₦airaland Forum

ghm:
Thanks for the remark.

You actually brought another dimension of concern. I had that before, and my response is below. I initially thought I would go in heavily, but decided to do due diligence instead. Please note that despite my response, I am still learning, and I like the discourse.

On the "$47 billion for just a refinery" point:
You're right that standalone refiners rarely command such valuations. Turkey's Tupras – with comparable combined capacity across four refineries – is valued at about $12 billion . US-listed HF Sinclair, with roughly 678,000 bpd capacity, sits around $16 billion .

So why is Dangote different? Because it's not being priced as a standalone refiner.

1. Capacity is doubling, not static
The refinery currently operates at 700,000 bpd – surpassing its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity after a 72-hour performance test with UOP in February 2026 . A second 700,000 bpd train is already under construction, targeting mechanical completion by end-2028 and bringing total capacity to 1.4 million bpd. DR is also more efficient than other refineries in that it converts approximately 92% of every barrel into clean transport fuels, with cash operating costs below $3 per barrel – among the lowest-cost refiners globally At that scale, it would surpass India's Jamnagar as the world's largest single-site refinery.

The IPO proceeds are earmarked for this expansion, which is estimated at $12.4 billion – about 38% below what Phase 1 cost, because it replicates existing configuration on the same site .

2. The financials already support the valuation
In H1 2026 alone, the refinery posted:

Revenue: N19.47 trillion ($13.91 billion)
Profit after tax: N2.55 trillion ($1.82 billion)
EBITDA: $2.60 billion – nearly five times its full-year 2025 figure

Gross refining margin rose to $24.50 per barrel, up from $13.70 in 2025 and $10.70 in 2024 . Average utilisation hit 83.6% .

3. Analysts have independently validated the valuation.
Two equity research reports published on September 7, 2026:

Chapel Hill Denham valued the refinery at approximately $62.5 billion
Renaissance Capital valued it at $53.89–$62.09 billion

Both modelled the Phase 2 expansion. Chapel Hill Denham described it as "relatively de-risked" because the second train replicates existing infrastructure with engineering and licensing already in place .

4. On the "100% return requires $100bn valuation" concern
You're right that doubling the share price from N525 would require a valuation approaching $100 billion. But capital appreciation is not the only return path. The refinery's cash generation supports dividends, and the expansion case provides a pathway to higher earnings.

At N525, the implied P/E ratio is roughly 30 based on estimated earnings of N14 per share . That compares favourably with Aradel (above 20) and Seplat (above 15) on the NGX .

5. What's the risk?
Renaissance Capital flagged that each year of delay in Phase 2 could "materially reduce the refinery's value" . The base case assumes commissioning by 2030, versus management's 2028 target .

Other risks: refining-cycle volatility, crude supply constraints, FX movements, and operational disruptions .

Bottom line:
The valuation isn't crazy for a standalone refinery – because it's not being priced as one. It's being priced as a platform that will double capacity, integrate petrochemicals, and reshape Atlantic basin product flows .

Whether that justifies $49 billion today depends on execution. The analysts covering it seem to think the expansion is achievable. But they're pricing in execution, not certainty.

I hope this adds to the discourse.

''Bad boy'' at the bolded
You must be related to Agba somehow

Jaiz Bank, and NSLTECH on Full Bid... Is the market getting set for a recovery?

I just hope it enters sub one naira

PETERiCHY:
With Dangote Refinery Bear
we are shifting our JAPAUL goalpost to #1:50


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

JAPAUL at 0.50 won't be bad sha....

Should we expect Oando at 8 naira?

yMcy56:
Their primary duty is to protect investors, so there's the need to always call them to sit up.

Do you know how much investors have lost in the last 2-3 days?

What you should know is that if that continues, it will not only affect NGX but will affect the country as a whole.

We're still trying to woo more investors, negativity can cause severe damage for both existing and new entrants if left unattended to.

Unlike previous sell offs where people are leaving the market hence circuit breakers might be required.(like the tax case)

This case involves people leaving the market to also re-enter the market.

So the funds are still coming back to the market.

Maybe to different stock(DR) and not just to your preferred stocks

essentialone1:
*NAICOM Under EFCC Investigation - ₦100bn Fraud Allegation*

*What happened:*

- *EFCC detained and granted bail* to 2 top NAICOM officials:
- *Oluwatoyin Charles* - Director of Compliance
- *Olusegun Ayo Omosehin* - NAICOM Insurance Commissioner
- *Allegations*: Fraudulent insurance recapitalisation totaling *over ₦100 billion*
- Illegal collection of *1% of shareholders’ funds* — not paid to FG’s TSA account
- *₦200m and ₦300m* allegedly allocated as allowances to the 2 directors from recapitalisation proceeds
- *Ministry of Finance letter dated 6th August 2026* flagged it
- *NICON Insurance and Universal Insurance* sued NAICOM and got a restraining order
- *Commissioner Omosehin admitted* the NIIRA Act didn’t authorize the 1% charge after Finance Ministry ordered it

So the regulator meant to oversee insurance is now under probe for the recapitalisation process itself.

