₦airaland Forum

Good evening Puristforest
Please I need buy recommendations on 2 NGX stocks based on TA
Thanks

Aradel sent their beautiful result to my email address.I never see this kind thing before!

Deadlytruth:
We shall surely see N2 for a stock with full bid today to the tune of over 400m units in bid but buyers got only about 2.5m units to buy. Recall that Standard Alliance used to be in the same league with NEM, CUSTODIAN, IEI of those days, and AIICO Just before the crash in 2008.

How much is presently the living insurance companies on ngx like prestige, guinea, veritas universal.And you are talking of dead insurance. Let the price get close to #1 and you see all that bid disappear. You didn’t see it happen in aso savings before it was suspended. Leave all those bids stock brokers are all placing to push it up so they can japa after it has been written off as loss for yrs
It is game of the smart that is being played here

https://open.spotify.com/episode/44bKOlIM2cGoyAw1Dl8OX7

A few thoughts on Wema following its joining the SWOOT (stocks worth over N1 trillion) league yesterday.

Streetinvestor2:
How much is presently the living insurance companies on ngx like prestige, guinea, veritas universal.And you are talking of dead insurance. Let the price get close to #1 and you see all that bid disappear. You didn’t see it happen in aso savings before it was suspended. Leave all those bids stock brokers are all placing to push it up so they can japa after it has been written off as loss for yrs
It is game of the smart that is being played here

Are the likes of Custodian, NEM, IEI not insurance companies? Recall that IEI, weak as it's numbers are and was even being rumoured for delisting last year while at N1.2 or so,has weathered the storm and is at 3+ today. The fact that Fortis was even able to fight NAICOM's license withdrawal in court and win, survive the technical suspension and finally return to business to the extent of meeting up with results release up to date to the effect of release from technical suspension is evident enough that anything can happen in this NGX. I won't be surprised if I see this Fortis Global at N10 per share much later on. Recall that when RT BRISCOE was at N0.2 it was written off totally on this thread as a no-hope-stock? But here it is today at above N10 meaning who ever bought it at just that 20kobo in 2022 now has his investment multiplied by 50. Can you beat that?

naturalflow:
Aradel sent their beautiful result to my email address.I never see this kind thing before!

Na because you get controlling interest

When you are big, you are large

Agbalowomeri:
Na because you get controlling interest

When you are big, you are large

Na board member he be(unofficially)

The Gist on Univinsure.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6Yc44i_eUk

Ref:
https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/10034#138331017
https://ewnation/ngx

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgjUnU5a4fk

I walk through technical analysis for Wema Bank, Daar Communications, NGX Group , Abbey Bank, RT Briscoe, Dangote cement and MTN Nigeria, ahead of today's trading session.

thanks!

ositadima1:
Custodian’s 2025 results look strong, but it wasn’t a normal growth year. Total assets expanded sharply from about ₦407bn to over ₦1.0tn, mainly due to acquisitions and a big increase in investments. Although these acquisitions were funded internally, they also brought in large existing assets and liabilities, which significantly inflated the balance sheet.

Profit after tax rose to about ₦67bn, with EPS of 1,119 kobo. However, earnings were heavily supported by investment income and market-related gains of over ₦110bn, compared to an insurance service result of roughly ₦12bn. This shows profits were more investment-driven than underwriting-driven.

Operating cash flow of about ₦478bn looks very strong, but roughly ₦410bn of this came from a sharp rise in trade payables, meaning cash was boosted mainly by delayed payments rather than permanently higher earnings.

Given the mixed quality of earnings and higher sensitivity to markets, I think a reasonable valuation range is a P/E of about 5x–7x, not a high insurance multiple. Applying this to the EPS of ₦11.19 gives a fair value range of roughly ₦56 to ₦78 per share (aj8 style ). Until earnings stability is proven through a weaker market cycle, 2025 should not be treated as a clean baseline year.

Numbers first, narratives later.
-- ositadima1

Ding!!!

Still valid stocks for this week



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxeOxNP7EUQ

With rate of massive over subscription in treasury bills up to 4 trillion and consequent reduction in discount rate of 365 days, naira gaining against the dollar, inflation rate "reducing" and cbn possibly cutting MPR this month. Its a no brainer that the market will be bullish this quarter and next. Companies will also post better results in the mentioned quarters...

Agba our black hat thinker, what's your view, are we still expecting red valentine month...

I hope hoarders of Fortis Global Insurance stocks are aware that price will never go up to their dream 1/2/5/etc naira except there is the sale of at least 100k units bought as a single trade per day?
Because haba!

awesomeJ:
@Willie2015 caalled it yesterday.

