₦airaland Forum

Itzlinda:
Drop update now Boss. We will like to learn from you.

With Faith, the impossible becomes possible, even the beneficiar(ies) can be shocked 😁

awesomeJ:
They won't have to sell though, the paper value of the stocks would count towards the recapitalizion target. As per what the chairman of Apt Securities said in an interview, he's also on the board of the SEC.

If it's like that. They don't have problem then. That's their specialty; Market makers

ASI fit even touch 200k

chimex38:
If it's like that. They don't have problem then. That's their specialty; Market makers

ASI fit even touch 200k

ASI should hit 200k in H1.

Ahaji's listing could make the timeline faster.

emmanuelewumi:
Maybe sha. Nahco is a stock that has always disappointed people who want a drastic pullback. If it pullback by 10%, it will rise by 20% within a short time yet they don't have a Market Marker

I assume they take a percentage of ticket prices

Deapcap in a wave 4 correction, breaking below 6.3 low towards 5.2 (wave a) is more probable than breaking above 11 high for now....

sterlingD:
Abeg our people who are using ARMONE how una dey take manage do trade l have not been seeing market bids and market offers since Friday

Only through desktop. The app signalled a downtrend in the quality of their services. Been their customer since 2010 and it was mostly a good run until they forced port everybody to the new app. Shiny but not as functional. You are even forced to credit the app instead of your brokerage account. Transfers don't reflect for days if you send money to your brokerage account. Looks like it is only one aunty that replies all customer care mails. I am sure they cannot even deny something is up with them.

PuristForest:
Deapcap in a wave 4 correction, breaking below 6.3 low towards 5.2 (wave a) is more probable than breaking above 11 high for now....

Thank you.

So we can wait to pick @ sub 5.50

No vex. I didn't realize my tone was that sharp. You said NGXGROUP was being "pushed" (which sounded like manipulation, or at least aggressive marketing), so I asked who was doing the deed.

There might be another explanation: Investors positioning for higher market highs (which is good for the company) and near-term major earnings catalysts and buzz (2026 IPOs of Dangote Refinery and maybe Moniepoint).

awesomeJ:
Your phone doesn't have Google?

Did you seriously expect an explanation with this kind of tone?

You lack information and you feel this tone will somehow magically help you get it?

Lol

ositadima1:
Let me focus strictly on Dangote Sugar, because once you strip away market momentum, the numbers tell a much more constrained story.

Starting with operating performance. In Q3-2025, Dangote Sugar generated about ₦43bn in operating profit (EBIT), while finance costs were roughly ₦30bn in the same quarter. That immediately tells you something important: about 70% of operating earnings was absorbed by interest expense. So even before talking about growth or valuation, the business is operating under heavy financial pressure.

If you annualise Q3 operating performance conservatively, EBIT comes to roughly ₦170bn. Applying a normal Nigerian corporate tax rate of 30%, normalized after-tax operating profit (NOPAT) is approximately ₦119bn. That is the sustainable earning power of the operations before reinvestment and financing effects.

Now look at what those earnings are generated on. As of September 2025, total assets stood at about ₦1.02 trillion, with cash of roughly ₦80bn. Removing cash gives operating assets of approximately ₦936bn. When you divide normalized NOPAT by invested capital, you get an operating return:

₦119bn ÷ ₦936bn ≈ 12.7% ROIC

That number matters only when you compare it to the cost of capital.

To estimate the cost of capital, start with equity. Nigeria’s long-term risk-free rate is around 15%. Add an equity risk premium of about 10%, and apply a beta of roughly 1.1 for a leveraged consumer industrial business. That gives a cost of equity of:

15% + (1.1 × 10%) ≈ 26%

Now look at debt. Based on reported finance costs and outstanding borrowings, Dangote Sugar’s pre-tax cost of debt is roughly 18–20%. After the tax shield, that comes down to about 13%.

Given the company’s capital structure, roughly 70% debt and 30% equity in economic terms, the weighted average cost of capital works out to:

(30% × 26%) + (70% × 13%) ≈ 17% WACC

This comparison is critical. Dangote Sugar’s ROIC of ~12–13% is below its WACC of ~17%. That means, on a purely economic basis, the business is not currently creating value with growth. At best, it is treading water.

