₦airaland Forum

When is TIP going to allocate the right issue to their customers' trading account

Coolcash1:
Glad I made this decision.

Funds invested in gold and silver. Made huge returns I won’t have in years on NGSE.

Be a smart investor and not a dummy that confines himself only to a single market. Capital flows to where returns are guaranteed and risk rewarding. Practice portfolio rebalancing and asset diversification.

FYI: it’s still not late to join the precious metals bullish run as it’s about gathering momentum for another leg up…Silver expected to hit $500/ounce whilst it’s big brother projected to end the year at $8000/ounce.

Enough said!

As long as it is not paper profit

Top gainers and losers at midday

Nahco making us proud

KarlTom:
My territories are numerous...

Okay, good luck.
But too many territories may lack adequate defence mechanisms.

currentprice:
Bro. over the last 2 years, almost every stock has been a winner. With so much money flowing into the market, you could pick almost any stock and make 200–300% returns , making all of us feel like market gurus

we are waiting for the 2025 year-end audited results to get a clearer picture of what next. But based on Q3 performance, these 3 stocks look very promising on the bedsheed and could do wonders going forward

Aradel , Transcorp and Dangote sugar.

u might ask why the DS but let wait and see how things be going forward. before then, take a look at the enterprise value "^{valuation of the whole bussiness}" instead of the usual metrics you’re familiar with. dt could give you a better idea of what am seeing..

Let me focus strictly on Dangote Sugar, because once you strip away market momentum, the numbers tell a much more constrained story.

Starting with operating performance. In Q3-2025, Dangote Sugar generated about ₦43bn in operating profit (EBIT), while finance costs were roughly ₦30bn in the same quarter. That immediately tells you something important: about 70% of operating earnings was absorbed by interest expense. So even before talking about growth or valuation, the business is operating under heavy financial pressure.

If you annualise Q3 operating performance conservatively, EBIT comes to roughly ₦170bn. Applying a normal Nigerian corporate tax rate of 30%, normalized after-tax operating profit (NOPAT) is approximately ₦119bn. That is the sustainable earning power of the operations before reinvestment and financing effects.

Now look at what those earnings are generated on. As of September 2025, total assets stood at about ₦1.02 trillion, with cash of roughly ₦80bn. Removing cash gives operating assets of approximately ₦936bn. When you divide normalized NOPAT by invested capital, you get an operating return:

₦119bn ÷ ₦936bn ≈ 12.7% ROIC

That number matters only when you compare it to the cost of capital.

To estimate the cost of capital, start with equity. Nigeria’s long-term risk-free rate is around 15%. Add an equity risk premium of about 10%, and apply a beta of roughly 1.1 for a leveraged consumer industrial business. That gives a cost of equity of:

15% + (1.1 × 10%) ≈ 26%

Now look at debt. Based on reported finance costs and outstanding borrowings, Dangote Sugar’s pre-tax cost of debt is roughly 18–20%. After the tax shield, that comes down to about 13%.

Given the company’s capital structure, roughly 70% debt and 30% equity in economic terms, the weighted average cost of capital works out to:

(30% × 26%) + (70% × 13%) ≈ 17% WACC

This comparison is critical. Dangote Sugar’s ROIC of ~12–13% is below its WACC of ~17%. That means, on a purely economic basis, the business is not currently creating value with growth. At best, it is treading water.

Growth also requires reinvestment. Even assuming a modest 4% long-term growth rate, and using the current ROIC level, the reinvestment requirement is:

Reinvestment rate ≈ g ÷ ROIC
≈ 4% ÷ 12.7% ≈ 31%

Applied to NOPAT, that means Dangote Sugar must reinvest roughly ₦37bn every year just to sustain low-single-digit growth. That reinvestment comes before any free cash is available to capital providers.

After reinvestment, free cash flow to the firm is approximately:

₦119bn − ₦37bn ≈ ₦82bn

That is enterprise-level cash flow, before debt service. And this is where the balance sheet becomes decisive.

Financial liabilities are still above ₦736bn, while cash is under ₦80bn, leaving net debt of roughly ₦650bn. With this level of leverage, a significant portion of enterprise cash flow is structurally redirected to lenders. The Q3 interest burden already demonstrates this reality in practice.