Wahala

There is no guarantee that al who's leaving nowid because of Refinery. Some persons might be leaving because of 2027?

chimex38:
Unlike previous sell offs where people are leaving the market hence circuit breakers might be required.(like the tax case)

This case involves people leaving the market to also re-enter the market.

So the funds are still coming back to the market.

Maybe to different stock(DR) and not just to your preferred stocks

essentialone1:
*NAICOM Under EFCC Investigation - ₦100bn Fraud Allegation*

*What happened:*

- *EFCC detained and granted bail* to 2 top NAICOM officials:
- *Oluwatoyin Charles* - Director of Compliance
- *Olusegun Ayo Omosehin* - NAICOM Insurance Commissioner
- *Allegations*: Fraudulent insurance recapitalisation totaling *over ₦100 billion*
- Illegal collection of *1% of shareholders’ funds* — not paid to FG’s TSA account
- *₦200m and ₦300m* allegedly allocated as allowances to the 2 directors from recapitalisation proceeds
- *Ministry of Finance letter dated 6th August 2026* flagged it
- *NICON Insurance and Universal Insurance* sued NAICOM and got a restraining order
- *Commissioner Omosehin admitted* the NIIRA Act didn’t authorize the 1% charge after Finance Ministry ordered it

So the regulator meant to oversee insurance is now under probe for the recapitalisation process itself.

So the Finance Ministry authorized NAICOM (regulatory) officers to commit an act against the law? I don't get it.
If so, why is the Minster not being questioned as well?

megawealth01:
There is no guarantee that al who's leaving nowid because of Refinery. Some persons might be leaving because of 2027?

I want to believe it is too early to leave because of the 2027 election.

megawealth01:
I just hope it enters sub one naira

JAPAUL at 0.50 won't be bad sha....

Should we expect Oando at 8 naira?

No be overkill be dat

Make this market hurry up fall yakata
My garri don dey finish for village

megawealth01:
There is no guarantee that al who's leaving nowid because of Refinery. Some persons might be leaving because of 2027?

Hmm..true sha.
But it hasn't triggered circuit breakers in the past.


Not to forget school fees things
Both for Nigerian primary and secondary school students and those sponsoring their summer resumption students abroad.


The problem is they are all coming at the same time this September... Promax sell-off

SonofElElyonRet:
No be overkill be dat

All die be die!
All kill na kill!

ghm:
Thanks for the remark.

You actually brought another dimension of concern. I had that before, and my response is below. I initially thought I would go in heavily, but decided to do due diligence instead. Please note that despite my response, I am still learning, and I like the discourse.

On the "$47 billion for just a refinery" point:
You're right that standalone refiners rarely command such valuations. Turkey's Tupras – with comparable combined capacity across four refineries – is valued at about $12 billion . US-listed HF Sinclair, with roughly 678,000 bpd capacity, sits around $16 billion .

So why is Dangote different? Because it's not being priced as a standalone refiner.

1. Capacity is doubling, not static
The refinery currently operates at 700,000 bpd – surpassing its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity after a 72-hour performance test with UOP in February 2026 . A second 700,000 bpd train is already under construction, targeting mechanical completion by end-2028 and bringing total capacity to 1.4 million bpd. DR is also more efficient than other refineries in that it converts approximately 92% of every barrel into clean transport fuels, with cash operating costs below $3 per barrel – among the lowest-cost refiners globally At that scale, it would surpass India's Jamnagar as the world's largest single-site refinery.

The IPO proceeds are earmarked for this expansion, which is estimated at $12.4 billion – about 38% below what Phase 1 cost, because it replicates existing configuration on the same site .

2. The financials already support the valuation
In H1 2026 alone, the refinery posted:

Revenue: N19.47 trillion ($13.91 billion)
Profit after tax: N2.55 trillion ($1.82 billion)
EBITDA: $2.60 billion – nearly five times its full-year 2025 figure

Gross refining margin rose to $24.50 per barrel, up from $13.70 in 2025 and $10.70 in 2024 . Average utilisation hit 83.6% .

3. Analysts have independently validated the valuation
Two equity research reports published on September 7, 2026:

Chapel Hill Denham valued the refinery at approximately $62.5 billion
Renaissance Capital valued it at $53.89–$62.09 billion

Both modelled the Phase 2 expansion. Chapel Hill Denham described it as "relatively de-risked" because the second train replicates existing infrastructure with engineering and licensing already in place .

4. On the "100% return requires $100bn valuation" concern
You're right that doubling the share price from N525 would require a valuation approaching $100 billion. But capital appreciation is not the only return path. The refinery's cash generation supports dividends, and the expansion case provides a pathway to higher earnings.

