₦airaland Forum

GeneralDae:
Most of the debts are owed to DIL (Dangote Industry Limited) because Dangote used his cement equity for the most part to build the refinery. Remember cement alone was the core part of his $25 Billion networth in 2014 which dropped significantly afterwards.

Whr are u getting this information DL still owes 86% of Dangote Cement. It was about 5% it did let go for for the refinery purpose. I think it controlled like 91% previously. Not very sure again

lawani:
It does not change the market capitalization of the company nor does it increase the stake of any share holder. All it does is share the company into more tiny pieces like cutting a cake into four pieces instead of into two. If you held fifty percent you will now have two pieces instead of one

And how did you get to know about this.I am just wondering

Stockpromoter:
What do you expect when everyone is invited to buy Dangote IPO with less than 10k?
People are buying with expectations.
When they finally list at NGX,people will expect the price to rise.This is where I have a problem.
My problem is that I will like to buy it then at N300 and this will lead to another red which might introduce the real bears to the market.

I am sensing a market crash post listing of Dangote Refinery.

The regulators will later regret why they brought a monopoly company to list at the exchange.

Dangote will monopolize NGX join to their business

The free float could be less than 3billion units because a lot of institutional investors and HNI will be buying the IPO as well.
So who would sell his/her refinery share at N300 to anyone when the cost was N525 and they know the prospects?
The price may come down a bit but a 40% discount is unrealistic.

mikeapollo:
The free float could be less than 3billion units because a lot of institutional investors and HNI will be buying the IPO as well.
So who would sell his/her refinery share at N300 to anyone when the cost was N525 and they know the prospects?
The price may come down a bit but a 40% discount is unrealistic.

I go buy that stock #400 on ngx.pls book mark this my post for me for the future. I no too sabi dig out old post...lol
That is at discount from PP offer

Streetinvestor2:
Whr are u getting this information DL still owes 86% of Dangote Cement. It was about 5% it did let go for for the refinery purpose. I think it controlled like 91% previously. Not very sure again

From Google and Bloomberg

lawani:
What is being sold of the company is what one entity can buy and wants to buy. So how can the value crash? It can only crash if Dangote himself wants to offload but there is a way around that which is off market buying or what is it called. Anybody he is selling to will buy everything off market and there will be no upheaval. The refinery price is fair as it is. It will still rise in future

Thank God they are listing by ending of the year.
I will expect a general rally after their IPO which will end on the 13th of October.
I will stay out of the market at the listing of Dangote Refinery because I want it at N300 and you know what that can cause to other stocks.
When it sneeze,other stocks must bow.
When it sheds 10-30%,every stock must tremble.

awesomeJ:
It should be that you don't like likes from others too for your stance to be balanced.

That you rarely like posts isn't anything special.

It'd be hypocritical if you rarely like posts but enjoy when others like yours.

That's how some people find it difficult to say thank you or I love you to the right persons etc.

I hope you're not some people.

I really get what you mean.

I never want my not liking comments by others to be something special. I know what I wish to be special to people.

Maybe I should start liking but actually, there are comments that what I feel about them is not even likeness but real LOVE. I read them, feel them in my spirit and appreciate them but I don't know whether you just get that feeling of " oh , waoh, what a wonderful comment" and you just move on.

All the same, it is not enough to take me to the Golgotha on a reddish afternoon.

Point taken.

mikeapollo:
The free float could be less than 3billion units because a lot of institutional investors and HNI will be buying the IPO as well.
So who would sell his/her refinery share at N300 to anyone when the cost was N525 and they know the prospects?
The price may come down a bit but a 40% discount is unrealistic.

You forgot the coming of a new president can cause the stock to sneeze.
Do you think the opposition parties are in support of monopoly.
We are here watching closely.
My own is to buy at N300 and that will not be a good news to other stocks

Streetinvestor2:
Lol because someone who hates a drug baron was quoted. That was what the response too was all about in that your friend post.So I saw it as trash because I was not playing politics in my Dangote refinery discussions.
I have no reason to do that now
His achievements on that refinery was Buhari/emefule only achievements. And never this government...go and verify
Oga you like can not boil water for anyone on earth on NL

Receive deliverance by 🔥.
Amen, amen and Amen.

