₦airaland Forum

PropTrader:
The money is probably in the wallet. You need to move it first from the wallet to your naira trading account for it to be accessible for share purchase.

Ohh, great.

I will come back with my progress
God bless.

chimex38:
@bolded, that's not the point. I also believe it will deliver but not just yet.

I was only reminding/stating a fact- acquiring timeline runs until 2027.
It doesn't end in 2025!!

Therefore, following your premise, Write-off and legacy debts on the forth-coming 2026/2027 acquirees () might dampen any 2025/2026 profit into next yr 2027.

Okay.

PropTrader:
The money is probably in the wallet. You need to move it first from the wallet to your naira trading account for it to be accessible for share purchase.

It's settled.
Thanks for your timely response.
God bless you.

Sunrisepebble:
I think that’s what’s driving the price because I wasn’t that impressed with the result

Their result is good. The Reason why Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024 looks lower is because of some high base effect of tarriff increase that happened in 2024. If you plot the chat of quarterly revenue in 2024 vs 2025, you will see the high jump that happened in 2024, but 2025 was smoother. You have to think about it that way, if not you will run off with the assumption of an unimpressive result.

Agree with the bolder, Yes I’ve spoken to someone about the result, which is why Q3 also didn’t look that great compared to Q3 2024. But my point is the growth is clearly slowing down and with a stable exchange rate I doubt you’d see massive price increases the way we did in the last two years.
If they make N3 every quarter of this year 2026, is the share price not fairly valued at the current price. Dividend yield for this year at current price is also less than 7%.
Would rather sell and put in stocks that I believe have far more upside in terms of capital appreciation and dividend yield.
Obviously this is just my opinion and I have already sold

NettyNelly:
Their result is good. The Reason why Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024 looks lower is because of some high base effect of tarriff increase that happened in 2024. If you plot the chat of quarterly revenue in 2024 vs 2025, you will see the high jump that happened in 2024, but 2025 was smoother. You have to think about it that way, if not you will run off with the assumption of an unimpressive result.

Starpro87:
It's settled.
Thanks for your timely response.
God bless you.

Bless you too.

2zona:
Even if they do report loss, trust me, it has been priced in already. Worst case, it will shade weight and rebound that same day.

Dont ve too sure if that because the price can fall further if the results are too poor.

When Japaul takes off, it's going to be an astronomical shoot

Sunrisepebble:
Agree with the bolder, Yes I’ve spoken to someone about the result, which is why Q3 also didn’t look that great compared to Q3 2024. But my point is the growth is clearly slowing down and with a stable exchange rate I doubt you’d see massive price increases the way we did in the last two years.
If they make N3 every quarter of this year 2026, is the share price not fairly valued at the current price. Dividend yield for this year at current price is also less than 7%.
Would rather sell and put in stocks that I believe have far more upside in terms of capital appreciation and dividend yield.
Obviously this is just my opinion and I have already sold

Which stocks do you think have good upside atm

Japaul needs to learn from EllahLake how it did it that its now trading at over N14 despite recurring losses.

SonofElElyonRet:
When Japaul takes off, it's going to be an astronomical shoot

SonofElElyonRet:
When Japaul takes off, it's going to be an astronomical shoot

" When Japaul takes off"...... Adverbial clause of Assumption.

I’ve posted the list and my target prices for the stocks. I’m sure there are other ones but someone will have to point them out to me so I can do my research.

I own Vitafoam, Wapco MTN, Seplat, Zenith, GT and Transcorp at good average prices. I think MTNN is my surest conviction for this year, I bought quite a lot at 535. I think they can do 70+ EPS this year and pay out 50+

Xidget:
Which stocks do you think have good upside atm

WHAT WILL THE ALLSHARE INDEX DO ON MONDAY 8 FEBRUARY
These days my investing in the Nigeria market is in. very relaxed mood. I do target buys only using "market data". It has been very interesting.

On Monday we should see the index doing between +0.66 to +0.85 fir the day conservatively.

Happy weekend ro all.

