₦airaland Forum

faoogoke:
Accesscorp get one whale like that. It must be an HE. He shows up when market is about to close and drag the price down.

Lol.
It's one or two guys calling the shots there and dragging the price down for whatever reasons best known to them.

Ironically, the shareholding structure does not support the sell off at all....
Just 1Bn units created as Free Float, representing 20%.....

It could be that the "whale" cornered quite a larger % of the free float in order to be able to carry out his assignment on the stock.

I don't want to buy those PE talks and all that.
If the majority holders wants it at higher price, they know what to do.
TA works with volume and trading pattern/direction as well.

megawealth01:
I always have elections phobia few months/weeks to presidential elections

The past elections I have always exited the Nigerian markets weeks/months to the elections on my SECOND AXCOUNT

I like the coming of Dangote Refinery onboard by Nov ending.
It will give us enough liquidity to quietly do the needful.
The cloud is getting darker.

megawealth01:
As seen on the internet

Dangote refinery is now in mountainous debts, and in a concerted bid to raise more capital to sort out the debts, the company has cunningly asked poor Nigerians to come buy shares as low as 5k Naira.

Nigerian elites are the biggest problem of this country. They only remember poor Nigerians when things go south for them and their businesses.

What has Aliko Dangote done for Nigerians all the years he’s been making profits and topping the list as African richest man? Absolutely nothing!

Dangote sells a bag of cement far more expensive to Nigerians than he sells to Cameroonians, Ghanians, Ethiopians, Senegalese, Tanzanians, and Zambians.

Dangote cement sells across 10 African countries, and his home country where he produces these products with all the risk hazards, still buys Dangote cement more expensive than other countries where he exports to.

It is now time to settle mountainous debts, Dangote wants Nigerians to come buy 5k Naira shares in refinery 🤣.

So, if we leave you, you’ll send your urgent 5k to Dangote in the name of being a shareholder in a refinery. You want to be a refinery co-owner with 5k Naira 🤣.

They understand very well that you’re greedy, so they’ll keep riding on your insatiability to milk you to further enrich themselves.

Response to the internet:

An ignorant post by someone who apparently lacks an understanding of investment and the role of credit (debt) facility in investments and business

As seen on the internet

Reduce the volume joor

Stockpromoter:
I like the coming of Dangote Refinery onboard by Nov ending.
It will give us enough liquidity to quietly do the needful.
The cloud is getting darker.

Lagos, 16th September 2026
ANNOUNCEMENT TO NGX, SHAREHOLDERS AND THE INVESTING PUBLIC
Abbey Bank Plc ("the Bank") hereby announces that, following the completion of
the Bank's Private Placement of 26,562,647,265 ordinary shares of0.50k each at
2.43k per share.

SNAPSHOT OF THE NIGERIA EQUITIES MARKET AS AT CLOSE OF MARKET TODAY

Genz don enter IPO

As seen on the internet

For those who care to read about Avacap
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇

AVACAP — INVESTORS NEED TO WATCH THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT VERY CLOSELY

There is a lesson investors should take from what happened with Abbey Bank.

Abbey's share price had previously traded around ₦13 before the company moved ahead with a capital raise. The important lesson isn't the exact Abbey structure itself; it is what happens when a company needs substantial fresh capital and new shares enter the market.

AVACAP could face a similar situation.

AVACAP has four independently regulated businesses — investment banking, securities/stockbroking, asset management and trusteeship — and the SEC has substantially increased the minimum capital requirements for regulated capital-market operators.

The deadline for compliance is 30 June 2027.

And this is no longer speculation.

AVACAP itself has disclosed that its Board approved a private placement, subject to regulatory approval, as part of its plan to meet the revised capital requirements.

That is the part investors need to take seriously.

What could this mean?

We don't yet know the final size of the AVACAP placement.

We don't know the final price.

We don't know the number of new shares.

We don't know exactly who will subscribe.

Therefore, we cannot yet calculate the actual dilution.

But investors should understand the potential consequence.

