₦airaland Forum

chimex38:
Marketing is real
Hype isn't fading soon
Prospect is enticing.

Nairaland front page

Aliko Dangote said his refinery has generated “a bit over $5.5 billion” in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) through the third quarter (Q3) of 2026.

He also said it will most likely beat a full-year 2026 EBITDA projection of about $7.2 billion. These are the first figures to emerge for the third quarter, which the company has not yet published.

“I think we have done very well and we will do even better on the fourth quarter results,” Dangote told investors on Monday at the final roadshow for the refinery’s initial public offering, held in Port Harcourt, monitored by MoneyCentral. He addressed the event virtually.

“The share price at N525 is an extremely good price.”

First-half EBITDA was $2.60 billion, according to the IPO Prospectus. That implies third-quarter EBITDA of about $2.9 billion, more than the entire first half, MoneyCentral calculations show.

Hitting $7.2 billion would require only about $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

The nine-month figure already matches analysts’ full-year forecasts. CardinalStone expects 2026 EBITDA of $5.6 billion, and Chapel Hill Denham expects $5.7 billion. MoneyCentral estimates nine-month net profit at about $4.1 billion, above CardinalStone’s $3.8 billion full-year profit forecast.

Record fuel margins support the numbers. Diesel and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier in the third quarter EIA data shows. The refinery ran a record 736,470 barrels a day in August.

At the offer price, Dangote’s $7.2 billion target values the refinery at about 6.8 times EBITDA, on MoneyCentral calculations, down from about 9.4 times on first-half numbers.

The offer has been extended to October 27, on the need to give prospective buyers across Africa more time to access the share sale, and Dangote said subscriptions were “more than three or four times” the amount sought.

The figures provided by Dangote are unaudited comments made while marketing the share sale.

The implied third-quarter margin of about $54 a barrel is well above the prospectus guidance of $24.20 for 2026. Margins could also narrow quickly if the Iran war and the disruption to Russian fuel supply ease

*Lasaco Assurance - Agricultural Insurance Approval - Oct 13 2026*

Lasaco just got NAICOM approval to do agric insurance. Big move for them.

What they will now sell:

- Multi-Perils Crop Insurance
- Plantation Insurance
- Poultry, Fishery, Livestock, Cattle Insurance
- Farm Property & Produce Insurance

Why it matters:

1. *Revenue driver:* MD Ademoye Shobo said this will "substantially boost revenue" - agric is 25% of Nigeria GDP but insurance penetration is <1%. Government Anchor Borrowers, CBN recapitalization for insurers coming - first movers get advantage.

2. *Strategy:* Head of Strategy Adedayo Adetokun says it's about diversification. Lasaco was heavy on motor/general - agric is less cyclical and gets donor or government premium subsidies.

3. *Timing:* With floods, food inflation 30%+, farmers need cover. NAICOM is pushing Index-Based Agric Insurance. Lasaco already has footprint in SW - can partner with farmer co-ops, Lagos Food Systems.

*Stock angle:* Lasaco closed at N1.75 yesterday, a small cap insurance. This approval won't move profit this quarter, but next 2 quarters if they sign state governments (like Lagos, Oyo) for subsidized crop cover, premium income could double.

If you hold insurance stocks, watch for:

- Actual gross premium written from agric segment in Q4 2026 results
- Reinsurance backing (Swiss Re, Africa Re?) - agric is high risk
- Claims ratio after rainy season.

Full statement today, so official announcement on NGX, should drop this week.

SonofElElyonRet:
Nairaland front page

Aliko Dangote said his refinery has generated “a bit over $5.5 billion” in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) through the third quarter (Q3) of 2026.

He also said it will most likely beat a full-year 2026 EBITDA projection of about $7.2 billion. These are the first figures to emerge for the third quarter, which the company has not yet published.

“I think we have done very well and we will do even better on the fourth quarter results,” Dangote told investors on Monday at the final roadshow for the refinery’s initial public offering, held in Port Harcourt, monitored by MoneyCentral. He addressed the event virtually.

“The share price at N525 is an extremely good price.”

First-half EBITDA was $2.60 billion, according to the IPO Prospectus. That implies third-quarter EBITDA of about $2.9 billion, more than the entire first half, MoneyCentral calculations show.

Hitting $7.2 billion would require only about $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter.

The nine-month figure already matches analysts’ full-year forecasts. CardinalStone expects 2026 EBITDA of $5.6 billion, and Chapel Hill Denham expects $5.7 billion. MoneyCentral estimates nine-month net profit at about $4.1 billion, above CardinalStone’s $3.8 billion full-year profit forecast.

