₦airaland Forum

Sunrisepebble:
I think so too. I’ve used an EV/Ebitda of 7x for the FY result which is what the Chinese company used to value the business when they bought it.
Don’t forget the knew capacity coming onstream though, an extra 3.5mt per annum. I’ve heard they’ve almost completed it so that should drive growth very soon, as well as the Chinese’ operational efficiency.

That chinese efficiency plus the chinese captive market ( large construction companies) is something to look forward to.

Sunrisepebble:
I think people expect too much RE: dividend sometimes.
They’ve paid out 60%, and they have expansion plans. And unlike Bua and Dangcem they don’t like to take on debt, so it will be funded by internal cash flows

Please confirm if they actually paid an interim dividend of N4 per share

Krisuba:
Don't even know. The performance is wonderful. Sterling is just zoomed passed!!!

I think it's my northern brother driving it up.

The ngx hype is going on all over Nigeria. Muslims prefer to buy Islamic compliant investments. I think that's what is driving the rally...

They come to ngx because market is going up and jaiz bank is kinda popular in the north

megawealth01:
💯

My only fear in JAPAUL is jegede

You seem to have fear for CEOs of some companies listed in NGX.
I was thinking it is only Wale

I fear cowboys because they fit disappoint you without looking back

mikeapollo:
You seem to have fear for CEOs of some companies listed in NGX.
I was thinking it is only Wale

Krisuba:
Ya. You can't predict the market right always!! Locos confidence at times eehh!!

Calm down oooo.
The whales are finding the garagara interesting.
I will buy Japaulgold with the whales at 3.00-3.20 in the next 14 days.

They will use this opportunity to sell all their holdings into your strength then descend the stock price back to 2.50 and begin the next accumulation stage.

We are done.I will be back again when I sight the fresh work of whales in Japaulgold.

This market is too sweet and it is indeed a school to attend

No one knows it all.

Avoid excessive certainty - the stock market thrives on uncertainty. That unpredictability is precisely where opportunity and profit come from.
At times, the way you present your views sounds as though you are the one driving the market or own the NGX. You know I pay close attention to your analysis, and statements delivered with that level of finality can unintentionally create the wrong impression.
Let’s remain analytical, not absolute.

Selah.

Stockpromoter:
Mercy whether you like it or not, Japaulgold is being controlled by the whales.
It is not about how a price moves,it's all about how it ends.
If whales are still distributing,price will still fell today.
You too like to highlight on a move of a stock.Take am easy oooo

After distribution,there will be psychological support,then strong support which is bottom price.

When a stock bottoms, accumulations starts again but I will rather wait to enter at confirmation.

It will take the whales 2 weeks to complete accumulations after distribution.

I don't know why you are rushing.

Japaulgold na our illustrious son.

As PETERICHY don comot from JAPAUL, we are now on FULL BID...

JEGEDE please be kind this time

I heard they had commenced even before the announcement

robobo:
I thought they just commenced the new line with the recent announcement?

mikeapollo:
You seem to have fear for CEOs of some companies listed in NGX.
I was thinking it is only Wale

Experience is the best teacher

They did in Q1

emmanuelewumi:
Please confirm if they actually paid an interim dividend of N4 per share

emmanuelewumi:
Please confirm if they actually paid an interim dividend of N4 per share

N4 paid as special interim dividend last year

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43853_LAFARGE_AFRICA_PLC.-CORPORATE_DISCLOSURE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2025.pdf

Sunrisepebble:
Someone mentioned it to me here. What is driving the share price performance ?

Ethical investing, cum religious sentiments.

robobo:
Please share

Sunrisepebble:
I think so too. I’ve used an EV/Ebitda of 7x for the FY result which is what the Chinese company used to value the business when they bought it.
Don’t forget the knew capacity coming onstream though, an extra 3.5mt per annum. I’ve heard they’ve almost completed it so that should drive growth very soon, as well as the Chinese’ operational efficiency.

Revenue hit ₦1.066 trillion, up 53% year-on-year. Normalized EBIT came to ₦387.9 billion at a 36.4% margin, EBITDA was ₦422.7 billion (39.6% margin), and profit after tax was ₦273.1 billion. The company is sitting on ₦388 billion in cash against only ₦166 billion in borrowings, a net cash position of ₦222 billion, and has proposed a ₦6/share dividend, five times last year's payout. These are not the numbers of a struggling cement company.