Cash flow confirms the picture. Despite reporting profits, operating cash flow remains weak and at times negative, meaning the business is still not self-funding. It continues to rely on refinancing, short-term borrowing, and working-capital movements rather than internally generated surplus cash.

This is why enterprise value on its own can be misleading here. Yes, EV captures the whole business, but when ROIC is below WACC and leverage is high, enterprise value does not automatically translate into equity value creation. The economics are constrained by financing, not optics.

On backward integration, the financial statements are very clear. Biological assets are about ₦18–19bn, which is less than 2% of total assets, and that figure has not grown meaningfully year-on-year. Inventories, at around ₦130bn, are still dominated by imported raw sugar and refined stock. Gross margins remain around 19–20%, which suggests that local sourcing has not yet reduced FX exposure or input costs in a material way.

If backward integration were already working at scale, we would expect to see ROIC rising, margins expanding, or operating cash flow improving. None of those shifts are visible yet in the numbers. For now, backward integration remains a long-term strategic promise, not a current economic driver.

So when Dangote Sugar is highlighted based on Q3 performance or enterprise value, I think the math needs to be acknowledged. The business is operating with ROIC below WACC, heavy reinvestment needs, and a leveraged balance sheet. Any upside case is therefore macro-dependent, on lower interest rates, FX stability, and time, rather than already embedded in the operating fundamentals.

That distinction is important if we’re being honest about what the numbers are actually saying.

Numbers first, narratives later.
-- ositadima1

KarlTom:
Okay. Let's ask ourselves what is causing the delay in commencement of mining?

It's definitely NOT funding because JAPAUL received ₦20bn in Private funding and has access to another $20bn from GEM (Global Emerging Markets)

So why are they seeking to raise N500b via offerings?
What are the conditions for accessing $20b from the so called GEM! I even doubt that just one company can be borrowed that much

ositadima1:
Let me focus strictly on Dangote Sugar, because once you strip away market momentum, the numbers tell a much more constrained story.

Starting with operating performance. In Q3-2025, Dangote Sugar generated about ₦43bn in operating profit (EBIT), while finance costs were roughly ₦30bn in the same quarter. That immediately tells you something important: about 70% of operating earnings was absorbed by interest expense. So even before talking about growth or valuation, the business is operating under heavy financial pressure.

If you annualise Q3 operating performance conservatively, EBIT comes to roughly ₦170bn. Applying a normal Nigerian corporate tax rate of 30%, normalized after-tax operating profit (NOPAT) is approximately ₦119bn. That is the sustainable earning power of the operations before reinvestment and financing effects.

Now look at what those earnings are generated on. As of September 2025, total assets stood at about ₦1.02 trillion, with cash of roughly ₦80bn. Removing cash gives operating assets of approximately ₦936bn. When you divide normalized NOPAT by invested capital, you get an operating return:

₦119bn ÷ ₦936bn ≈ 12.7% ROIC

That number matters only when you compare it to the cost of capital.

To estimate the cost of capital, start with equity. Nigeria’s long-term risk-free rate is around 15%. Add an equity risk premium of about 10%, and apply a beta of roughly 1.1 for a leveraged consumer industrial business. That gives a cost of equity of:

15% + (1.1 × 10%) ≈ 26%

Now look at debt. Based on reported finance costs and outstanding borrowings, Dangote Sugar’s pre-tax cost of debt is roughly 18–20%. After the tax shield, that comes down to about 13%.

Given the company’s capital structure, roughly 70% debt and 30% equity in economic terms, the weighted average cost of capital works out to:

(30% × 26%) + (70% × 13%) ≈ 17% WACC

This comparison is critical. Dangote Sugar’s ROIC of ~12–13% is below its WACC of ~17%. That means, on a purely economic basis, the business is not currently creating value with growth. At best, it is treading water.