Streetinvestor2:
I go buy that stock #400 on ngx.pls book mark this my post for me for the future. I no too sabi dig out old post...lol
That is at discount from PP offer

Possible but not enough reason not to buy now. The company as it is is capable of making over one billion dollars in annual profit and therefore it is worth over 40 billion dollars. It can make 1.5 to 2:billion dollars annually without stress. However not at the current price it is selling PMS

GeneralDae:
From Google and Bloomberg

This is somehow different from your initial post You mentioned his equity in Dangote Cement. And that is what I reacted to in your post.That didn't significantly change
He took loan from DL which is equally indirect holding of alhaji. So it is still his other hand
DL makes alot from dividend in all alhaji business and other profits. So it has enough cash reserve.
So alhaji equity in the Cement didn't really drop
Or am I missing ur point

Streetinvestor2:
This is somehow different from your initial post You mentioned his equity in Dangote Cement. And that is what I reacted to in your post.That didn't significantly change
He took loan from DL which is equally indirect holding of alhaji. So it is still his other hand
DL makes alot from dividend in all alhaji business and other profits. So it has enough cash reserve.
So alhaji equity in the Cement didn't really drop
Or am I missing ur point

Okay. I may have wrongly connected that to his equity though but I read at the time (when the refinery was being built) that Dangote committed about $10 Billion equity to the building of the refinery. Not sure how that worked.

When a new Govt enters by May 2027,we may see $ at 1,000 or below self abd subsidy removed.

Dangote Refinery is valued at this present 1,360usd vs naira.

The coming of Dangote Refinery to the NGX is the crashing of stocks.Take it or leave it.

Nigeria economy is in a mess and someone must fix it.To fix it,stocks will be repriced lower.

Nigerians are like Americans to other Africans. So it's possible they will get it. But this purchase will make the CBN look stupid.

WhizdomXX:
Radarada . Do you think it will get it?

ppogba:
Receive deliverance by 🔥.
Amen, amen and Amen.

I have received long ago.And now want to play my, part to deliver nigeria in 2027 from failed government We dey see una post in politics thread both those who come here to pretend reserve. Na only me no dey pretend my own as I no send anymore.
Thr only reason why they shout about politics here is because to them it is against BAT
When I see thr post on politics thread I go laugh
So I now block them here when they want to play smart

My own concern about the Dangote Refinery listing on NGX

Assuming full subscription at the IPO price (ignoring any price appreciation or depreciation), Dangote Refinery will account for approximately 40% of the entire NGX market capitalisation. when it is finally listed.

A 40% weighting transforms the NGX from a diversified exchange into what is effectively a "Dangote Refinery Exchange." This creates an unprecedented situation where the performance of a single company defines the financial health of the nation's entire stock market.

That level of concentration is extremely vulnerable – and risky for every investor.

What are your thoughts on this and what do you suggest we should do as investors in preparation for this?

lawani:
Possible but not enough reason not to buy now. The company as it is is capable of making over one billion dollars in annual profit and therefore it is worth over 40 billion dollars. It can make 1.5 to 2:billion dollars annually without stress. However not at the current price it is selling PMS

Do you have an investment presently on ngx so I can understand ur position better. How many percent do you think it can grow that profit yearly for the next 5yrs.At the end what do you think is your projected dividend to shareholders for that 5 yrs. I am talking from investors perspective.
If you are only interested in share appreciation So what is your projected roic in percentage yearly for it for the next 5 yr for anyone
I don't see a reason I should be buying it at a premium in an ipo when I have stocks on ngx that can return better for me now.I am after dividend and share appreciation. .

Private Placement na for the WEALTHY while IPO na for the ....?

Based on 2008 levels sha

Na wetin enter my mind this afternoon sha

ACCESS still buying 😂

Raider76:
Lol. The leopard can't change it's skin.

ghm:
My own concern about the Dangote Refinery listing on NGX

Assuming full subscription at the IPO price (ignoring any price appreciation or depreciation), Dangote Refinery will account for approximately 40% of the entire NGX market capitalisation. when it is finally listed.

A 40% weighting transforms the NGX from a diversified exchange into what is effectively a "Dangote Refinery Exchange." This creates an unprecedented situation where the performance of a single company defines the financial health of the nation's entire stock market.

