₦airaland Forum

ayobama1:
The same is true of "emi lo kan"🤪

essentialone1:
This rejoinder lands a cleaner punch than the original attack did — because it separates _earnings volatility_ from _structural decline_.

The core of its argument, stripped of rhetoric:

*1. One bad half-year ≠ institutional decay*
GTCO H1 26: PAT N414.19bn -7.8% YoY, PBT N603.03bn +0.35%, tax +24.3% to N188.85bn. That is a tax and funding-cost squeeze, not a capital adequacy crisis. You need sustained deterioration in asset quality, capital, liquidity, ROE, efficiency — not one period — to declare a "falling institution."

The farming analogy in the piece is apt: single bad harvest doesn't mean the farmer forgot how to farm.

*2. Selective comparison fails*
Nkem's piece held up Fidelity (38% gross earnings growth in Q1 26) as benchmark while ignoring that Fidelity paid *no final dividend for FY2025*, while GTCO paid *N11 final dividend* for FY2025 — under same CEO Miriam Olusanya being criticized. If you want to compare, compare comprehensively: dividends, capital, ROE over 3 years, not one quarter.

Also the Zenith Q1 PAT N314bn vs GTCO H1 PAT N414bn is a mismatched period comparison.

*3. CEO credit/blame symmetry*
You can't credit the CEO for N11 dividend in FY25 and then blame her personally for a -7.8% PAT dip in H1 26 driven by CBN-regulated tax changes and industry-wide 24% jump in interest expense on deposits. That is advocacy, not analysis.

*4. The ethnic lens warning*
Most important part of the rejoinder: Nigeria has a habit of dragging Igbo/Yoruba arithmetic into bank performance debates. GTCO belongs to shareholders, not an ethnic bloc. Measure it in capital, governance, profitability, risk — not tribe.

*5. What serious criticism should look like — the rejoinder's test:*
- Is balance sheet weakening? Show CAR, NPL ratio.
- Is dividend unsustainable? Show distributable reserves.
- Is franchise eroding? Show deposit and customer attrition — but deposits actually grew 11.32% to N13.97tn.
- Strategic error? Identify and quantify it.

> "The man who says the roof is leaking should be able to point to the hole."

Right now, GTCO's hole is: funding cost up 24.2% to N223.79bn, fee income down 8.98% to N123bn, other income down 37.5% to N44.35bn. Manageable, not fatal. Banking PBT still N — but Group non-banking (Payments, Pension, Funds) is growing to diversify.

*Verdict on the verdict:*

Nkem's original piece confused a setback (PAT down due to N36.9bn extra tax) with a structural collapse.

This rejoinder correctly says: let the numbers speak. Annual report is the evidence, market is jury, time is final judge.

If you hold GTCO, watch Q3: does loan growth move from 0.48% to something real? Does cost-to-income stabilize? Does effective tax rate stay at 31.3%? That will tell you if it's temporary pressure or true decay.

essentialone1:
Most people think H1 delay = problem. In reality it's *choice of audit route*.

*NGX / CBN rule:*
- You can file H1 as *unaudited* — 60 days after period end, no CBN deep audit needed. Quick flash. That's what FirstHoldCo, FCMB, Wema, Fidelity sometimes do.
- But *if you want to pay an interim dividend*, CBN + SEC Rules say: you must file *audited* interim. And audited interim must go through full pipeline.

That pipeline is why Zenith, UBA, AccessCorp are late this year:

*1. External auditor layer:* PwC / KPMG / EY must do full IAS 34 interim audit, review impairment models, fair value on securities, FX positions. Takes 6-8 weeks post June 30.

*2. CBN Banking Supervision layer:* Board approves (GTCO July 28, Zenith July 29, UBA Aug 13) and submits to CBN. CBN reviews asset quality, IFRS 9 provisions, capital adequacy, related party, dividend capacity. This year CBN tightened — they are querying NPL classifications, forbearance loans, and capital deductions from recapitalization exercises. They can send it back for adjustments.

*3. NGX layer:* Only after CBN gives "No objection" can NGX authorize publication. NGX then gives extension formally — GTCO/Access/UBA till Sept 30, Zenith till Oct 9.

So delay is *structural, not operational collapse.*

Why would a bank voluntarily take this slower, painful route?