If AVACAP needs to raise a substantial amount of money and does so by issuing a large number of new shares at a price below the prevailing market price, the existing share count could increase significantly.

That could put pressure on the market price and reduce existing shareholders' percentage ownership if they don't participate.

This is why I wouldn't rush to become bullish simply because AVACAP has fallen from ₦13 to around ₦4.50.

The market may be looking beyond today's price.

It may be asking:

"How many new shares are coming?"

"At what price?"

"How much dilution will existing shareholders face?"

"Who will take the new shares?"

"Will the major shareholders participate?"

Those questions cannot be answered until AVACAP releases the actual terms.

Learn from Abbey — but don't assume AVACAP will copy Abbey

Abbey Bank demonstrates how a capital raise can dramatically change a company's share structure.

But AVACAP's eventual transaction could be very different.

A private placement is specifically an offer of securities to selected or pre-arranged investors, while a rights issue gives existing shareholders an opportunity to subscribe in proportion to their existing holdings.

So we need to wait for AVACAP's actual structure before declaring the extent of dilution.

One thing is already clear

The private placement is not just market rumour anymore.

It is in AVACAP's financial statements as a Board-approved plan, subject to regulatory approval.

Therefore, anyone analysing AVACAP at ₦4.50 should have the potential capital raise in their calculation.

Don't look only at the current market capitalisation.

Don't look only at the H1 profit.

Look at the possible enlarged share capital.

That is the number that could ultimately determine what each existing share is worth after the capital raise.

For me, the next major AVACAP catalyst isn't simply a price bounce.

It is the disclosure of the private-placement terms.

Until we see the amount to be raised, issue price and number of new shares, I remain cautious about declaring the current price a bottom.

Watch the share price — but watch the coming share issuance even more closely.

AS SEEN ONLINE

Before You Buy Dangote Refinery Shares, Read This

(This article does not constitute financial advice. It is an analytical framework for thinking about a significant investment decision. Read the prospectus. Consult a financial adviser if you need one. I am not a financial analyst, only an observer of financial markets. Make your own informed decision.)

On Monday, September 7, 2026, Africa's richest man, walked into Eko Hotels in Lagos and signed the offering documents for Africa's largest IPO in history(1). The subscription window opens on September 14. The listing is expected in November. The target is 10 million Nigerian investors, subscribing at a minimum of 10 shares at ₦525 each. That's ₦5,250 to begin. The company is targeting a raise of ₦2.15 trillion, roughly $1.6 billion, from ordinary Nigerians and institutional investors alike.

The enthusiasm is everywhere. Aliko Dangote has described it as the "IPO of the people"(2) and social media is lapping it up. Financial commentators are even invoking Saudi Aramco(3). Politicians have aligned themselves with it (4) and there are videos of religious leaders blessing it (5). The narrative being constructed is one of historic participation (6). A follower on my page reported meeting two people at different locations yesterday echoing the message of "buy, buy, buy" (7). The message is all over the place. It's of "Finally, Nigerians get to own a piece of the infrastructure that has already transformed their fuel market". That narrative is emotionally compelling and partly true.

But Aliko Dangote is not doing charity with his refinery. And ₦525 per share is not a guaranteed path to wealth. Before the subscription window opens on September 14 , every potential investor deserves to understand what they are actually buying, not just the heavily-PR'ed version.

The Midas Myth

Let us begin with a fact that the current IPO fever is conveniently glossing over: Aliko Dangote has had business failures. Significant ones. The assumption embedded in much of the media commentary that this is Dangote, therefore it will succeed is not supported by the full record.

In October 2016, Dansa Foods, Dangote's fruit juice company, closed down, owing its workers six months of unpaid salaries (. In March 2016, Dangote launched Nigeria's largest tomato processing factory in Kano at a cost of $20 million (9), designed to process 1,200 metric tonnes of fresh tomatoes per day. By August 2017, it had shut down (10). The factory has been restarting and closing repeatedly ever since (11), defeated by Chinese import competition, inadequate supply of local tomatoes, high energy costs, and policy failures. In April 2017, Dangote Noodles went under (12). Dangote entered the textile industry and lost billions of naira before closing two facilities (13). He sold Liberty Merchant Bank for N1.2 billion (14).