To value WAPCO properly I used a Damodaran-aligned DCF, which means starting from what the business actually earns operationally rather than headline profit. After stripping out non-recurring other income, the PPE impairment reversal, and the ₦30.2 billion finance income earned on cash deposits (which I account for separately), normalized NOPAT, net operating profit after the 33.6% effective tax rate, comes to ₦257.5 billion. The next step is invested capital. Lafarge Africa runs with structurally negative working capital of ₦103 billion, meaning customers pay before the company settles its suppliers. Combined with PPE of ₦448.6 billion, total invested capital is ₦347.1 billion. Dividing NOPAT by invested capital gives a Return on Invested Capital of 74.2%, which was 75.1% in 2024. For context, most global cement companies operate at 10–20% ROIC. Every naira reinvested in this business creates significant value.

For the discount rate, I used a WACC of 25.6%, built from a risk-free rate of 18.5% (Nigerian T-Bill yield), Nigeria's equity risk premium of 10.5% (Damodaran), and an unlevered cement sector beta of 0.72. The company's near-zero leverage keeps WACC close to the cost of equity. This is a high discount rate but it reflects the Nigerian macro reality, not a criticism of the business.

Free cash flow to the firm in 2025 was ₦88.1 billion on a reported basis, suppressed by a ₦129.6 billion working capital absorption as rapid revenue growth caused inventories and receivables to balloon. Normalized for a more sustainable working capital trajectory, FCFF is approximately ₦187.8 billion or ₦11.65 per share. Running a three-phase DCF on conservative assumptions, revenue growing at 20–25% decaying to 5% terminal growth, EBIT margins compressing gradually from 37% to 30%, produced an initial intrinsic value of approximately ₦123.5 per share (Base Case). Against the current market price of ₦210, that initial model flagged the stock as roughly 41% overvalued.

However, two factors I subsequently incorporated change the picture materially. The first is the near-complete 3.5 million tonne capacity expansion. Against current installed capacity of ~10.5mt, this is a 33% increase in one move. At a conservative 60% utilisation in year one, that's 2.1mt of incremental volume adding approximately ₦210 billion in revenue, rising to ₦300 billion annually at 80% utilisation from year two. This alone shifts 2026 revenue growth from a modelled 20% to approximately 38%. The second factor is Huaxin Building Materials, the new 83.81% Chinese owner who completed their acquisition from Holcim in 2025. Huaxin runs domestic operations at EBITDA margins of 35–45% and their operational playbook, clinker optimization, fuel switching, procurement centralization, conservatively adds 2–3 percentage points of EBIT margin over the next two to three years. On ₦1.5 trillion of 2027 revenue, 2pp of margin improvement alone is ₦30 billion of additional annual NOPAT.

Incorporating both factors into the revised model, the bear case (capacity delayed, margins revert to 30%) gives ₦105–₦120 per share. The base case (capacity online H1 2026, margins holding at 37–40%, Huaxin delivering modest efficiency gains) gives ₦185–₦210 per share. The bull case (full ramp, Huaxin pushes margins toward 42%) gives ₦260–₦310 per share. At ₦210, WAPCO is sitting at the top of the base case and the entry point of the bull case, a completely different conclusion from the initial overvaluation call.

The honest assessment is this: the business is genuinely exceptional, ₦210 is a fair price for it, and the upside to ₦260–₦310 is credible without heroic assumptions. But three risks deserve monitoring. The ₦96.6 billion dividend proposal raises the question of whether Huaxin intends to grow the business or extract cash, if it's the latter, the growth thesis weakens. Naira depreciation remains a structural risk given USD-linked input costs in energy and clinker. And Dangote and BUA will not ignore a 3.5mt capacity addition from a competitor without a pricing response. The first real read on how this plays out will be Q1 2026 results, specifically utilization rates on the new line. If that comes in at or above 60%, the bull case becomes the base case and ₦210 will look cheap in hindsight.

megawealth01:
Central Bank Stopped Naira From Appreciating To ₦1000/$ – Shetttima

https://www.channelstv.com/2026/02/24/video-why-naira-did-not-appreciate-to-%e2%82%a61000-shettima/

Some people would still praise the govt for this.

megawealth01:
As PETERICHY don comot from JAPAUL, we are now on FULL BID...

