₦airaland Forum

Japaul lule.. might load up if it gets to 2:50

LORD have mercy 😭

Agbalowomeri:
Na only girls dey go school now. All the boys have joined HK

I'm waiting for sub 2.50 if it ever gets there.i will load craze comot for am

SonofElElyonRet:
Japaul lule.. might load up if it gets to 2:50

megawealth01:
Nobi me write am ooooo

I can debunk most of the things there but this is not the thread for that. I however agree we need to slow down on the borrowing especially eurobonds. We also have to find ways to get inflation down to single digits so we can cut interest rates.
To do that, Goverment should introduce some form of subsidy. Use the current windfall (if price remains at $120 per barrel) to subsidize diesel and be more aggressive on CNG infrastructure/roll out for big firms.

The truth is that Nigeria still needs SUBSIDY even here in the WEST we enjoy some kind of relief from government

GeneralDae:
I can debunk most of the things there but this is not the thread for that. I however agree we need to slow down on the borrowing especially eurobonds. We also have to find ways to get inflation down to single digits so we can cut interest rates.
To do that, Goverment should introduce some form of subsidy. Use the current windfall (if price remains at $120 per barrel) to subsidize diesel and be more aggressive on CNG infrastructure/roll out for big firms.

megawealth01:
The truth is that Nigeria still needs SUBSIDY even here in the WEST we enjoy some kind of relief from government

Nigeria does not need subsidy. Don't advocate for distorted markets. If subsidy is brought in again, smuggling will restart en-masse to Benin, Cameroon & Niger. Consumption will shoot up.
Let market handle things normally. If the price is really unaffordable, demand by some people for the goods will be destroyed.

Sunrisepebble:
Yeah, the profit growth is the slowest na

I think they all did well. The attached table is a direct extraction from the financials without any adjustments. Also, note that Dangote Cement faced significant exchange losses, which negatively impacted their Pan-African segment. I think, in the short term, the momentum we are seeing in cement stocks will continue (it's a buy ).



No bias or anything just raw data.

megawealth01:
I'm waiting for sub 2.50 if it ever gets there.i will load craze comot for am

Mega oya tell us your target price bracket..

Thanks for the analysis. True, all are firing well, but there's no question based on your numbers that Lafarge is growing the fastest. Impressively, all that growth is accruing to the benefit of equity holders: Unlike its peers, Lafarge has no net debt.

Even more, WAPCO's valuation is still well below BUACEM's.

The only distant worry is if industry competitive dynamics change, and Dangote, given its sheer scale, decides to trigger a price war. Logic and game theory suggest that's unlikely sha, as it'll hurt all three oligopolies.

ositadima1:
I think they all did well. The attached table is a direct extraction from the financials without any adjustments. Also, note that Dangote Cement faced significant exchange losses, which negatively impacted their Pan-African segment. I think, in the short term, the momentum we are seeing in cement stocks will continue (it's a buy ).



No bias or anything just raw data.

With the way the present admin has been reform driven. I won’t be surprised too if in the distant future, there are some easing on the import restrictions/ tariffs on cement

HesInMe:
Thanks for the analysis. True, all are firing well, but there's no question based on your numbers that Lafarge is growing the fastest. Impressively, all that growth is accruing to the benefit of equity holders: Unlike its peers, Lafarge have no net debt.

Even more, WAPCO's valuation is still well below BUACEM's.

The only distant worry is if industry competitive dynamics change, and Dangote, given its sheer scale, decides to trigger a price war. Logic and game theory suggests that's unlikely sha, as it'll hurt all three oligopolies.

Sunrisepebble:
With the way the present admin has been reform driven. I won’t be surprised too if in the distant future, there are some easing on the import restrictions/ tariffs on cement

There needs to be because it's difficult to build with the high cost of cement now

I agree

Utalinmou:
There needs to be because it's difficult to build with the high cost of cement now

I doubt that there's really much you can debunk from the piece if you look at it entirely from the actual living conditions of the average Nigerian these past three years which is exactly what the writer has emphasizing on. When Reno Omokri and the other Tinubu apologists point you to the stock market and flash so-called macro-economic indices and cold stats that do not tell any convincing story on the worsening personal living conditions of the average Nigerian to 'debunk' the reality of majority of Nigerians, conditions that are now purely one of straightforward poverty and abject destitution, then you know they're simply the privileged ones who have no personal stakes in the daily suffering of the majority. But like a wise philosopher reportedly quipped: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.'

