Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (10545) - Nairaland
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 6:06pm On May 16 |
nosa2:Tinubu to Nigerians |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 6:08pm On May 16 |
HesInMe:Infrastructural deficit even in the next 30yre with any government in place and how chinko sabi maximise efficiency The cement companies have formed cabal the price is never coming down. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Teenaira: 6:15pm On May 16 |
emmanuelewumi:Dividend na water ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by edwardaigb: 6:31pm On May 16 |
nosa2:Vaulence, is that you? |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Rubyjade: 6:47pm On May 16 |
You are making an incredibly sharp, grounded point here. Looking at a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 71 through that lens really exposes the absurdity of market hype. To say, "Even in a magical world where we have zero expenses, no taxes, and workers labor for free, it would still take nearly three quarters of a century just to break even" is a fantastic, sobering reality check. Comparing that to Dangote Cement at 4.5 years perfectly highlights the difference between paying for actual, tangible substance versus buying into pure, unadulterated optimism. However, to play devil's advocate and look at why the market priced "Zichis" (or companies like it) that way before the fall, we have to look at the counter-argument. If we were to humanize the perspective of the investors who bought in at a 71 P/S ratio, their justification usually boils down to one word: scalability. 1. The "S-Curve" Growth Bet Investors buying at a 71 P/S ratio aren't assuming the current revenue figure will stay the same for 71 years. They are banking on exponential, explosive growth. *The Math They Are Visualizing: If a company is growing its revenue by 100% year-over-year, that 71x multiple shrinks drastically in just a few years. *The Reality Shift: If sales double every year, that 71-year payback period based on current revenue suddenly becomes a ~6-year payback period based on FUTURE revenue. Investors are buying the future, not the present. 2. Software vs. Brick-and-Mortar (The Margin Play) Comparing Zichis to Dangote Cement is a classic tech-versus-traditional-industry matchup. *Dangote Cement: To sell more cement, Dangote has to build more factories, buy more limestone, hire more truck drivers, and ship heavy physical goods. Their variable costs are high. A P/S of 4.5 is healthy because their net profit margins have a natural ceiling. *Tech/Software (Zichis): Once a piece of software or a digital platform is built, the cost to sell it to the 2nd user or the 2,000,000th user is practically zero. This means that while revenue is small today, tomorrow's revenue could carry a 80% or 90% profit margin. Investors tolerate a massive P/S ratio early on because they expect the eventual Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio to collapse into something highly profitable once the company matures. 3. Market Dominance and "Winner-Take-All" In modern markets, tech companies often operate in ecosystems where the winner takes the entire market (think Google in search, or Amazon in e-commerce). Investors backing a company at a 71 P/S ratio are often thinking: "If this company becomes the undisputed infrastructure for its industry, it will have pricing power. They can raise prices later, eliminate competitors, and turn on a massive money printing press." They view the high price today as a premium ticket to get into a monopoly tomorrow. The argument isn't entirely crazy in theory—it’s how companies like Amazon or Nvidia justified seemingly insane valuations for years before delivering massive profits. But your critique highlights the ultimate risk: perfection must be priced in. When a company is trading at a P/S of 71, absolutely nothing can go wrong. The moment growth slows down even a little bit, or macroeconomic conditions change, the illusion shatters, and the stock crashes back to earth—which sounds exactly like what happened to Zichis. Does the company have a realistic path to that kind of exponential growth, or was the market just high on pure speculation? emmanuelewumi: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 6:50pm On May 16 |
You can’t demand development without paying tax - President Tinubu. Me: You can’t demand tax without accountability. You can’t also tax people you have impoverished. You can’t tax people you have failed to protect. Tax is a quid pro quo thing. A government says: give me part of your money and in exchange we will provide an enabling environment for you to make more. We will provide you security. We will build you good roads, good affordable hospitals, housing, schools, and give you constant electricity. Which of these has the government done? -KAA #kaa_truths
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 7:01pm On May 16 |
Rubyjade:What am I missing in this post.The company in question is a poultry/fish farm not tech company. And the F has specified its present capacity of birds/fish.The small scale palm plantation on ground |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 7:03pm On May 16 |
