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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (10680) - Nairaland

Nairaland ForumNairaland GeneralInvestmentNigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts (16196016 Views)

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Shalom428: 4:02pm On Jun 25
Companies with strong Q2 results should enjoy some respite in July and August. That window may provide an opportunity for those wishing to bail out, because afterwards, it will be ‘to your tents, O Israel

Shalom
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MODESTY2024: 4:13pm On Jun 25
For some stocks, no bailing out until target price attained. It's all a game. Shake out weak hands and transfer wealth

Shalom428:
Companies with strong Q2 results should enjoy some respite in July and August. That window may provide an opportunity for those wishing to bail out, because afterwards, it will be ‘to your tents, O Israel

Shalom
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 4:14pm On Jun 25
stokfrick:
There won't be much bear, cos the forthcoming election outcome is very predictable and almost like walk in the park for the incumbent government.
You can tell from the recent elections.
You lie.The failed government will be kicked out next yr. I thought they could Sustain one thing they call achievement. Which is the ASi.Then again they are failing on it so the market will soon enter speed line of red till the failed government is kicked out.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by KarlTom: 4:19pm On Jun 25
ARADEL. -10.00%
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. ±
OandO. -8.47%
SEPLAT. ±
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 4:22pm On Jun 25
Oasisblue:
“My first interpretation of the H2 2026 outlook is in the context of the pre-election year we are currently in. In pre-election years, the stock market tends to be strong from January to May, and then we start seeing some weakening from June. That decline tends to be very strong in August and September — in fact, in the pre-election years we analysed, the ASI was actually negative in both months.”- Mr. Abiodun Ogunniyi, Head of Research, GTI Securities

It will be terrible if this trend continues till August! sad
Very soon the few foreign investors go begin pull thr money to be on safe side.The next election is declaration of war against the Nigerian people by failed government which believe they can rig to remain in power.As it equally failed in all most needed aspects of leadership. The Nigerian youths are ready to take back thr future destiny. Have you heard the failed government mentioning of cgt on ngx again as everywhere dey red
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 4:22pm On Jun 25
OANDO case eh grin
KarlTom:
ARADEL. -10.00%
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. ±
OandO. -8.47%
SEPLAT. ±
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 4:23pm On Jun 25
Nawaho
Tendd:
The bearish trend might continue till early next year.
On another news,SpaceX is asking for a new loan of about 20 billion dollars from investors or creditors,after the recent trillion dollar lPO.lnteresting!
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by thebargainhunte:
megawealth01:
OANDO case eh grin
grin grin grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 5:02pm On Jun 25
Tendd:
The bearish trend might continue till early next year..
No one can categorically predict market direction, I don't subscribe to all these theories aimed at scaring investors...

One major factor responsible for this red is the Dangote Refinery listing...
Even before now, I'd suspect that funds will be pulled out in form of profit taking to participate in the private placement/IPO......and the movers and shakers of the market are all participating, so attention distracted for now, leaving the market for retailers to be panic selling..

These set of people are coming back once they sight the damages that retailers must have done to prices.....

Also, by September, all things being equal, Nigeria will be classified into Frontier Market category and, once the terms are favourable, foreign investors will come in and increase their participation in the market........this will drive the prices up.....


** Caveat: Not to be taking as any form of advice**
** My Oga shared this same view as well**
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56: 5:10pm On Jun 25
In addition, haven't we noticed the increase in Cross Deals in recent times?
If we say someone or an entity is selling, then who are the buyers?
Because there can't be sellers without buyers.......
Who are they crossing these humongous volumes to?

Someone crossed 40M units of DANGCEM in a single deal for instance, who was this crossed to and why?
Otedola keeps accumulating FBNH, why is he increasing his stakes here?
These are some of the questions begging for answers..
I think we shouldn't dwell on the selling part alone.....but also consider the buying part as well......

I even wish the DANGREFINE quantities available won't go round for them all, so they can return the monies to equity market...
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 5:28pm On Jun 25
megawealth01:
OANDO case eh grin
Una wan send Peter back to village

Meanwhile Oando no benefit from Iran Bull but it's leading the Iran Bear grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 5:33pm On Jun 25
grin
Agbalowomeri:
Una wan send Peter back to village

Meanwhile Oando no benefit from Iran Bull but it's leading the Iran Bear grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 5:49pm On Jun 25
grin
Shalom428:
Companies with strong Q2 results should enjoy some respite in July and August. That window may provide an opportunity for those wishing to bail out, because afterwards, it will be ‘to your tents, O Israel

Shalom
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by HesInMe: 5:58pm On Jun 25
LOL. The men are being separated from the boys nah. What stage of grief are you now in?

1. Shock > 2. Denial > 3. Anger > 4. Bargaining > 5. Depression > 6. Testing > 7. Acceptance

Shalom428:
Companies with strong Q2 results should enjoy some respite in July and August. That window may provide an opportunity for those wishing to bail out, because afterwards, it will be ‘to your tents, O Israel

Shalom
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by deathwing(m): 5:58pm On Jun 25
I think when sentiments sour, or this rebalancing thing happens, it becomes a buyer's market. Buyers know the stuff is undervalued and are getting it for cheap while sellers are possibly locking in their gains to seek other opportunities (don't forget these are multibillionaires playing on a different level). Who wouldn't have paid 800 for Dangcem in this market?