Growth also requires reinvestment. Even assuming a modest 4% long-term growth rate, and using the current ROIC level, the reinvestment requirement is:

Reinvestment rate ≈ g ÷ ROIC
≈ 4% ÷ 12.7% ≈ 31%

Applied to NOPAT, that means Dangote Sugar must reinvest roughly ₦37bn every year just to sustain low-single-digit growth. That reinvestment comes before any free cash is available to capital providers.

After reinvestment, free cash flow to the firm is approximately:

₦119bn − ₦37bn ≈ ₦82bn

That is enterprise-level cash flow, before debt service. And this is where the balance sheet becomes decisive.

Financial liabilities are still above ₦736bn, while cash is under ₦80bn, leaving net debt of roughly ₦650bn. With this level of leverage, a significant portion of enterprise cash flow is structurally redirected to lenders. The Q3 interest burden already demonstrates this reality in practice.

Cash flow confirms the picture. Despite reporting profits, operating cash flow remains weak and at times negative, meaning the business is still not self-funding. It continues to rely on refinancing, short-term borrowing, and working-capital movements rather than internally generated surplus cash.

This is why enterprise value on its own can be misleading here. Yes, EV captures the whole business, but when ROIC is below WACC and leverage is high, enterprise value does not automatically translate into equity value creation. The economics are constrained by financing, not optics.

On backward integration, the financial statements are very clear. Biological assets are about ₦18–19bn, which is less than 2% of total assets, and that figure has not grown meaningfully year-on-year. Inventories, at around ₦130bn, are still dominated by imported raw sugar and refined stock. Gross margins remain around 19–20%, which suggests that local sourcing has not yet reduced FX exposure or input costs in a material way.

If backward integration were already working at scale, we would expect to see ROIC rising, margins expanding, or operating cash flow improving. None of those shifts are visible yet in the numbers. For now, backward integration remains a long-term strategic promise, not a current economic driver.

So when Dangote Sugar is highlighted based on Q3 performance or enterprise value, I think the math needs to be acknowledged. The business is operating with ROIC below WACC, heavy reinvestment needs, and a leveraged balance sheet. Any upside case is therefore macro-dependent, on lower interest rates, FX stability, and time, rather than already embedded in the operating fundamentals.

That distinction is important if we’re being honest about what the numbers are actually saying.

Numbers first, narratives later.
-- ositadima1

Well Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

Follow The Money

HesInMe:
No vex. I didn't realize my tone was that sharp. You said NGXGROUP was being "pushed" (which sounded like manipulation, or at least aggressive marketing), so I asked who was doing the deed.

There might be another explanation: Investors positioning for higher market highs (which is good for the company) and near-term major earnings catalysts and buzz (2026 IPOs of Dangote Refinery and maybe Moniepoint).

You're right.
But to be practical, let SEC say tomorrow that they only want cash for the capitalization like CBN did by saying they didn't want retained earnings.

If sec said anything like that, I guarantee you would get the stock at 20% below CMP in less than a week.


You don't have to agree, but I speak from what I know as one of the most active participants in this market.

Sometimes I'm wrong though, but you don't need to be right Everytime to win in this game.

Even a 60% win rate is sustainably successful.

If you have 90% or higher, you will be incredibly successful.

https://thenationonlineng.net/new-luxury-hotel-boosts-nahcos-earnings-outlook/

Maybe this has a hand in the sudden rise in NAHCO.

Shalom428:
LolWell Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

Really, @ numbers are merely academic exercise?


Numbers are not merely academic exercise in business and investment if you want to build a long term sustainable value and wealth through business or investment

Shalom428:
LolWell Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

This message will not age well.

emmanuelewumi:
Maybe sha. Nahco is a stock that has always disappointed people who want a drastic pullback. If it pullback by 10%, it will rise by 20% within a short time yet they don't have a Market Marker

If they don't have market maker, then how is the price fluctuation been managed?

emmaodet:
If they don't have market maker, then how is the price fluctuation been managed?

It is one of the stocks in NGX Pension index, pension fund managers have been taking positions in the stock

Shalom428:
LolWell Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

Benjamin Graham — 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.'

The Gist on Deapcap...Enjoy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBmjQC5Afuk

emmanuelewumi:
Really, @ numbers are merely academic exercise?