@xidget
For Vitafoam that price is with consideration of the bonus issue. I think it will get back to pre-bonus level

Sunrisepebble:
My target prices for the below:
GTCO 120
MTNN 800
SEPLAT 9,000+
TRANCORP 60-70
VITAFOAM- 120
WAPCO- 200
ZENITH - 90-100

I don’t see much upside in NAHCO any longer. Dollar is stable and DPS for FY will not give you a 10% yield at current price. Will they continue to grow revenue and earnings the way they did previously. Their Q3 was evident of that.
Pa Emma I would like to hear your opinion @Emmanuelewumi

ppogba:
" When Japaul takes off"...... Adverbial clause of Assumption.

"When" not "If"

faoogoke:
Japaul needs to learn from EllahLake how it did it that its now trading at over N14 despite recurring losses.

Not rocket science. Just update the investing public on your milestone achievements and engage market makers. Where are we with the mining and refining?? Where are we with the fundraising? Why no interviews on Arise TV, channels etc? Jegede sef!

Sunrisepebble:
@xidget
For Vitafoam that price is with consideration of the bonus issue. I think it will get back to pre-bonus level

Good evening.

If I may ask why is it that most of the bosses that spent much time in the market do not usually hold DangCem?

I no fit mentioned all the bosses but pls if u come across you can drop your input.

Thanks.

Starpro87:
Hi, good day.

I funded my Investnaija account, hoping to invest in Aradel holdings.

System is telling me insufficient fund to buy stock, whereas I allegedly have sufficient funds there.

Please what could be the issue, or is there something I'm not getting right?

Please do well to reply to my inquiry.
Thanks in anticipation.

It is better you open an account with Morgan capital or Atlas.

I don't know much about investnaija.

iHaveMadeiT2:
For new comers, just a note of caution. Except you're already in the bus, this is generally not a buying season. If one is not careful, FOMO can force you to jump in at an ATH price and you may find yourself left stranded for months

You never can tell, this may just be the beginning of upwards trend.

Just know your risk appetite.

Entrepreneurrr:
Good evening.

If I may ask why is it that most of the bosses that spent much time in the market do not usually hold DangCem?

I no fit mentioned all the bosses but pls if u come across you can drop your input.

Thanks.

DangCem is a very good company for a conservative investor, it's one of those companies that my children will likely inherit from me cos I don't see myself selling it considering the fact that Africa will remain a construction site for the next 50 years , if not more

Very consistent with dividends payments, with an incredible payout ratio, the company is not stingy.

Another good thing is , it keeps on expanding across Africa, and it has a working formula that wins in all those countries

It's a good company to hold , I got in when it was 160 Naira , and I top up last year at 400+.

The company is likely to pay between 35 - 40 Naira dividends this year cos it paid 30 Naira last year . There is always upward review of dividends, the company no stingy at all

My projection is 1000 in the next 12 months but it is not a buy recommendation cos the price has really rally in the past few days, so I will not advice anyone to jump in right now. But if you are already in the bus , I will advise you to hold. I'm sure the FY 2025 will be a very good one and the dividends won't be bad either

Try do your own personal research on it.

Shalom

I don’t like the liquidity personally

Entrepreneurrr:
Good evening.

If I may ask why is it that most of the bosses that spent much time in the market do not usually hold DangCem?

I no fit mentioned all the bosses but pls if u come across you can drop your input.

Thanks.

SHUT UP ABOUT ELLAH LAKES: A Masterclass in Corporate Failure and Guru Stupidity
​
I don’t want to hear one more word, one more write up, or one more "bullish" analysis of the Ellah Lakes garbage. I wrote about it few weeks ago when the price was at 3 naira now around ₦15, and most of you were too blinded by the green candles not to see the rot underneath.

​The Farm: Losses of ₦1.87 billion on a pathetic ₦146 million revenue.