Despite the weekly reds we are getting, I believe the key to wealth creation is accumulating at this point because soon all this red will become a funny memory. It happened in the US when Trump stated talking tarrif. Some ran away from the market while some of us bought up at historic lows. One year later, I look at my Nvidia/Google I bought for almost nothing and smile. They should not return the money to the market, the market needs more width. More people will join. Just take advantage of the red now before it becomes 'had I known'

yMcy56:
In addition, haven't we noticed the increase in Cross Deals in recent times?
If we say someone or an entity is selling, then who are the buyers?
Because there can't be sellers without buyers.......
Who are they crossing these humongous volumes to?

Someone crossed 40M units of DANGCEM in a single deal for instance, who was this crossed to and why?
Otedola keeps accumulating FBNH, why is he increasing his stakes here?
These are some of the questions begging for answers..
I think we shouldn't dwell on the selling part alone.....but also consider the buying part as well......

I even wish the DANGREFINE quantities available won't go round for them all, so they can return the monies to equity market...
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 6:07pm On Jun 25
Make una begin help us count 52-weeks low
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 6:16pm On Jun 25
grin
Agbalowomeri:
Make una begin help us count 52-weeks low
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 6:17pm On Jun 25
This is NGX ooooo
deathwing:
I think when sentiments sour, or this rebalancing thing happens, it becomes a buyer's market. Buyers know the stuff is undervalued and are getting it for cheap while sellers are possibly locking in their gains to seek other opportunities (don't forget these are multibillionaires playing on a different level). Who wouldn't have paid 800 for Dangcem in this market?

Despite the weekly reds we are getting, I believe the key to wealth creation is accumulating at this point because soon all this red will become a funny memory. It happened in the US when Trump stated talking tarrif. Some ran away from the market while some of us bought up at historic lows. One year later, I look at my Nvidia/Google I bought for almost nothing and smile. They should not return the money to the market, the market needs more width. More people will join. Just take advantage of the red now before it becomes 'had I known'
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Olaide1295: 6:20pm On Jun 25
Streetinvestor2:
Very soon the few foreign investors go begin pull thr money to be on safe side.The next election is declaration of war against the Nigerian people by failed government which believe they can rig to remain in power.As it equally failed in all most needed aspects of leadership. The Nigerian youths are ready to take back thr future destiny. Have you heard the failed government mentioning of cgt on ngx again as everywhere dey red
One would think you speak on behalf of the youth.
Many of us are convinced that PBAT is the most capable of the available candidates. Tested and proven to deliver our country from macroeconomic crisis. 4 more years to go, Rejoice!
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Shalom428: 6:21pm On Jun 25
This is starting to look like an obsession. While this forum may act as a leveler, each of us plays in different leagues. Even if I chose never to touch NGX again, my passive income alone is more than enough to secure the kind of life many only dream of. Some of us simply brag differently—even when we choose modesty.

If you’re already losing sleep at this stage, what will you do when the real bear shows up? If you’re not a boy, you wouldn’t be so triggered by my statement. Yet you keep quoting it and returning to it every time. I’m convinced you’ve been repeating it in your dreams since I posted it. You need healing, BOY

HesInMe:
LOL. The men are being separated from the boys nah. What stage of grief are you now in?

1. Shock > 2. Denial > 3. Anger > 4. Bargaining > 5. Depression > 6. Testing > 7. Acceptance
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by narite: 6:41pm On Jun 25
Olaide1295:
One would think you speak on behalf of the youth.
Many of us are convinced that PBAT is the most capable of the available candidates. Tested and proven to deliver our country from macroeconomic crisis. 4 more years to go, Rejoice!
Are you really for real? cry
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Pennystockwarri(m): 6:41pm On Jun 25
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by HesInMe: 6:47pm On Jun 25
Man grin

Shalom428:
This is starting to look like an obsession. While this forum may act as a leveler, each of us plays in different leagues. Even if I chose never to touch NGX again, my passive income alone is more than enough to secure the kind of life many only dream of. Some of us simply brag differently—even when we choose modesty.

If you’re already losing sleep at this stage, what will you do when the real bear shows up? If you’re not a boy, you wouldn’t be so triggered by my statement. Yet you keep quoting it and returning to it every time. I’m convinced you’ve been repeating it in your dreams since I posted it. You need healing, BOY
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Itzlinda(f): 6:59pm On Jun 25
Historically in every pre-election year, from 2014 to date, there is weakness in the market that persist from May till around November.

In 2022, the market dropped 20% from May and find bottom in November.

In 2018, the weakeness start early in the year and the market went sideways and find bottom in April 2020 dropping around 54% from high. This was aggravated by pandemic.

In 2014, the weakeness started from June till December with ASI losing 48%.

There is no 2011 data. This means historically, pre-election years are generally weak for Nigerian stock market.