JEGEDE please be kind this time

The market generally is looking up.
Japaulgold full bid is not sustainable.
They will use this opportunity to drop more and still push down to accumulation level.

Sell into their strength and wait for their accumulations.

yMcy56:
N4 paid as special interim dividend last year

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43853_LAFARGE_AFRICA_PLC.-CORPORATE_DISCLOSURE__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2025.pdf

Thank you.


That will be a total dividend of N10.00k

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t understand why the stock does not move. Do people place that much importance on Div? It’s a good result, this year they can do N10 EPS

I no fancy TOE businesses. It seems it is set up for himself and family to benefit not stockholders. I don sell my Transcorp tey tey and just waiting for the right opportunity to dump TransPower. I dont undertsand how a company will be making record profits and the stock refuse to move.

Stockpromoter:
The market generally is looking up.
Japaulgold full bid is not sustainable.
They will use this opportunity to drop more and still push down to accumulation level.

Sell into their strength and wait for their accumulations.

I think you are saying this because you panic sell. If you still have it what you will be saying now is see you at 10 naira.

Sunrisepebble:
I heard they had commenced even before the announcement

Ok. Thats great. Thank you.

Na magomago na, so it's temporal unless they have structures down

mikeapollo:
Some people would still praise the govt for this.

Better get back into anything Tony... If jagaban continues into 2027...? Omo Tony and Wale don overhammer

Oasisblue:
I no fancy TOE businesses. It seems it is set up for himself and family to benefit not stockholders. I don sell my Transcorp tey tey and just waiting for the right opportunity to dump TransPower. I dont undertsand how a company will be making record profits and the stock refuse to move.

Oasisblue:
I no fancy TOE businesses. It seems it is set up for himself and family to benefit not stockholders. I don sell my Transcorp tey tey and just waiting for the right opportunity to dump TransPower. I dont undertsand how a company will be making record profits and the stock refuse to move.

Sebi I talk am some days ago.. company for the majority owners only, the only beneficiaries.

Groundnuts inside bottle for the minority.

For complete a year, no meaningful price appreciation or good dividends.

abuhusna1:
I think you are saying this because you panic sell. If you still have it what you will be saying now is see you at 10 naira.

You will buy enough units at below 3 in the coming weeks.
Whales will use this opportunity of general market excitement to offload all and reserve what they will use to control the price to their next entry level.

I will join their next entry during accumulations/confirmations.

I am not in a haste.

The financial statements seems to suggest total dividend of N6/share for 2025. Does that mean only additional dividend of N2/share would be paid?

emmanuelewumi:
Thank you.


That will be a total dividend of N10.00k

KarlTom:
Going by the bolded, you are not really a believer...

FTNCOCOA at N5/N6 is grossly undervalued as most stocks on NGx currently.

*In Mavo’s voice* - I no dey talk too much again

THIS IS NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION

emmanuelewumi:
Thank you.
That will be a total dividend of N10.00k

I've checked....
The interim dividend of N4 was for the 1st quarter in 2025
One of it kind and a special one I think

So, for 2025 Financial Year, it was actually N10.

This NGX is funny sha. When I was loading almost all kobo stocks few years ago, I was called all manner of names but what changed today? 😂

See FTN I got in at #0.26k is being chased at premium #5+? 😞

I bought many of them just for fun and still have many of my kobo stocks sha

zendi:
Where is Bawa, of Oando ?

On the enemy side, where is Godlyguy ?

ee say na "on the enemy side"

megawealth01:
Na same fear for OANDO because of Wale

Me I wan dig deep into Japaul at the right price

JAPAUL is a HOLD for ME which is why I have held it for years now although my CAPITAL no dey am ooooo because I don't play with my CAPITAL....

But I just want JEGEDE to start behaving like the repentant TONY?

SonofElElyonRet:
Me I wan dig deep into Japaul at the right price

Sunrisepebble:
I think people expect too much RE: dividend sometimes.
They’ve paid out 60%, and they have expansion plans. And unlike Bua and Dangcem they don’t like to take on debt, so it will be funded by internal cash flows

Well, some see stock as a business and as the company itself.

Some others see it as a derivative; independent of the company or business.


#NoStressYourself