₦airaland Forum

@yMcy56
Your guy has sent his boy @5.00 ooo
So expect him later in the day


We don collect few units at 4.95 sha....

yMcy56:
Market is generally not doing bad today....
Quite some greens...

Attached is AVA as at now....
Full bid...
Still watching if the dumper will show again to confirm his action is deliberate....😊

yMcy56:
Someone will go for a day or 2, or even some hours and will come back to meet like 10 pages or more....
Una well done o 😁

Oga BBM, it's nice seeing you back on the thread...
Such a long time!
You're welcome Sir. 😎

My Sister! It's quite an age... Happy to be back!

ghm:
Yes. If you sell and your holding falls below 10 shares, you lose eligibility for the bonus share. You must hold at least 10 shares continuously for the period.

If you buy 10 or 100 or 10,000 or 1 million, you still only get one bonus share after year one and one after year two – capped at two shares total.

The incentive is not impressive. It only makes sense for people buying the minimum 10 shares. If you're buying more than 20, just ignore it completely and run your own portfolio – buy, sell, or hold on your terms. IMO

Yes Boss. Thanks

awesomeJ:
yes

Thank you.

Leave am na one stock he buy we dey dip cause am

emmanuelewumi:
Please calm down

Aswear oooooo

I will sell 30% of my holdings I NGX and invest all in OANDO

thebargainhunte:
Wale should just surprise us by announcing his resignation

AVACAP: Watch for a Possible Dead-Cat Bounce

AVACAP has rejected the ₦5.00 support area and traded down to ₦4.55, its 52-week low.

For today, I’m watching the ₦4.95–₦5.00 area closely. The stock needs to absorb selling pressure and reclaim this zone.

If AVACAP is rejected around ₦4.95–₦5.00 and closes below ₦4.95, I would expect the downside pressure to remain, with the possibility of further weakness.

This could be developing into a dead-cat bounce, but I need to see more price action and confirmation before calling it one.

₦4.55 remains the key level to watch.

That announcement won't do much compared to his resignation even If na to dey run Oando low key like JEGEDE to JAPAUL

mikeapollo:
Surprise ke?

My wish is for an announcement that they have entered an MOU for supply of crude and possible partnership/acquisition of stake by Dangote refinery in the future
Wishful thinking...all because of Wale

I saw this on internet.

They should move the venue to ABUJA or KANO

essentialone1:
Wait until the next AGM of Dangote Refinery. The venue will definitely be at Tafawa Balewa Square. With helicopters and drones for Crowd Control.

emmanuelewumi:
What happened to Aradel and Seplat when they were initially listed.

Dangote Refinery shares will also come down to N300, after that it will climb to N400 and then stabilize

The truth is no one knows and you're only speculating. The problem is IPOs have shifted from growing companies to an exit ramp. That's when you experience those dips.
The free float for DR is too small for the price to dip to 300. Equities are long term investments and time in the market beats timing the market.

Since we are guessing, let me throw my hat in. The intention is to slow share sales after listing so as to reduce volatility immediately after listing. The 1 for 10 is because the minimum shares everyone must have is 10. It will be futile to expect someone with 50,000 shares to hold for a whole year in return for only 1 bonus share. So it must be a 1 for 10 bonus. The condition must also be that if you sell even one share you are disqualified. Otherwise it defeats the purpose.

WhizdomXX:
So if one buys 100 but sells 90 later on and holds 10 for two years, he gets it?

ThinkMore:
**I Went Looking For The Quiet Nairaland Posters Who Actually Pick Winners — Here’s What I Found**

I’ve been going through the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick thread with a slightly different objective.

Instead of asking:

**“Who posts the most?”**

or

**“Who is the most popular on the thread?”**

I wanted to answer a harder question:

**Which posters actually have a repeatable track record of identifying good stocks BEFORE the move?**

The original exercise started from January 1st 2025 and was meant to rank posters based on their one-year success rates.

But while doing that, I realised there was a problem.

Some of the best posters are not necessarily the loudest.

They may make 2–3 serious calls in a year, disappear, come back months later and make another one.

If you only count activity from January 2025, you can completely miss people who made a very strong portfolio call in late 2024 whose results only became obvious in 2025.

