₦airaland Forum

Hmmmm

essentialone:
Conoil Plc declares a Dividend of 2 Naira...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcB3kXIztyU?si=jNG7sM8sBjKyFP67

A walk through Conoil audited FY 2025 earnings

Source for this sir?

The same man just issued a statement about a deal being closer than ever before.

See here,
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39y02x98k8o

SonofElElyonRet:
Iranian foreign affairs Minister killed in air strikes

Na so OandO run ua street

Jaakay:
Na so OandO run ua street

So it's today you know OandO is a dubious coy that's only meant for jijo

Agbalowomeri:
This bible verse na wicked verse

......... but very true

That Bible Verse is a justification for your Monica na!

STNWAUME:
So it's today you know OandO is a dubious coy

Like it or hate it, it may not be their fault. Once regulatory approval enters the picture, it is beyond their control. They are now in a joint venture with the government and other partners following their takeover of NAOC assets.

This is also to shareholders' advantage, as cowboy tendencies will diminish with serious-minded partners now in the mix. You can be sure that NNPCL and the other partners will do their own due diligence before endorsing any questionable moves.

A little perspective on Dangote Refinery. What do you think?

They might have benchmarked to get the valuation of $39B for the 1.4 mln capacity given that the Marathon is 2.9 mln capacity and it is an existing business valued at $78.

essentialone:
Oando Plc will proceed with formal publication of the 2025 AFS. This process is expected to be completed on or before June 12, 2026, after which the Company intends to publish its Q1 2026 Unaudited Financial Statements on or before 30 June 2026.

Today na June 12 oo. OOOOOAANDOOOOO. 😫

alezzy13:
Today na June 12 oo. OOOOOAANDOOOOO. 😫

So you no read "..... after which..."?

Wale didn't say 12th. He said after. Even July is after

elpaso007:
Source for this sir?

The same man just issued a statement about a deal being closer than ever before.

See here,
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c39y02x98k8o

If he's still alive then 'twas unconfirmed reports

https://x.com/samartoor3086/status/2064994214107365861

To me, the refinery is being overvalued at $39B qoute, so what valuation will it appreciate to?

ghm:
A little perspective on Dangote Refinery. What do you think?

Good question. Thank God for the PP leak. Even without a prospectus, analysts can make sound deductions.
Before now I have been having a rethink about my participation.
We keep trying to make sense of the opinions of market participants.

Byankee:
To me, the refinery is being overvalued at $39B qoute, so what valuation will it appreciate to?

Byankee:
To me, the refinery is being overvalued at $39B qoute, so what valuation will it appreciate to?

I don’t think the refinery is overvalued at $39.1 Billion. Compared to bigger refineries in Asia which people compare it with, they have a much more steady access to crude supply in Nigeria. They received 13 cargoes in May 2026 out of the 20 cargoes needed at full capacity and 15 cargoes needed for local supply.
They are in a free trade zone, meaning they would likely have better margins
The petrochemical facility is imbedded in the IPO as well.
Work to increase capacity is in full swing
Debt is low at $3.65 Billion

“ Refineries are commodity businesses — they trade on margins (the “crack spread”) between crude input and refined product output, not on revenue. The right valuation frameworks are EV/EBITDA and EV/capacity, not price-to-sales. Global refineries typically trade at 4–8x EBITDA, occasionally up to 10–12x for best-in-class assets.

Dangote Group revenues have grown from $3.3B to $18B over five years, while EBITDA grew from $1.8B to $2.8B over the same period.  That EBITDA growth is notably thin for such a revenue surge — a classic refinery problem: huge topline, squeezed margins.

The refinery is projected to generate ~$27B in annual revenue at full 650,000 bpd capacity.   At the IPO target valuation of $40–50B, that’s roughly 1.5–2x revenue — which is exactly where a refinery should trade.

At 8x EBITDA on ~$2.8B EBITDA, a fair value is around $22–28B. The current IPO target of $40–50B  is arguably already stretched vs. fundamentals, likely pricing in the expansion to 1.4M bpd and commodity upside”.

We are experiencing the Hotel California effect in Berger Paints: you can check in, but you can't check out. Lol

GeneralDae:
I don’t think the refinery is overvalued at $39.1 Billion. Compared to bigger refineries in Asia which people compare it with, they have a much more steady access to crude supply in Nigeria. They received 13 cargoes in May 2026 out of the 20 cargoes needed at full capacity and 15 cargoes needed for local supply.
They are in a free trade zone, meaning they would likely have better margins
The petrochemical facility is imbedded in the IPO as well.
Work to increase capacity is in full swing
Debt is low at $3.65 Billion

This is not a comparison, my friend; it is simply your list of Dangote Refinery's advantages.

I don't like it when something is presented as one thing when it is actually something else. If you want to make a comparison, then lay both sides out side by side and compare them objectively.

June 12 never reach? Oando?

I just checked it out. He's probably one the hindutva types...

I am careful with info they share. Too much propaganda.

