₦airaland Forum

A few stocks on my radar in today's trading session

https://youtube.com/live/43Gj_HQYtnI?feature=share

This is the clearest warning sign yet, for Tier-1 banks.

*The headline numbers - H1 2026:*

- *OPay:* Revenue +136.50% to $467.1m (N623.8bn), Pretax +276.00% to $134.5m, Net +318.00% to $90.9m
- *Zenith:* Gross earnings -24.60% to N1.899trn, Net income -19.00% to N430.7bn (tax hit)
- *GTCO:* Gross +3.20% to ~N1.1trn, PBT +0.40% to N603bn, PAT -7.70% to N414.2bn, Fee income -9.00% to N123bn, Loan book flat at N3.14trn

OPay is now ∼33.00% of Zenith's revenue and ∼28.00% of its profit, from almost zero, just 4 years ago. 89.50% of OPay's revenue, is still from Nigeria.

*Where OPay is actually winning:*

1. *Distribution:* 50.1m MAU, 26.8m DAU (July 31), tripled since Q1 2024. 90.1bn transactions worth $558bn LTM. 800k POS terminals + agents vs 5 bank branches per 100k people in Africa.
2. *Lending pivot:* This is the real threat. New loans originated in H1 tripled to $927.6m (N1.24trn), 6.7m borrowers in Q2 (7x vs early 2024). Loan income $236.1m (+168.00%) is now its biggest revenue line. Outstanding $324.9m is still only 3.60% of Zenith's book and 14.00% of GTCO's, but growing 204.00%.
3. *Deposits:* 42m+ users with savings, $978.9m balances (N1.31trn) — NDIC insured, interest-bearing. That's cheap deposits, that banks are losing.

*Why GTCO's -9.00% fee income matters:*
OPay's transaction revenue +87.00% to $130.6m, while GTCO's fee income fell. Banks live on fees + cheap retail deposits. If salary, transfers, and savings sit in OPay first, banks lose the data, and the float.

Zenith's defense is working better — fee income +40.00% on digital, NIM widened to 12.40%. So Tier-1s can compete, but not with branch-led model.

*OPay's own risk is flagged in its October 9 NYSE prospectus:*
- Credit loss provisions = 25.00% of revenue (high-risk 100-day loans).
- Regulatory risk of rate caps
- FX trap: limits moving dollars out of Nigeria could block dividends to foreign shareholders

Bottom line:

It's not size, it's velocity. OPay has 66.10% of active users, across finance apps, in Nigeria. Banks still dwarf it, but the daily habit, has flipped to fintech.

“Dangote is a Seplat in the waiting” — not as a guarantee of price appreciation, but as a thesis around strategic importance, earnings potential, visibility and the possibility of sustained institutional interest.

I actually agree with the argument that Dangote may be trying to prove a point with this IPO, especially considering what is coming next.

Think about it strategically.

If this listing performs poorly, the attention around the company and, by extension, future listings will naturally reduce. But if this IPO comes out strong, gets oversubscribed, lists well and continues to attract buying interest after listing, it creates a completely different narrative.

And that is where I think Dangote could potentially become Nigeria’s next Seplat-type story.

Not because they are the same business — they are obviously not — but because Seplat showed what can happen when a strategically important Nigerian company combines strong fundamentals, institutional interest, growing earnings and increasing market visibility.

Dangote is sitting on something even bigger from a market-importance perspective.

You have the refinery, petrochemicals, fertiliser, cement and potentially several other businesses feeding into the broader ecosystem. If these businesses continue translating into stronger earnings and the group keeps unlocking value through listings, you could gradually see Dangote becoming a much bigger story on the NGX.

And let's be honest: the IPO itself is only the beginning.

That's why I'm beginning to look at Dangote as a Seplat in the waiting — a company that could potentially become one of those stocks people look back at and say: "Why didn't I buy this thing when everybody was still arguing about it?"😂

I was initially very sceptical about entering the IPO. But after looking at the bigger picture and the optics around the listing, I've changed my mind.

Obviously, nothing is guaranteed. IPOs can disappoint, stocks can fall after listing, and hype is not the same thing as fundamentals.

But from a risk/reward and market-psychology perspective, I can now understand why some people are looking at this IPO differently.

Dangote may not just be another IPO. It could be the beginning of another major NGX story.

And if fertiliser, petrochemicals and the other businesses eventually start getting valued separately?

Omo… na then the real movie fit start. 😂📈

Stockhunter:
I agree to proving a point especially as he plans to list the fertiliser shortly after this. Its a no brainer. Cos if he allows this to flop no one will pay attention to him so much during the fertiliser listing. So expect pumping post listing. Make una enter this IPO. I was sceptical initially but looking at the optics i changed my mind.. na so i take talk make una enter Ngxgroup last year at 60 even before the refinery IPO.

PS: if Alhaji wants everywhere to burst he should hold on with the listing until after Jaunuary elections make the pumping ride with the year end results rally. I suspect that is part of the reasons for the 2 weeks extention in addition to the Q3 results.

essentialone1:
This is the clearest warning sign yet, for Tier-1 banks.

*The headline numbers - H1 2026:*

- *OPay:* Revenue +136.50% to $467.1m (N623.8bn), Pretax +276.00% to $134.5m, Net +318.00% to $90.9m
- *Zenith:* Gross earnings -24.60% to N1.899trn, Net income -19.00% to N430.7bn (tax hit)
- *GTCO:* Gross +3.20% to ~N1.1trn, PBT +0.40% to N603bn, PAT -7.70% to N414.2bn, Fee income -9.00% to N123bn, Loan book flat at N3.14trn

OPay is now ∼33.00% of Zenith's revenue and ∼28.00% of its profit, from almost zero, just 4 years ago. 89.50% of OPay's revenue, is still from Nigeria.