That is exactly how I nearly missed **Bovali**.

---

### THE BOVALI DISCOVERY

Bovali didn't post enough new calls during the January–August 2025 scoring period to naturally dominate a leaderboard.

But when I went backwards, things became much more interesting.

On July 1st 2024, Bovali publicly posted a portfolio containing:

ACCESS
AFRIPRUD
AIICO
DANGSUGAR
FBNH
MTNN
NESTLE
STERLING
TRANSCORP
WAPCO

One year later?

**Every single one was positive.**

10/10.

Some were ordinary gains.

Some were monsters.

TRANSCORP went from roughly ₦12.90 to around ₦48.

WAPCO went from roughly ₦34 to around ₦87.

AIICO moved from around ₦1 to ₦1.61.

MTNN went from roughly ₦214 to ₦357.

The equal-weight basket returned roughly **77%** versus about **20% for the NGX ASI** over the same one-year period.

That immediately raised another question:

**How many other “Bovali-type” posters are hiding inside this gigantic thread?**

Meaning posters who:

* don't post every five minutes;
* don't necessarily shout “FULL BID!!!”;
* don't constantly repost their winners;
* but quietly make thoughtful calls that subsequently work.

So I widened the search.

And a few interesting names have emerged.

---

## 1. OSITADIMA1

This might be the most interesting discovery so far.

Ositadima1 doesn't just throw ticker symbols around.

There is evidence of an actual framework behind the posts.

For example, he discussed **NASCON** in late 2024 as a possible 100% return candidate, combining valuation, expected earnings and dividend expectations.

NASCON later became one of the major winners of the period.

But what caught my attention even more was something he explained in December 2024.

He had built a type of **volume anomaly screener**.

The basic idea was to look at roughly a year's worth of trading data and detect when current trading volume suddenly became statistically abnormal while the share price itself had barely moved.

In simple English:

**“Is somebody quietly accumulating this thing before the price starts moving?”**

That is exactly the kind of thing I want from this exercise.

Not:

“Stock X will fly.”

But:

“Here is the measurable reason I'm paying attention.”

He also showed another important characteristic with OANDO.

While many people were bullish during the recovery, Ositadima warned that the stock could reverse around certain levels and potentially revisit much lower prices if earnings didn't justify the move.

Even more importantly, I found posts where he later admitted that one of his previous investing rules had been wrong and explained how he had modified it.

That may sound small.

It isn't.

One of the biggest problems with investment forums is that people remember every winning prediction and quietly bury every bad one.

Someone publicly saying:

**“My earlier model was wrong. This is what I learned.”**

gets extra credit from me.

**Current assessment: Ositadima1 belongs in the top research group.**

---

## 2. BULLBEARMKT

BullBearMkt looks like a different animal.

Less fundamental valuation.

More **technical entry timing**.

And some of the historical entry zones are very interesting.

In August 2024, somebody asked about WEMA.

BullBearMkt identified roughly:

**₦5.80–₦6.20**

as the buying zone.

WEMA eventually moved above ₦20.

He also highlighted Nigerian Breweries below roughly ₦28–₦29 as an interesting buyer area while clearly acknowledging that the chart could still continue lower.

NB eventually moved into the ₦70+ area.

There was also an OKOMU buying opportunity discussed around the ₦320 support region.

OKOMU eventually crossed ₦1,000.

Now, before anybody rushes off and says:

**“BullBearMkt never misses!”**

No.

That is exactly what I'm trying to avoid.

Technical traders make many more calls than fundamental investors.

If I show only three spectacular winners and ignore 15 stops that got hit, the analysis becomes useless.

So BullBearMkt still needs a proper **loser audit**.

But there is enough evidence already to say:

**This account deserves serious attention when the question is entry timing.**

---

## 3. PURISTFOREST

PuristForest is another interesting sleeper.

There are some surprisingly precise setups in the posting history.

For example, in January 2024:

**ELLAHLAKES target: ₦4.70**

That target was subsequently reached.

Then in January 2025:

**FTNCOCOA target: roughly ₦3.20–₦3.80.**

The stock eventually moved well beyond that range.