GeneralDae:
I can debunk most of the things there but this is not the thread for that. I however agree we need to slow down on the borrowing especially eurobonds. We also have to find ways to get inflation down to single digits so we can cut interest rates.
To do that, Goverment should introduce some form of subsidy. Use the current windfall (if price remains at $120 per barrel) to subsidize diesel and be more aggressive on CNG infrastructure/roll out for big firms.

HesInMe:
Thanks for the analysis. True, all are firing well, but there's no question based on your numbers that Lafarge is growing the fastest. Impressively, all that growth is accruing to the benefit of equity holders: Unlike its peers, Lafarge has no net debt.

Even more, WAPCO's valuation is still well below BUACEM's.

The only distant worry is if industry competitive dynamics change, and Dangote, given its sheer scale, decides to trigger a price war. Logic and game theory suggest that's unlikely sha, as it'll hurt all three oligopolies.

No, this is not correct. I don’t know, maybe it’s because you are a heavy investor in WAPCO and that is clouding your analysis.

Now, a few points. Historically, WAPCO was operating at 60% capacity, and I guess that is what they are reclaiming. Given the industry they are in, there is a limit to how efficient you can be, as you cannot go above installed capacity. Cement has a specific chemistry, so there is no advantage there unless WAPCO is bringing an entirely new segment.

Dangote’s group P&L was dragged down by a net foreign exchange loss of ₦13.2 billion and a whopping ₦70.5 billion translation loss in OCI, purely from naira devaluation against subsidiaries’ functional currencies. The company’s standalone entity also suffered a ₦73.1 billion FX loss on inter-company loans. If we strip out these macro-driven losses and look only at the Nigeria-only segment, Dangote’s margins become much more impressive:

· Nigeria revenue: ₦861.8 billion
· Nigeria profit for the period: ₦278.3 billion (a 27.4% growth YoY)
· Nigeria net margin: ~32.3%, roughly 200 bps higher than Lafarge’s group net margin of 29.3%

In other words, Dangote’s core Nigerian operations are already more efficient and more profitable than Lafarge’s entire group.

BUA is set to bring in 11 to 12 mtpa from a new factory. Something similar in WAPCO, though lesser capacity.

In the short term (a few quarters), yes, WAPCO may continue showing growth over these two, but it will normalize.

My call, based on unbiased facts, is WAPCO for the short term but Dangote Cement for the long run.

DonDiego:
I doubt that there's really much you can debunk from the piece if you look at it entirely from the actual living conditions of the average Nigerian these past three years which is exactly what the writer has emphasizing on. When Reno Omokri and the other Tinubu apologists point you to the stock market and flash so-called macro-economic indices and cold stats that do not tell any convincing story on the worsening personal living conditions of the average Nigerian to 'debunk' the reality of majority of Nigerians, conditions that are now purely one of straightforward poverty and abject destitution, then you know they're simply the privileged ones who have no personal stakes in the daily suffering of the majority. But like a wise philosopher reportedly quipped: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.'

What do you think would help the average Nigerian? What policy should be reversed or implemented?

Double post

Today is the turn of Wapco to drop dividend.

Maybe we should start with cutting down on the corruption. Trim the outrageous wastage in governance. Then, actually focus on the people rather than on the politicians and their elite cliques in business and the executive suites. That's what a serious minded government facing the sort of conditions that Tinubu met in 2023 would do.

GeneralDae:
What do you think would help the average Nigerian? What policy should be reversed or implemented?

DonDiego:
Maybe we should start with cutting down on the corruption. Trim the outrageous wastage in governance. Then, actually focus on the people rather than on the politicians and their elite cliques in business and the executive suites. That's what a serious minded government facing the sort of conditions that Tinubu met in 2023 would do.

