₦airaland Forum

Talking about valuation and indepth stock analysis, do you think the current price of NAHCO agrees with the Q1 2026 result. Is it a sell for you now or a hold or maybe more buy?

emmanuelewumi:
Person holding korofo (empty can) knows, he is only looking for a greater fool that will buy it from him at a higher price.


Stock price manipulation can last for 4 weeks and above of the shareholders are greedy or they are not intelligent investors.

Stock price manipulators detest knowledge, market intelligence, valuation and independent indept stock analysis

Pete002:
where did you get this info please

You were asking how i knew it would be June? I guess u see that some of us here know certain things

isaacosas01:
June.

So TIP will be allocated in June like i earlier said.

Streetinvestor2:
MAYBE when u begin to add value on this thread I will notice u.Now you can fly away

Kai
Appreciate you for not giving that government urchinññ - olaremint - a jot of your time. You try well well.

Current share price is 1.10. How does this make any sense?

KarlTom:
UNIVINSURE RI

https://open.spotify.com/episode/68gpPg9C4pQR6UH9KaNtTu

Ngx pre market for today's trading session

Shalom428:
Talking about valuation and indepth stock analysis, do you think the current price of NAHCO agrees with the Q1 2026 result. Is it a sell for you now or a hold or maybe more buy?

The current PE is about 27 which I think is high, although Nahco is fond of proving me wrong again and again.


I rebalanced my portfolio about 2 weeks ago, I sold 250k units of Nahco, 45k units of Presco, the tasere Transcorp I have left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQDOiyyVz3Y

Ngx premarket for today

All these nonsense theories of the MD selling or caused the whole thing, is she the only MD that has sold in recent times?
Haven't we seen lots of Directors Dealings recently and lots of Cross Deals going on in the market.....huge numbers exchanging hands in almost all the stocks....

So selling 5M out of 120M amounts to running or what?
You forgot there's still a whole 115M left untouched?
So someone cannot sell again to take care of other needs or interests, but you just have to look for every means to justify nonsense?

If it's Tony or Alhaji that sells, it's fine but to the same stock you wish to run down, it's a crime.....
To haters, it's anything to back up hypocrisy.....
We've said it that valuation is not all about fundamentals alone.....
Even Agba with all his analysis of bear was proved wrong by Bull and Mr. Market...

We will all be alright las las.

handsomebolanle:
With all due respect I say this:
Make your numbers and points clear and FULLSTOP.
However there is a level of hostility and speaking less of a stock. The Bigger picture here is that you see funds leaving this stock and moving into other stocks of interest. It’s like saying all roads in Nigeria are bad and taking flight is safe. I haven’t told anyone not to go by road neither I’ve I said people should go by flight but the effect will be that more people will go by flight.
I’m not invested in Zichis or Oando or likes and I’ve learnt great lessons from people here.
My point is that… let’s make our analysis and keep the numbers clear. Let’s put in our energies into clearer picture and let people decide.
In this market.. the money you lose is gained by someone and viceversa.
Just my opinion

Don't mind them.....
It's typical of them here.....
You're a fundamentalist, fine! Stick to what works for you....

What's even happening/reigning in the market now is highly Sentimental (SA) more than FA/TA....
Quite some fundamental stocks are even over valued but because sentiments is reigning, investors were aligning more with them.

When he sold last two weeks he kept silent and didn't keep repeating it here....
In fact, Nsempas who followed him to buy are just getting to know...
Say your opinion and move on....
I don't see what's too difficult there.

His double standard is much!
Some of his valuations were build on HOPE...believing (FAITH) if they could generate certain revenue/PBT, the share price should sell for certain amount in the next 6 mths or a calendar year.......

** So what do we call this?
Is it not HOPE and FAITH?

emmanuelewumi:
I don't bother reading the mentions of some monikers. If I did I will be forced to reply and we will continue with an endless back and forth argument because me sef no dey gree


My write up on Zichis started from a WhatsApp group and I decided to share here.

Someone said people should be careful of Zichis based on the fact that the CEO sold, another person now countered him and said after all one of the directors of NAHCO sold 350k.

That was when I started looking at the earnings, growth, efficiency and valuation of both companies.

I have never bothered to look at the books of Zichis for once, if I did I would have shared my findings.

The back and forth arguments between the guy and myself was what made me to dig deeper to discover the unreasonable premium valuation given to Zichis.

By the way the guy arguing with me is a chartered accountant, management accountant etc and I am just a stock market investor.

The guy no gree, me sef no gree. But the people believe the figures I presented and probably knew I was making sense.

Other players in the agriculture sector also added their contribution to the discussion.

The next day, quite a number of them tried to exit the stock .


If not for that guy that tried to tackle me, it is possible Zichis might have reached N50

If discussions on a WhatsApp investment group or NSEMPA thread is all that it takes to move some of these stocks. Please, help me market and hype and market Transcorp Power I want it to get to my BE price to quickly exit. I don't normally like to sell stocks at a loss position. Everyday I come to meet full offer with maximum 10% down without a single bid. I hate to tie down my funds when there are better opportunities in the market

emmanuelewumi:
Stock price manipulators detest knowledge, market intelligence, valuation and independent indept stock analysis

Stocks move for various reasons....not ONLY Fundamentals....
You're again wrong by this quoted post!
Many knows beyond what you know...
Many can see beyond NOW...
Many are closer to source than you....

..and guess what?
They're highly intelligent, knowledgeable and are indept stock analysts!

The way things are moving ehn, i need 5 nay-sayers & 3 doom-sayers to demotivate me abeg

thebargainhunte:
You forgot to mention Totalenergies that our oga marketed here, he Japa and left the full offer for his disciplines, everybody here na hustler

Even when Total energies quarterly result became bad in one of the quarters, did the said "oga" attack those bashing the stock?
wasn't the "oga" proponent of Dangote Refinery destabilizing the downstream sector even believe Total energies result became bad.

Did he keep defending the stock without reason when total energies was rightly criticised? Or went on full offer? Wasn't he quiet having made so many projections before release of results

Are these not cues to sell if you were inside?
Or boldly ask the group for direct spoon feeding if you don't understand indirect body language.

Someone even posted a picture of total energies doing bonanza to buy fuel

If you follow the thread judiciously, you would see these things. Your Bias summary ommits critical and necessary details that skews perception and you know it. Unless you skip pages on the thread.

Zichis books are very clean!

chimex38:
Even when Total energies quarterly result became bad in one of the quarters, did the said "oga" attack those bashing the stock?
wasn't the "oga" proponent of Dangote Refinery destabilizing the downstream sector even believe Total energies result became bad.

Did he keep defending the stock without reason when total energies was rightly criticised? Or went on full offer? Wasn't he quiet having made so many projections before release of results

Are these not cues to sell if you were inside?
Or boldly ask the group for direct spoon feeding if you don't understand indirect body language.

Someone even posted a picture of total energies doing bonanza to buy fuel

If you follow the thread judiciously, you would see these things. Your Bias summary ommits critical and necessary details that skews perception and you know it. Unless you skip pages on the thread.

If I really have the time, I would have love to read this thread from page one. I started it some time ago but got tired. It would have helped me to know the antecedents of many and help me make informed decisions and opinions. Characters they say is formed from a daily habit. Most people hardly change, from someone's write-up you will be able to decipher such a person. But, in all this thread is made up of the good , the bad and the ugly.

Wish us all a fruitful trading day. If all goes well today should be payment day for NAHCO dividend. Thank God it is Friday.

Take a bird's eye view of the Quarter 1 results of Tier 1 Nigerian Banks (FUGAZ) placed side by side, vis a vis their share prices and market capitalization, and see if you are missing any gem hidden in plain sight.

https://www.cowryvest.com/2026/05/nigeria-tier-1-banks-q1-2026-results-analysis.html

Harddiskng:
The way things are moving ehn, i need 5 nay-sayers & 3 doom-sayers to demotivate me abeg

I also need them to crash the stock price of the stocks I am currently buying

yMcy56:
All these nonsense theories of the MD selling or caused the whole thing, is she the only MD that has sold in recent times?
Haven't we seen lots of Directors Dealings recently and lots of Cross Deals going on in the market.....huge numbers exchanging hands in almost all the stocks....

So selling 5M out of 120M amounts to running or what?
You forgot there's still a whole 115M left untouched?
So someone cannot sell again to take care of other needs or interests, but you just have to look for every means to justify nonsense?

If it's Tony or Alhaji that sells, it's fine but to the same stock you wish to run down, it's a crime.....
To haters, it's anything to back up hypocrisy.....
We've said it that valuation is not all about fundamentals alone.....
Even Agba with all his analysis of bear was proved wrong by Bull and Mr. Market...

We will all be alright las las.

Na so you throway stray bullet reach my side
Baby calm down o (in Rema's voice)
Abi you buy Zichis ni

Well Done!

emmanuelewumi:
The current PE is about 27 which I think is high, although Nahco is fond of proving me wrong again and again.


I rebalanced my portfolio about 2 weeks ago, I sold 250k units of Nahco, 45k units of Presco, the tasere Transcorp I have left.

jonnysessy:
If discussions on a WhatsApp investment group or NSEMPA thread is all that it takes to move some of these stocks. Please, help me market and hype and market Transcorp Power I want it to get to my BE price to quickly exit. I don't normally like to sell stocks at a loss position. Everyday I come to meet full offer with maximum 10% down without a single bid. I hate to tie down my funds when there are better opportunities in the market

So you be Gina partner in crime

naturalflow:
Zichis books are very clean!

Price Book Value ratio of 71 is abnormal for an average stock.

Investors will lose money buying an over priced stock

UPDC REIT was listed at N10 in 2013, yours truly bought at between N1.80k and N3.00 few years ago, it was this week that UPDC REIT touched N10. It happened 13 years after it was listed

SFS REIT was listed at N100 in 2008, 13 years after patient investors bought the shares at N60 in 2021.


It is very important not to over pay for an investment, that is why valuation is important after making adjustments for earning growth

I made the post ... lol

chimex38:
Someone even posted a picture of total energies doing bonanza to buy fuel

If you follow the thread judiciously, you would see these things. Your Bias summary ommits critical and necessary details that skews perception and you know it. Unless you skip pages on the thread.

are you talking of LOCO and stockhunters promoting Royalex at N2 promising it will get to 100 withing 6months

Seunn11:
The thinking that some people have exclusive call on stocks on this forum is dangerous for those who outsource their analyses.
No one was more against OANDO on this forum more than a particular elder on this forum. Any gains on the stock's share is always a trigger for viperous outbursts everytime. I even thought that he must have lost a great deal trading the stock. However, by his own admission, he never owns a single unit of the stock!!!!

What then was his grievance about?

Perhaps there is a new phenomenon that we can refer to as 'Anger of Missing Out' (AMO). The 'experts' think that if they did not see a new high potential stock in the horizon, then it should not appear. It should die before it grows.

No stocks suffer this bitter venom spitting more than Ellah, Oando and Zichis... in the hands of this 'elder stockman'.

yMcy56:
Don't mind them.....
It's typical of them here.....
You're a fundamentalist, fine! Stick to what works for you....

What's even happening/reigning in the market now is highly Sentimental (SA) more than FA/TA....
Quite some fundamental stocks are even over valued but because sentiments is reigning, investors were aligning more with them.

When he sold last two weeks he kept silent and didn't keep repeating it here....
In fact, Nsempas who followed him to buy are just getting to know...
Say your opinion and move on....
I don't see what's too difficult there.

His double standard is much!
Some of his valuations were build on HOPE...believing (FAITH) if they could generate certain revenue/PBT, the share price should sell for certain amount in the next 6 mths or a calendar year.......

** So what do we call this?
Is it not HOPE and FAITH?

😃 😀


It is well.

Seunn11:
The thinking that some people have exclusive call on stocks on this forum is dangerous for those who outsource their analyses.
No one was more against OANDO on this forum more than a particular elder on this forum. Any gains on the stock's share is always a trigger for viperous outbursts everytime. I even thought that he must have lost a great deal trading the stock. However, by his own admission, he never owns a single unit of the stock!!!!

What then was his grievance about?

Perhaps there is a new phenomenon that we can refer to as 'Anger of Missing Out' (AMO). The 'experts' think that if they did not see a new high potential stock in the horizon, then it should not appear. It should die before it grows.

No stocks suffer this bitter venom spitting more than Ellah, Oando and Zichis... in the hands of this 'elder stockman'.

@bolded, it's your inserted biased summary and omitting the "elders" reasons or strategies that are always in this thread whenever they make their post on the stock. Whether jijoing, short term investing, trading, or long term investment.

That's kinda mischievous to represent and bear false witness while inserting your comfortable meaning to sell your narrative.
Don't kinda miniaturize it to suit your narrative and present it as fact. Posting your interpretation as any "elders" perspective is biased.
Whatever they said is at an INSTANT- OF-TIME.
decision change based on new market info and it's always laid bare.


Their comments and analysis on stocks are targeted towards an average investor.
Not to most of you who quote them and kinda know better and yet feel it's directed at you.

Who's an average investor?

To me, an average investor is someone who does other businesses or salary earner, invests his savings and expects his investment to yield him dividends yearly with slight growth and the stock to have a minimum of 20%-30% capital appreciation per year. He has little or no time to check his investments daily or weekly or even monthly. So he looks for the mist viable options that can meet these minimum.
Like Aradel, Seplat, Nahco, the Banks, Okomu, Vitafoam, etc. That pays dividend with at least 20% price appreciation on average yearly.
That is the ideal expectation of an average investor both in this forum and outside it..

Tell me any ideal average investor who make up the majority and require those minimum expectations would invest in any of those stocks you are championing?
If you talk about making 300% or more , you are a trader not an investor. And thats also fine.
It's misaligned to now use your category to now whitewash people targeting those in other category.

The ideal investor who probably bought OandO at 25+ bargain price will only still be at 100% after 3yrs of investing with no financial dividend to help his life and family. How is this a good deal for him/her..He/she will definitely get frustrated and regret entering the stock while you as a trader is busy celebrating 300%+ in OandO, Ellah, Zichis. Your power as a trader is time-in-the market to buy and sell.


Most of those in OandO, Ellah in this forum are not your average investor. They are deep rooted advanced high-level investors who understands to a large extent, the intricacies of politics, time, patience, economy know that dividends aren't coming, not surprised, taken aback, by following up, they manage their frustration since they are well informed and up-to-date on the market, use if "patient" funds.
Braced themselves for the risk involved and absorb paper losses cuz they are targeting sth much bigger; reading AFS quarterly and following news and trends ,daily disclosures on a daily or weekly basis.

Comments by "supposed Elders" are not usually for them.


Even the average investor who probably checks his portfolio every 3 months or 6months will panic if he had seen oandO at 80+ and now 40+
Same with Ellah at over 19+ now under 10+.
Zichis tend to be following the same pattern except in their case they actually paid dividend and still have positive equity.

What do you advise such investors who makes up more then half of novices and newbies entering a stocks and want lesser risk and those in it. It's after time-in-the-market and experience they become bolder and switch to riskier investing habits or trading and jijoing habits. In that case they don't need to listen and consider the talks of the elders since they are now more aware and can take responsibility for their risks.

emmanuelewumi:
Price Book Value ratio of 71 is abnormal for an average stock.

Investors will lose money buying an over priced stock

UPDC REIT was listed at N10 in 2013, yours truly bought at between N1.80k and N3.00 few years ago, it was this week that UPDC REIT touched N10. It happened 13 years after it was listed

SFS REIT was listed at N100 in 2008, 13 years after patient investors bought the shares at N60 in 2021.


It is very important not to over pay for an investment, that is why valuation is important after making adjustments for earning growth

It will take Zichis 15 years to logically attain a price of N42, assuming Zichis can maintain a compounded annualized earning growth of 20% for the next 15 years and a PE of 10.

This is based on organic growth

thebargainhunte:
Dangote cement was over valued at N400+ last year? But people are buying it this year at N1100+ as undervalued assets and they are happy.Projecting the next junction to be N2000. Every investment comes with speculation, no body is too sure of anything. Convince your followers and you will get to your destination and you japa

Dangote cement started buying back shares in 2023 @ circa 300-330.
He bought in over 2 huge tranches or so on the floor..
It reduced the liquidity and thus share price has to adjust upward.
That alone will make 400+ undervalued sef in 2025 as you claim.

Hope Aradel won't point down with the demand for Dangote refinery IPO

emmanuelewumi:
Did he inform the house when he sold and why he sold.

With the coming on board of Dangote Refinery and the thinning margins of companies in the Petroleum products marketing sector it will be foolish for anybody to hold on to stocks in the sector

samarine:
Hope Aradel won't point down with the demand for Dangote refinery IPO

Please sell now in order to avoid that