There are older examples involving stocks like Tantalizers, FCMB and Red Star Express where specific numerical setups were posted instead of vague bullish statements.

Again, that is valuable.

However, I have also seen enough evidence to suspect that PuristForest may be considerably better at **individual stock setups** than broad-market predictions.

And that's another important lesson from this exercise.

We shouldn't be asking:

**“Who is the best poster?”**

We should be asking:

**“What is each poster actually good at?”**

Someone can be excellent at finding individual breakouts and terrible at predicting the overall NGX direction.

Those are completely different skills.

**Current assessment: PuristForest is very promising, but needs more auditing before promotion into the very top tier.**

---

## 4. BABS02

Babs02 appears more useful from a **value/fundamental** perspective.

A lot of the posts revolve around relative valuations, particularly banking stocks.

ACCESS, UBA and other companies have been discussed in terms of whether the market valuation makes sense relative to earnings and peers.

The problem is statistical measurement.

If somebody says:

**“ACCESS is significantly undervalued.”**

What exactly counts as success?

10%?

30%?

Beating the NGX?

Reaching fair value?

That's why I don't want to dishonestly convert every smart fundamental comment into a “winning call”.

For now:

**Babs02 goes onto the research watchlist rather than the formal hit-rate leaderboard.**

---

## 5. 222MARTINS

Another account that deserves more attention.

One standout was DANGSUGAR.

There was a clear bullish thesis around the ₦35–₦40 region and expectations of significant upside.

That worked very well.

But what interested me almost as much was the willingness to discuss **taking profits** in other situations instead of behaving like every stock must go to the moon.

That matters.

Finding a stock is one skill.

Selling it is another.

Many Nairaland heroes are fantastic at posting:

**“I told you guys!”**

after a 100% move.

Very few consistently tell you:

**“This has done enough. Reduce risk.”**

So 222Martins stays on the list.

Not enough evidence yet for top-tier status, but definitely worth monitoring.

---

## ONE PERSON I'M DELIBERATELY NOT RANKING HIGHLY YET: ONEGENTLEGUY

This is an important point.

There appears to be evidence that OGG had several strong historical ideas.

But a lot of later activity moved into private/subscription channels.

That creates a massive audit problem.

If I can see:

“Look at the winner we recommended privately!”

but I cannot see every losing recommendation from the same private channel...

then I cannot calculate a meaningful success rate.

So my rule going forward is simple:

**Private Telegram/WhatsApp/subscriber calls do not count unless the original timestamped recommendation is independently available.**

Otherwise we're just measuring marketing.

---

# SO WHO ARE THE MOST INTERESTING POSTERS RIGHT NOW?

At this stage, I would divide them by **skill**, not simply rank everybody 1–10.

### Quantified valuation

**aj8**

Very specific targets.

Easy to audit.

Strong historical target achievement.

---

### Deep fundamental/value investors

**Bovali**

**Sunrisepebble**

**emmaodet**

These are the people I'd want to read when asking:

**“What might this company actually be worth?”**

---

### Data/quantitative research

**ositadima1**

This one deserves much more attention.

Especially if the unusual-volume screening methodology continues producing good signals.

---

### Technical entry timing

**BullBearMkt**

**PuristForest**

Useful for asking:

**“Okay, I like the company. But where should I actually enter?”**

---

### Early idea discovery / momentum

**yMcy56**

**Locotrader**

**megawealth01 — provisional**

Locotrader in particular has an interesting pattern.

The **stock ideas themselves** can be very good.

The exact price targets are much less reliable.

CHAMS is a perfect example.

The stock performed very well.

The ₦15 target did not.

So perhaps the right way to use Loco isn't:

**“Buy until his target.”**

It may be:

**“When Loco identifies something interesting, go and independently value it.”**

Big difference.

---

# THIS IS WHERE THE ANALYSIS IS HEADING

I originally thought the end product should simply be:

**“Top 10 posters by success rate.”**

I'm no longer convinced that is the best answer.

A better system is probably a **Profile × Skill Matrix**.