Record fuel margins support the numbers. Diesel and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier in the third quarter EIA data shows. The refinery ran a record 736,470 barrels a day in August.

At the offer price, Dangote’s $7.2 billion target values the refinery at about 6.8 times EBITDA, on MoneyCentral calculations, down from about 9.4 times on first-half numbers.

The offer has been extended to October 27, on the need to give prospective buyers across Africa more time to access the share sale, and Dangote said subscriptions were “more than three or four times” the amount sought.

The figures provided by Dangote are unaudited comments made while marketing the share sale.

The implied third-quarter margin of about $54 a barrel is well above the prospectus guidance of $24.20 for 2026. Margins could also narrow quickly if the Iran war and the disruption to Russian fuel supply ease

Alhaji may just want to prove a point with this refinery IPO.
He is rich enough to come back to NGX or use his proxies (after listing) to mop up and accumulate more shares, thereby jerking up the price to whatever level he desires.
Those interested should either buy the IPO or immediately after listing

Lasaco Assurance Plc has kept its *A(NG) Financial Strength Rating* from Global Credit Rating Co (GCR) for 2025/2026, stable outlook.

Key numbers from GCR affirmation:

- *Insurance revenue: N30.8bn in 2024, +35.2% YoY*
- Capital injection during the year strengthened risk-adjusted capital - they raised *N19.30bn from rights issue*
- Liquidity coverage improved
- Underwriting performance still pressured (claims high across industry)

MD Shobo: "validates hard work, but we're working to elevate rating through better underwriting".

This is classic insurance recapitalization playbook:
Raise capital -> get rating -> get new license classes -> write bigger premiums -> meet NAICOM N15bn (general) / N25bn (composite) recapitalization deadline.

Lasaco did rights issue, got N19.3bn, now qualifies to underwrite larger risks like Agric (which needs heavy capital for CAT risk).

Lasaco is following this path - strengthen balance sheet first, then product expansion.

Watch next: Q3 2026 results - does N30.8bn revenue translate to underwriting profit, or still loss? Rating says adequate, not strong.

no be only you waka come OOOOOO

Payunsin:
I saw NDIF IPO at N113.54 n just curious whether it's the same one trading at N162 on ngx. I even get mixed reaction to it cos I w don't want the shares to be diluted, I enjoyed the somewhat coded fantastic quarterly dividend.

essentialone1:
*Lasaco Assurance - Agricultural Insurance Approval - Oct 13 2026*

Lasaco just got NAICOM approval to do agric insurance. Big move for them.

What they will now sell:

- Multi-Perils Crop Insurance
- Plantation Insurance
- Poultry, Fishery, Livestock, Cattle Insurance
- Farm Property & Produce Insurance

Why it matters:

1. *Revenue driver:* MD Ademoye Shobo said this will "substantially boost revenue" - agric is 25% of Nigeria GDP but insurance penetration is <1%. Government Anchor Borrowers, CBN recapitalization for insurers coming - first movers get advantage.

2. *Strategy:* Head of Strategy Adedayo Adetokun says it's about diversification. Lasaco was heavy on motor/general - agric is less cyclical and gets donor or government premium subsidies.

3. *Timing:* With floods, food inflation 30%+, farmers need cover. NAICOM is pushing Index-Based Agric Insurance. Lasaco already has footprint in SW - can partner with farmer co-ops, Lagos Food Systems.

*Stock angle:* Lasaco closed at N1.75 yesterday, a small cap insurance. This approval won't move profit this quarter, but next 2 quarters if they sign state governments (like Lagos, Oyo) for subsidized crop cover, premium income could double.

If you hold insurance stocks, watch for:

- Actual gross premium written from agric segment in Q4 2026 results
- Reinsurance backing (Swiss Re, Africa Re?) - agric is high risk
- Claims ratio after rainy season.

Full statement today, so official announcement on NGX, should drop this week.

Hope he consulted with the chairman megawealth01

chimex38:
This shows the x3 to x4 is mostly tied to Institutional or HNI.
The shareholders spread is still very thin.

#Speculation
The OS despite being 120bn units and 4bn infree float, might definitely be very scarce upon listing and beyond.
Tilting towards driving up it's share prices.

