₦airaland Forum

From what price?

faoogoke:
AVACAP N4.55. Maybe we should wait at N3

Dangote Cement was listed at N135 in 2010, the stock price is now N1035 after 16 years. During this period they have increased the price of their product by about 300%, production capacity also increased. Unfortunately the compounded annualized growth rate of the stock price from N135 to N1035 is just 8.5%.

When I wrote about the listing price of Dangote Cement on SMN in 2010, I said the stock should not be listed above N80.

Assuming it was listed at N80 it compounded annualized share price growth rate would have been over 17%

emmanuelewumi:
Dangote Cement was listed at N135 in 2010, the stock price is now N1035 after 16 years. During this period they have increased the price of their product by about 300%, production capacity also increased. Unfortunately the compounded annualized growth rate of the stock price from N135 to N1035 is just 8.5%.

When I wrote about the listing price of Dangote Cement on SMN in 2010, I said the stock should not be listed above N80.

Assuming it was listed at N80 it compounded annualized share price growth rate would have been over 17%

but i believe adding the dividends in the past 16 years would have given it a good return.

Avacap at #4.5 per share looks like a good pick because the it is trading at a discount to the fair value of #5.5 according to my calculation and with the incoming increase in asset under management, though increase in shares outstanding, i think it should get to between #10 to #15 in the short and medium terms.

CMFC at #2 i also very good pick.

As seen on the internet

faoogoke:
AVACAP N4.55. Maybe we should wait at N3

Violence, is that you

emmaodet:
but i believe adding the dividends in the past 16 years would have given it a good return.

You are at a loss in terms of dollar.

Average dividend yield is about 5% plus the share price growth rate of 8%. That will give about 13%.

I love for a minimum of 16% which is about the yield on a 10 year FGN bond

This is for the newbies and GENZs that are just entering because of this IPO...

As seen on the internet

As seen on the internet

awesomeJ:
It's not 1 for 10. It's 1 bonus share regardless of the volume you hold from 10 and above.

1 bonus share for 12-month holding
A second bonus share if you continue holding for a total of 24 months.

So whether you hold 10 or 10,000, you get 1 share bonus so long you're a retail investor.


You saying 1 for 10 would make someone holding 10,000 units expect a bonus of 1000 shares, that's wrong, such a person only gets 1 share.

Mr doubting Thomas, I just heard dangote quote vetiva boss (lead advisers) in a video that there'll be bonus of 1 for every 10. Nairametrics carried the story as such..
Go fact check ...
▶️ Watch Aliko Dangote explain why investors who hold their shares for one year will get 1 bonus share for every 10 held, and why he believes the IPO could be fully oversubscribed.

faoogoke:
AVACAP N4.55. Maybe we should wait at N3

No let Mercy hear ooo

CHAI

SonofElElyonRet:
Mr doubting Thomas, I just heard dangote quote vetiva boss (lead advisers) in a video that there'll be bonus of 1 for every 10. Nairametrics carried the story as such..
Go fact check ...
▶️ Watch Aliko Dangote explain why investors who hold their shares for one year will get 1 bonus share for every 10 held, and why he believes the IPO could be fully oversubscribed.

emmaodet:
Avacap at #4.5 per share looks like a good pick because the it is trading at a discount to the fair value of #5.5 according to my calculation and with the incoming increase in asset under management, though increase in shares outstanding, i think it should get to between #10 to #15 in the short and medium terms.

CMFC at #2 i also very good pick.

Dangote IPO Na scam don't buy it

edwardaigb:
Violence, is that you

No it's wickedness

emmanuelewumi:
With that there will be a limit to future capital appreciation.

It also happened with Dangote Cement.

I didn't buy the stock until 3 years after it was listed

I think dangote cement was way more expensive than the refinery at IPO price.
My major concern is the sustainability of the profit margins.

I just dey look many here saying Dangote IPO na scam. Don't mind many who are loading secretly. I agree that some have genuine reservation. Having looked at the prospectus, it is not priced ridiculously cheap, but not expensive. being sold only 14% above private placement locked in for a year is not bad at all.
I am also encouraged by huge pension funds all over Africa pitching in, they are generally conservative minded and tend to bet on safer investments. They also do not often flip shares. this is likely to provide a huge stable floor for the price.
Not often is an IPO listed for a company already up and running and producing results. IPO investors are often investing in hope of future earning of a nescient or loss making companies. not so in this case.
I do not think many here (not all) know more than lots of defensive pension fund managers or financial advisors of massive funds pitching in. Even different pro-level AI simulations rate it as a buy with a few caveats.
It is a buy for me.