The most instructive failure, however, is the flour business. In 2012, Dangote sold a 65 percent stake in Dangote Flour Mills to South Africa's Tiger Brands for $200 million (15). Tiger Brands struggled with intense competition and a market it had clearly misread. It suffered losses of $40.5 million in 2013 and $34.3 million in 2014, wrote off $120 million, and sold its stake back to Dangote in 2015 for exactly $1 (16). Dangote eventually sold Dangote Flour Mills to Olam (17).

The pattern across these ventures reveals something important: Dangote's most durable successes such as cement, fertiliser, and now the refinery, share a common characteristic. They operate in sectors where government policy provides structural protection and where the scale of capital required creates natural barriers to competition (18). Where those conditions were absent, the results have been less impressive.

The refinery has those favourable conditions in abundance. That is genuinely part of the bull case. But the Midas myth, that the man cannot fail, and that therefore the shares will only go up, is not a sound investment thesis.

The Valuation Question

At ₦525 per share, the implied valuation of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is approximately $47 billion (19). That is a serious number. For context, Turkey's Tupras, a comparable refinery business with similar processing capacity spread across four sites, is worth around $12 billion (20). US-listed HF Sinclair, with roughly 678,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, is worth around $16 billion (20). Dangote is being offered to investors at a multiple of between three and four times what comparable refinery businesses trade for internationally.

Of course, there are reasons why Dangote deserves a premium. The refinery is newer. It is strategically located in Africa's largest consumer market. It has significant export potential. It has growth opportunities. ADNOC, the Abu Dhabi national oil company, has reportedly opened discussions about a possible stake (21). Institutional interest of that calibre is a genuine signal of quality. But a $47 billion valuation means investors are already paying for a great deal of that future. If you are buying a fantastic company at an optimistic price, you can still make a poor investment. The history of IPOs globally is full of genuinely great businesses that underperformed for years after listing because the initial price already reflected all the good news. Snowflake in 2020 (22) and The Blackstone Group in 2007 (23) readily come to mind.

Beware the FOMO

The single largest psychological risk surrounding this IPO is what investors call FOMO - the fear of missing out. When Elon Musk's SpaceX was rumoured to be heading toward a public offering, retail investors rushed to acquire shares in secondary markets at prices that implied valuations of hundreds of billions of dollars, based almost entirely on the mythology of Musk rather than on a sober reading of SpaceX's financials. Many of them paid prices that subsequent secondary market corrections made look very expensive (24).

The Dangote IPO carries a structurally similar risk. The combination of Aliko Dangote's personal reputation, the genuine achievement of building the world's largest single-train refinery, the "IPO of the people" narrative, and the thirty-day subscription window creates precisely the conditions in which retail investors make hasty, emotionally driven decisions. People will rush to subscribe at ₦525. Many will not read the prospectus. Some will invest money they cannot afford to lose like retirement savings, school fees funds, and emergency reserves because they are afraid that the shares will immediately rise after listing and they will have missed their chance.

Here is what actually happens in many major IPOs. Initial enthusiasm drives strong subscription and a pop in the share price on listing day. Then the reality of the business and the growth trajectory is absorbed by the market over subsequent months. Prices correct. Sometimes significantly. The investors who subscribed on day one and held through a price correction are the ones who end up rationalising a bad decision by saying: "It is Dangote. It can only go up in the long run." That belief may ultimately prove correct. But it is not an investment thesis. It is a coping mechanism.

The Prospectus Matters

The prospectus signed on September 7 is expected to be available for public download before September 14. Read it. Not the summary. The actual document. Don't trust the media to distill the details for you. Under these circumstances, they are unlikely to. Read the actual document. Dangote's refinery does not publicly disclose detailed financial results in the way a mature listed company does. The prospectus will be the first time the public has access to audited financials for this business. The numbers you need to see before subscribing include revenue, gross profit, operating profit, EBITDA, finance costs, tax, profit after tax, operating cash flow, and free cash flow. Compare those numbers to the ₦525 share price. That analysis cannot be done without the document, and no responsible investment decision should be made without it.