Growth also requires reinvestment. Even assuming a modest 4% long-term growth rate, and using the current ROIC level, the reinvestment requirement is:

Reinvestment rate ≈ g ÷ ROIC
≈ 4% ÷ 12.7% ≈ 31%

Applied to NOPAT, that means Dangote Sugar must reinvest roughly ₦37bn every year just to sustain low-single-digit growth. That reinvestment comes before any free cash is available to capital providers.

After reinvestment, free cash flow to the firm is approximately:

₦119bn − ₦37bn ≈ ₦82bn

That is enterprise-level cash flow, before debt service. And this is where the balance sheet becomes decisive.

Financial liabilities are still above ₦736bn, while cash is under ₦80bn, leaving net debt of roughly ₦650bn. With this level of leverage, a significant portion of enterprise cash flow is structurally redirected to lenders. The Q3 interest burden already demonstrates this reality in practice.

Cash flow confirms the picture. Despite reporting profits, operating cash flow remains weak and at times negative, meaning the business is still not self-funding. It continues to rely on refinancing, short-term borrowing, and working-capital movements rather than internally generated surplus cash.

This is why enterprise value on its own can be misleading here. Yes, EV captures the whole business, but when ROIC is below WACC and leverage is high, enterprise value does not automatically translate into equity value creation. The economics are constrained by financing, not optics.

On backward integration, the financial statements are very clear. Biological assets are about ₦18–19bn, which is less than 2% of total assets, and that figure has not grown meaningfully year-on-year. Inventories, at around ₦130bn, are still dominated by imported raw sugar and refined stock. Gross margins remain around 19–20%, which suggests that local sourcing has not yet reduced FX exposure or input costs in a material way.

If backward integration were already working at scale, we would expect to see ROIC rising, margins expanding, or operating cash flow improving. None of those shifts are visible yet in the numbers. For now, backward integration remains a long-term strategic promise, not a current economic driver.

So when Dangote Sugar is highlighted based on Q3 performance or enterprise value, I think the math needs to be acknowledged. The business is operating with ROIC below WACC, heavy reinvestment needs, and a leveraged balance sheet. Any upside case is therefore macro-dependent, on lower interest rates, FX stability, and time, rather than already embedded in the operating fundamentals.

That distinction is important if we’re being honest about what the numbers are actually saying.

Numbers first, narratives later.
-- ositadima1

Brilliant presentation, I am highly impressed

mikeapollo:
Abeg oooo! Na jeje I dey ooo.
I just appreciated you a few days ago; I like your strategy as per Ellah.

Yes, Oando is huge in my portfolio for the long term.
I no go commot from there even if you bash me.

Currently riding the Deapcap cruise after previously jumping out prematurely

Enjoy

awesomeJ:
Too early for you to make wrong conclusions.

Anyone who was preaching hoarding dollars in 2025 was clearly inexperienced. It's a simple fact, you seeing a derrogation there is purely your opinion.

Are you aware of the purpose and how long (time horizon) for which the person is holding the dollars?.
What would you say if for instance, the person is hoarding the dollars to pay future school fees in 2030 and it gets to N1,800 by then?
Nobody can predict with certainty, hence no one should boast or sound condescending or derogatory

mikeapollo:
Are you aware of the purpose and how long (time horizon) for which the person is holding the dollars.
What would you say if for instance, the person is hoarding the dollars to pay future school fees in 20230 and it gets to N1,800 by then?
Nobody can predict with certainty, hence no one should boast or sound condescending or derogatory

I think the argument should be the reason for the dollar coming down based on the people that believed it was not achievable then.
Is it being defended or it's just fundamental which was the basis of arguments then.

Personally, would you rather bet on Dollar or against the dollar today.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1uaow3zWtALGfVdOvsWrww

Midday trading update on the NGX.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grvM9UYTMV8

Midday trading update on the NGX

emmanuelewumi:
Brilliant presentation, I am highly impressed

Finally

This is already a good year.

It's going to be an even better year for everyone.

crownprince2017:
I think the argument should be the reason for the dollar coming down based on the people that believed it was not achievable then.
Is it being defended or it's just fundamental which was the basis of arguments then.

Personally, would you rather bet on Dollar or against the dollar today.