Similarly, this year, the market top on 11 may and the market is down around 9% so far.

How low the market could go is difficult to predict. Nigeria is in different fiscal position compared with the three pre-election years mentioned above.

If we go by the recent dropped we had in the market in 2022. I expect the market to shade another 10% from the current valuation between now to the end of this year
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Pennystockwarri(m): 7:04pm On Jun 25

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rBhImN3wmgo?si=OQh_2QGXrMnhHsMH

A summary of today's trading session on the NGX
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 7:18pm On Jun 25
Dangote Refinery Reduces Fuel Price To ₦1125/litre grin
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by stokfrick: 7:36pm On Jun 25
megawealth01:
Dangote Refinery Reduces Fuel Price To ₦1125/litre grin
It's still too high
As at mid to late February before the Iran war started, brent was 70-75 while pump price of fuel was b/w 815-850
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by awesomeJ(m): 7:36pm On Jun 25
In my own opinion though, elections effects are being overstated. It's less than 10% of the reasons for this current trend.

We had excessive optimism between February and April, market surged about 50% in 3 months, valuations got overstretched. We overbought.

So, it's just basic correction from profit taking. People are taking profit and rotating their assets into other instruments like fixed income and dangote refinery. Some of us to chop life.( I have now gone off grid and enjoy 24/7 power)

I think 220k will certainly hold, and July will be green.

All these projections of multi-month reds are not likely to hold.

220k -230k is a good place to start buying this market again.

Valuations are gradually returning to healthy multiples, and so long the underlying businesses remain fundamentally sound, we're fine.


This is a market where we buy into companies making real monies, so trying to tie it to trends about elections would be more relevant to assets like Bitcoin that have no underlying value generation.

Cryptos and such assets which lack underlying fundamentals can move with any pattern: frequency of Trump's tweets(or truths), volatility of the NASDAQ composite, Bitcoin halving, sometimes even just bad weather 😁😁, so tying them to elections wouldn't be out of place, cos they can share good correlation with anything 😁.


But you come to the stock market, you mention election years without looking at what the earnings of the underlying businesses were in those years, what multiples was the market trading? What were fixed income yields, you ignore the core determinants and focus on just one immaterial factor as if na horoscope buyers take dey open positions.


Similar to someone expecting a crash in crude oil prices now to crash the market as much as it did in 2020 without that person looking at how much of the market is now held locally vs by FPIs in 2020. Should crude crash again, the market will sell off, but it would be no where near the severity of the 2020 sell off. Simply cos majority of the people selling are no longer foreigners

This market is more developed compared to what we had in say 07, when people who probably couldn't even spell the word "shares" were buying shares, if they couldn't spell, they certainly weren't buying based on PE or dividend yields. Valuations at those periods were also almost at a disconnect from the underlying businesses.


If elections would have significant impact on the market, 2015 and 2023 elections were better poised, this next one, even a amateur analyst can call, well except of course the majority of us decide to go out and vote instead of "delegating" to the same regular people.


That's my opinion, I hope it conveys some level of optimism.

Market isn't going below 220k, GTCO isn't going below #100, so maybe plan with those supports.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by awesomeJ(m): 7:45pm On Jun 25
Also if it helps, I was among the first to call for this correction. I did that here around April.

I predicted 200k while some people projected 250k we were then at 230k or so.

My 200k prediction was based on the fact that we needed to maintain healthy valuations in the market and not make it seem like another money making magic.


The market defied my projection(always temporarily) but is now aligning.

So this new one might also be defied for a few weeks, but good news is that it will eventually align and the bulls will be back to everyone's delight.

I upped from 200k to 220k mostly cos of AIRTELAFRI which by itself will have added that 20k difference by the time it settles at its market price of N6500.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ppogba: 7:49pm On Jun 25
megawealth01:
Dangote Refinery Reduces Fuel Price To ₦1125/litre grin
That is unfair of Oga Dangote.

The pre- war price of crude was $68.
Crude is $73 now.

The pre war price of petrol was N800+

Offering us N1125 minus other charges that will take it to the pump is to say the least unfair.

All those shouting Monopoly actually have a point at this point in time.

Oga Dangote, if you are reading this, please consider your fellow citizens.

Nagode Sir.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by stokfrick: 7:55pm On Jun 25
Streetinvestor2:
You lie.The failed government will be kicked out next yr. I thought they could Sustain one thing they call achievement. Which is the ASi.Then again they are failing on it so the market will soon enter speed line of red till the failed government is kicked out.
Hmm, and if they don't get kicked out?
Emotions don't win elections in Nigeria.
We go dey here now.
But I for like make them kick am out oh, but if we face the facts, presently e go hard.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 8:45pm On Jun 25
I hope the cost of transportation is lower now?
ppogba:
That is unfair of Oga Dangote.

The pre- war price of crude was $68.
Crude is $73 now.

The pre war price of petrol was N800+

Offering us N1125 minus other charges that will take it to the pump is to say the least unfair.

All those shouting Monopoly actually have a point at this point in time.

Oga Dangote, if you are reading this, please consider your fellow citizens.

Nagode Sir.
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