This is too vague. What specific corruption should they trim that would solve our problems? Also, how do you focus on the people? What policies would mean the Government is focusing on the people? List practical policies ie is it anchor’s borrower’s program, nelfund, free technical colleges (with stipends), npower, surep, sharing rice, fuel subsidies, credicorp, etc?
Give practical solutions so when you protest or you go vote, you know exactly what you want and not a vague focus on the people or stop corruption.

Sunrisepebble:
With the way the present admin has been reform driven. I won’t be surprised too if in the distant future, there are some easing on the import restrictions/ tariffs on cement

Very unlikely. There is no shortage of cement. Plus, Dangote will fight that out the same way he is doing in the downstream oil sector.

Also, it is counterproductive to Nigeria to import what we have in surplus when the economy needs all the boosts it can get.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5rJlJfNlWC2kQEB7OTt9v0

NGX Premarket for today.

Do we really have in surplus though? Industry capacity utilization is about 50-60% at best.

ositadima1:
Very unlikely. There is no shortage of cement. Plus, Dangote will fight that out the same way he is doing in the downstream oil sector.

Also, it is counterproductive to Nigeria to import what we have in surplus when the economy needs all the boosts it can get.

You mean someone deliberately sought to lead and when he gets there it is left for the one whom he made promises to, to list out for how to make his living conditions better while he takes all the glories of being the leader? I really don't get it. Maybe, he should start from his actual promises. Power. Regular and affordable electricity. Security. Reduction in the cost of living. Affordable healthcare. Education. I mean the list is endless. I am surprised that you are asking me to chart a roadmap for these here for the government or to develop a policy document for attaining these. So, what is the job of all the wonks and technocrats appointed and being paid for that purpose? We make too much excuses for non-performance in this country and when a few point it out, we turn the nuzzle in their direction and leave those we really should be holding accountable.

GeneralDae:
This is too vague. What specific corruption should they trim that would solve our problems? Also, how do you focus on the people? What policies would mean the Government is focusing on the people? List practical policies ie is it anchor’s borrower’s program, nelfund, free technical colleges (with stipends), npower, surep, sharing rice, fuel subsidies, credicorp, etc?
Give practical solutions so when you protest or you go vote, you know exactly what you want and not a vague focus on the people or stop corruption.

Sunrisepebble:
Do we really have in surplus though? Industry capacity utilization is about 50-60% at best.

Currently, yes, based on available data. In the long term, all three are building more capacity organically.

As a Nigerian, before being a stock investor, I would prefer the status quo.

DonDiego:
Maybe we should start with cutting down on the corruption. Trim the outrageous wastage in governance. Then, actually focus on the people rather than on the politicians and their elite cliques in business and the executive suites. That's what a serious minded government facing the sort of conditions that Tinubu met in 2023 would do.

Vague (as usual) and you know it. If you can write the above, you should know they are vague.

My last post on this. Before you say I’m biased. How is this not the fastest growing in the sector ? Operations, scale and efficiency wise. I don’t think anyone is arguing that Dangote is not the king

ositadima1:
No, this is not correct. I don’t know, maybe it’s because you are a heavy investor in WAPCO and that is clouding your analysis.

Now, a few points. Historically, WAPCO was operating at 60% capacity, and I guess that is what they are reclaiming. Given the industry they are in, there is a limit to how efficient you can be, as you cannot go above installed capacity. Cement has a specific chemistry, so there is no advantage there unless WAPCO is bringing an entirely new segment.

Dangote’s group P&L was dragged down by a net foreign exchange loss of ₦13.2 billion and a whopping ₦70.5 billion translation loss in OCI, purely from naira devaluation against subsidiaries’ functional currencies. The company’s standalone entity also suffered a ₦73.1 billion FX loss on inter-company loans. If we strip out these macro-driven losses and look only at the Nigeria-only segment, Dangote’s margins become much more impressive:

· Nigeria revenue: ₦861.8 billion
· Nigeria profit for the period: ₦278.3 billion (a 27.4% growth YoY)
· Nigeria net margin: ~32.3%, roughly 200 bps higher than Lafarge’s group net margin of 29.3%

In other words, Dangote’s core Nigerian operations are already more efficient and more profitable than Lafarge’s entire group.

