up like a growth stock once the current management sort all the problems of the NPLs of the past. I quote the following from the Nairametrics report;

"The profit decline can primarily be attributed to impairment charges for losses, particularly loans and advances to customers, amounting to N710 billion."

We all know of at least 2 major battles in court the bank is fighting to recover money from debtors who are trying to run away with billions of dollars they took from the bank in its yahoo days. Many banks would have collapsed under the weight of such NPLs. Imagine if all such loans were recovered. I will be surprised if the SP of FIRSTHOLDCO dips much after tomorrow.

I don't believe this.

Streetinvestor2:
We all know about the claimed drop in crude out put which I keep wondering why.why should we be having it with the kind of money paid to individuals for its security. And the region has been relatively peaceful. It only points to government stealing by this government as they loot from everywhere for election. The issues u pointed out has been identified in the past and processes are already in place to address it.Imagine the kind of money if 50% conversion of debt to equity is done.we equally know the large debt is tied to crude so nothing special as long as the crude is still flowing. And price remains stable above cost of production.
Then again nothing to worry for people like me as we have the good and bad in our portfolio. It is the ugly/dead we avoid.Oando is never among the third category here

Like Oando liike First Bank.

This 'fathom debt' is insiders' benefit.

I'm a fair weather investor,I don't give room for lies or stories!

emmanuelewumi:
That will create additional 60 billion shares if N3 Trillion debt is converted to equity

True.

That will make their total shares outstanding c.68 billion

Assuming they save 10% in interest expense, that is N300 billion savings. That should make their profit N540 billion.

Adjusting for that in their EPS, the EPS should be approximately N7.94

Using share price of N40 to calculate PE ratio, their PE ratio should be around 5x at the moment. This changes the cheapness narrative reasonably (compared to the current PE ratio below 1.5x).

With top line growth and margin improvements, PE multiple could rise between 8x to 10x of present EPS (this is fair for Oil and Gas players). That’s a potential c. 40% to c.100% upside from current price levels (or N56 to N80 in share price terms).

In a nutshell, the stock remains very cheap but not as cheap as one would think at first glance using PE multiples alone.

At this rate, I won’t be diving deeper into the financials. I don’t think I’ll dive any deeper than we have.

Thank you all for your insights.

It has been an educative session today.

More of it please.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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emmanuelewumi:
That will create additional 60 billion shares if N3 Trillion debt is converted to equity

Streetinvestor2:
It is well as I read results here.Some come with style to market the stocks in thr portfolio.They are next best thing even when its price is already on the top based present FA.
Then they make the others look so bad even when decisions has been in process to address this existing wahala.
Make una dey fear God.

The main issue I always have with a company in distress .Is the company crawling out or digging deeper into the well. It is the case of some companies on ngx.
If the company in distress is digging deeper into the problem then run,if that is not the case otherwise all u need is patience if you are not here for quick money.

That is likely why they are not restructuring yet. At some point, they may attempt to drive the share price to the ₦250–₦500 range, at which stage a restructuring involving the issuance of 6–9 billion new shares would be more palatable. Others have done this before, and it is reasonable to assume they could find a way to execute a similar strategy.

In the meantime, management can work on reducing operating expenses, revaluing assets to alleviate negative equity and improve balance-sheet optics, and positioning the company more attractively.

If they are fortunate enough to benefit from a sustained rise in international crude prices, excess cash flows could be used to gradually deleverage.

There maybe several paths available if management is genuinely committed to improving the company’s fundamentals.

pluto09:
eps was calculated using 8.152b instead of 12b.
Any idea how they arrived at this?
What is their output of crude oil (boe) now?

They repurchased treasury shares. This reduced their shares outstanding.

Iskalamong!

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iskalamong:
They repurchased treasury shares. This reduced their shares outstanding.

Iskalamong!

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Which one is repurchase treasury shares?

emmanuelewumi:
That will create additional 60 billion shares if N3 Trillion debt is converted to equity

Oando does not need to convert all the N3 trillion to equity.
But they need to convert some and also raise enough funds to drastically pay off the interest- bearing commercial loans in order to eliminate or reduce the Finance costs. Once that is fine, equity and profit would be boosted significantly.

pluto09:
Which one is repurchase treasury shares?

Please see the message below:

ositadima1: Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion.

Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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