₦airaland Forum

UBA offers keep increasing... Wetin really happen sef?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fcGfAHix9v8

NGX Midday Update for today.

Just got my NASCON and GTCO dividends.
Honestly it is sweet. I now understand clearly the reaction to UBA zero dividend, the impact is real, UBA is no longer dividend Aristocrat! Simple!

Someone shld please help me with the total offer nits for UBA as at now. Morgan is presently showing about 72.5 million but i am sure that is not the full count.

HesInMe:
You're right that it matters in the extreme case because of trading liquidity. But not in the cement manufacturers examples Madam gave.

Outstanding shares will affect the market capitalization of the stock.

The current market capitalization of BUA cement is twice that of Lafarge. Besed on their capacities, revenue, profit after tax, shareholders fund do you think that is sustainable on the long run

Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends

robobo:
Someone shld please help me with the total offer nits for UBA as at now. Morgan is presently showing about 72.5 million but i am sure that is not the full count.

But seriously UBA should be punished more than this just like MTN was punished 2 years ago so they can sit up

ghm:
Just got my NASCON and GTCO dividends.
Honestly it is sweet. I now understand clearly the reaction to UBA zero dividend, the impact is real, UBA is no longer dividend Aristocrat! Simple!

Yeah. It hurts. Imagine myself that picked my RI @50.

At least I was expecting a minimum net of 200k but That floor is red 😀. Mutual fund would have been a better place to keep my money as to the RI

Make dem help us get DangCem up a little bit more today, tomorrow , we go again

yMcy56:
DANGCEM officially @937......Up with N29.50 so far...
Selling @965 intraday.....

WAPCO officially @324.50......+10% already..

BUACEM @350......Up with +N15 so far...

Na cement I dey market around this time ...😁

I don dey look JAPAUL with one eye @3....
The facility delivery was scheduled for May...
Sorry, I mean commercial production of Gold...

Shellholders

emmanuelewumi:
You dey mind sentimental shareholders.

Investors don run comot from UBA before kasala burst, na shareholders remain

Pesin add yeast

megawealth01:
UBA offers keep increasing... Wetin really happen sef?

Still expecting mine.

ghm:
Just got my NASCON and GTCO dividends.
Honestly it is sweet. I now understand clearly the reaction to UBA zero dividend, the impact is real, UBA is no longer dividend Aristocrat! Simple!

megawealth01:
Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends

The offers are not just based on the non payment of common dividend but on the realisation that the management is questionable, same as Access Bank

I sold all my UBA shares the moment the news broke that Tony acquired substantial shares in Seplat Energy

KarlTom:
Shellholders

They are not shell holders.

Shareholders of dead stocks are called shell holders

DAMN!

megawealth01:
Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends

But seriously UBA should be punished more than this just like MTN was punished 2 years ago so they can sit up

Technically speaking.
Inside loans sucked the juice (dividends) and left the 'shell'...

emmanuelewumi:
They are not shell holders.

Shareholders of dead stocks are called shell holders

Nawaoh so they should be at the same price or lower than access sef

Blakhorse:
The offers are not just based on the non payment of common dividend but on the realisation that the management is questionable, same as Access Bank

megawealth01:
Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends

But seriously UBA should be punished more than this just like MTN was punished 2 years ago so they can sit up

But I think UBA dividend was fantastic last year or 2 years ago (can't remember the exact year(

You truly understand this game... I've been trying explain this to my people for aomg time but some don't understand the huge differences

emmanuelewumi:
You dey mind sentimental shareholders.


Investors don run comot from UBA before kasala burst, na shareholders remain

ositadima1:
Is 26 not -9% plus? Do you expect it to hit -15%? Lol.

"Holding...." not in reference to today's price alone

.we have forgoten last yr .i had plenty plan for the dvidend

mikeapollo:
But I think UBA dividend was fantastic last year or 2 years ago (can't remember the exact year(

megawealth01:
Nawaoh so they should be at the same price or lower than access sef

No, UBA will bounce back, Tony will do the needful at some point but Access is irredeemable cos their funds are tied up in real estate

Last year....

We don chop am finish

mikeapollo:
But I think UBA dividend was fantastic last year or 2 years ago (can't remember the exact year(

KarlTom:
Technically speaking.
Inside loans sucked the juice (dividends) and left the 'shell'...

Yeah, I think that the real issue. It's not just the nonpayment of dividends, people feel ripped off.

.feel sorry for who cannot sell .very painful to see profit reduce

megawealth01:
Almost 190m offer... Una no get joy at all for UBA because of common dividends

But seriously UBA should be punished more than this just like MTN was punished 2 years ago so they can sit up

Abeg ooooooo. This your stone on access eh

Blakhorse:
No, UBA will bounce back, Tony will do the needful at some point but Access is irredeemable cos their funds are tied up in real estate

All this gragra na just this week and UBA will be alright abi nobi NAIJA again?