BUA is set to bring in 11 to 12 mtpa from a new factory. Something similar in WAPCO, though lesser capacity.

In the short term (a few quarters), yes, WAPCO may continue showing growth over these two, but it will normalize.

My call, based on unbiased facts, is WAPCO for the short term but Dangote Cement for the long run.

GeneralDae:
What do you think would help the average Nigerian? What policy should be reversed or implemented?

The APC government has drastically slowed down economic activities by greatly increasing the cost of goods and services.

The astronomical increase in goods and services has reduced economic activities.Consumers tend to buy more when goods and services are cheaper;and increase in consumption increases the growth of the economy.

Sunrisepebble:
My last post on this. Before you say I’m biased. How is this not the fastest growing in the sector ? Operations, scale and efficiency wise. I don’t think anyone is arguing that Dangote is not the king

Did you read my post at all? Where did I say WAPCO is not growing? You never countered any of my points, just reasserting the same thing you already said before.

As a long-term investor (assuming you are), you should try to look beyond the present and assess how the future will play out.

So, you can simply point out the places in my post where I am wrong, or we can agree to disagree amicably.

The argument from day one has been about fastest growth.

ositadima1:
Did you read my post at all? Where did I say WAPCO is not growing? You never countered any of my points, just reasserting the same thing you already said before.

As a long-term investor (assuming you are), you should try to look beyond the present and assess how the future will play out.

So, you can simply point out the places in my post where I am wrong, or we can agree to disagree amicably.

Sunrisepebble:
The argument from day one has been about fastest growth.

Oh, I didn’t know that, lol.

If you want me to do a policy document for the government for free, you really are expecting too much. Let their policy experts appointed and retained on very attractive salaries and allowances do their job. Nobody forced those at the helm of affairs on the job. They sought for it and made promises about what they would do if given the opportunity. Now they're there and they are asking for clues on how to fulfill their promises. No be juju be that?

ghm:
Vague (as usual) and you know it. If you can write the above, you should know they are vague.

DonDiego:
You mean someone deliberately sought to lead and when he gets there it is left for the one whom he made promises to, to list out for how to make his living conditions better while he takes all the glories of being the leader? I really don't get it. Maybe, he should start from his actual promises. Power. Regular and affordable electricity. Security. Reduction in the cost of living. Affordable healthcare. Education. I mean the list is endless. I am surprised that you are asking me to chart a roadmap for these here for the government or to develop a policy document for attaining these. So, what is the job of all the wonks and technocrats appointed and being paid for that purpose? We make too much excuses for non-performance in this country and when a few point it out, we turn the nuzzle in their direction and leave those we really should be holding accountable.

Well, it’s just like when you appoint someone as CEO of your family company. The CEO may have his own ideas on how to make the family better short term, mid term, or long term. It’s possible that the CEO implements policies which you in the family do not like. You have the right to challenge the CEO and tell him exactly what you want else he is convinced that what he is doing already is in the best interest of the family.

Now you have given some practical things you want:

Electric Power : The CEO has clearly failed so far but he has made some excuses like debt constraints since 2015 and lack of gas availability. If you see this as stupid excuses (which they might be) and sack this CEO, what would you like to hear from the new CEO you vote for? What timeline? How do you want him to tackle the efficiency problem and debt problem in a different way?

Security for the family: This current CEO is working on state police and a police trust fund for every member of the family. Is that good enough? This CEO seem to have failed in proposing more strategic methods in following the money to solve the kidnapping problem. Do you think so too and what do you expect from the new CEO you want to employ in tackling kidnapping? Would state police for the sake of state police be enough?

Affordable living for the family: How should this be done? Sharing rice? Keke empowerments? World bank’s 5k to 14 million households? Removal of fuel subsidies? FX pegging? What major policy implementation or policy reversal would bring about affordable cost of living in the short term?

Healthcare: Healthcare is largely in the hands of your state and local Governments who are now empowered more than ever to do more. Do you task them on it?

Education: Isn’t this one of the best Governments in education since the 1980’s with NELFUND, Free technical colleges (which have increased enrollment), and lack of ASUU strikes in 3 years ? Primary education and out of school children issues are largely in the hands of your Governors and LGA’s. Do you know this?