₦airaland Forum

mikeapollo:
B
I would be surprised if the refinery has already done share split in a company that is just starting operations.
We also need to confirm if the IPO is an Offer for Sale or Offer for Subscription

Intl Breweries has an OS of about 120b shares yet it recorded gains in price even though it has been reportilng osses for a while.

Agbalowomeri:
Na today you begin do IPO? It will be oversubscribed and will be prorated

mank1234:
I no dey buy again
120b to 4.3b.
After listing, those private loaders would offload at a cheaper price.

Meerahbel:
Private placer cannot offload until a specific number of years.

SonofElElyonRet:
I fit get 5,000 units in the IPO? I no get monwey someone go tie down come return later . Dem fit return money for 10,000 units application

francesfrances:
Private placement price = $0.35 (N463)
Ipo price = $0.40 (N525)
PP Price appreciation = 14%
Proposed Mcap = $47b to $50b

Zagee:
If I remember clearly, enlisted Marathon is not just a standalone refinery. It also houses a fertiliser plant and some other divisions.

londonerr:
Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical company.

Stockhunter:
If the IPO is oversubscribed, they might release more units instead of returning money so everyone gets alloted. 120 billion plus OS no be joke. Well except for buyers of so many billion units that want to take over the refinery. So i think for retail, their funds may not be returned. until we see the prospectus though.

I tried calculating 120 billion times 525 my phone calculator give me error😂😄

jonnysessy:
Now that a price and date has been fixed for Dangote Refinery IPO. The thread is now dominated by analysis ( those buying, those that will not buy, those that doesn't even have money). Full details of the IPO is only contained in the prospectus which i know is not yet out. This will be one of the most hyped stock I have witnessed in a long while. This is just the beginning as the topic of discussion will not change until the initial public offering come and go. I have been privy to a guy on u- tube who said he won't buy the IPO because he was sure it will be oversubscribed. He even went ahead and listed about 13 stocks he would buy instead. He said the stocks will do because of the coming of Dangote Refinery. We also want to see the effects of this IPO on the NGX as a lot of analyst predicted the fall of prices of already quoted companies on the NGX because they would exit some of their already held positions to be part of the IPO. I really don't like the idea. Why put your two feet inside the water when you are actually testing the water. Why leave a known position to go for an unknown position. People will say all manners of things about this IPO just to belong.

My point is that whatever decision you are making, let it be your own decision. Don't let it be a bandwagon effect. It is when a topic is in the public domain that you see everyone will turn to an expert. Some will tell you to do something while he is not do the the same. Everyone will want to be relevant even in a faceless forum like this. I imploy you to read all but, the decision to buy or not to buy lies with you. Yours truly will definitely also buy a few units ( that which i can afford) and not for you to go and borrow to buy a stock. I can't even sell my already investment yielding something nice to go and chase after Dangote Refinery. As the saying goes is is risk not to take risk. This IPO is an opportunity in a life time. But, also know that after the IPO, it will later be listed on the NGX. Hence, if you miss out. You still gave a good opportunity to enter.

Lesson learnt: Always do your due diligenceas you remain the CEO of your portfolio

A word they say is enough for the wise.

londonerr:
No they'll activate more units.... that's the greenshoe clause in the offer

A greenshoe option also called an over-allotment option is a special clause in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) underwriting agreement that allows underwriters to sell up to 15% more shares than originally planned if public demand is very high....every body must enter the one chance

presiade:
Permit me to drop this here.

The United Nations recently voted on representing the African continent according to its true scale on a map, and here is how the member countries voted:

PuristForest:
Over the weekend, AGO price slipped from 1700 to above 2000 Naira. People will say its because of the war in Iran, understood! but we are gradually sliding into a manufacturing crisis, much of the selloff we are seeing in the market is energy related, The crisis facing modern manufacturers and businesses due to skyrocketing diesel prices mirrors the exact structural failures that decimated Kaduna’s textile industry in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Energy poverty, compounded by logistical sabotage and cheap imports, turned what was once West Africa's industrial powerhouse into a graveyard of abandoned factories.

The Energy Trap: LPFO vs. AGO
Just as factories today are heavily reliant on diesel (AGO) to bypass a failing national grid, Kaduna's textile mills originally relied on Low Pour Fuel Oil (LPFO) to run their heavy industrial boilers, steam plants, and generators. However, local manufacturers faced a crippling paradox: subsidized LPFO meant for domestic industries was routinely smuggled across borders or diverted by corrupt cartels for illicit profit.

