₦airaland Forum

Una too like WAHALA ooooo

zendi:
Where is Bawa, of Oando ?

On the enemy side, where is Godlyguy ?

CEO of Ellah Lakes is live on ARISE

Pa Emma 😂

Sunrisepebble:
CEO of Ellah Lakes is live on ARISE

.

ositadima1:
Revenue hit ₦1.066 trillion, up 53% year-on-year. Normalized EBIT came to ₦387.9 billion at a 36.4% margin, EBITDA was ₦422.7 billion (39.6% margin), and profit after tax was ₦273.1 billion. The company is sitting on ₦388 billion in cash against only ₦166 billion in borrowings, a net cash position of ₦222 billion, and has proposed a ₦6/share dividend, five times last year's payout. These are not the numbers of a struggling cement company.

To value WAPCO properly I used a Damodaran-aligned DCF, which means starting from what the business actually earns operationally rather than headline profit. After stripping out non-recurring other income, the PPE impairment reversal, and the ₦30.2 billion finance income earned on cash deposits (which I account for separately), normalized NOPAT, net operating profit after the 33.6% effective tax rate, comes to ₦257.5 billion. The next step is invested capital. Lafarge Africa runs with structurally negative working capital of ₦103 billion, meaning customers pay before the company settles its suppliers. Combined with PPE of ₦448.6 billion, total invested capital is ₦347.1 billion. Dividing NOPAT by invested capital gives a Return on Invested Capital of 74.2%, which was 75.1% in 2024. For context, most global cement companies operate at 10–20% ROIC. Every naira reinvested in this business creates significant value.

For the discount rate, I used a WACC of 25.6%, built from a risk-free rate of 18.5% (Nigerian T-Bill yield), Nigeria's equity risk premium of 10.5% (Damodaran), and an unlevered cement sector beta of 0.72. The company's near-zero leverage keeps WACC close to the cost of equity. This is a high discount rate but it reflects the Nigerian macro reality, not a criticism of the business.

Free cash flow to the firm in 2025 was ₦88.1 billion on a reported basis, suppressed by a ₦129.6 billion working capital absorption as rapid revenue growth caused inventories and receivables to balloon. Normalized for a more sustainable working capital trajectory, FCFF is approximately ₦187.8 billion or ₦11.65 per share. Running a three-phase DCF on conservative assumptions, revenue growing at 20–25% decaying to 5% terminal growth, EBIT margins compressing gradually from 37% to 30%, produced an initial intrinsic value of approximately ₦123.5 per share (Base Case). Against the current market price of ₦210, that initial model flagged the stock as roughly 41% overvalued.

However, two factors I subsequently incorporated change the picture materially. The first is the near-complete 3.5 million tonne capacity expansion. Against current installed capacity of ~10.5mt, this is a 33% increase in one move. At a conservative 60% utilisation in year one, that's 2.1mt of incremental volume adding approximately ₦210 billion in revenue, rising to ₦300 billion annually at 80% utilisation from year two. This alone shifts 2026 revenue growth from a modelled 20% to approximately 38%. The second factor is Huaxin Building Materials, the new 83.81% Chinese owner who completed their acquisition from Holcim in 2025. Huaxin runs domestic operations at EBITDA margins of 35–45% and their operational playbook, clinker optimization, fuel switching, procurement centralization, conservatively adds 2–3 percentage points of EBIT margin over the next two to three years. On ₦1.5 trillion of 2027 revenue, 2pp of margin improvement alone is ₦30 billion of additional annual NOPAT.

Incorporating both factors into the revised model, the bear case (capacity delayed, margins revert to 30%) gives ₦105–₦120 per share. The base case (capacity online H1 2026, margins holding at 37–40%, Huaxin delivering modest efficiency gains) gives ₦185–₦210 per share. The bull case (full ramp, Huaxin pushes margins toward 42%) gives ₦260–₦310 per share. At ₦210, WAPCO is sitting at the top of the base case and the entry point of the bull case, a completely different conclusion from the initial overvaluation call.