Because interim dividend is a signaling tool. Tier-1 banks compete on it. Investors price banks on interim yield. Paying N1, N4.50 etc in September locks in shareholder loyalty before FY.

If you file unaudited, you cannot pay interim. That's why GTCO took the pain, got CBN clearance Sept 28, published Sept 29, and kept N1.00 interim same as last year. Stanbic IBTC did same — audited H1 published Sept 30 with N4.50 interim.

*Zenith, UBA, AccessCorp* chose the same dividend-paying route, so they are in same queue. It says nothing about PBT collapse — it says they intend to pay interim and are waiting for CBN stamp.

The real red flag to watch is not delay, but: after CBN clearance, do they *cut* interim vs last year? That would signal capital preservation. If they maintain or increase, the delay was just bureaucracy.

That's why UBA FY2025 case was different — that was year-end audited, not H1, and they had already promised capital raise, so withholding final dividend was capital decision, not audit bottleneck.

In short: H1 2026 delays = audited dividend-payer bottleneck, not hidden loss.

faoogoke:
Just back from accesscorp twitter page demanding when they are releasing H1 results paying dividend

mikeapollo:
Netanyahu's speech/statement at the 81st UNGA might have infuriated a lot of people: ''We must win; we have no other choice''!
Saying this to the face of your eternal enemies can be so frustrating!

Raider76:
Kenya's Ruto Vows Dangote Refinery Construction Unstoppable

https://share.google/qIz1nQowu51THxQdo

faoogoke:
Just back from accesscorp twitter page demanding when they are releasing H1 results paying dividend

londonerr:
Kenya is not Nigeria. The rule of law and the vibrancy of the populace is high...their morale is very high ... He should watch it

essentialone1:
The backstory to today's listing of TIP shares.

*Timeline for The Initiates Plc (TIP) Rights Issue:*

- *Offer:* 177,996,310 shares of 50 kobo at N7.00
- *Basis:* 1 new for every 5 held as at 1 Aug 2025
- *Original dates:* Opened 5 Nov 2025, close 12 Dec 2025
- *Extension:* SEC approval to extend, rights trading closed *Monday 12 Jan 2026*
- *Registrar:* Apel Capital Registrar Limited

So the Rights dragged from Nov 2025 to Jan 2026 — 2 months extension. Common when subscription is slow or SEC wants wider participation.

That Rights was only half the story. They simultaneously ran a *Public Offer of 932,022,138 shares at N9.50.*

Both offers are what got listed *yesterday Sept 30, 2026* on NGX Bulletin:

- Rights proceeds: N1.246bn
- Public Offer proceeds: N8.854bn
- *Total new capital ~N10.10bn*
- Total issued now: *2bn shares* (from 889.9m before)

So extension in January explains why listing only happened now in September — allotment, SEC clearance, and NGX listing take months after close.

If you bought Rights at N7 in that window, your shares are now tradable from Sept 30.

Raider76:
Kenya's Ruto Vows Dangote Refinery Construction Unstoppable

https://share.google/qIz1nQowu51THxQdo

vacanci:
I participated in the rights issue. Got my allotment and I have sold them months ago.

What do you mean by those shares will only become tradable from September 30th. Something that I have cleaned my mouth since?

Even the public offer, many people have sold off. I suppose people were the ones that bought from them. Does that not mean trade? Since sellers have been doing their thing and buyers have equality been responding, I guess those shares have become tradable right from the day they were allotted.

I don't understand the ceremony going on

vacanci:
I participated in the rights issue. Got my allotment and I have sold them months ago.

What do you mean by those shares will only become tradable from September 30th. Something that I have cleaned my mouth since?

Even the public offer, many people have sold off. I suppose people were the ones that bought from them. Does that not mean trade? Since sellers have been doing their thing and buyers have equality been responding, I guess those shares have become tradable right from the day they were allotted.

I don't understand the ceremony going on

londonerr:
Kenya is not Nigeria. The rule of law and the vibrancy of the populace is high...their morale is very high ... He should watch it

Raider76:
I believe Dangote must have calculated the political risks in Kenya. Remember that he is operating in several African countries with varying political risks which he must have navigated successfully. This is also not the first time he is investing in Kenya. He tried that with cement before and learnt a lot of lessons. In this case he has the government on his side. He is bringing in an unprecedented investment. It is up to Ruto, who also has his polical legacy hanging on the success of the refinery project, to handle the local politics.