₦airaland Forum

After much skepticism, I pulled the trigger and bought. I suspect we'll see near-term earnings support for the stock post-listing, given the wide spread between crude and distillates. That spread is the result of low refining capacity, so I'm not sure it matters if crude stabilizes at your suggested range. And there's only going to be more conflict in the Middle East post the US midterm elections, as Trump cannot let a stalemate taint his dread of being called a loser. In any case, I bet Dangote has supply contracts locked in at current spreads for while as winter descends upon energy-poor Europe.

And the big boys are locked in for a year, constraining trading supply. This stock will surprise people into 2027 is my bet. We'll see.

courage89:
Not buying the IPO. I want to see petroleum products spreads for next year, when crude oil drops to around $70-$90.Global petrol prices, jet fuel, diesel should have subsided, down to predictable range. Hopefully, get a glimpse of their numbers during stable crude oil prices. I can start buying gradually, project into the future impact of new 700 kbarrels facility, expanded high profit margin businesses including; polypropylene production and Linear Alkyl Benzene production on the business.

megamart247:
DANGOTE Refinery doesn't worth more than #200.

Meanwhile OANDO doesn't worth more than #10

Nigerians will learn a new thing

Megawealth01 you can't be using two monikers here

megawealth01:
You gerrit ba?

I honestly doubt if the big boiz are buying this IPO

I've been monitoring all activities around the IPO.... I notice na mainly low income earners, middle earners etc dey excited...I might be wrong sha

Big boys have bought during the private placement.

Check the writing style... I have two monikers which I haven't used for a long time... Namely: Chibaby and MEGAWEALTH02. Those two monikers are open for all who knows me and my style of writing

londonerr:
Megawealth01 you can't be using two monikers here

HesInMe:
After much skepticism, I pulled the trigger and bought. I suspect we'll see near-term earnings support for the stock post-listing, given the wide spread between crude and distillates. That spread is the result of low refining capacity, so I'm not sure it matters if crude stabilizes at your suggested range. And there's only going to be more conflict in the Middle East post the US midterm elections, as Trump cannot let a stalemate taint his dread of being called a loser. In any case, I bet Dangote has supply contracts locked in at current spreads for while as winter descends upon energy-poor Europe.

And the big boys are locked in for a year, constraining trading supply. This stock will surprise people into 2027 is my bet. We'll see.

Because you don buy now, it will surprise people

You won't understand this game so just buy what you can and relax to watch gamers with them gamings

ghm:
Big boys have bought during the private placement.

WOW

HesInMe:
After much skepticism, I pulled the trigger and bought. I suspect we'll see near-term earnings support for the stock post-listing, given the wide spread between crude and distillates. That spread is the result of low refining capacity, so I'm not sure it matters if crude stabilizes at your suggested range. And there's only going to be more conflict in the Middle East post the US midterm elections, as Trump cannot let a stalemate taint his dread of being called a loser. In any case, I bet Dangote has supply contracts locked in at current spreads for while as winter descends upon energy-poor Europe.

And the big boys are locked in for a year, constraining trading supply. This stock will surprise people into 2027 is my bet. We'll see.

SonofElElyonRet:
Don't rule out the possibility of Dangote refinery Nigeria having shares in dangote refinery Kenya... Would be the patriotic thing for Dangote to do. Not necessarily majority shares

Most likely it won't.

It is the Dangote Group—the parent company—that owns the majority stakes in most Dangote companies. That is where the Kenyan refinery stake would sit, not under the Nigerian refinery.

Peterlove11:
If I had known of this tactics, I would have done this with my oando shares. I bought at the top above 50naira. Now I don hook.

I feel you

megawealth01:
Check the writing style... I have two monikers which I haven't used for a long time... Namely: Chibaby and MEGAWEALTH02. Those two monikers are open for all who knows me and my style of writing

So you're chibaby and megawealth001

Agbalowomeri:
You think they don't know what they are doing? By the time it nosedives to 20, they will now bring out 1 for 1 right issue. Of course most people will not subscribe. That leaves the majority owner to further accumulate more percentage of the company.

For further clarity.
Common sense value then was 7.7 and now 77 on EPS of 15.4 annualized. Can they pay out at least N3.00? They have to.