That level of concentration is extremely vulnerable – and risky for every investor.

What are your thoughts on this and what do you suggest we should do as investors in preparation for this?

Valid concern, but It'll list at just about 30% give or take, not 40.

Current market is N158trn
DPRP is 65trn
Market cap on listing is: N223trn

65 is 29% of 223.

Except market dips more significantly.

Even if market is at 150trn on listing day, DPRP would still be at 30% not 40.

Airtel currently represents 15% btw.

ARADEL. ±
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. ±
OandO. -6.29%
SEPLAT. ±

@ bolded, answer is no.
pre-PP OS was ~ 112bn

The 5.35bn unallotted shares were part of 12.5bn shares resulting from the Shareholders Resolution approving the capital raise via an IPO (5.35bn = 4.1bn + 30%). ~7.5bn was allotted to PP.

My little clarification

Streetinvestor2:
Pls based on this table is thr a yard stick to change the OS of private company to a new figur in just short space.look at the OS in 2025 and what it became in 2026..Or because u are coming to list you can just change the OS to any number. Abi thr is real asset valuation by external body or regulatory body.I don't understand
.
And why is the information really different.
The pp guys follow for the others in this table.
It says 5,351 853 329 is unallocated. Does it mean PP guys took less than 2 billion units which was different from initial information about over subscription for PP
Na watin I see for that table I want to get clarification oh

@bolded is correct up till 31 Dec '25...

GeneralDae:
Most of the debts are owed to DIL (Dangote Industry Limited) because Dangote used his cement equity for the most part to build the refinery. Remember cement alone was the core part of his $25 Billion networth in 2014 which dropped significantly afterwards.

See godfather!😁.
https://nairametrics.com/2026/09/09/dangote-to-retain-84-34-control-of-refinery-after-planned-n2-15-trillion-ipo-prospectus-shows/

OANDO doing its job as expected

KarlTom:
ARADEL. ±
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. ±
OandO. -6.29%
SEPLAT. ±

Where's PETERICHY?

KarlTom:
@ bolded, answer is no.
pre-PP OS was ~ 112bn

The 5.35bn unallotted shares were part of 12.5bn shares a result of the Shareholders Resolution approving the capital raise via an IPO (5.35bn = 4.1bn + 30%). ~7.5bn was allotted to PP.

My little clarification

OK missed something in the table. The total OS in your table was 120 billion plus.
And not the final OS capturing the 125 billion plus .So the others thr was just PP guys

DPRP

Out of $1.6bn, $400m already approved to Pan-African Refinery Investment SPV

RIs to jostle for 3.073bn shares

awesomeJ:
Valid concern, but It'll list at just about 30% give or take, not 40.

Current market is N158trn
DPRP is 65trn
Market cap on listing is: N223trn

65 is 29% of 223.

Except market dips more significantly.

Even if market is at 150trn on listing day, DPRP would still be at 30% not 40.

Airtel currently represents 15% btw.

This is not even so much of a problem. Samsung controls the SK market even more so.
In Africa, MTN Ghana has same control over the Ghanaian market same with Safaricom (Mpesa) in the Kenyan market.

Streetinvestor2:
Do you have an investment presently on ngx so I can understand ur position better. How many percent do you think it can grow that profit yearly for the next 5yrs.At the end what do you think is your projected dividend to shareholders for that 5 yrs. I am talking from investors perspective.
If you are only interested in share appreciation So what is your projected roic in percentage yearly for it for the next 5 yr for anyone
I don't see a reason I should be buying it at a premium in an ipo when I have stocks on ngx that can return better for me now.I am after dividend and share appreciation. .

The reason is that it might actually appreciate and if it falls it will be temporarily. The company selling pms at the right price will make more than 1 billion dollars a year in profit and that is enough

As at 31 Dec 25

GeneralDae:
From Google and Bloomberg

KarlTom:
DPRP

Out of $1.6bn, $400m already approved to Pan-African Refinery Investment SPV

RIs to jostle for 3.073bn shares

Why is the ipo even programmed for a month. They should have just made thr thin 2 weeks affair

Abeg 1 month dey okay.
I still dey calculate how I go get funds within that time frame sef

Streetinvestor2:
Why is the ipo even programmed for a month. They should have just made thr thin 2 weeks affair