It would depend on the purpose and the time horizon.
In the short-term, the dollar is not expected to be too strong because of some domestic issues in the US, geopolitics etc
In the long run, I would favour the dollar as the naira may be affected by various factors e.g. if US raises their interest rates, if govt revenue or oil price/volume goes down, which may force govt to devalue, socio-economic instability, etc

jonnysessy:
Ginalex, this your smile ehh. You don hammer with NAHCO. I dey the same bus with you. But, i am tempted to take some profit. I will have to wait for their corporate action first. My fingers to dey itch me since i started this online trade(before i was using analogue broker, i rarely sell then). I sold away the folowing for little profit, now e dey pain me:
1. Custodian
2. May & Baker
3. Guinness
4. Mansard
5. Fidson
6. FBNH
7. Julius Berger
8 Bua food

Nobody has ever lost money taking profits

There is no better time to take some profits than now that the index is doing well and market looks bullish...most especially if its your trading portfolio..

Its better to start scaling out gradually now than waiting to rush out when the bears arrive

mikeapollo:
Are you aware of the purpose and how long (time horizon) for which the person is holding the dollars?.
What would you say if for instance, the person is hoarding the dollars to pay future school fees in 2030 and it gets to N1,800 by then?
Nobody can predict with certainty, hence no one should boast or sound condescending or derogatory

cALLING out someone's factual naivety is simply in their own best interest. condescending is only your perception.
The picture you painted is irrelevant given that the guy didn't say he was buying USD for his own obligations, he simply was ignorantly bearish on the currency and advising people to join his bandwagon with no basis.

mikeapollo:
It would depend on the purpose and the time horizon.
In the short-term, the dollar is not expected to be too strong because of some domestic issues in the US, geopolitics etc
In the long run, I would favour the dollar as the naira may be affected by various factors e.g. if US raises their interest rates, if govt revenue or oil price/volume goes down, which may force govt to devalue, socio-economic instability, etc

What are the chances of those if happening?

crownprince2017:
What are the chances of those if happening?

The chances are high.
Nigeria operates a less diversified, import dependent economy, so it is prone to revenue and hence exchange rate fluctuations

Abeg our people who are using ARMONE how una dey take manage do trade l have not been seeing market bids and market offers since Friday

By pushing NGXGROUP to N113, the average broker has gotten about N200m towards, their capitalization target.
If they push it to N200 they will get additional N500m each.

mikeapollo:
The chances are high.
Nigeria operates a less diversified, import dependent economy, so it is prone to revenue and hence exchange rate fluctuations

again, you stand to lose big if you don't update this your outdated information.

what was the balance of payment in 2022, what was it in 2025? you want to use 2022 informationto trade in 2025, and you expect to much success??

awesomeJ:
cALLING out someone's factual naivety is simply in their own best interest. condescending is only your perception.
The picture you painted is irrelevant given that the guy didn't say he was buying USD for his own obligations, he simply was ignorantly bearish on the currency and advising people to join his bandwagon with no basis.

This is not the end yet of currency movements; things can change a few months from now. Let's be circumspect in the choice of words, especially when it is derogatory.
Nobody knows it all. NSEMPA is not IMF nor WB boardroom..

The nature of financial markets is such that sometimes, you can't even use January numbers to trade in February.

If you look at a company's number today and it has a 3x PE, you see a discount and want to buy, if after 4 quarterly results, you fail to check the current numbers, but just prefer to stick to your outdated knowledge, how would you not get dumped on at 30x PE?

mikeapollo:
It would depend on the purpose and the time horizon.
In the short-term, the dollar is not expected to be too strong because of some domestic issues in the US, geopolitics etc
In the long run, I would favour the dollar as the naira may be affected by various factors e.g. if US raises their interest rates, if govt revenue or oil price/volume goes down, which may force govt to devalue, socio-economic instability, etc

The days of the Naira always falling against the Dollar are gone. Over the next few decades we are going to witness strengthening of the Naira or stability against the Dollar

sterlingD:
Abeg our people who are using ARMONE how una dey take manage do trade l have not been seeing market bids and market offers since Friday

Mehn, it is annoying. I use other app to check the bids sha

KarlTom:
Okay. Let's ask ourselves what is causing the delay in commencement of mining?