👍👍👍

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/48071_REGENCY_ALLIANCE_INSURANCE_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_-__ANNUAL_GENERAL_MEETING_(AGM)_OCTOBER_2026.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/48073_REGENCY_ALLIANCE_INSURANCE_PLC-_NOTICES_OF_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_-_NOTICE_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_OCTOBER_2026.pdf

mikeapollo:
Thank you so much.
They demolished businesses and houses in some states for the coastal road. Now, they have abandoned the route.
Can you imagine? Is this not tantamount to confusion, negligence, incompetence etc?

I was a victim. I had a wine shop which was earning 7 figures monthly at one of the beach there.Wicked people

popoolaRofiat:
I was a victim. I had a wine shop which was earning 7 figures monthly at one of the beach there.Wicked people

Wow! Sorry.
May God replenish your purse and empower you for bigger success
Heartless people doing things without proper consultation and engagement

Here is a snapshot of trading so far today on the NGX.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItsNmFCShPU

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0DEe6F7jeNkzjQPU4EnHxN?si=Qhawo7IIT3m43cV7u_APiw

And una go still come out say na “OUR GOVERNMENT” be this, abi? 😂

But what exactly is GOVERNANCE without direction?

Leadership without a clear vision, purpose, and strategic plan is nothing but a journey without a destination.

I’m just holding myself from speaking oooooo! 🤐🤣

mikeapollo:
Wow! Sorry.
May God replenish your purse and empower you for bigger success
Heartless people doing things without proper consultation and engagement

Take heart... Greater days lie ahead!

popoolaRofiat:
I was a victim. I had a wine shop which was earning 7 figures monthly at one of the beach there.Wicked people

Regency Alliance Insurance Plc

Fear dey catch me...

KarlTom:
Read somewhere that the offer is already 3x oversubscribed...

https://punchng.com/dangote-refinery-ipo-attracts-fourfold-subscriptions-offer-extended/

To set job for naija is very easy.So why extend the closing date.
So alhaji is now looking for more funds to return. Make they do list and let see the magic the shares will perform in a failed economy/government....@ 300 as said by Emma is possible

*Fidelity 38th AGM (Virtual, Oct 9, 2026) — Key takeaways:*

*Asset quality cleanup:*
- *NPL ratio: 3.1% → 2.4%* — now one of the cleanest in Tier-1 and Tier-2. CBN threshold is 5%, so they have huge buffer.
- *Loan-loss coverage: 138.40% → 203.90%* — meaning for every N1 of bad loan, they have N2.03 set aside. Very conservative.
- *Liquidity ratio: 66.50%* vs regulatory minimum 30.00%

*Capital — above CBN finish line:*
- Eligible capital: *N305.5bn → N532.6bn* after *N227.05bn private placement completed Dec 2025*.
- That puts them *above N500bn minimum for International banks* in the ongoing recapitalization. No need to run around for public offer like some peers.
- Total equity: N897.9bn → N1.09tn
- *CAR: ∼16.1%* — above 15% required for international banks.

*2025 FY Earnings:*
- Gross earnings: *N1.04tn → N1.52tn (+45.6%)*
- PBT: *N347.7bn*, PAT: *N242.4bn*
- Customer base: 16 million.

*Why this matters:*

1. *Insider rule fear is selective:* Fidelity is showing it can provision 203.00% and still report N242bn profit. Banks that _can't_ do that are the ones market is punishing. Fidelity is gaining credibility.

2. *Recap winners are emerging:* GTCO, Zenith, UBA, and now Fidelity are clearly above N500bn.

3. *Shareholder sentiment:* At AGM, Bisi Bakare (Pragmatic Shareholders) and Boniface Okezie (Progressive Shareholders) both used NPL 2.4% + CAR 16.1% to back management — but also warned board to sustain returns.

Fidelity is now objectively strong on asset quality. They have better NPL and capital cushion, and still pays dividend.

megawealth01:
Fear dey catch me...

Fear dey catch you because of activist comment?

This fellow is one of the cheapest to buy in the political/activism/SM space...

Take him [and his words] with a pinch of salt

megawealth01:
Fear dey catch me...

No update from Universal Insurance after the September 16 Court session, not even the court report...hmmm

megawealth01:
Fear dey catch me...

Something must kill a man. It is risky not to take risk.



Head you win, tail you lose.

Regency Alliance Insurance Plc

ACCESS shareholders doing another round of gbelogbebo

megawealth01:
Fear dey catch me...