The honest assessment is this: the business is genuinely exceptional, ₦210 is a fair price for it, and the upside to ₦260–₦310 is credible without heroic assumptions. But three risks deserve monitoring. The ₦96.6 billion dividend proposal raises the question of whether Huaxin intends to grow the business or extract cash, if it's the latter, the growth thesis weakens. Naira depreciation remains a structural risk given USD-linked input costs in energy and clinker. And Dangote and BUA will not ignore a 3.5mt capacity addition from a competitor without a pricing response. The first real read on how this plays out will be Q1 2026 results, specifically utilization rates on the new line. If that comes in at or above 60%, the bull case becomes the base case and ₦210 will look cheap in hindsight.

Thank you

Sunrisepebble:
CEO of Ellah Lakes is live on ARISE

Another round of media blitz

abuhusna1:
That bank cam never die. It is the only hope of the north as a source of halal savings and investment.

Secular govt are now keying into Halai investment as well.
Sentimentally, any proposed investment from the Saudis as recent news announced some kind of partnership will definitely involve Jaiz as a front runner.

megawealth01:
This NGX is funny sha. When I was loading almost all kobo stocks few years ago, I was called all manner of names but what changed today? 😂

See FTN I got in a $0.26k is being chased at premium $5+? 😞

I bought many of them just for fun and still have many of my kobo stocks sha

The crazy thing is that at $5 it is still cheap

I have learnt lesson from Presco. I am sure some people thought Presco was too expensive at N200.

My next move would be on kobos stocks currently on NGX (stocks less the N5). I just haven’t had time to analyze and pick my targets.

He is saying dividend payment in the next 12 months

Sunrisepebble:
CEO of Ellah Lakes is live on ARISE

Stockpromoter:
The market generally is looking up.
Japaulgold full bid is not sustainable.
They will use this opportunity to drop more and still push down to accumulation level.

Sell into their strength and wait for their accumulations.

The market generally looking up could mean that the bear in the last few days was mostly caused by the NGX alert/warning due to the Zichis issue.

And there is no single stock listed on NGX that can have a sustainable full bid, so your reference to only Japaul is purely mischief.

CHAMPION BREWERIES
Full bid @19.35...?

ELLAHLAKES @11.50!
This market sha....
Reason it's not good to panic sell sometimes...
Those who rushed out are probably rushing in again...😊
It's well

We go all dey alright las las...

Make SEC sha allow O&O start its northern race soonest as well

Itzlinda:
I think it's my northern brother driving it up.

The ngx hype is going on all over Nigeria. Muslims prefer to buy Islamic compliant investments. I think that's what is driving the rally...

They come to ngx because market is going up and jaiz bank is kinda popular in the north

Another point

I will advise you wait a little...

All stocks will be repriced and get back to base... I don't know the YEAR that will happen but be PATIENT with FUNDS... I used 2020 to plan for what I'm enjoying today

Harddiskng:
The crazy thing is that at $5 it is still cheap

I have learnt lesson from Presco. I am sure some people thought Presco was too expensive at N200.

My next move would be on kobos stocks currently on NGX (stocks less the N5). I just haven’t had time to analyze and pick my targets.

Expect another visit of BROKERS to ELLAHLAKES farms

ositadima1:
Revenue hit ₦1.066 trillion, up 53% year-on-year. Normalized EBIT came to ₦387.9 billion at a 36.4% margin, EBITDA was ₦422.7 billion (39.6% margin), and profit after tax was ₦273.1 billion. The company is sitting on ₦388 billion in cash against only ₦166 billion in borrowings, a net cash position of ₦222 billion, and has proposed a ₦6/share dividend, five times last year's payout. These are not the numbers of a struggling cement company.