The Crude Supply Problem

You might assume that the world's largest single-train refinery, located in the largest oil producing country in Africa, would have no problem sourcing crude. And you would be wrong. Reuters reports that as much as 40 percent of Dangote's current crude intake is imported (25). Some Nigerian crude is effectively tied up through oil-backed loans and pre-export financing arrangements (26), while Dangote has publicly complained that some Nigerian crude is priced at levels that make importing from abroad economically attractive (27). If the refinery doubles capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029 (28), as planned, the crude supply problem doubles in importance. A 1.4-million-barrel refinery is only valuable if you can fill it.

Refining Margins are Cyclical

The refinery has benefited from an unusually favourable global environment. Trump and his activities in Iran has been a blessing. These war disruptions have tightened fuel markets and made refining margins unusually attractive (29). But wars eventually end. Supply chains normalise. New refining capacity comes online. There are periods in the refining cycle when spreads between crude and refined products are wide and profitable. There are periods when they are not. The question the prospectus needs to answer is whether the projections are built on normalised margins or on the current exceptional environment.

And this is before discussing if electric cars will make a splash. Before you say electric cars are not feasible in Nigeria, remember that Dangote Refinery does global business.

Single-Asset Concentration

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is, in essence, one gigantic industrial facility. A diversified conglomerate can have one bad year in one business and another business absorbs the impact. A refinery cannot do that. A major technical failure, fire, accident, prolonged maintenance shutdown, equipment failure, or environmental incident would affect the entire enterprise simultaneously (30). That concentration risk is substantial and is the kind of factor that typically attracts a valuation discount in the market, not a premium. Dangote Refinery's IPO has it the other way round (31).

The $14.3 Billion Expansion

Dangote has announced plans to spend approximately $14.3 billion to double refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029 (32). This is potentially excellent for long-term shareholders. But expansion of this scale introduces execution risk that should not be underestimated. Considering this refinery's history since it was announced in 2013 (33), can the expansion be built on time and at the projected cost? Considering the supply8 issues it's already facing locally, can the additional crude supply be secured? Can the additional output be sold at adequate prices? Can the surrounding infrastructure handle double the volume? And crucially, will the incremental capital generate an adequate return for shareholders? The fact that the original refinery was successfully built, 8 years behind schedule, does not automatically mean the expansion will perform as projected. Every investment in the expansion has to earn its cost of capital.

Regulatory Risk and the Particularly Nigerian Dimension

The refinery operates in a sector where government policy is everything. Crude supply, import licences, tariffs, petroleum pricing, taxes, and environmental regulation all affect the business materially. The current government's support for market-determined fuel pricing is the foundation of the refinery's domestic commercial model. Any future reversal of subsidy removal (a la Atiku Abubakar (34)) - and Nigeria has reversed fuel policy decisions before (35) - would fundamentally alter the investment case. There has already been friction between Dangote and other industry players, with NNPC accusing the refinery of seeking to restrict competition by challenging import licences issued to rival fuel marketers (36). Whatever one's view of that specific dispute, it illustrates the structural fact of the refinery's success being intertwined with Nigerian public policy. Government can make Dangote enormously profitable. It can also change the rules.

The One Thing You Should Not Do

Do not subscribe simply because it is Dangote. The refinery can become one of Africa's greatest industrial success stories and the shares can still be overpriced at ₦525. Read the prospectus. Understand the debt. Know your time horizon. Be honest about how much you can afford to lose if the price corrects after listing. The subscription window will be opened for thirty days. Don't let anyone bamboozled you with the Fear Of Missing Out. There is no prize for being first.

May the markets be with you.

Selah

Just imagine something happens to the refinery..... That tanks your ajo money

Stockpromoter:
I like the coming of Dangote Refinery onboard by Nov ending.
It will give us enough liquidity to quietly do the needful.
The cloud is getting darker.

Loco am I correct? Please give me hint...no leave me alone fa

As seen on the internet

londonerr:
Just imagine something happens to the refinery..... That tanks your ajo money

Na wa ooo.
Goodwill or badwill?

As seen on the internet

WOW!!!

megawealth01:
As seen on the internet

WOW!!!

''Freezers are freezing'' is the yardstick for success for a whole power minister in a nation of over 200m people.?
What about industrial users of power, the manufacturers, metal and glass smelting companies etc. that consume huge power?

Incredible!

mikeapollo:
Na wa ooo.
Goodwill or badwill?

plan for all possibilities

Stockpromoter:
For those who care to read about Avacap
👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇👇

AVACAP — INVESTORS NEED TO WATCH THE PRIVATE PLACEMENT VERY CLOSELY

There is a lesson investors should take from what happened with Abbey Bank.

Abbey's share price had previously traded around ₦13 before the company moved ahead with a capital raise. The important lesson isn't the exact Abbey structure itself; it is what happens when a company needs substantial fresh capital and new shares enter the market.

AVACAP could face a similar situation.

AVACAP has four independently regulated businesses — investment banking, securities/stockbroking, asset management and trusteeship — and the SEC has substantially increased the minimum capital requirements for regulated capital-market operators.

The deadline for compliance is 30 June 2027.

And this is no longer speculation.

AVACAP itself has disclosed that its Board approved a private placement, subject to regulatory approval, as part of its plan to meet the revised capital requirements.

That is the part investors need to take seriously.

What could this mean?

We don't yet know the final size of the AVACAP placement.

We don't know the final price.

We don't know the number of new shares.

We don't know exactly who will subscribe.

Therefore, we cannot yet calculate the actual dilution.

But investors should understand the potential consequence.

If AVACAP needs to raise a substantial amount of money and does so by issuing a large number of new shares at a price below the prevailing market price, the existing share count could increase significantly.

That could put pressure on the market price and reduce existing shareholders' percentage ownership if they don't participate.

This is why I wouldn't rush to become bullish simply because AVACAP has fallen from ₦13 to around ₦4.50.

The market may be looking beyond today's price.

It may be asking:

"How many new shares are coming?"

"At what price?"

"How much dilution will existing shareholders face?"

"Who will take the new shares?"

"Will the major shareholders participate?"

Those questions cannot be answered until AVACAP releases the actual terms.

Learn from Abbey — but don't assume AVACAP will copy Abbey

Abbey Bank demonstrates how a capital raise can dramatically change a company's share structure.

But AVACAP's eventual transaction could be very different.

A private placement is specifically an offer of securities to selected or pre-arranged investors, while a rights issue gives existing shareholders an opportunity to subscribe in proportion to their existing holdings.

So we need to wait for AVACAP's actual structure before declaring the extent of dilution.

One thing is already clear

The private placement is not just market rumour anymore.

It is in AVACAP's financial statements as a Board-approved plan, subject to regulatory approval.

Therefore, anyone analysing AVACAP at ₦4.50 should have the potential capital raise in their calculation.

Don't look only at the current market capitalisation.

Don't look only at the H1 profit.

Look at the possible enlarged share capital.

That is the number that could ultimately determine what each existing share is worth after the capital raise.

For me, the next major AVACAP catalyst isn't simply a price bounce.

It is the disclosure of the private-placement terms.

Until we see the amount to be raised, issue price and number of new shares, I remain cautious about declaring the current price a bottom.

Watch the share price — but watch the coming share issuance even more closely.

Loco, where did you get this from?
Kindly refer to the page where you saw this.

* AVACAP is a newly listed Stock/Company and has barely listed in two months +
* She has barely submitted no FINANCIAL report to justify any Capital raise (the Q2 submitted was Unaudited)
* Recently.converted to a Public Company shortly before listing
* The Holding Period is not even yet 6months talk less of 12 months approved holding period
* No financial report track record of 3yrs or more to justify any fund raising yet...etc.
* Even if the Board approves Private Placement, SEC is not going to approve such......except I'm missing something here sha.