Factories were left high and dry, completely unable to access regulated LPFO on the open market. To stay alive, management was forced to purchase expensive Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) as a substitute. Running continuous, power-hungry textile operations—spinning, weaving, and dyeing lines—on exorbitant diesel prices quickly destroyed operating margins, making local production financially impossible

The Kaduna Textile Collapse
The combination of energy starvation, obsolete machinery, and an influx of cheap foreign fabrics shuttered major giants in Kaduna. The prominent textile mills that folded during this era include:

Kaduna Textiles Limited (KTL): The historic pace-setter established in the 1950s, which finally collapsed in 2002.
Nortex (Nortex Nigeria Ltd): Ceased operations around 2003.
FinTex (Finetex Ltd): Closed down during the same cluster period in 2003.
Supertex: Another major name that succumbed to the harsh economic climate.
United Nigerian Textiles Limited (UNTL): Though operating slightly longer, it eventually buckled under the same systemic pressures, closing its massive complex later in the decade.
Arewa Textiles Plc shut down its operations permanently in January 2005, leaving behind a long-standing battle over unpaid worker entitlements and laying off thousands of employees
Nichemtex also ceased its major active manufacturing operations years ago following severe financial struggles, regulatory enforcement actions over environmental issues, and the broader collapse of the domestic textile sector.
Others like Chelco and Poly Fibre also went under, wiping out tens of thousands of direct jobs.

Can you imagine that at least 100,000 to 350,000 people would have been affected directly or indirectly by these shutdowns in the Northcentral within this period of 2000 - 2006...the ghost towns left behind by energy poverty and structural neglect did not just cost Nigeria its industrial pride—they manufactured the very socio-economic despair and restive, unemployed youth bulge that later made northern Nigeria a fertile ground for radicalization and insurgent recruitment......

The Parallel to Today
When fuel and energy inputs double overnight, businesses cannot absorb the shock indefinitely. Just as the diversion of LPFO starved Kaduna mills of affordable fuel decades ago, modern spikes in diesel prices strip contemporary manufacturers and businesses of working capital. If energy overheads outpace what consumers can pay, history shows that factories and businesses will inevitably downsize/shut down, transforming vibrant industrial zones into silent monuments of unemployment. Do with this post whatever you wish, but be smart with your investments and diversify.

deathwing:
This is a complete non-issue that Africans should have been embarrassed to bring up. Do your own maps and hang it in your schools. You don’t have to ask or petition anybody. If the continent agrees to adopt it, then everyone talking to Africans will be forced to use it. If the US accepts, does it suddenly increase our GDP or make us a military power? We are begging people whose poorest countries are richer than our richest for recognition. SMH

Raider76:
Lol. Convert the price of 525 to $ at N1,400/$. The 120b OS will give a valuation of $45b. At this valuation if they were to say make the OS 20b, which is the type of OS we are used to, the share price will come to N3,150.00. With this the same people complaining that 120b OS is too high will say they are being priced out. So Alhaji really wants the common man to have a shot at owning pieces of the refinery. But Alhaji may also be targeting something in return. Imagine the price moves to N1500 in 2yrs. He will be worth over $100b on the Forbes billionaire list.

Rubyjade:
Refinery with similar capacity around the world are valued between $(17-18)bn, why is alhaji own vakaued almost times two with it contemporary?

Meerahbel:
If it's subscription, I'd pay particular attention to what the company plans to do with the money. If it's sale, I'd want to understand why existing shareholders are selling and who exactly is selling.

SonofElElyonRet:

You and mikeapollo sha dey market Oando. Una marketing don dey work on me

mikeapollo:
They want to use the money to expand Lekki refinery from 650,000 to 1.4m barrels per day and also to build the Kenya refinery.
Alhaji Dangote will the one selling because he is the sole or overwhelming majority shareholder right now

deathwing:
The AKK pipeline project includes provided gas power to the textile clusters of the north. The NNPC oga spoke frequently of this last year

Mpeace:
I think this IPO and the listing will gradually bring Dangote to top 10 Forbes list of billionaires.

francesfrances:
Please, due diligence is advised

For your investment in this refinery at N525 to generate a return of at least x1 or x2. It implies this refinery valuation has to increase to >90 billion USD or >141 billion USD. Currently, it's rare to find any refinery with petrochemical industry with even a valuation of 60 billion USD

francesfrances:
Please, due diligence is advised

For your investment in this refinery at N525 to generate a return of at least x1 or x2. It implies this refinery valuation has to increase to >90 billion USD or >141 billion USD. Currently, it's rare to find any refinery with petrochemical industry with even a valuation of 60 billion USD

mikeapollo:
They want to use the money to expand Lekki refinery from 650,000 to 1.4m barrels per day and also to build the Kenya refinery.
Alhaji Dangote will the one selling because he is the sole or overwhelming majority shareholder right now

megawealth01:
Body go tell una

SonofElElyonRet:
Agba said Kenya refinery is a different enterprise