To value WAPCO properly I used a Damodaran-aligned DCF, which means starting from what the business actually earns operationally rather than headline profit. After stripping out non-recurring other income, the PPE impairment reversal, and the ₦30.2 billion finance income earned on cash deposits (which I account for separately), normalized NOPAT, net operating profit after the 33.6% effective tax rate, comes to ₦257.5 billion. The next step is invested capital. Lafarge Africa runs with structurally negative working capital of ₦103 billion, meaning customers pay before the company settles its suppliers. Combined with PPE of ₦448.6 billion, total invested capital is ₦347.1 billion. Dividing NOPAT by invested capital gives a Return on Invested Capital of 74.2%, which was 75.1% in 2024. For context, most global cement companies operate at 10–20% ROIC. Every naira reinvested in this business creates significant value.

For the discount rate, I used a WACC of 25.6%, built from a risk-free rate of 18.5% (Nigerian T-Bill yield), Nigeria's equity risk premium of 10.5% (Damodaran), and an unlevered cement sector beta of 0.72. The company's near-zero leverage keeps WACC close to the cost of equity. This is a high discount rate but it reflects the Nigerian macro reality, not a criticism of the business.

Free cash flow to the firm in 2025 was ₦88.1 billion on a reported basis, suppressed by a ₦129.6 billion working capital absorption as rapid revenue growth caused inventories and receivables to balloon. Normalized for a more sustainable working capital trajectory, FCFF is approximately ₦187.8 billion or ₦11.65 per share. Running a three-phase DCF on conservative assumptions, revenue growing at 20–25% decaying to 5% terminal growth, EBIT margins compressing gradually from 37% to 30%, produced an initial intrinsic value of approximately ₦123.5 per share (Base Case). Against the current market price of ₦210, that initial model flagged the stock as roughly 41% overvalued.

However, two factors I subsequently incorporated change the picture materially. The first is the near-complete 3.5 million tonne capacity expansion. Against current installed capacity of ~10.5mt, this is a 33% increase in one move. At a conservative 60% utilisation in year one, that's 2.1mt of incremental volume adding approximately ₦210 billion in revenue, rising to ₦300 billion annually at 80% utilisation from year two. This alone shifts 2026 revenue growth from a modelled 20% to approximately 38%. The second factor is Huaxin Building Materials, the new 83.81% Chinese owner who completed their acquisition from Holcim in 2025. Huaxin runs domestic operations at EBITDA margins of 35–45% and their operational playbook, clinker optimization, fuel switching, procurement centralization, conservatively adds 2–3 percentage points of EBIT margin over the next two to three years. On ₦1.5 trillion of 2027 revenue, 2pp of margin improvement alone is ₦30 billion of additional annual NOPAT.

Incorporating both factors into the revised model, the bear case (capacity delayed, margins revert to 30%) gives ₦105–₦120 per share. The base case (capacity online H1 2026, margins holding at 37–40%, Huaxin delivering modest efficiency gains) gives ₦185–₦210 per share. The bull case (full ramp, Huaxin pushes margins toward 42%) gives ₦260–₦310 per share. At ₦210, WAPCO is sitting at the top of the base case and the entry point of the bull case, a completely different conclusion from the initial overvaluation call.

The honest assessment is this: the business is genuinely exceptional, ₦210 is a fair price for it, and the upside to ₦260–₦310 is credible without heroic assumptions. But three risks deserve monitoring. The ₦96.6 billion dividend proposal raises the question of whether Huaxin intends to grow the business or extract cash, if it's the latter, the growth thesis weakens. Naira depreciation remains a structural risk given USD-linked input costs in energy and clinker. And Dangote and BUA will not ignore a 3.5mt capacity addition from a competitor without a pricing response. The first real read on how this plays out will be Q1 2026 results, specifically utilization rates on the new line. If that comes in at or above 60%, the bull case becomes the base case and ₦210 will look cheap in hindsight.

Damodaran, the doyen of Valuation.

Na OANDO be my main concern for this market now... I'm heavily loaded there

yMcy56:
CHAMPION BREWERIES
Full bid @19.35...?

ELLAHLAKES @11.50!
This market sha....
Reason it's not good to panic sell sometimes...
Those who rushed out are probably rushing in again...😊
It's well

We go all dey alright las las...