SonofElElyonRet:
Mr doubting Thomas, I just heard dangote quote vetiva boss (lead advisers) in a video that there'll be bonus of 1 for every 10. Nairametrics carried the story as such..
Go fact check ...
▶️ Watch Aliko Dangote explain why investors who hold their shares for one year will get 1 bonus share for every 10 held, and why he believes the IPO could be fully oversubscribed.

Why the name calling?
Who are you that I should believe or doubt whatever you say?

Part of my contributions here is to correct misinformation that folks like you peddle.

I believe you can read simple English clauses.

I also believe you know which statement hold water in the court of law between what's in the official prospectus and whatever else you hear from whomever

pluto09:
I think dangote cement was way more expensive than the refinery at IPO price.
My major concern is the sustainability of the profit margins.

Not sustainable. Margin will come down whenever we have peace in the middle east

emmanuelewumi:
You are at a loss in terms of dollar.

Average dividend yield is about 5% plus the share price growth rate of 8%. That will give about 13%.

I love for a minimum of 16% which is about the yield on a 10 year FGN bond

This is true.
You raised a good point

As seen on the internet

ARADEL. +9.62%
CONOIL. ±
ETERNA. ±
OandO. +3.92%
SEPLAT. ±

emmanuelewumi:
Not sustainable. Margin will come down whenever we have peace in the middle east

This may not necessarily be true.

Cos the petrochemicals business has better margins, they might have ramped that up significantly before things normalize in the oil markets.

Also H1 results were only helped by 4 months of the war not the entire 6 months. H2 will also get at least 4 months of elevated oil prices, cos the market likely won't normalize by next month. So FY '26 should at least be 2x what they reported in H1.

Their biggest win in my opinion is breaking into advanced markets and pulling strong demands from all those geographies.

That's just me adding a perspective, I've never dealt in the primary market, my own is to help the stock's liquidity once they list and I love it like that.

Exactly! And when BUA and NNPC Refineries both start working.

emmanuelewumi:
Not sustainable. Margin will come down whenever we have peace in the middle east

It has fallen below my projection.
However, I am willing to wait a little for the IPO fever to subside

The bolded won't be good o

faoogoke:
AVACAP N4.55. Maybe we should wait at N3

E go clear for all soon

awesomeJ:
Why the name calling?
Who are you that I should believe or doubt whatever you say?

Part of my contributions here is to correct misinformation that folks like you peddle.

I believe you can read simple English clauses.

I also believe you know which statement hold water in the court of law between what's in the official prospectus and whatever else you hear from whomever

As seen on the internet

Na this kind news go help JEGEDE PLC bayi

awesomeJ:
Why the name calling?
Who are you that I should believe or doubt whatever you say?

Part of my contributions here is to correct misinformation that folks like you peddle.

I believe you can read simple English clauses.

I also believe you know which statement hold water in the court of law between what's in the official prospectus and whatever else you hear from whomever

1. Doubting Thomas isn't name calling
2. You are overly sensitive
3. Nairametrics reported it, posted a video in which dangote stated it
4. If quoting dangote is spreading false news then hold dangote responsible since you know more than dangote and vetiva the lead advisers
5. Did you even bother to watch the video that nairametrics posted?
6. Your aggression is uncalled for
7. Didn't ask you to believe or not believe me since I didn't originate the news.. you may choose to doubt or believe dangote. Your choice
8. Selah
9. Shalom

H1 result will be sustainable considering the disruptions earlier in the year.

DPRP achieved nameplate capacity of 650,000 bpd in February 2026 reaching 700,000 bpd by June 2026.
Caveat: they need to maintain anything near 700k bpd,..

emmanuelewumi:
Not sustainable. Margin will come down whenever we have peace in the middle east

emmanuelewumi:
The cost of 100 gram of gold in Naira was about 250k in 2006, now the cost is about N18 million 20 years after.


Very few stocks gave this type of return on NGX.


No Dangote stock beat currency devaluation, might struggle to just break even when we add dividends paid over the years

One of the reasons to hold commodities.
An ounce of gold costs $35 in 1970 and $4500 today.
Thanks to President Nixon for introducing fiat currency. It is what it is.

As seen on the internet

faoogoke:
Exactly! And when BUA and NNPC Refineries both start working.

BUA and NNPC refineries won't be able to complete with dangote on price.
The major competition is from import.

emmanuelewumi:
Not sustainable. Margin will come down whenever we have peace in the middle east

Yes I agree that margins would probably come down when there is calm in the middle east.
Importers will be able to import cheap fuel again just like they did last year.