I've sold 7340 today

I take some profit at 7370 on Seplat today

I hold till KM 8000k

wiki15:
I hope hoarders of Fortis Global Insurance stocks are aware that price will never go up to their dream 1/2/5/etc naira except there is the sale of at least 100k units bought as a single trade per day?
Because haba!

Explain this rule, i bided for Zichis at market price for days and bids was never filled, i saw no trade and Zichis kept going up with FULL BID.

Thanks. I don't care much about the dividends, only appreciation.

mikeapollo:
Custodian has been consistent in capital appreciation over the years.
If you are interested in dividends, I would suggest you compare the possible dividend yield (at current price and current (or prior year) dividend) with other yields or interest rates in the market. If you are okay, then you may go ahead and buy.

OS: 12,911,030,586
ENDURA INVESTMENT GLOBAL LTD. 3,140,774,908 (24.33%)
GEMROCK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LIMITED. 2,594,060,738 (20%)
FIRST INLAND BANK PLC/FCMB. 1,120,000,000 (9%)

Total Substantial Shareholdings 6,854,835,646 (53%)
Free Float: 6,056,139,815 (47%)

wiki15:
I hope hoarders of Fortis Global Insurance stocks are aware that price will never go up to their dream 1/2/5/etc naira except there is the sale of at least 100k units bought as a single trade per day?
Because haba!

WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD KNOW ABOUT THE INSURANCE SECTOR AHEAD OF RECAPITALISATION
Insurance is the most underpriced sector in the market
While many sectors have already repriced 300–500%+, insurance stocks remain largely undervalued because the market has not priced in recapitalisation outcomes.
This is not an earnings or dividend cycle
The current phase is driven by balance-sheet strength and capital adequacy, not short-term profits or dividend payouts.
Recapitalisation will reset valuations
New regulatory capital requirements will force insurers to raise capital, merge, or exit. Survival itself will become a major source of value.
The ₦1 trillion+ recapitalisation wave is insurance-led
A significant portion of expected recapitalisation capital in Nigeria will flow into insurance and financial stocks, placing insurance at the center of this cycle.
Balance-sheet strengthening comes before price appreciation
Companies are currently restructuring, cleaning up assets, and preparing for capital raises. Price movement typically follows recap clarity.
Quiet accumulation is already taking place
Flat prices alongside increasing volumes suggest long-term investors are positioning ahead of public recap announcements.
Single-digit prices are misleading
Current prices reflect uncertainty, not future balance-sheet strength. Once recapitalisation is achieved, prices will reset quickly.
Post-recap price projections will differ by strength
Strong recap leaders → ₦50 – ₦100+ over time
Mid-tier survivors → ₦10 – ₦30 range
Successful small survivors → ₦3 – ₦10+
Failures → dilution, forced mergers, or exit
Repricing will be sharp, not gradual
Once recap success becomes clear, liquidity flows rapidly into survivors, leading to fast valuation adjustments.
Risk is binary, upside is asymmetric
Companies that meet recapitalisation requirements can rerate significantly, while those that fail face permanent capital loss.
FINAL TAKEAWAY
Insurance recapitalisation is a balance-sheet-driven reset, not a speculative rally. Prices today do not reflect post-recap realities. Investors who align early with recap-capable companies position ahead of valuation resets, while late entrants buy at much higher levels.

TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EARLY MARKET COMMENT
What will ye AllShare index do today?

the way you present your fictions make me shake. what is your course of sturdy

Stockpromoter:
WHAT INVESTORS SHOULD KNOW ABOUT THE INSURANCE SECTOR AHEAD OF RECAPITALISATION
Insurance is the most underpriced sector in the market
While many sectors have already repriced 300–500%+, insurance stocks remain largely undervalued because the market has not priced in recapitalisation outcomes.
This is not an earnings or dividend cycle
The current phase is driven by balance-sheet strength and capital adequacy, not short-term profits or dividend payouts.
Recapitalisation will reset valuations
New regulatory capital requirements will force insurers to raise capital, merge, or exit. Survival itself will become a major source of value.
The ₦1 trillion+ recapitalisation wave is insurance-led
A significant portion of expected recapitalisation capital in Nigeria will flow into insurance and financial stocks, placing insurance at the center of this cycle.
Balance-sheet strengthening comes before price appreciation
Companies are currently restructuring, cleaning up assets, and preparing for capital raises. Price movement typically follows recap clarity.
Quiet accumulation is already taking place
Flat prices alongside increasing volumes suggest long-term investors are positioning ahead of public recap announcements.
Single-digit prices are misleading
Current prices reflect uncertainty, not future balance-sheet strength. Once recapitalisation is achieved, prices will reset quickly.
Post-recap price projections will differ by strength
Strong recap leaders → ₦50 – ₦100+ over time
Mid-tier survivors → ₦10 – ₦30 range
Successful small survivors → ₦3 – ₦10+
Failures → dilution, forced mergers, or exit
Repricing will be sharp, not gradual
Once recap success becomes clear, liquidity flows rapidly into survivors, leading to fast valuation adjustments.
Risk is binary, upside is asymmetric
Companies that meet recapitalisation requirements can rerate significantly, while those that fail face permanent capital loss.
FINAL TAKEAWAY
Insurance recapitalisation is a balance-sheet-driven reset, not a speculative rally. Prices today do not reflect post-recap realities. Investors who align early with recap-capable companies position ahead of valuation resets, while late entrants buy at much higher levels.