Make SEC sha allow O&O start its northern race soonest as well

Sunrisepebble:
He is saying dividend payment in the next 12 months

Says he has 22,000 hectares of land, 50% of which is said to be cultivated.
Interviewer tackling him about operating loss of ~ N1.8 billion

With sharp camera to pepper 🌶️

KarlTom:
Expect another visit of BROKERS to ELLAHLAKES farms

Full BID loading

Sunrisepebble:
He is saying dividend payment in the next 12 months

The quantity left should be cool for me unless there is a serious reversal

megawealth01:
Una too like WAHALA ooooo

Nobe small thing.

Godlyguy na my friend, but hardcore enemy of Oando, unless e don channge.

In conclusion, Mr Chuka is talking smoothly and encouraging investors to ‘have patience’ for the ‘medium-term’
This Arise interviewer na im plug oo! Lol

Free PR.

First of many...

Panadee:
In conclusion, Mr Chuka is talking smoothly and encouraging investors to ‘have patience’ for the ‘medium-term’
This Arise interviewer na im plug oo! Lol

megawealth01:
Na OANDO be my main concern for this market now... I'm heavily loaded there

Welcome bro!
But you have to drop something, so you can to be fully baptized as an Oandoite!
With baptism the assurance of mega mega mega loot is assured in due course.....this is also anointed message as revealed by our prophet and it shall come to pass.

megawealth01:
I will advise you wait a little. All stocks will be repriced and get back to base... I don't know the YEAR at that will happen but be PATIENT... I used 2020 to plan for what I'm enjoying today

I have mentioned it before why i no longer wait. In the last few months i have missed two trains, waiting for a discount and these stocks have done over 35% now.

Plus I am buying for long term, my hold period is a minimum of 5 years. Waiting for a 20% discount is nothing compared to minimum of 500% i am expecting in 5 years. Even with this mentality i am currently sitting on 1million in profit on my portfolio. So i have so much leeway.

Once i do my computations (of which current price in comparison to 52 weeks high is part of it), the stock(s) that tick all the boxes. I enter at that price. No time.

What is giving me concern is that my CAPITAL now crazily in OANDO as I study the political calculations in NAIJA

mikeapollo:
Welcome bro!
But you have to drop something, so you can to be fully baptized as an Oandoite!
With baptism the assurance of mega mega mega loot is assured in due course.....this is also anointed message as revealed by our prophet and it shall come to pass.

How long have you been in this market? If you are below 50 then just calm down ooooo

But if you think you can shoulder the shock of NGX in the long term then nothing do you

Harddiskng:
I have mentioned it before why i no longer wait. In the last few months i have missed two trains, waiting for a discount and these stocks have done over 35% now.

Plus I am buying for long term, my hold period is a minimum of 5 years. Waiting for a 20% discount is nothing compared to minimum of 500% i am expecting in 5 years. Even with this mentality i am currently sitting on 1million in profit on my portfolio. So i have so much leeway.

Once i do my computations (of which current price in comparison to 52 weeks high is part of it), the stock(s) that tick all the boxes. I enter at that price. No time.

Chuka is planning to enter the big league be that

Panadee:
In conclusion, Mr Chuka is talking smoothly and encouraging investors to ‘have patience’ for the ‘medium-term’
This Arise interviewer na im plug oo! Lol

UNITY BANK has both my CAPITAL, GAINS and extra sef 😂

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megawealth01:
Na OANDO be my main concern for this market now... I'm heavily loaded there

You've always been patient nah...
Just exercise more patience...

chimex38:
Secular govt are now keying into Halai investment as well.
Sentimentally, any proposed investment from the Saudis as recent news announced some kind of partnership will definitely involve Jaiz as a front runner.

Na true oo, conduit for Arab money coming in to support any project.

megawealth01:
Pa Emma 😂

He was on Arise, Money Show, network news etc during their public offer. Wetin happen at the end of the day?