Something like:

| Profile | Stock Picking | Valuation | Entry Timing | Exit Timing | Risk Calls | Sample Confidence |
| ------------- | ------------- | --------- | ------------ | ----------- | ---------- | ----------------- |
| aj8 | Excellent | Excellent | — | Good | Good | High |
| Bovali | Excellent | Very Good | Good | Good | Good | High |
| Sunrisepebble | Excellent | Excellent | Good | Good | Good | Medium |
| Ositadima1 | Very Good | Very Good | Good | — | Excellent | Growing |
| BullBearMkt | Very Good | — | Excellent | Good | Good | Audit ongoing |
| Locotrader | Very Good | Mixed | Good | Mixed | Mixed | High |

Because there probably isn't one person who is best at everything.

And here's where this becomes genuinely useful.

Imagine a stock where:

**Bovali says it is undervalued.**

**Ositadima detects abnormal accumulation.**

**aj8 independently calculates 50%+ upside.**

**Sunrisepebble or Emma validates the earnings.**

Then:

**BullBearMkt identifies a clean support zone.**

Now you are no longer following one man's opinion.

You have several independent frameworks arriving at roughly the same conclusion.

**THAT is the signal I eventually want this analysis to identify.**

Not:

“Five people on Nairaland are shouting the same ticker.”

But:

**“Five historically competent investors, using different methods, independently see something attractive here.”**

Those are two completely different things.

---

The biggest lesson so far?

**The best people on that thread may not be the loudest people on that thread.**

Bovali proved that.

Ositadima1 may be another one.

BullBearMkt may be the technical equivalent.

And I'm fairly certain there are more buried across those thousands of pages.

So the search continues.

The objective is not to crown anybody “Nairaland Warren Buffett”.

The objective is much simpler:

**Find out who is worth listening to, what exactly they are good at, and when several of those people independently agree on the same opportunity.**

That could turn a 10,000+ page thread into something genuinely useful.

*NB: Historical performance is not a guarantee of future returns. This is an attempt to audit publicly timestamped calls, not financial advice.*

All these people that you listed here, that you have been gaining from, have you ever asked any of them for their Account Number and send them money, either for Gratitude or for Encouragement? Abi na only oral Thank You?

Tomorrow is the AGM of Oando Plc. Watch it closely...

Raider76:
Since we are guessing, let me throw my hat in. The intention is to slow share sales after listing so as to reduce volatility immediately after listing. The 1 for 10 is because the minimum shares everyone must have is 10. It will be futile to expect someone with 50,000 shares to hold for a whole year in return for only 1 bonus share. So it must be a 1 for 10 bonus. The condition must also be that if you sell even one share you are disqualified. Otherwise it defeats the purpose.

Ha

As in eh... 2023-2025 that I made a lot of fortunes for many here but no financial gratitude

Some even expected me to do GIVEAWAYS sef

essentialone1:
All these people that you listed here, that you have been gaining from, have you ever asked any of them for their Account Number and send them money, either for Gratitude or for Encouragement? Abi na only oral Thank You?

essentialone1:
Tomorrow is the AGM of Oando Plc. Watch it closely...

No email yet

The best news would be the resignation of WALE

essentialone1:
Tomorrow is the AGM of Oando Plc. Watch it closely...

It's PRIVATE so Wale no get our time. He don arrange who go attend and possibly what would be said. Case closed

WhizdomXX:
No email yet

mallamOmonile1:
@yMcy56
Your guy has sent his boy @5.00 ooo
So expect him later in the day


We don collect few units at 4.95 sha....

He don show face o! price is backk to 4.55

Patient orders pay sometimes.

I kept my JapaulGold buy orders good till date at ₦2.45, ₦2.44, ₦2.43, ₦2.42, ₦2.41, ₦2.40 and ₦2.39.

This simply means I was not in a hurry to buy. I already had my price levels and was willing to wait for the market to come to me.

Today, the orders at the higher levels executed, while the orders at ₦2.41 and below were only partially filled.

This is why I prefer placing my orders and allowing the market to decide.

No chasing. No FOMO. No rushing.

If sellers are willing to give me my price, I take it. If they don't, I wait.

Today's action is a good reminder:

Sometimes, patience pays.
But the real question now is whether ₦2.40–₦2.45 will hold as a demand zone or whether sellers will push JapaulGold lower.