​2. The "Guru" Clowns

​If your "mentor" or "stock guru" told you to buy Ellah Lakes, do yourself a favor: block them. They aren't "investors"; they are SportyBet addicts in cheap suits. While they were chasing "price appreciation" on a company that loses ₦12 for every ₦1 it earns, Okomu & Presco Oil was printing ₦202 billion in profit.

​Presco & Okomu : Real oil. Real profit. Real money.
​Ellah Lakes: High-priced paper. Real losses. Real delusion.

​3. The "Rights Offer" Scam
​To anyone who put money into the ₦235 billion Rights Offer: Congratulations, you just donated your savings to pay for the ₦1.19 billion personnel costs of a company that doesn't actually produce anything of value.

You aren't "investing in the future of agriculture"; you're paying the salaries of people who are laughing at you while they burn through ₦3 billion of cash in a few months.

​The Reality: Ellah Lakes is a shell. The leadership is a joke. And the "gurus" who praised this are frauds. If you followed them into this pit, you deserve the loss and better of playing sporty bet ...Investor Wey No dey Read

W

SohSoh:
SHUT UP ABOUT ELLAH LAKES: A Masterclass in Corporate Failure and Guru Stupidity
​
I don’t want to hear one more word, one more write up, or one more "bullish" analysis of the Ellah Lakes garbage. I wrote about it few weeks ago when the price was at 3 naira now around ₦15, and most of you were too blinded by the green candles not to see the rot underneath.

​The Farm: Losses of ₦1.87 billion on a pathetic ₦146 million revenue.

​2. The "Guru" Clowns

​If your "mentor" or "stock guru" told you to buy Ellah Lakes, do yourself a favor: block them. They aren't "investors"; they are SportyBet addicts in cheap suits. While they were chasing "price appreciation" on a company that loses ₦12 for every ₦1 it earns, Okomu & Presco Oil was printing ₦202 billion in profit.

​Presco & Okomu : Real oil. Real profit. Real money.
​Ellah Lakes: High-priced paper. Real losses. Real delusion.

​3. The "Rights Offer" Scam
​To anyone who put money into the ₦235 billion Rights Offer: Congratulations, you just donated your savings to pay for the ₦1.19 billion personnel costs of a company that doesn't actually produce anything of value.

You aren't "investing in the future of agriculture"; you're paying the salaries of people who are laughing at you while they burn through ₦3 billion of cash in a few months.

​The Reality: Ellah Lakes is a shell. The leadership is a joke. And the "gurus" who praised this are frauds. If you followed them into this pit, you deserve the loss and better of playing sporty bet ...Investor Wey No dey Read

This thr 5 tonnes Mills look like what road side welder fabricated. Make una zoom the mill picture .and look.Abi eyes dey pain me

Didn't you previously buy MTNN in the 160s as well? If so, your average price is probably much lower than 530-ish. Just so other people don't follow you blindly...

Sunrisepebble:
I’ve posted the list and my target prices for the stocks. I’m sure there are other ones but someone will have to point them out to me so I can do my research.

I own Vitafoam, Wapco MTN, Seplat, Zenith, GT and Transcorp at good average prices. I think MTNN is my surest conviction for this year, I bought quite a lot at 535. I think they can do 70+ EPS this year and pay out 50+

Freshandfitpod:
why does BUA resides in Dubai but his business is in Nigeria? I'm not getting it.

BUA Group, a Nigerian-based cement and food-producing company, has laid off about 700 truck drivers at its plant in Obu-Okpella, Edo State, after they protested the benefits they had been denied.

The affected truck drivers say a N30 billion gift was involved.

essentialone:
BUA Group, a Nigerian-based cement and food-producing company, has laid off about 700 truck drivers at its plant in Obu-Okpella, Edo State, after they protested the benefits they had been denied.

The affected truck drivers say a N30 billion gift was involved.