It's definitely NOT funding because JAPAUL received ₦20bn in Private funding and has access to another $20bn from GEM (Global Emerging Markets)

$20m... Drawdown over 3 year period i.e 2024 to 2027

Dug up below

Lagos, Nigeria, August 15th, 2024 - Japaul Gold and Ventures plc. (JAPAULG.O.NL) announced today that it has secured a capital commitment of $20 million in the form of a Share Subscription Agreement (SSF) from Gem Global Yield LLC SCS (GGY).

Under the terms of the agreement, Japaul Gold will be able to draw down funds by issuing equity shares to GGY for a three-year period. The Company will control the timing of such draw downs and has no minimum draw down obligation.

Japaul Gold is previously known for providing offshore support services to the oil and gas industry and in the Nigerian oil and gas sector. It is now into the exploration and production of gold, tin, and copper among other critical minerals.

This $20 million proceeds from GEM's commitment to complete ongoing mine acquisitions and begin production of gold, copper, lead and zinc mines at Eti-Oni, in Osun State; Northern Nigeria, and other gold mines at Taruga District in Taraba State, Nigeria.

"We are very excited by the GEM commitment as it offers opportunities to scale up our operations and efforts in engaging in the global market space," stated Mr. Jegede Paul, the Chairman of Japaul Gold.

mikeapollo:
This is not the end yet of currency movements; things can change a few months from now. Let's be circumspect in the choice of words, especially when it is derogatory.
Nobody knows it all. NSEMPA is not IMF nor WB boardroom..

You should just calm down and learn what you might be ignorant of. That's the real proof of your position that noboy knows it all. All this talk of trying to justify someone's ignorance in the name of your perceived derogation serves near nil purpose.

awesomeJ:
again, you stand to lose big if you don't update this your outdated information.

what was the balance of payment in 2022, what was it in 2025? you want to use 2022 informationto trade in 2025, and you expect to much success[b][/b]??

So your horizon is only from 2022-2025? And that explains all you know about the economic history of Nigeria?
You seem not to know that Nigeria may even ''do everything right'' and the naira may still depreciate against the dollar because other actions/initiatives can be taken by US govt which are not under the control of FGN.

I can see that your choice of words about the other person is always in a particular direction.....
.
I am done with you on this matter.
Wish you best of luck

nosa2:
The days of the Naira always falling against the Dollar are gone. Over the next few decades we are going to witness strengthening of the Naira or stability against the Dollar

AMEN! AMEN!! AMEN!!!
It will be to my advantage if it happens.
But I have listened to thousands of such prayers/assurances before and I recall that Alh. Dangote even warned that FGN should do everything possible so that dollar does not get to N500.

mikeapollo:
So your horizon is only from 2022-2025? And that explains all you know about the economic history of Nigeria?
You seem not to know that Nigeria may even ''do everything right'' and the naira may still depreciate against the dollar because other actions/initiatives can be taken by US govt which are not under the control of FGN.

I can see that your choice of words about the other person is always in a particular direction.....
.
I am done with you on this matter.
Wish you best of luck

No thanks, you need the luck more, i never need any luck.

you can hoard all the dollars you want, it's your money.

omo
dis one na public service message

as una dey read dis post, make u clear eye pay attention
we une dey read dis investos from diff tine zones dey enter d region to buy the emtpy-hen
dem dey code d entrace wid small products wey dey inside dia conglomerate business group...buh d real target dey d empty-hen...d reason dem no go disclose till d fat lady sings na not to push up d price to 2000 like a push up bra
d fat lady go sing looud dis year
dem dey come frm d east nd d west
france uk india china dem go find over the empty hen dis year
800 price go seem like a bag rice from 2005
and also d dark is still comin....but dis one na confam jist....see d volumes naw naw...
i dey give u platinum gist
lyk i dey say before...in dis game...ur a soldier na me b d genaral..we no b mates
i dey try to uplift my peopp dazzalll....if u like go buy lobbish..
isorite...see u in couple of months when the empty hen cross 1200...by may las las if not sooner