* If at all there's going to be a PP, wont the share price be going up rather?

londonerr:
Just imagine something happens to the refinery..... That tanks your ajo money

Shows the kind of mindset you have!!
Why wishing an innocent company bad?
If you're not buying then sound your likely warnings and allow individuals make their choices......good or bad.

So,.what if nothing bad happens and investors smiles to the bank instead?

well i wish all well madam Mercy.... but just imagine......

yMcy56:
Shows the kind of mindset you have!!
Why wishing an innocent company bad?
If you're not buying then sound your likely warnings and allow individuals make their choices......good or bad.

So,.what if nothing bad happens and investors smiles to the bank instead?

londonerr:
plan for all possibilities

Great!

*The ONLY 6 Nigerian Companies That Entered FTSE Frontier 50*

- *Aradel Holdings Plc*: Upstream energy
- *Dangote Cement Plc*: Industrial
- *FirstHoldCo Plc*: Banking
- *GTCO Plc*: Banking
- *MTN Nigeria Plc*: Telecoms
- *Zenith Bank Plc*: Banking

*The 10 Large-Cap Companies In Broad FTSE Frontier Index*
- *The 6 above plus:*
- *Nestle Nigeria Plc*
- *Nigerian Breweries Plc*
- *Presco Plc*
- *Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc*
- *Total Value*: N67.14 trillion combined

*Timeline*
- *September 2023*: Nigeria removed from frontier status due to FX repatriation issues
- *June 2023*: Naira floated
- *August 27, 2026*: Nigeria reclassified back to Frontier Market
- *September 18, 2026*: 6 companies officially added to FTSE Frontier 50
- *September 21, 2026*: Effective date for ETF buying

londonerr:
well i wish all well madam Mercy.... but just imagine......

Your imagination may be valid. It is part of the risks involved,.
But similar risks apply to every other stock on NGX. e.g. just imagine ''something happens'' to Seplat and Aradel upstream operations, MTN head office, Nestle factory, Dangote Cement factory, etc

A summary of today's trading session on the NGX.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B29AnPv_vN4

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3WdPYs9vKy72Ev9ygQB3Zx?si=z6clvamiQXaJzAqKL4H_3A

No mind them Madam. Many of those writing such actually wish for the IPO to fail. Small minds stop at small thoughts.

yMcy56:
Shows the kind of mindset you have!!
Why wishing an innocent company bad?
If you're not buying then sound your likely warnings and allow individuals make their choices......good or bad.

So,.what if nothing bad happens and investors smiles to the bank instead?

londonerr:
well i wish all well madam Mercy.... but just imagine......

I hope you imagine what could happen to your investments if something happens too.
Better to keep your imagination to yourself because it doesn't align with reality sir.

Reality check:
Dangote Refinery is still the only functioning Refinery in Nigeria at the moment...
Nothing must happen to it by God's grace.....otherwise, everybody go collect one way or the other.

You can only advice people, you can't force your opinion on any.

mikeapollo:
Your imagination may be valid. It is part of the risks involved,.
But similar risks apply to every other stock on NGX. e.g. just imagine ''something happens'' to Seplat forex edge and Aradel upstream operations forex edge, MTN head office Not Applicable, Nestle factory Multiple locations, Dangote Cement factory Multiple locations and extremely overpriced products, etc

DR is unique.... Saudi Arabia is feeling it at the moment

Dansa, Dangote flour, and Dagote foods are also by small minds? Which competitive industry has Dangote thrived?

Raider76:
No mind them Madam. Many of those writing such actually wish for the IPO to fail. Small minds stop at small thoughts.

londonerr:
DR is unique.... Saudi Arabia is feeling it at the moment

So you mean DR will be feeling it too?
Is DR (or Nigeria) fighting any ''Houthi rebels'' in Nigeria?
Na wa ooo

yMcy56:
Loco, where did you get this from?
Kindly refer to the page where you saw this.