SonofElElyonRet:
If he's still alive then 'twas unconfirmed reports

https://x.com/samartoor3086/status/2064994214107365861

Wale still the boss 😔

ghm:
Like it or hate it, it may not be their fault. Once regulatory approval enters the picture, it is beyond their control. They are now in a joint venture with the government and other partners following their takeover of NAOC assets.

This is also to shareholders' advantage, as cowboy tendencies will diminish with serious-minded partners now in the mix. You can be sure that NNPCL and the other partners will do their own due diligence before endorsing any questionable moves.

elpaso007:
I just checked it out. He's probably one the hindutva types...

I am careful with info they share. Too much propaganda.

Noted

GeneralDae:
“ Refineries are commodity businesses — they trade on margins (the “crack spread”) between crude input and refined product output, not on revenue. The right valuation frameworks are EV/EBITDA and EV/capacity, not price-to-sales. Global refineries typically trade at 4–8x EBITDA, occasionally up to 10–12x for best-in-class assets.

Dangote Group revenues have grown from $3.3B to $18B over five years, while EBITDA grew from $1.8B to $2.8B over the same period.  That EBITDA growth is notably thin for such a revenue surge — a classic refinery problem: huge topline, squeezed margins.

The refinery is projected to generate ~$27B in annual revenue at full 650,000 bpd capacity.   At the IPO target valuation of $40–50B, that’s roughly 1.5–2x revenue — which is exactly where a refinery should trade.

At 8x EBITDA on ~$2.8B EBITDA, a fair value is around $22–28B. The current IPO target of $40–50B  is arguably already stretched vs. fundamentals, likely pricing in the expansion to 1.4M bpd and commodity upside”.

INVESTING IN DANGOTE REFINERY IPO VS INVESTING IN OKONMU OIL PLC OR PRESCO PLC

CAVEAT: THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE...IT IS JUST ME OFFERING HONEST KNOWLEDGE BASED ENLIGHTENMENT/EDUCATION TO MY FOLLOWERS.

The other day, Femi was all over the news media , regaling us with how he has been begging his friend to allow him have more stakes in the upcoming IPO and private placement offering of 10% his refinery shares and listing on the floor of the NSE ....

Before you get carried away by the mind games of "big men", .. kindly take out time to separate and digest conventional facts, from surreal fictions or unusual comet occurrences/appearances.

PRESCO AND OKONMU ARE PALM OIL PROCESSING AND PRODUCING COMPANIES ...

Over the last 20 years, the average annual ROE...Return on Equity of these listed companies on the floor of the Nigeria Stock Exchange has hovered between 43% to 57% and 35% to 55% respectively[ Please fact check this).

CRUDE OIL REFINERY

The average Return on Investment (ROI) or Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for independent crude oil refining companies typically sits between 8% and 15% during standard market years.

However, because oil refining is a highly cyclical, capital-intensive, and volatile commodity industry, this average is highly misleading on its own.

Depending on global macroeconomic factors, returns can spike above 35% during structural supply deficits [ JUST LIKE WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING HOSTILITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST BETWEEN ISRAEL/US VS IRAN]

The ROI of Crude oil refining companies generally collapse into low single digits (or negative territory) during capacity gluts or when there are no such unusual global war or hostilities.

Take for instance, the average Return on Equity (ROE) for major listed crude oil refineries globally , such as [Reliance Industries and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited ] generally ranges from 10% to 20%, though it fluctuates significantly depending on global commodity spreads and geopolitical factors ]

Kindly also note that these identified listed Companies even have this average ROI of upto 20%, because they are integrated with upstream crude oil production/petrochemical units.

Kindly note that while fossil fuel and fossil fuel derivatives demands may slow down, as the world evolves, leans towards and pursues more green and cleaner energies sources, the demand for the crude palm oil and palm oil derivatives will continue to rise

Are you aware that currently Indonesia today, is converting its POME- Palm Oil Mass Effluents] into climate friendly aviation fuel production ingredients ?

Before, they manipulate your minds and decisions , just like they did between 2007 to 2009, please think and reason properly

If you have extra change in your pocket and you dont know what to do with it, [ if you are from the South of Nigeria], kindly go to your village, get cheap land and plant palm trees, cocoa or MORINGA OLIFERA TREES, and plant bamboo trees around it as a wall , spaced 20 cm apart[ with castor seeds in between to ward off ruminants ]

As you long as there is security of lives and properties in your community, and you are able to keep off the TERRORISTS, MASQUERADING AS HERDSMEN,.. You will over the years, have massive appreciation of in the values of both your land and BEARER BIOLOGICAL ASSETS [ Moringa, Palm or Cocoa plants], planted there in ..

A word is enough for the wise ...

You can reach us on whats app 08134441140 for probono counseling..

www.sefapcol.com

www.usebazaar.africa

OBIARAERI, Nnaemeka Onyeka, FICA, MIRA

As seen in the news

This girl should be shut up 🤐.

megawealth01:
As seen in the news

https://open.spotify.com/episode/7cT80RD4UE2TFU42gKhVkq

A N100 thesis for Custodian Investment

She is the bone in the neck of this government

presiade:
This girl should be shut up 🤐.