Prior
0.77 x 2 = 1.54
1.54 x 5 = 7.7

Agbalowomeri:
Because you don buy now, it will surprise people

Naso, baba must perosoko na.
Boiz must chop...onaofun ona orun.
If you no understand Yoruba..na u know oo..

Oga nosa is almost at the village to meet peter as we are speaking.....
Had it been he no hoard that stock pick, he for see people join body to village now.

Adaje, adaku..

Na agba say make I talk am..

crownprince2017:
Oga nosa is almost at the village to meet peter as we are speaking.....
Had it been he no hoard that stock pick, he for see people join body to village now.

Adaje, adaku..

Na agba say make I talk am..

How person go accummulate and hoard illiquid stock based on one quarter result which may not be sustained

megawealth01:
Like we are praying daily ABOUT OANDO and Wale

Prophet Otuocha is viewing this thread as I type but has chosen to be silent. Wale don silence am
@Karltom

STOPEET!

SonofElElyonRet:
Prophet Otuocha is viewing this thread as I type but has chosen to be silent. Wale don silence am
@Karltom

SonofElElyonRet:
Don't rule out the possibility of Dangote refinery Nigeria having shares in dangote refinery Kenya... Would be the patriotic thing for Dangote to do. Not necessarily majority shares

Thst is what will happen. It would be risky for him to allow the Kenya refinery to stand alone outside the control or management of Lekki

megawealth01:
You gerrit ba?

I honestly doubt if the big boiz are buying this IPO

I've been monitoring all activities around the IPO.... I notice na mainly low income earners, middle earners etc dey excited...I might be wrong sha

The big boys oversubscribed the PP already

What will you say of PETERICHY? I just dey pity them sha

SonofElElyonRet:
Prophet Otuocha is viewing this thread as I type but has chosen to be silent. Wale don silence am
@Karltom

Agba eh😂 🤣 😂

crownprince2017:
Oga nosa is almost at the village to meet peter as we are speaking.....
Had it been he no hoard that stock pick, he for see people join body to village now.

Adaje, adaku..

Na agba say make I talk am..

crownprince2017:
Oga nosa is almost at the village to meet peter as we are speaking.....
Had it been he no hoard that stock pick, he for see people join body to village now.

Adaje, adaku..

Na agba say make I talk am..

Agbalowomeri:
How person go accommodate and hoard illiquid stock based on one quarter result which may not be sustained

Let them start planning to announce their rights issue and we shall see how it goes.

I dey fear INDIANS wella. Those buying their stocks and Oando holders sabi pray sha

Make I just keep MUTE

nosa2:
Let them start planning to announce their rights issue and we shall see how it goes.

megawealth01:
Make I just keep MUTE

Explain oh!!!!

Yesterday, there was massive Sell-offs in Access Bank, GTCO, UBA, Zenith Bank, etc. What way is FUGAZ heading to? Up or down?🤔

Oasisblue:
This is bad news. Has Alhaji not met his expectations since?

There is probably renewed interest from East Africa and they have to devise new mechanisms to enable them invest because there was no retail platform for outsiders prior

mikeapollo:
People get carried by the 125billion share count.
Less than 4 billion of the shares will be available to retail investors. Alhaji and Institutional investors hold more than 96 percent (unless there is oversubscription and Alhaji decides to allot 100%).
And by the time Lekki capacity increases to 1.4m and the Kenya refinery coming on board as well......the price would definitely shoot up.

Kenyan refinery has nothing to do with the Lekki refinery. That would be a seperate listing.

NIGERIA STOCK MARKET FOLLOW UP REPORT- 12 OCT 2026
**WHICH BANK IS LIKELY TO BE THE FIRST TO BREACH THE INSIDERS CREDIT RULE!!!**

Today, a lot of banking sticks are in the losers list.

Why did the banking index fall!!!