Traders use every available information at a given time to decide on buy, sell or hold a stock on daily basis. An investor or trader who decides to sell a huge quantity of a stock can depress the upward price movement a bit. This can trigger Trader-A to factor this information based on his TA tools. He can decide to SELL alongside the selling trader or investor, HOLD by waiting for the sell pressure to be over as he expects further upside or take advantage and BUY more at that depressed price targeting a further upside.. Such Trader-A NEVER seeks out the person(s) who are selling and stops them-sellers from depressing the SP. Instead Trader-A FACTORS the effect of that selling action as a new information and decides on what next to do.. Same process should also be used by Trader-A when such new information involves mention and analysis of the same stock on a public forum or other social media outlets. Trader-A should weigh and FACTOR the significance of such info, either dismiss it entirely and HOLD, find it substantial enough to skew targeted expectation and SELL or simply find the comment supportive of his trade target and BUY more. If Trader-A feels he/she can engage the discuss and skew perception back to Trader-A's favour, fine. But not necessarily stop the messenger just as Trader-A did not attack and stop the seller, weak hands, profit takers from selling but makes use of the information. So Trader-A shouldnt try to stop the new information from the messenger on the forum and generally assume targeted bad intentions. Rather, make use of such new information as they come impromptu. Otherwise, It also means the selling-trader/Investor that's depressing the 10%-10% share price also has bad intentions as well which is a wrong notion to assume. Other reasons could include: 1)The selling-trader/investor(weak hands, profit takers ) could have met his/her target 2)has a pressing physical need. 3)seen a better opportunity elsewhere. 4) No longer believes in the stock future potential 5) Just decides to sell part of his holding for profit purposes only., etc Likewise the Analysis and discus on social media and forums; reasons could include: 1) Make aware to newbies investors to be careful of FOMO on a rising stock. 2)make aware to both investors and traders that its rise has gone far beyond it's fundamentals and might be nearing it's peak. 3)Make aware to those who traders/investors who still decides to buy the stock that the way they expect further returns of 20-100% (as the case maybe) from its current risky price should be the way they should expect further drop in price and be ready to average down if they decide to enter.. In summary: If profit takers aren't attacked by Trader-A but seen by the Trader as simply new available information for imprompt decision making on a daily basis, same also the comments and analysis of a stock on a public forum(supposedly unfavorable) should be seen as new information on a daily basis to make imprompt decisions as well...QED |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by awesomeJ(m): 7:05pm On May 16 |
Rubyjade:You should tag your AI slops accordingly. Better to put the labels at the start of the post. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by narite: 7:11pm On May 16 |
KarlTom:Well, she Boldly says SA makes more money than FA and TA, what do you think I should say? I am here for money. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by elpaso007: 7:11pm On May 16 |
Interesting conversation on this episode of Ugodre Drinks and Mics. Nigeria's macros reality and foreign partition in NGX were major highlights for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRxeT0rrYyg?si=LKfbO-ofTL3Hg2Hn |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 7:20pm On May 16 |
Rubyjade:Zichis not a Tech company.. Yes. I discussed this few pages back using the palm fruit yield as a catalyst for exponential growth..shorteneing the yrs to yield tangible return. (all things being equal sha). But its also good to see and visualize what the company represents in future if the current state is maintained as Emma presented it. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 7:25pm On May 16 |
narite:Lol.. I believe the SA being referred to here is "Sentimental" Analysis not "Spiritual" ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 7:30pm On May 16 |
Rubyjade:You should ask the following questions 1. Do they have a moat 2. Can they withstand the attacks from other competitor 3. How sustainable is a revenue growth of 100%. 4. This is an industry where we have a lot of operators that are far bigger and more efficient than Zichis even though they are private company, they will tell you that a Price Sale ratio of 71 even 10 is abnormal |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by crownprince2017: 9:19pm On May 16 |
Any market whisper to why fidson is rallying too fast, I just don't want to be behind the information curve because as price keeps increasing it becomes risky to hold the stock. I'm happy it's rallying but I'm also scared at the same time because the margin of error in earnings is declining very fast. Abi I'm the one being overwhelmed by overthinking. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 10:18pm On May 16 |
emmanuelewumi:Good observation BUT what if Zichis revenue growth rate (CAGR) in 5 years is 50%? That means by 2031, the P/S will be 9.5 years. A CAGR of 50% in 8 years will reduce it to 4.2 years. I don't know much about Zichis but i know some growth stocks that have more CAGR in revenue between 2020 to 2025. TIP CAGR is 90% and attached is a list of other stocks that have done that within the last 5 years. So while i don't have Zichis or fancy it, they may likely hit it if they put their house in order
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Pennystockwarri(m): 4:48am On May 17 |
https://open.spotify.com/episode/2KIUGXmIekG54mt4HgrwiI A few thoughts on Fidelity bank FY 2025 earnings |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by GeneralDae: 5:03am On May 17 |
crownprince2017:I am also interested in getting answers to this. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 5:25am On May 17 |