Numbers are not merely academic exercise in business and investment if you want to build a long term sustainable value and wealth through business or investment

To be fair the gentleman did say "numbers on some stocks" and he is obviously right:

Deepcap, NCR, eunisell and the likes.


You agree numbers on them are at polar opposites to what the market trades them for.


He's not disputing your point, you're the one who seem to have read his post out of context sir.

awesomeJ:
To be fair the gentleman did say "numbers on some stocks" and he is obviously right:

Deepcap, NCR, eunisell and the likes.


You agree numbers on them are at polar opposites to what the market trades them for.


He's not disputing your point, you're the one who seem to have read his post out of context sir.

I said it is not an academic exercise if the aim is to build a long term sustainable wealth and value through business or investment

pluto09:
https://thenationonlineng.net/nigerias-foreign-reserves-hit-49bn/

This makes sense. The 30-day moving average has been growing by over $100m daily for about 10 days now.

We just might hit $50bn this quarter 😎

emmanuelewumi:
I said it is not an academic exercise if the aim is to build a long term sustainable wealth and value through business or investment

I still think you guys are speaking to different points that are both true.

I don't think his statement disputes yours sir.

Shalom428:
LolWell Done Brov! I'm a number guy , but lately I realised playing the number game on NGX will only make you miss a lot of opportunities.

If we were to go by present numbers, Ellalakes will be worthless , it should be trading in negation. Numbers on some stocks on NGX are merely academic exercise.

Run the number on OANDO and juxtaposed it with the present SP. Numbers alone are not enough. If we were to go buy numbers Stanbic IBTC and GTCO should be 200+.

I don't want to write too much epistle. Numbers alone is not enough, people factor in sentiments, projections and what they know that you don't know before taking positions.

Beyond numbers , I believe, e get why CP mentioned sugar in his top 3 , beyond numbers, e get why I put am in my top 7 . Yorubas used to say , eni to mo way , lo mo we. Na who Sabi way , Sabi book

Once again, well done brov

Shalom

Shalom428:
Follow The Money

Yes, you are right on the numbers thing. It's usually irrelevant on some stocks on NGX especially in the short term.

Those with favourable numbers move slowly and organically proving that numbers works.

The solution Is to find the stocks that follow the numbers and use numbers for them and apply other parameters for others as the case may be.

The perception problem also comes in play when we compare with those that defy the numbers; they move more exponentially.
Making one look silly for sticking with the numbers(despite improvement)

Those with numbers don't usually beat inflation in the short term, they do when the compounding effect materialises in few years.
The discipline is having the patience until that tipping point and then have relative stability.

But unfortunately, our double digit high inflation and other economic challenges esp on necessities, providing ones own social amenities, etc makes it common sense to just follow the money.

#On numbers
We don't have depth yet on NGX. So much money chasing few stocks and liquidity; even the dead ones will rise again.

Also our economy hasn't been stable yet on so many fronts for easy predictions and forecast. Hence so many forecasts might dissapoint.

Our import dependent economy also renders the numbers a bit redundant since internal businesses largely depends on external economy and international markets happenings to opererate.


Going forward,
-if the tax issues are harmonized,
-forex becomes less fluctuating,
-We have an export trade surplus,
-Improve self sufficiency gap in major raw materials input for industries,
-More market depth- listing of companies that highly correlates NGX input with our GDP
-Improved spread, float and liquidity on some stocks,

then we will have much more aligned stocks whose numbers closely predict forecasts on an economy with little impact from internal and external shocks.

But for now, it works if applied to stocks that align +vely with it.
The situation is to identify those that are more tilted towards the numbers by the MM.
and apply others metrics like TA, sentiment,etc heavily for other stocks.

awesomeJ:
This makes sense. The 30-day moving average has been growing by over $100m daily for about 10 days now.

We just might hit $50bn this quarter 😎

It's poverty mentality. Stocking up money while needs remain unmet and poverty runs amok

No wonder, and with this circular i saw it will hit new highs with other large cap stocks. Dont know how true this circular is though..

But they must have MM i believe.

emmanuelewumi:
It is one of the stocks in NGX Pension index, pension fund managers have been taking positions in the stock

nosa2:
This message will not age well.

It is the season we are in
Make una sha remember to book profit whether number or no number