₦airaland Forum

essentialone1:
Na so you hate Oando?

ghm:
It is the only loser and worst performing stock in my portfolio, I have let it's fellow laggers go but it's potential didn't allow me to let it go.

essentialone1:
Reserves attract speculators. Balance sheet determines if institutions can come in. Oando today has the first, but fails the second.

*1. The going concern flag is not a technicality. It is a disqualifier.*

When auditors include "material uncertainty related to going concern" it automatically triggers a breach in most institutional mandates.

For Oando's FY2025, the auditor cited:

- Recurring net liabilities - negative equity of N567 billion
- Significant working capital deficiency
- Multiple loan defaults
- Exposure to enforcement of security over assets
- Uncertainty over management's funding plans.

Under IFRS, that means the company is technically insolvent - total liabilities N8.01 trillion exceed total assets. It continues to operate on the basis of a Letter of Financial Support or Guarantee from its majority shareholder. For a pension fund, insurer, or a group like Heirs Energies, that letter is not bankable collateral. Their risk committee cannot approve a position where solvency depends on an unverified shareholder guarantee.

Seplat and Aradel do not have this clause. That alone removes Oando from the investable universe for many.

*2. The earnings quality problem.*

OandO FY2025 reported EPS of N30. It looks strong optically, but:

- Finance costs nearly doubled: N236bn to N465bn
- Operating cash flow: only N32.3bn positive against N8.01 trillion liabilities
- Revenue down 22% YoY, with a gross loss of N2.76bn reported.
- Profit supported by non-recurring items: finance income, tax credits, impairment reversals.

An institutional analyst will strip those out and look at sustainable operating cash flow. On that basis:

- Seplat: $1.17bn operating cash flow, net debt down to $673m, 40-50% dividend payout policy. Cash flows fund both debt service and shareholder returns.
- Aradel: clean balance sheet, low leverage, which is why a single buyer could pay N390bn for 15.92% at N559.50 per share - valuing the whole company at over N2.4 trillion without a going-concern discount.

*3. Debt overhang kills reserve value.*

Oando is the largest indigenous holder of 2P reserves, that is factual. But reserves only create equity value after debt is serviced.

With N465bn in finance costs and only N32.3bn in operating cash flow, free cash flow to equity is negative before capex for reserve development. Any barrel produced first goes to lenders.

This is why Analysts' fair value of N123 on asset NAV and the market price of N34 of Oando Plc, can both be rational. N123 is asset value. N34 is asset value minus debt risk, enforcement risk, and dilution risk. The gap is the market pricing the balance sheet.

*Why Elumelu chose Seplat Plc over Oando Plc is logical:*

1. He is increasing a controlling stake from 20.07% to 21.07% - he needs a board, dividend, and ability to consolidate without going-concern risk.
2. Seplat has just integrated MPNU assets and has clear cash flow to deleverage.
3. He can become Chairman in January 2027 with a clean governance path. No institutional board would approve a Chairman appointment at a company with negative equity and multiple loan defaults.

Until Oando does a definitive balance sheet repair - debt-to-equity conversion, asset sale with debt paydown, or a large equity raise that restores positive equity and removes the going concern qualification - it stays in the speculative basket.

Institutions don't avoid it because they missed the reserves. They avoid it because their mandate forbids them from investing in negative equity companies with loan defaults, regardless of reserves.

Stockpromoter:
🔥 CRITICAL MINERALS RALLY — JAPAULGOLD ON THE RADAR?

CMFC’s powerful rally is putting mining stocks back on investors’ radar.

And naturally, eyes may start shifting toward JAPAULGOLD — a listed Nigerian mining play with its own gold-development story.

📌 CMFC rally → Mining sector attention → Investors screen JAPAULGOLD

Now the real question is:

Will watchlist interest turn into volume and sustained buying? 👀

JAPAULGOLD remains one to WATCH. ⛏️🥇

Loco is watching the volume. 📊

essentialone1:
Reserves attract speculators. Balance sheet determines if institutions can come in. Oando today has the first, but fails the second.

*1. The going concern flag is not a technicality. It is a disqualifier.*

When auditors include "material uncertainty related to going concern" it automatically triggers a breach in most institutional mandates.

For Oando's FY2025, the auditor cited:

- Recurring net liabilities - negative equity of N567 billion
- Significant working capital deficiency
- Multiple loan defaults
- Exposure to enforcement of security over assets
- Uncertainty over management's funding plans.

Under IFRS, that means the company is technically insolvent - total liabilities N8.01 trillion exceed total assets. It continues to operate on the basis of a Letter of Financial Support or Guarantee from its majority shareholder. For a pension fund, insurer, or a group like Heirs Energies, that letter is not bankable collateral. Their risk committee cannot approve a position where solvency depends on an unverified shareholder guarantee.

Seplat and Aradel do not have this clause. That alone removes Oando from the investable universe for many.