At N525, the implied P/E ratio is roughly 30 based on estimated earnings of N14 per share . That compares favourably with Aradel (above 20) and Seplat (above 15) on the NGX .

5. What's the risk?
Renaissance Capital flagged that each year of delay in Phase 2 could "materially reduce the refinery's value" . The base case assumes commissioning by 2030, versus management's 2028 target .

Other risks: refining-cycle volatility, crude supply constraints, FX movements, and operational disruptions .

Bottom line:
The valuation isn't crazy for a standalone refinery – because it's not being priced as one. It's being priced as a platform that will double capacity, integrate petrochemicals, and reshape Atlantic basin product flows .

Whether that justifies $49 billion today depends on execution. The analysts covering it seem to think the expansion is achievable. But they're pricing in execution, not certainty.

I hope this adds to the discourse.

Is it under construction or it is planned for construction with target completion in 2029 not 2028? I thought the current implied valuation is $46.9.

UchihaRhaegar:
Morgan Capital

Thanks.

megawealth01:
I just hope it enters sub one naira

JAPAUL at 0.50 won't be bad sha....

Should we expect Oando at 8 naira?

Una go kill person soon.

chimex38:
Unlike previous sell offs where people are leaving the market hence circuit breakers might be required.(like the tax case)

This case involves people leaving the market to also re-enter the market.

So the funds are still coming back to the market.

Maybe to different stock(DR) and not just to your preferred stocks

Which tax case please

Agbalowomeri:
Make this market hurry up fall yakata
My garri don dey finish for village

If you don't buy this month, you might not be able to get in again.

Market will resume bulls from next month till at least May of 2027.

Even this September will hold 235k if not 240.

WhizdomXX:
Which tax case please

There was a massive sell off totally away from the market around November last year.
The ASI lost about 5%.

Both Foreign and Local investors were using it to protest the newly imposed Capital Gain Tax(30%) on Ngx Net-gains in a calender year of 10million and above amongst other nuances associated with it.

chimex38:
There was a massive sell off totally away from the market around November last year.
The ASI lost about 5%.

Both Foreign and Local investors were using it to protest the newly imposed Capital Gain Tax(30%) on Ngx Net-gains in a calender year of 10million and above amongst other nuances associated with it.

Okay. Thank you.

awesomeJ:
If you don't buy this month, you might not be able to get in again.

Market will resume bulls from next month till at least May of 2027.

Even this September will hold 235k if not 240.

Ahh you say no election bear

Japaulgold on support discovery path.
This 11.5m units at 2.11 needs to be tested today.
Let Dangote Refinery fever continue today and tomorrow.

We are looking for our own IPO price to strike

UchihaRhaegar:
Morgan Capital

This is not even on the list of top 10 with lowest fees

megawealth01:
I just hope it enters sub one naira

JAPAUL at 0.50 won't be bad sha....

Should we expect Oando at 8 naira?

Anything is possible ooo!
Oando may even go back to N5 if care is not taken. (some people would still not buy, expecting it fall to N3)
Wale better talk ''better thing'' at the AGM next week Thursday.

Dangote refinery putting everybody ''under pressure'' .... RIP Ras Kimono

megawealth01:
I just hope it enters sub one naira

JAPAUL at 0.50 won't be bad sha....

Should we expect Oando at 8 naira?

OANDO AGM will take place next week Thursday being 17th Sept 2026.

The outcome will determine if we should expect the price at #50 or 8 naira


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Thanks. I wonder how Morgan Capital, being like a pioneer in online trading became among the last to develop a fintech app.

francesfrances:
They said the App will be available for downloads on Friday. I didn't ask if it is this week Friday or next week

Haha!
Look at Oando shaking body today? Wetin do am?

Stockpromoter:
Japaulgold on support discovery path.
This 11.5m units at 2.11 needs to be tested today.
Let Dangote Refinery fever continue today and tomorrow.

We are looking for our own IPO price to strike

Aswear..ready to buy 10million units at 2/1.98naira

Agbalowomeri:
Ahh you say no election bear

No election bear.

The election results alongside FY'26 results will make the rally enter a higher gear from January.

unite4real:
This is not even on the list of top 10 with lowest fees

Tell me please

PETERiCHY:
OANDO AGM will take place next week Thursday being 17th Sept 2026.

The outcome will determine if we should expect the price at #50 or 8 naira


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Noted

Stockpromoter:
Japaulgold on support discovery path.
This 11.5m units at 2.11 needs to be tested today.
Let Dangote Refinery fever continue today and tomorrow.

We are looking for our own IPO price to strike

Not today, not tomorrow, maybe not ever.

Ooooh... It's painful that Wale turned it PRIVATE not PUBLIC

PETERiCHY:
OANDO AGM will take place next week Thursday being 17th Sept 2026.

The outcome will determine if we should expect the price at #50 or 8 naira


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!