emmaodet:Learn to calculate these things yourself, we have a lot of wrong information on the internet. Compounded annualized revenue growth of 50% for 5 years is a tough one in the agricultural sector, because of the number of players in the sector. A Price Sale ratio of 9.5 is high, 2 to 4 is ideal depending on the industry and the profit margin. At a Price Sale ratio of 9.5 if the net profit margin is 50% the Price Earning ratio will be 19. The average net profit margin in the agricultural sector is about 30% so we should be looking at a Price Earning ratio of about 32 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 5:33am On May 17*. Modified: 9:56am On May 17 |
The 20 Most Illiquid Stocks on the NGX as at May 15, 2026 and Why This Matters More Than Returns Let me tell you something nobody is saying loudly enough right now. The NGX has been on fire. Stocks up 40%, 70%, even more. People are excited and honestly, they should be. A bull run is a beautiful thing. But there is a quiet danger hiding inside this excitement. And it is called illiquidity. Here is what illiquidity means in plain English: you can buy the stock today. You can watch the price go up. You can do the maths and feel rich on paper. But when the day comes that you need your money, when life happens, or the market turns, you cannot find anyone to buy it from you. You are stuck. That is not an investment. That is a trap with a nice-looking chart. So I pulled the data. Based on trading activity on 15 May 2026, these 20 stocks recorded the lowest trading volumes or zero activity on the entire NGX: 1. AFRINSURE 2. AFROMEDIA 3. AVAIF 4. BAPLC 5. EKOCORP 6. GOLDBREW 7. MOFIREIF 8. MULTITREX 9. JULI – 10. GEREGU (Geregu Power) 11. INFINITY 12. CNIF 13. CHELLARAM 14. MORISON 15. MULTIVERSE 16. ACADEMY 17. LIVINGTRUST 18. BETAGLAS m 19. ENAMELWA 20. NCR or similar thin names like AUSTINLAZ / others with under ~100k–few hundred k volume (exact ordering can vary slightly by source, but these consistently rank low). Now let me be fair. Some of these companies have solid fundamentals. Some may even deliver decent returns over time. This is not a list of bad companies. But fundamentals alone do not protect you if you cannot exit. Before you buy any stock , any stock at all , ask yourself one question: “If I need to sell this tomorrow, will there be a buyer on the other side?” Most investors obsess over buying. They research the price, the sector, the growth story. All of that matters. But the experienced investor knows that entering a trade is the easy part. Exiting is where the real skill lives. Because in the stock market, it is not a profit until you can actually spend it. Volumes shift frequently. Always do your own research before making any investment decision. Copied |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mfunkynation(m): 5:46am On May 17 |
I have been trap with number 10 like this... emmanuelewumi: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Pennystockwarri(m): 6:15am On May 17 |
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIFH8_LIlmw?si=D4DrJuuCbe8fBmf_ Fidelity bank fy 2025 earnings over view |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:16am On May 17 |
Mfunkynation:If you use TA, it would be harder for you to get trapped in an illiquid stock. First, don’t enter a stock if the average volume over 20 days is not at least 20 to 30 times the amount you are trading or investing. It is also good to track the moving average of the volume; when it starts dropping, you bale out. I also traded NCR during that high-liquidity period, made over 100%, and left early. Though, if the size of my investment had been much larger, I would have exited even earlier. Don’t put money into a stock when you are the one providing the liquidity. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmaodet: 6:35am On May 17 |
emmanuelewumi:I totally agree with you |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 9:01am On May 17 |
ositadima1:True.. .average traded volume should be far more than ones volume. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chimex38: 9:08am On May 17 |
Mfunkynation:Also time the quarterly results.. If the result are quite good, It may result in bids around that time frame. You can place your sell orders before or just after the results release to try and exit quickly in case of any fallout activity. Also positive sentimental news on the company or sector in general should take you to the bid/offer table for any activity.. Just keep trying. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by rmx: 10:36am On May 17 |
GeneralDae:Interesting 19b , that high What’s the valuation of mtn Nigeria |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by StockGiver: 12:17pm On May 17*. Modified: 12:46pm On May 17 |
rmx:• MTN NIGERIA ~ $12.5b • MTN GHANA ~ $8b |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by GeneralDae: 12:35pm On May 17 |
rmx:Sorry I got that from Claude AI and it got that from a blog that got it wrong. My mistake. MTN Ghana is $8 Billion and Ecobank is 3rd in their market after Ashanti Gold currently. MTN Nigeria is 17.2 trillion naira which is around $12.5 Billion |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 1:22pm On May 17 |
emmaodet:This table is very wrong. How many companies on ngx have been able to do 50%CAGR for 5yrs straight .I just dey see funny figures for some yeye companies Abi this is one time annual growth revenue for some of them but never CAGR of 50% Besides presco self has any company been able to do it on ngx |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 2:52pm On May 17 |
Dangote Cement was listed at N135 in 2010. It was when it got to around N200 that retail investors got the shares to buy on the floor. Assuming one was able to get the shares at N135 in 2010, based on the current price of the stock the compounded annualized growth rate of the stock price should be around 16%. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 2:53pm On May 17 |
Streetinvestor2:Reason why I told him to learn how to calculate those figures, we have a lot of wrong information on the net |
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