Yemy3m:
.feel sorry for who cannot sell .very painful to see profit reduce

MTN investors did worst. It's during the dump on MTN I reloaded all I sold at 300+ back at 170+ and did more topups afterwards sef

It's only in the WEST it will take a COY a long time of explanations etc before they can bounce back from a fatal loss

Blakhorse:
No, UBA will bounce back, Tony will do the needful at some point but Access is irredeemable cos their funds are tied up in real estate

Which ''real estate'' be dat?
You mean their branch and subsidiary expansion or what?

I held a conference with ChatGPT and eventually asked 'him' to peep into Q1 performance based on aviatioin activities during the period. 'He' agrees with your growth projection.

Could you search for for aviation activities involving NAHCO during the period under review and how this might influence their Q1 performance?

You’re thinking about this the right way—this is exactly how you get edge: map real operational activity → translate into revenue/margins → front-run the numbers.

I pulled together the actual aviation + company-specific developments in Q1 2026 that matter for Nigerian Aviation Handling Company Plc, and I’ll connect each one directly to earnings impact.

✈️ 1. Contract expansion (very bullish — structural revenue growth)
What happened:
NAHCO renewed major contracts with:
Air France
KLM
Virgin Atlantic
RwandAir
And signed new deals with:
United Nigeria (regional ops)
Bellagio Air
Malaikair
Why this matters for Q1:
These contracts started contributing from late 2025 → fully reflected in Q1 2026
More airlines = more:
Aircraft handling fees
Passenger handling revenue
Cargo throughput

👉 Translation:
This is volume + pricing + utilization uplift hitting Q1 fully for the first time

🛫 2. New airline / route activity (incremental upside)
What happened:
NAHCO welcomed a new carrier (FlyGabon) into Lagos operations in April 2026
Why this matters:
Every new airline adds:
Landing cycles → handling fees
Passenger throughput
Cargo (especially regional routes)

👉 Even if late-Q1:

It signals pipeline strength
Market may price forward earnings, not just Q1 print
📦 3. Cargo tariff increase (this is BIG for margins)
What happened:
Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria implemented:
Cargo tariff increase from ₦7 → ₦20/kg (~3x jump) starting Feb 2026
Why this matters:
NAHCO is deeply exposed to cargo handling + warehousing
Even if FAAN takes a portion:
Entire ecosystem reprices upward
Handling companies typically pass through + add margin

👉 Translation:

Revenue per ton ↑ sharply
Likely margin expansion in cargo segment

This is probably the single biggest Q1 catalyst most people are underestimating.

🏗️ 4. Expansion of aviation ecosystem (volume tailwind)
What happened:
New/expanded aviation activity:
Victor Attah International Airport gained international status → operations expected in Q1 2026
Enugu Air scaling operations after getting AOC in March 2026
Why this matters:
More airports + airlines = more:
Domestic rotations
Regional/international handling demand

👉 NAHCO benefits because:

It already has multi-airport presence
Incremental traffic drops into existing infrastructure (high operating leverage)
⚠️ 5. Macro aviation pressure (short-term risk, but nuanced)
What’s happening:
Jet fuel prices surged → airlines nearly cut capacity
Government intervened:
Fuel price caps
Debt relief for airlines
Impact on NAHCO:

Negative risk (initially):

Airlines cutting flights = lower handling volume

But intervention flips it:

Stabilization = no major disruption in Q1 traffic
Credit support = airlines keep flying

👉 Net effect:

Likely neutral to slightly positive for Q1
Bigger benefit may show in Q2 stability
🧠 Putting it all together (this is the real insight)
Q1 2026 setup for NAHCO:
Driver Direction Strength
Contract expansion ✅ Positive Strong
Cargo tariff hike ✅ Positive Very strong
New airlines/routes ✅ Positive Moderate
Traffic expansion (airports/airlines) ✅ Positive Moderate
Fuel crisis ⚠️ Mixed Mild risk
📊 My read (based on all this)

Given everything:

👉 Revenue

Likely +20% to +35% YoY

👉 PAT

Could surprise on the upside if:
Cargo margins expand
Cost discipline holds

👉 Key swing factor:

Whether they convert tariff increases into margin or just pass-through

emmanuelewumi:
You can compare Q1 2026 with Q12025.

I am expecting 25% to 30% growth sha

mikeapollo:
But I think UBA dividend was fantastic last year or 2 years ago (can't remember the exact year(

Tony used that one to entice shareholders.

UBA even paid a dividend that is higher than what Zenith bank paid

This UBA lose reminds me of my LASACO which is currently at almost 50% loss

emmanuelewumi:
Tony used that one to entice shareholders.

UBA even paid a dividend that is higher than what Zenith bank paid

LASACO just dey lule until they had to save face by calling for RI at 2 naira if not maybe by now E don reach 100% loss

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