Which fear dey catch you again? No be you alone survive Unity Bank, Lasaco, and Oando?
Wetin dey there again? Abeg

We dey kampke. No shaking. Interim dividend loading

Agbalowomeri:
ACCESS shareholders doing another round of gbelogbebo

mikeapollo:
Which fear dey catch you again? No be you alone survive Unity Bank, Lasaco, and Oando?
Wetin dey there again? Abeg

He is yet to survive Lasaco

The thing still tie his neck down

Agbalowomeri:
ACCESS shareholders doing another round of gbelogbebo

*eTranzact — Control change summary:*

- *Buyer:* Trademarks Global Concepts Limited acquired *5,168,921,170 shares = 56.18% controlling stake*.
- *Sellers:* Access Bank Plc, Meristem Trustees Limited (as Trustee for Accelerex Holdings), and eTranzact Global Limited. Access Bank and Accelerex have fully exited.
- *Board reshaped:* Directors representing exiting shareholders resigned, along with two Independent Non-Executive Directors.
- *New appointees (CBN approved):*
- Non-Executive Directors: Akinwunmi Akinfemiwa, Olatunde Akande, Doron Grupper
- Independent Non-Executive Directors: Omobola Hollist, Mustapha Ajenifuja, SAN.

- *Background:*
- eTranzact revenue H1 2026: N16.28bn (+22.6%).
- Access Bank had built stake from 23.80% in 2021 to 37.56% by Dec 2022 (N12.1bn investment), now fully exited. This is a full exit from a domestic associate, unlike the Ghana subsidiary sale in July 2026 where Access reduced from 93.40% to 85.96% but retained control.
- Trading clue: 5.1bn shares traded in March 2026, close to the 5.17bn now disclosed as transferred — indicates deal was negotiated for months.
- Founded 2003 by Valentine Obi, pioneer mobile or electronic payments switch.

- *Notable new director:* Akin Akinfemiwa — also NED at First Bank of Nigeria, ex-MD/CEO of Geregu Power and ex-GCEO of Forte Oil (now Ardova).

Company is now updating records with CAC.

I should pat him on the head for posting the lies he posted? It is his responsibility to ensure he was posting the right information.
I was first to commend his posts until I started noticing that the data did not align at all.
And when he reported dividend yield of 0.00 for my Accesscorp, I knew he didnt know what he was posting.
We are talking about the heart beat of many people.
Instead he ought to post an apology.

ghm:
You guys are supposed to just highlight the issue with the analysis—with a good attitude—or share your corrected versions. He will take a look and update it.

I remember when I posted some calculations and omitted a key item that could have drastically affected my result. Some very senior and knowledgeable people here pointed it out. But the manner of humility and respect they did it with made me redo the calculations and repost.

@Essentialone1, please don't be discouraged. I enjoy the post and look forward to more.

Pete002:
No update from Universal Insurance after the September 16 Court session, not even the court report...hmmm

No news

*FTN Cocoa Processors Plc — 2025 FY (year ended Dec 31, 2025) — Financial breakdown:*

*Top line vs cost problem:*
- Revenue: *N1.38bn (2024) → N5.65bn (2025) = +309.5%*
- Cost of sales: *N536.59m → N6.33bn* — surged ∼11.8x
- *Gross loss: N685.92m* vs gross profit N839.22m in 2024. Cost of sales exceeded revenue by 12.1% — negative gross margin.

*Operating side:*
- Selling & distribution: N17.42m → N116.58m
- Operating expenses: N409.56m → N847.92m
- Impairment loss: N14.09m
- Other operating income: N124.89m
- *FX swing saved the year:* Exchange gain *N1.84bn* in 2025 vs *loss N11.68bn* in 2024.
- *Operating profit: N304.72m* vs operating loss N10.31bn in 2024.

*Bottom line still negative:*
- Finance costs: *N578.12m* > operating profit
- Loss before tax: *N273.4m* vs N10.62bn loss in 2024 — 97% reduction in loss
- Loss after tax: *N273.4m* vs N9.53bn
- Loss per share: *N2.44 → N0.07*

*Balance sheet pressure:*
- Total liabilities: *N17.65bn → N23.71bn*
- Non-current borrowings: *N17.15bn → N23.21bn*
- Current liabilities: N496.65m → N501.34m
- Total assets: N21.09bn → N24.14bn
- Non-current assets (PPE): N17.36bn → N16.62bn (decline)
- Current assets: N3.73bn → N7.52bn

*Takeaway:* Massive revenue recovery and FX turnaround narrowed losses sharply, but core operations remain unprofitable — selling N5.65bn of cocoa but spending N6.33bn to produce it. Rising long-term debt at N23.21bn remains the key risk until they can convert sales to positive gross profit.