*2. The earnings quality problem.*

OandO FY2025 reported EPS of N30. It looks strong optically, but:

- Finance costs nearly doubled: N236bn to N465bn
- Operating cash flow: only N32.3bn positive against N8.01 trillion liabilities
- Revenue down 22% YoY, with a gross loss of N2.76bn reported.
- Profit supported by non-recurring items: finance income, tax credits, impairment reversals.

An institutional analyst will strip those out and look at sustainable operating cash flow. On that basis:

- Seplat: $1.17bn operating cash flow, net debt down to $673m, 40-50% dividend payout policy. Cash flows fund both debt service and shareholder returns.
- Aradel: clean balance sheet, low leverage, which is why a single buyer could pay N390bn for 15.92% at N559.50 per share - valuing the whole company at over N2.4 trillion without a going-concern discount.

*3. Debt overhang kills reserve value.*

Oando is the largest indigenous holder of 2P reserves, that is factual. But reserves only create equity value after debt is serviced.

With N465bn in finance costs and only N32.3bn in operating cash flow, free cash flow to equity is negative before capex for reserve development. Any barrel produced first goes to lenders.

This is why Analysts' fair value of N123 on asset NAV and the market price of N34 of Oando Plc, can both be rational. N123 is asset value. N34 is asset value minus debt risk, enforcement risk, and dilution risk. The gap is the market pricing the balance sheet.

*Why Elumelu chose Seplat Plc over Oando Plc is logical:*

1. He is increasing a controlling stake from 20.07% to 21.07% - he needs a board, dividend, and ability to consolidate without going-concern risk.
2. Seplat has just integrated MPNU assets and has clear cash flow to deleverage.
3. He can become Chairman in January 2027 with a clean governance path. No institutional board would approve a Chairman appointment at a company with negative equity and multiple loan defaults.

Until Oando does a definitive balance sheet repair - debt-to-equity conversion, asset sale with debt paydown, or a large equity raise that restores positive equity and removes the going concern qualification - it stays in the speculative basket.

Institutions don't avoid it because they missed the reserves. They avoid it because their mandate forbids them from investing in negative equity companies with loan defaults, regardless of reserves.

Calebbold:
I tried opening the corporate Disclosures or financial statements of companies listed on the nigeria stock exchange site but it doesn't open.
Please can anyone confirm if they are experiencing something similar?

essentialone1:
Reserves attract speculators. Balance sheet determines if institutions can come in. Oando today has the first, but fails the second.

*1. The going concern flag is not a technicality. It is a disqualifier.*

When auditors include "material uncertainty related to going concern" it automatically triggers a breach in most institutional mandates.

For Oando's FY2025, the auditor cited:

- Recurring net liabilities - negative equity of N567 billion
- Significant working capital deficiency
- Multiple loan defaults
- Exposure to enforcement of security over assets
- Uncertainty over management's funding plans.

Under IFRS, that means the company is technically insolvent - total liabilities N8.01 trillion exceed total assets. It continues to operate on the basis of a Letter of Financial Support or Guarantee from its majority shareholder. For a pension fund, insurer, or a group like Heirs Energies, that letter is not bankable collateral. Their risk committee cannot approve a position where solvency depends on an unverified shareholder guarantee.

Seplat and Aradel do not have this clause. That alone removes Oando from the investable universe for many.

*2. The earnings quality problem.*

OandO FY2025 reported EPS of N30. It looks strong optically, but:

- Finance costs nearly doubled: N236bn to N465bn
- Operating cash flow: only N32.3bn positive against N8.01 trillion liabilities
- Revenue down 22% YoY, with a gross loss of N2.76bn reported.
- Profit supported by non-recurring items: finance income, tax credits, impairment reversals.

An institutional analyst will strip those out and look at sustainable operating cash flow. On that basis:

- Seplat: $1.17bn operating cash flow, net debt down to $673m, 40-50% dividend payout policy. Cash flows fund both debt service and shareholder returns.
- Aradel: clean balance sheet, low leverage, which is why a single buyer could pay N390bn for 15.92% at N559.50 per share - valuing the whole company at over N2.4 trillion without a going-concern discount.

*3. Debt overhang kills reserve value.*

Oando is the largest indigenous holder of 2P reserves, that is factual. But reserves only create equity value after debt is serviced.

With N465bn in finance costs and only N32.3bn in operating cash flow, free cash flow to equity is negative before capex for reserve development. Any barrel produced first goes to lenders.

This is why Analysts' fair value of N123 on asset NAV and the market price of N34 of Oando Plc, can both be rational. N123 is asset value. N34 is asset value minus debt risk, enforcement risk, and dilution risk. The gap is the market pricing the balance sheet.

*Why Elumelu chose Seplat Plc over Oando Plc is logical:*

1. He is increasing a controlling stake from 20.07% to 21.07% - he needs a board, dividend, and ability to consolidate without going-concern risk.
2. Seplat has just integrated MPNU assets and has clear cash flow to deleverage.
3. He can become Chairman in January 2027 with a clean governance path. No institutional board would approve a Chairman appointment at a company with negative equity and multiple loan defaults.