* AVACAP is a newly listed Stock/Company and has barely listed in two months +
* She has barely submitted no FINANCIAL report to justify any Capital raise (the Q2 submitted was Unaudited)
* Recently.converted to a Public Company shortly before listing
* The Holding Period is not even yet 6months talk less of 12 months approved holding period
* No financial report track record of 3yrs or more to justify any fund raising yet...etc.
* Even if the Board approves Private Placement, SEC is not going to approve such......except I'm missing something here sha.

* If at all there's going to be a PP, wont the share price be going up rather?

Thanks for raising these points. They are valid questions, but I think there is one important distinction here.

I did not say AVACAP has already completed a private placement or that SEC has approved it.

What I said is that AVACAP itself disclosed in its H1 2026 financial statement that its Board approved a resolution to undertake a private placement, subject to regulatory approvals.

You can find it under Note (k) — Capital Requirement Revision in the company's financial statement. It states that following the SEC's revision of minimum capital requirements for capital-market operators, with a compliance deadline of 30 June 2027, the Board approved the private placement as part of the Group's plan to meet the revised requirement.

So this is not a rumour from me. It is in AVACAP's own filing.

Now, I agree with you on one important point: we do not yet know the size, pricing or final structure of the proposed placement, and it remains subject to regulatory approval.

That is precisely why I am asking investors to pay attention.

On the argument that AVACAP is too newly listed

Being newly listed does not remove the SEC's new capital requirements.

The SEC's January 2026 circular applies to regulated capital-market entities, and affected entities have until 30 June 2027 to comply. The requirements include substantially higher capital thresholds for broker-dealers, portfolio managers, trustees and other regulated functions.

So the relevant question isn't whether AVACAP has been listed for six months or twelve months.

The relevant question is:

Which regulated activities do AVACAP's subsidiaries conduct, what capital is required for those activities, and how will the Group meet those requirements before the deadline?

On the fact that Q2 is unaudited

Correct — the H1/Q2 financial statements are unaudited.

But the private-placement disclosure is not based on me treating the unaudited profit as justification for a capital raise.

The company itself disclosed the Board resolution because of the new regulatory capital requirements.

And the SEC has explicitly said that the revised requirements apply to regulated entities and that affected entities must comply by June 30, 2027.

"SEC will not approve it because the company is too new"

That is currently an assumption.

We don't know whether SEC will approve the eventual transaction, nor do we know what conditions SEC may impose.

What we do know is that AVACAP has already said the proposed private placement is subject to regulatory approval.

Therefore, I am not saying:

"SEC has approved it."

I am saying:

"AVACAP has proposed it and is waiting for regulatory approval."

Those are two completely different statements.

"If there is going to be a private placement, won't the share price go up?"

Not necessarily.

A private placement brings in capital, but it can also create uncertainty about:

- the amount being raised;
- the issue price;
- the number of new shares;
- who gets the shares;
- the resulting ownership structure; and
- the potential dilution to existing shareholders.

SEC itself describes a private placement as an offer of securities to specific or pre-arranged buyers.

Whether the market reacts positively or negatively depends heavily on the eventual terms and what investors believe the new capital will accomplish.

And this is exactly my point

I am not bearish because AVACAP is raising capital.

I am saying investors should not ignore the capital-raising issue when trying to value the stock.

At ₦4.50, we should be asking:

What will AVACAP's share structure look like after the capital raise?

Until we know the placement price and number of new shares, we cannot calculate the actual dilution.

So I am not predicting the dilution.

I am asking investors to prepare for the possibility and wait for the actual terms.

The company has already put the private placement in its financial statement.

The next question is not whether AVACAP mentioned it — it did.

The next question is:

What exactly will SEC approve, how much will be raised, at what price, and how many new shares will enter the market?

That's the information I believe every AVACAP investor should be watching before becoming aggressively bullish again.

londonerr:
Dansa, Dangote flour, and Dagote foods are also by small minds? Which competitive industry has Dangote thrived?

DANSA was not owned by Aliko Dangote.
It was owned by his brother, the late Alhaji Sanni Dangote. DANSA is the abbreviation of his names.
Their production factory was located somewhere at Ojo-Badagry expressway