Abeg make someone help me with Cadbury result .make I see if it could open from whr I dey

FORTIS

This company might be going through a whole lot.

I noticed that the Fair value gain on investment property in FY2024 was ₦7,64bn, in FY2025 nothing was declared. Whereas Finance Charges increased by +400%...

Every mallam to his kettle

KarlTom:
OS: 12,911,030,586
ENDURA INVESTMENT GLOBAL LTD. 3,140,774,908 (24.33%)
GEMROCK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LIMITED. 2,594,060,738 (20%)
FIRST INLAND BANK PLC/FCMB. 1,120,000,000 (9%)

Total Substantial Shareholdings 6,854,835,646 (53%)
Free Float: 6,056,139,815 (47%)

If SAHCO keeps flying above nahco it will favour those in Nahco. Cos there will be pressure on the MM of nahco. How their small bros come de pass them. Like wise when wapco tries to catch bua cement.

Redoil:
the way you present your fictions make me shake. what is your course of sturdy

This is not fiction. It’s an analysis based on regulatory direction, recapitalisation requirements, balance-sheet trends, and how similar cycles have played out historically. You’re free to disagree, but the logic is clear: recapitalisation drives valuation resets.

Rule 11 of NGX Market Model and Trading Manual - Equities states that "The minimum quantity traded that will change published price of an equity security is as follows: Minimum Quantity - 100,000."

As for Zichis, I don't know why it's showing no trades but official daily log says that it's been selling millions of units per day, more than 2 million units were sold yesterday February 4th.

isaacosas01:
Explain this rule, i bided for Zichis at market price for days and bids was never filled, i saw no trade and Zichis kept going up with FULL BID.

wiki15:
I hope hoarders of Fortis Global Insurance stocks are aware that price will never go up to their dream 1/2/5/etc naira except there is the sale of at least 100k units bought as a single trade per day?
Because haba!

According to Pastor Tunde Bakare, one of the most costly acts of kindness is when you toil and labour very hard for years making sacrifices and bearing unspeakable pains in pursuit of a dream, and when that dream finally materializes, rather than enjoy it yourself you, in the name kindness, hold it out to someone who was never part of the sacrifices and the pains, and then say "Come and take". He added that even God himself will not be happy with that your kindness.
So you want those of us who have suffered almost nine years of the pains of losing hundreds of thousands and even millions in Fortis amidst pain and fear of delisting to, at this time of opportunity to reap, just call you and say; come and take, just because we want to deliver 100k units to move price up? Abeg if the moneybags in Fortis are not ready to release 100k bloc units, let it remain where it is. We the ordinary shellholders are not in a hurry. After all we did nine years inside it already. Lol.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTHh4iSrh4o

Midday trading update on the NGX

Good talk! Thank you.

Deadlytruth:
According to Pastor Tunde Bakare, one of the most costly acts of kindness is when you toil and labour very hard for years making sacrifices and bearing unspeakable pains in pursuit of a dream, and when that dream finally materializes, rather than enjoy it yourself you, in the name kindness, hold it out to someone who was never part of the sacrifices and the pains, and then say "Come and take". He added that even God himself will not be happy with that your kindness.
So you want those of us who have suffered almost nine years of the pains of losing hundreds of thousands and even millions in Fortis amidst pain and fear of delisting to, at this time of opportunity to reap, just call you and say; come and take, just because we want to deliver 100k units to move price up? Abeg if the moneybags in Fortis are not ready to release 100k bloc units, let it remain where it is. We the ordinary shellholders are not in a hurry. After all we did nine years inside it already. Lol.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5a8OpockhzcokdjPtn5OCp

A walkthrough Custodian investment interim FY 2025 earnings

Reversal
Currently about full offer at 6.18

PuristForest:
good reversal 6.5-7.6...think it will do 12 at least