TOP 20 LOSERS – 12 OCT 2026
RANK TICKER %CH CLOSE VALUE(M)
1 SUNUASSUR -9.85 2.93 0.598496
2 CMFC -9.78 3.23 10.964610
3 OANDO -7.55 33.65 2.167127
4 LIVINGTRUST -6.25 3.00 0.522389
5 ZICHIS -6.16 16.00 2.167779
6 UPL -6.00 4.70 0.955812
7 FTNCOCOA -5.15 7.55 3.092030
8 FTGINSURE -4.76 1.60 1.536555
9 ACCESSCORP -4.24 28.25 33.283797
10 ZENITHBANK -4.23 129.00 27.980069
11 INTBREW -3.55 9.50 1.681666
12 FIDELITYBK -2.62 20.45 14.581218
13 FIRSTHOLDCO -2.54 140.00 13.229129
14 INTENEGINS -2.33 2.10 9.763107
15 AFRIPRUD -1.92 10.20 0.887459
16 NSLTECH -1.41 0.70 7.813237
17 STERLINGNG -1.30 76.00 10.108588
18 JAIZBANK -1.27 7.75 27.605363
19 LINKASSURE -1.21 1.63 0.896393
20 UPDC -1.19 4.15 2.067189

The banks are falling, but they may recover soon. However, we should know which one has a more terrible headwind of insider related credits ahead, this category should be tactically avoided.

courage89:
Please, don’t compare Dangote IPO with the Initiate. Economics, IPO/PO marketing strategies and growth rationale differs.

1. The initiate (TIP’s) RI/PO priced at 7/9.50 Naira, priced way below market price (~13-14 Naira back then.) Compared to Dangote’s IPO priced at highest market price for Petrol, Jet Fuel, Diesel based on US/Iran war. I don’t think people ever speculated TIP would drop below 3 Naira.

2. Their marketing strategy differs. The Initiate raised money to fund expansion locally and across Africa (objective is the money), while Dangote is courting African Army to help defend its interests against pricing, government, competition and international propaganda (Objective is people).

3. Growth Rationale Differs. The initiate (TIP) is considered typical growth stocks when you factor their growth strategies; local expansion, African expansion, business diversification (waste to power) and others. Dangote Refinery on the other hand is considered a typical utility company, capped at 1.4 million barrels production with stable, consistent, predictable cf and dividends for the foreseeable future.

My criticism is with people who try to market Refining company, stable, predictable cash flow company, as a growth, 10 baggers company. Not going to happen.

I responded to one saying price of dangote refinery will drop to N100 simply because of an extension of IPO, you did not see anything with that and you are typing epistle.
Read what I typed carefully again.

Yesterday was brutal - Monday Oct 12, NGX lost *N407.3 billion* in one session, and it was led by FUGAZ.

- Access Holdings: *-4.24%*
- Zenith: *-4.23%*
- Fidelity -2.62%, FirstHoldCo -2.54%, UBA -0.81%
- Banking Index: 2,614 to 2,567 = *-1.81%* on the day.

The week before was same story - Banking Index *-3.93%* for the week, worst sector on NGX. Fidelity was worst at -10.64%, FirstHoldCo -4.27%.

*Why now? It's not panic, it's profit-taking.*

1. *Base is too high:* ASI is still up *59 to 61% YTD* even after the drop. Banking Index is still up ∼75% YTD. Everyone who bought in Dec 2025 is sitting on double digits. When Float-adjusted index (the liquid FUGAZ names) falls hardest, it means funds are locking gains.

2. *Dangote IPO vacuum:* Analysts flagged it early - people are raising cash for the Dangote Refinery IPO. That's why transaction value went UP 2% even as volume fell - big guys selling FUGAZ to free N160k minimum for IPO.

3. *Hype matured:* CBN recapitalisation rally + H1 earnings (GTCO did N603bn profit) already priced in. Now market wants Q3 earnings, not story.

*Where is FUGAZ heading?*

Short-term (this week): *Sideways to down*. ASI hit resistance around 252,500 and broke below 250k support. Expect choppy, breadth weak - last week 54 decliners vs 24 advancers. Don't try to catch falling knife.

Medium-term (Q4): *Bias up, but selective.* This is not a crash, it's rotation. Banks still have interim dividends coming (Jim Ovia set for N8.7bn from Zenith interim), recapitalisation still intact, and after Dangote IPO money settles, liquidity comes back to banks.

If you hold: don't panic sell into -4% days. If you want to buy: wait for stabilization above 247k ASI, buy in tranches - Zenith and GTCO first (strongest H1), then Access and UBA for higher beta.

FUGAZ isn't dying - it's just exhaling after a 60% sprint.

megawealth01:
What will you say of PETERICHY? I just dey pity them sha

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE