₦airaland Forum

lawani:
The reason is that it might actually appreciate and if it falls it will be temporarily. The company selling pms at the right price will make more than 1 billion dollars a year in profit and that is enough

This does not answer the questions in my post.Making any amount of billion does not tell the story. What the billion can translate in its financial to shareholders is the question I want u to answer. Abi you are buying for just the title of shareholder in Dangote refinery. Some of us have grown pass that stage in the business of ngx long ago after good and bad lessons

KarlTom:
Abeg 1 month dey okay.
I still dey calculate how I go get funds within that time frame sef

Sell down your existing portfolio now for it..lol

GeneralDae:
This is not even so much of a problem. Samsung controls the SK market even more so.
In Africa, MTN Ghana has same control over the Ghanaian market same with Safaricom (Mpesa) in the Kenyan market.

You're right, although the impact will still be felt.



Have you wondered why despite the red red people have been saying, the market is still about 56% up, one would then think that if the market only dipped from a high of 62% ytd gains to 56%, that's only a slight correction na.

But to most people, it doesn't at all feel like a slight correction. That's cos the correction is indeed more steep than just 6 percentage points, but AIRTEL's surge masked how deep the correction is.


If aritel had stayed at its price level when we hit the year high of 252k, the ytd gains would have now been around 45% by now, making the actual correction of 17% more visible.

Now unlike Airtel which requires N630m to move price, this one only requires less than N100m for as long as it trades below 1k. So It's even more likely to distort.

Also, Airtel which currently holds 15% is both illiquid in terms of supply and requires huge cash for block trades to cause price movements.

This one will hold a more significant 30%, requires much smaller N50 -70m and has many more billions of free float.

For context, someone can be selling off 4m units of this stock every session for a whole year and still not finish selling 0.8% of the available supply.

Waiting for H1 '26 of banks...

Streetinvestor2:
Sell down your existing portfolio now for it..lol

Apparently Morgan Capital's app is now available

I can't find it on PlayStore...

UchihaRhaegar:
Apparently Morgan Capital's app is now available

mikeapollo:
The free float could be less than 3billion units because a lot of institutional investors and HNI will be buying the IPO as well.
So who would sell his/her refinery share at N300 to anyone when the cost was N525 and they know the prospects?
The price may come down a bit but a 40% discount is unrealistic.

That's my question. What happens after the discount to his projected 372 value per share but nobody is willing to sell?

Here is a summary of today's trading session on the NGX.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5d8ePPVTW3SmCjJdERazHr?si=5sv_A6l_RPmgeQTEUBxoGQ

https://rumble.com/v7fale6-champion-breweries-led-the-gainers-ngx-daily-market-summary-september-9-202.html


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD6h2lRp7y0

UchihaRhaegar:
Apparently Morgan Capital's app is now available

Finally?

ghm:
My own concern about the Dangote Refinery listing on NGX

Assuming full subscription at the IPO price (ignoring any price appreciation or depreciation), Dangote Refinery will account for approximately 40% of the entire NGX market capitalisation. when it is finally listed.

A 40% weighting transforms the NGX from a diversified exchange into what is effectively a "Dangote Refinery Exchange." This creates an unprecedented situation where the performance of a single company defines the financial health of the nation's entire stock market.

That level of concentration is extremely vulnerable – and risky for every investor.

What are your thoughts on this and what do you suggest we should do as investors in preparation for this?

My concern exactly. The Dangote ecosystem will be too domineering for the NGX

londonerr:
My concern exactly. The Dangote ecosystem will be too domineering for the NGX

That is the strength of the man's investments in Nigeria which are also creating opportunities and wealth for his employees, distributors, investors etc.
Other wealthy Nigerians should also invest and list their companies on NGX
Or would you prefer he does not list his companies so that your worry about being "" too domineering for NGX" would be over and gone?

londonerr:
My concern exactly. The Dangote ecosystem will be too domineering for the NGX

Exactly.
Imaging adding Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar Refining, NASCON.
Can we calculate the % of NGX by market capitalisation that Dangote Ecosystem will be post-listing Dangote Refinery?

Was thinking about this while outside this evening. The NGX will have to start begging mega-companies to list in order to dilute Dangote else we are in for a long thing as far as the official index is concerned

ghm:
My own concern about the Dangote Refinery listing on NGX

Assuming full subscription at the IPO price (ignoring any price appreciation or depreciation), Dangote Refinery will account for approximately 40% of the entire NGX market capitalisation. when it is finally listed.

A 40% weighting transforms the NGX from a diversified exchange into what is effectively a "Dangote Refinery Exchange." This creates an unprecedented situation where the performance of a single company defines the financial health of the nation's entire stock market.

That level of concentration is extremely vulnerable – and risky for every investor.

What are your thoughts on this and what do you suggest we should do as investors in preparation for this?

Can't find it on the App Store.

UchihaRhaegar:
Apparently Morgan Capital's app is now available

Just checking through today's price list...
- Today's trade wasn't encouraging at all
- Market is not receiving this news in good faith.
- The regulators should have thought DANGREF through because of the nature of industry it belongs.

Maybe circuit breaker needs be triggered at some point now......because some big companies are gradually joining the list of already affected stocks.....
* By the time AIRTEL, NESTLE and SEPLAT join, NGX will know there's fire on their mountain.....
* Hope something drastic is done btw tomorrow and the next....

Haba, why are you usually so panicky? What do you want the regulators to do about it? You seem to like frequent regulator interference in the markets. If na so, nobody go invest o.

yMcy56:
Just checking through today's price list...
- Today's trade wasn't encouraging at all
- Market is not receiving this news in good fate.
- The regulators should have thought DANGREF through because of the nature of industry it belongs.

Maybe circuit breaker needs be triggered at some point now......because some big companies are gradually joining the list of already affected stocks.....
* By the time AIRTEL, NESTLE and SEPLAT join, NGX will know there's fire on their mountain.....
* Hope something drastic is done btw tomorrow and the next....

deathwing:
Haba, why are you usually so panicky? What do you want the regulators to do about it? You seem to like frequent regulator interference in the markets. If na so, nobody go invest o.

Their primary duty is to protect investors, so there's the need to always call them to sit up.

Do you know how much investors have lost in the last 2-3 days?

What you should know is that if that continues, it will not only affect NGX but will affect the country as a whole.

We're still trying to woo more investors, negativity can cause severe damage for both existing and new entrants if left unattended to.

deathwing:
Haba, why are you usually so panicky? What do you want the regulators to do about it? You seem to like frequent regulator interference in the markets. If na so, nobody go invest o.

You dey mind Mercy

Even during COVID sef circuit breaker no trigger. We go love NGX to drop more than 5% in a single trading session make circuit breaker trigger

yMcy56:
Their primary duty is to protect investors, so there's the need to always call them to sit up.

Do you know how much investors have lost in the last 2-3 days?

What you should know is that if that continues, it will not only affect NGX but will affect the country as a whole.

We're still trying to woo more investors, negativity can cause severe damage for both existing and new entrants if left unattended to.

The duty of regulators is to protect investors from being scammed, not from losing money

If NGX ends red this week eh... Next week for be ....

ghm:
My own concern about the Dangote Refinery listing on NGX

Assuming full subscription at the IPO price (ignoring any price appreciation or depreciation), Dangote Refinery will account for approximately 40% of the entire NGX market capitalisation. when it is finally listed.

A 40% weighting transforms the NGX from a diversified exchange into what is effectively a "Dangote Refinery Exchange." This creates an unprecedented situation where the performance of a single company defines the financial health of the nation's entire stock market.

That level of concentration is extremely vulnerable – and risky for every investor.

What are your thoughts on this and what do you suggest we should do as investors in preparation for this?

It's even bigger than any sector in NGX

I don't think it's an issue just treat Dangote refinery as a super sector in your portfolio and maintain a well diversified portfolio.

Keep cash available for opportunities created by the IPO.

Continue accumulating fundamentally strong businesses outside Dangote refinery.

Don't make Dangote refinery more than 10 to 20% of your portfolio

yMcy56:
Just checking through today's price list...
- Today's trade wasn't encouraging at all
- Market is not receiving this news in good faith.
- The regulators should have thought DANGREF through because of the nature of industry it belongs.

Maybe circuit breaker needs be triggered at some point now......because some big companies are gradually joining the list of already affected stocks.....
* By the time AIRTEL, NESTLE and SEPLAT join, NGX will know there's fire on their mountain.....
* Hope something drastic is done btw tomorrow and the next....

Nestle has joined

deathwing:
Was thinking about this while outside this evening. The NGX will have to start begging mega-companies to list in order to dilute Dangote else we are in for a long thing as far as the official index is concerned

Weight of the Dangote Ecosystem in NGX

NGX Market Cap (Pre-Listing): ~₦160.60 trillion (as at 7/9/2026)
Add: Dangote Refinery IPO Value: ₦65.22 trillion
New NGX Market Cap (Post-Listing): ~₦225.82 trillion

Dangote Ecosystem Total Market Cap (as at 3/9/2026):

Dangote Refinery: ₦65.22 trillion
Dangote Cement: ₦17.45 trillion
Dangote Sugar: ₦874.58 billion
NASCON: ₦526.97 billion

Total: ~₦84.07 trillion

Resulting Percentage:

₦84.07T / ₦225.82T ≈ 37.2%

Breakdown:

Dangote Refinery Alone: ~28.9% of the new NGX
Dangote Ecosystem (Total): ~37.2% of the new NGX

UchihaRhaegar:
Apparently Morgan Capital's app is now available

Please which website or platform offers the lowest fees for retail investors?

ghm:
Exactly.
Imaging adding Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar Refining, NASCON.
Can we calculate the % of NGX by market capitalisation that Dangote Ecosystem will be post-listing Dangote Refinery?

In addition, their fertiliser company/subsidiary will likely list on the NGX in the foreseeable future.

This will further increase their dominance on the lagos bourse.

Iskalamong!

.

.

SonofElElyonRet:
Japaul at N2.35
Ellah dey kampe
Guinea insurance yakata

With Dangote Refinery Bear
we are shifting our JAPAUL goalpost to #1:50


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

ghm:
Weight of the Dangote Ecosystem in NGX

The Total (Refinery + Cement + Sugar + NASCON - as at 3/9/2026): ₦65.22T + ₦17.45T + ₦874.58B + ₦526.97B = ~₦84.07 trillion

The NGX Market Cap: ~₦160.60 trillion (as at 6/9/2026)

The Resulting Percentage: ~84.07T / 160.60T ≈ 52%

Once their fertiliser company adds to the list, the dominance increases.

Mind you, the sugar company is presently not at its best due to the financial issues it is having.

Once that is remedied, the market value (market cap.) of DANGSUGAR will also rise significantly.

Iskalamong!

.

.

I get but it's called a market for a reason. If a new entrant causes others to dip, then that new entrant is dimmed worthy of the risk and the price that the 'market' has put on it. The investors are losing to other investors, na part of risk be that. If investors want safe returns, there is T-bills and Money Market Fund. Not been doing this investing thing for too long but this cuddling you keep implying is not how normal markets work

yMcy56:
Their primary duty is to protect investors, so there's the need to always call them to sit up.

Do you know how much investors have lost in the last 2-3 days?

What you should know is that if that continues, it will not only affect NGX but will affect the country as a whole.

We're still trying to woo more investors, negativity can cause severe damage for both existing and new entrants if left unattended to.

Next year, I hear. Na that one I fit save for

iskalamong:
In addition, their fertiliser company/subsidiary will likely list on the NGX in the foreseeable future.

This will further increase their dominance on the lagos bourse.

Iskalamong!

.

.

Streetinvestor2:
This does not answer the questions in my post.Making any amount of billion does not tell the story. What the billion can translate in its financial to shareholders is the question I want u to answer. Abi you are buying for just the title of shareholder in Dangote refinery. Some of us have grown pass that stage in the business of ngx long ago after good and bad lessons

Buying that particular IPO isn't different from buying a house, taking in tenants and expecting rent. You shouldn't buy only if you can't wait. I have no money to buy myself though

ghm:
Weight of the Dangote Ecosystem in NGX

The Total (Refinery + Cement + Sugar + NASCON - as at 3/9/2026): ₦65.22T + ₦17.45T + ₦874.58B + ₦526.97B = ~₦84.07 trillion

The NGX Market Cap: ~₦160.60 trillion (as at 6/9/2026)

The Resulting Percentage: ~84.07T / 160.60T ≈ 52%

Again, you can't add 65trn to the numerator without also adding it to the denominator. That's elementary maths.

*NAICOM Under EFCC Investigation - ₦100bn Fraud Allegation*

*What happened:*

- *EFCC detained and granted bail* to 2 top NAICOM officials:
- *Oluwatoyin Charles* - Director of Compliance
- *Olusegun Ayo Omosehin* - NAICOM Insurance Commissioner
- *Allegations*: Fraudulent insurance recapitalisation totaling *over ₦100 billion*
- Illegal collection of *1% of shareholders’ funds* — not paid to FG’s TSA account
- *₦200m and ₦300m* allegedly allocated as allowances to the 2 directors from recapitalisation proceeds
- *Ministry of Finance letter dated 6th August 2026* flagged it
- *NICON Insurance and Universal Insurance* sued NAICOM and got a restraining order
- *Commissioner Omosehin admitted* the NIIRA Act didn’t authorize the 1% charge after Finance Ministry ordered it

So the regulator meant to oversee insurance is now under probe for the recapitalisation process itself.