Let's watch what the market says next. 👀📊

Stockpromoter:
AVACAP: Watch for a Possible Dead-Cat Bounce

AVACAP has rejected the ₦5.00 support area and traded down to ₦4.55, its 52-week low.

For today, I’m watching the ₦4.95–₦5.00 area closely. The stock needs to absorb selling pressure and reclaim this zone.

If AVACAP is rejected around ₦4.95–₦5.00 and closes below ₦4.95, I would expect the downside pressure to remain, with the possibility of further weakness.

This could be developing into a dead-cat bounce, but I need to see more price action and confirmation before calling it one.

₦4.55 remains the key level to watch.

Be careful with Avacap.
It's doing a dead cat bounce.
It will find support at below 4.55.
A little wait will do.
Na my TA dey tell me oooo

Raider76:
Since we are guessing, let me throw my hat in. The intention is to slow share sales after listing so as to reduce volatility immediately after listing. The 1 for 10 is because the minimum shares everyone must have is 10. It will be futile to expect someone with 50,000 shares to hold for a whole year in return for only 1 bonus share. So it must be a 1 for 10 bonus. The condition must also be that if you sell even one share you are disqualified. Otherwise it defeats the purpose.

You're the only one guessing. The prospectus is written in plain English, take 2 minutes to read it or ask AI to help you interprete. It's on page 65 Ask as many questions as you want from the AI to clear your doubts.

megawealth01:
As in eh... 2023-2025 that I made a lot of fortunes for many here but no financial gratitude

Some even expected me to do GIVEAWAYS sef

Most of us, our Gratitude is always Lip Service, and Eye Service. Sometimes, even Nose Service.

💯 TRUE

That's why I no send all those empty human praises online

essentialone1:
Most of us, our Gratitude is always Lip Service, and Eye Service. Sometimes, even Nose Service.

As seen on the internet

The people's IPO

Rutherinspace:
The truth is no one knows and you're only speculating. The problem is IPOs have shifted from growing companies to an exit ramp. That's when you experience those dips.
The free float for DR is too small for the price to dip to 300. Equities are long term investments and time in the market beats timing the market.

Free float valued at over N1 Trillion Naira is very very small

My layman's understanding of the prospectus... THIS is my one response to the many queries in my mail about this IPO

The Dangote Refinery is offering retail investors up to two bonus shares if they continuously hold their IPO shares for a period of two years.

To qualify for this incentive, investors must purchase a minimum of 10 shares during the public offering and maintain at least that minimum holding throughout the entire two-year period without selling.

In simple terms, you must hold your original IPO shares for two full years to qualify for the complete bonus entitlement. For example, if you purchase 10,000 shares, you must continue to hold all 10,000 shares for the full two years to be eligible for the additional two bonus shares.

I stand to be corrected

Ok. Then I really can't see what objective will be achieved by giving 1 share to someone who held 10 shares and 1 share to the one who held 1m shares. We shall see.

awesomeJ:
You're the only one guessing. The prospectus is written in plain English, take 2 minutes to read it or ask AI to help you interprete. It's on page 65 Ask as many questions as you want from the AI to clear your doubts.

Raider76:
Ok. Then I really can't see what objective will be achieved by giving 1 share to someone who held 10 shares and 1 share to the one who held 1m shares. We shall see.

Have you wondered why the program is indeed named Retail investors incentive program?

It's not meant to incentivise deep pocket holders.

As seen from AI

megawealth01:
My layman's understanding of the prospectus... THIS is my one response to the many queries in my mail about this IPO

The Dangote Refinery is offering retail investors up to two bonus shares if they continuously hold their IPO shares for a period of two years.

To qualify for this incentive, investors must purchase a minimum of 10 shares during the public offering and maintain at least that minimum holding throughout the entire two-year period without selling.

In simple terms, you must hold your original IPO shares for two full years to qualify for the complete bonus entitlement. For example, if you purchase 10,000 shares, you must continue to hold all 10,000 shares for the full two years to be eligible for the additional two bonus shares.

I stand to be corrected

Yes that appears to be the general interpretation but bolded seems to be absurd though. Not sure they thought it through