Until Oando does a definitive balance sheet repair - debt-to-equity conversion, asset sale with debt paydown, or a large equity raise that restores positive equity and removes the going concern qualification - it stays in the speculative basket.

Institutions don't avoid it because they missed the reserves. They avoid it because their mandate forbids them from investing in negative equity companies with loan defaults, regardless of reserves.

essentialone1:
Here is what the GTCO Bank Plc audited H1 2026 filing actually shows:

*Verified P&L - H1 2026 vs H1 2025:*

- Gross earnings: N1.11tn, +3.25% YoY
- Interest income: N873.39bn, +7.51%
- Interest expense: N223.79bn, +24.24% - driven by 39.8% surge in interest on customer deposits to N205.77bn
- Net interest income: N649.60bn, +2.75%
- Loan impairment: N18.72bn (+11% YoY), or (-65.94%) vs H1 25 depending on classification, but both agree it is low at under N19bn
- Net fee & commission: N123.03bn, -8.98%
- Other income: N44.35bn, -37.5% from N70.92bn
- Trading gains: N47.3bn, +24.7%
- PBT: N603.03bn, +0.35% from N600.9bn - flat
- Tax: N188.85bn, +24.33% to N188.85bn - effective tax rate 31.3% vs 25.3% last year due to CIT changes, non-deductible expenses, development levy
- PAT: N414.19bn, -7.76% from N449.01bn
- EPS: N11.18 vs N13.59, -17.73% - fall is steeper than PAT because of increased share count from 2024/25 capital raise.

*Balance sheet:*
- Total assets: N18.62tn, +4.81% from Dec 2025
- Customer deposits: N13.97tn, +11.32% from N12.55tn
- Loans: N3.15tn, +0.48% from N3.13tn
- Total equity: N3.32tn, -2.82% - decline driven by dividend payouts, not losses
- Cash: N4.14tn, -21.72%

*What actually happened?*

It is not a "disaster" or "institutional decay." It is a classic Nigerian bank H1 2026 squeeze:

1. *Funding cost squeeze:* Interest income grew 7.5%, but interest expense grew 24.2%. That wiped out most of the NII gain.
2. *Tax squeeze:* PAT fell only because tax rose by N36.9bn. PBT was actually up. This affected all banks due to new CIT rules on capital allowances and development levy.
3. *Non-interest weakness:* Fee income and other income fell, as you noted. That was offset by trading gains.

Management's own comment: "Fair value movements weighed on reported earnings, but the core business held firm... asset quality improved" - with focus on non-banking growth. HabariPay, Fund Managers and Pension together did N15.94bn PBT, +85% YoY.

*Market reaction:*
Shares fell 3.3% to N132.50 on Tuesday Sept 29 after publication, despite being up 46.1% YTD from N90.70 at start of year. Board kept interim dividend at N1.00, same as H1 2025.

*On the Zenith / Fidelity / female leadership comparison:*

Q1 vs H1 is not comparable. Zenith Q1 PAT of N314bn is a quarterly figure, GTCO H1 PAT of N414bn is half-year. And loan growth of 0.48% is a deliberate risk decision across tier-1 banks after CBN recapitalization — preserving asset quality, not "hoarding."

If you want to judge GTBank vs peers, compare H1 2026 on same basis: NIM, cost-to-income, effective tax rate, and deposit growth — not gender narratives.

GTCO is not losing its golden egg status, it is repricing deposits and paying more tax. The real question for H2 is whether it can convert its N13.97tn deposit base into risk-adjusted loan growth without impairing asset quality.

IamR:
Try this - https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/data/corporate-disclosures/

Calebbold:
I tried opening the corporate Disclosures or financial statements of companies listed on the nigeria stock exchange site but it doesn't open.
Please can anyone confirm if they are experiencing something similar?

Calebbold:
The site can open. Try clicking on a particular company, then click on the financial statement or corporate Disclosures and check of its going to open.

Agbalowomeri:
Oga today is independence day
Go and rest

IamR:
You're right. Maybe because of the holiday.

essentialone1:
The networth of Tony Elumelu in Seplat Plc alone is presently N2,022,412,640,000 (2.02 Trillion Naira).

emmanuelewumi:
Minus his bank loan of $700 million

Agbalowomeri:
NET
meaning he already subtracted that.
He already made over $1B on paper

Stockpromoter:
Happy independence

Agbalowomeri:
NET
meaning he already subtracted that.
He already made over $1B on paper

megawealth01:
As seen on the internet

megawealth01:
Na how to start buying shares in the aviation industry of ISRAEL dey my mind now...

Ak47young:
Has anyone who bought First HoldCo shares at ₦110 in the August 2026 RC Investment secondary sale received/seen the shares credited to their CSCS account?

mikeapollo:
Netanyahu's speech/statement at the 81st UNGA might have infuriated a lot of people: ''We must win; we have no other choice''!
Saying this to the face of your eternal enemies can be so frustrating!