Drivers might be working for a third party firm

A lot of uncouth rantings against Ellah lakes. Those who bought into it know they bought with a mid to long term view in mind. People see value in stocks sometimes because of the prospects of the sector and the vision. Like Ellah, like Japaul. Some bought tantalizers and deapcap when in the Kobo range.. the demand for palm oil, palm kernel and derivatives is insatiable. Local supply can't meet it so its being imported. If Ellah pulls off the acquisition of ARPN (which it should), it will be a huge leap and transformation.. for those who don't believe in the vision, no stress. We believe. No be by force. Every Mallam to his kettle. I'm holding Ellah and Japaul. I will be patient and hold for about 5 years.

ositadima1:
A Few Thoughts on the Custodian FY25 Commentary

Thanks for sharing the Custodian FY25 walkthrough. The numbers are helpful, but I think some of the conclusions drawn from them deserve a closer look. Pulling figures from the accounts is useful, but interpretation is where the real value of analysis should come in.

The main point that stood out to me was the suggestion that Custodian may have borrowed money to fund the sharp increase in assets and investments. When you look at the actual balance sheet, that conclusion doesn’t seem to hold. Interest-bearing borrowings actually declined year-on-year, falling from roughly ₦3.4bn to under ₦1bn. So the balance-sheet expansion was clearly not debt-driven.

The jump in payables is real and significant, but payables are not the same thing as borrowing. In a group like Custodian, payables typically relate to reinsurance premiums, claims settlements, investment settlement timing and acquisition-related obligations. These are operating liabilities, not financing liabilities. They can temporarily inflate cash and financial assets, but they do not represent leverage in the traditional sense.

On the asset side, the move from about ₦407bn to over ₦1tn looks dramatic, but the story is actually visible in the accounts. Custodian consolidated acquired businesses, expanded its financial asset base significantly, and carried large timing balances from unpaid obligations. Assets and liabilities grew together, while equity increased by about ₦78bn, largely from retained earnings and some valuation reserves. That points to scale expansion, not unexplained balance-sheet risk.

The jump in quoted equity investments is also worth questioning, but it should be framed carefully. There are several plausible explanations here, consolidation of subsidiary portfolios, IFRS reclassification, or portfolio reallocation, none of which automatically imply aggressive or hidden risk-taking. It’s fair to ask for clarity, but it’s a stretch to imply borrowing without evidence.

On valuation, I also think the argument needs tighter logic. Highlighting a ~30% ROE and a low P/E, while at the same time suggesting fair value should be at or below book, creates a disconnect unless the case is explicitly that earnings quality is unsustainable. That point wasn’t fully developed, even though it’s probably the most important debate around this stock.

Overall, the numbers raised are valid, but the interpretation around leverage and funding could be stronger. Most investors can read financial statements; what differentiates good analysis is correctly classifying what the numbers actually represent and tying that back to risk and valuation in a consistent way.

From the Notes to the Financial statement, components of Trade payables that significantly increased are "Due to Customer" and "Due to Banks", both of which accounted for over ₦423 billion for 2025, and had zero entries for the previous year 2024. Which means that they are as a result of Custodian's share of acquisition of FBNQuest Merchant bank which was concluded in November 2025 (refer to the NGX publication on November 28). Banks usually have those entries in their balance sheet liabilities- "Deposits from Banks" and "Deposits from Customers".

There were some other entries under Financial Assets for 2025 that were not recorded for 2024- "Quoted equity securities" and "Loan to Customers", which again obviously are Custodian's share of acquisition of FBNQuest Merchant bank.

I was not giving an investment advice. And I tend to add NFA/DYOR on my posts

HesInMe:
Didn't you previously buy MTNN in the 160s as well? If so, your average price is probably much lower than 530-ish. Just so other people don't follow you blindly...

Does anyone have information on the reason why the UBA rights issue that was done in August has since not been concluded and shares issued?

Top stocks that made gains this past week

https://youtube.com/shorts/UhH6ZJPL9AU?feature=share

I know. I'm just giving more context to your MTNN bullishness. The real question is, Would you still be as bullish if your average price were 535? Or 600+, where it currently trades?

Sunrisepebble:
I was not giving an investment advice. And I tend to add NFA/DYOR on my posts