*Where OPay is actually winning:*

1. *Distribution:* 50.1m MAU, 26.8m DAU (July 31), tripled since Q1 2024. 90.1bn transactions worth $558bn LTM. 800k POS terminals + agents vs 5 bank branches per 100k people in Africa.
2. *Lending pivot:* This is the real threat. New loans originated in H1 tripled to $927.6m (N1.24trn), 6.7m borrowers in Q2 (7x vs early 2024). Loan income $236.1m (+168.00%) is now its biggest revenue line. Outstanding $324.9m is still only 3.60% of Zenith's book and 14.00% of GTCO's, but growing 204.00%.
3. *Deposits:* 42m+ users with savings, $978.9m balances (N1.31trn) — NDIC insured, interest-bearing. That's cheap deposits, that banks are losing.

*Why GTCO's -9.00% fee income matters:*
OPay's transaction revenue +87.00% to $130.6m, while GTCO's fee income fell. Banks live on fees + cheap retail deposits. If salary, transfers, and savings sit in OPay first, banks lose the data, and the float.

Zenith's defense is working better — fee income +40.00% on digital, NIM widened to 12.40%. So Tier-1s can compete, but not with branch-led model.

*OPay's own risk is flagged in its October 9 NYSE prospectus:*
- Credit loss provisions = 25.00% of revenue (high-risk 100-day loans).
- Regulatory risk of rate caps
- FX trap: limits moving dollars out of Nigeria could block dividends to foreign shareholders

Bottom line:

It's not size, it's velocity. OPay has 66.10% of active users, across finance apps, in Nigeria. Banks still dwarf it, but the daily habit, has flipped to fintech.

Their listing is for next year if I’m not mistaken

Ding

For those who listened to Loco.
Enjoy

Una wan compare DANGOTE REFINERY vs SEPLAT ok na...

Abeg what's their OS again?

Empowerment

SonofElElyonRet:
https://dailytrust.com/gov-buni-approves-purchase-of-dangote-refinery-shares-for-43928-yobe-women/

No be cho cho cho.
E go happen for our korokoro eyes here when Q3 result is announced.

Abeg. Can a savings account go dormant? I received a txt message from GTBank that my savings account has gone dormant because there was no transaction in the last couple of months. 😭

@stockpromoter
Thank you Loco trader...I boarded Austin Laz and Guinea Insurance when you made the call.

essentialone1:
This is the clearest warning sign yet, for Tier-1 banks.

*The headline numbers - H1 2026:*

- *OPay:* Revenue +136.50% to $467.1m (N623.8bn), Pretax +276.00% to $134.5m, Net +318.00% to $90.9m
- *Zenith:* Gross earnings -24.60% to N1.899trn, Net income -19.00% to N430.7bn (tax hit)
- *GTCO:* Gross +3.20% to ~N1.1trn, PBT +0.40% to N603bn, PAT -7.70% to N414.2bn, Fee income -9.00% to N123bn, Loan book flat at N3.14trn

OPay is now ∼33.00% of Zenith's revenue and ∼28.00% of its profit, from almost zero, just 4 years ago. 89.50% of OPay's revenue, is still from Nigeria.

*Where OPay is actually winning:*

1. *Distribution:* 50.1m MAU, 26.8m DAU (July 31), tripled since Q1 2024. 90.1bn transactions worth $558bn LTM. 800k POS terminals + agents vs 5 bank branches per 100k people in Africa.
2. *Lending pivot:* This is the real threat. New loans originated in H1 tripled to $927.6m (N1.24trn), 6.7m borrowers in Q2 (7x vs early 2024). Loan income $236.1m (+168.00%) is now its biggest revenue line. Outstanding $324.9m is still only 3.60% of Zenith's book and 14.00% of GTCO's, but growing 204.00%.
3. *Deposits:* 42m+ users with savings, $978.9m balances (N1.31trn) — NDIC insured, interest-bearing. That's cheap deposits, that banks are losing.

*Why GTCO's -9.00% fee income matters:*
OPay's transaction revenue +87.00% to $130.6m, while GTCO's fee income fell. Banks live on fees + cheap retail deposits. If salary, transfers, and savings sit in OPay first, banks lose the data, and the float.

Zenith's defense is working better — fee income +40.00% on digital, NIM widened to 12.40%. So Tier-1s can compete, but not with branch-led model.

*OPay's own risk is flagged in its October 9 NYSE prospectus:*
- Credit loss provisions = 25.00% of revenue (high-risk 100-day loans).
- Regulatory risk of rate caps
- FX trap: limits moving dollars out of Nigeria could block dividends to foreign shareholders

Bottom line:

It's not size, it's velocity. OPay has 66.10% of active users, across finance apps, in Nigeria. Banks still dwarf it, but the daily habit, has flipped to fintech.

Customers will always reward efficiency with patronage!

Opay is another word for efficiency.
Don't forget a Chinese guy is the brain behind Opay;and the Chinese are known for efficiency all over the world.

95 percent of the Nigerian banks don't know the meaning of efficiency.

Most workers in the Nigerian banks even use Opay because of its great efficiency.

Meerahbel:
“Dangote is a Seplat in the waiting” — not as a guarantee of price appreciation, but as a thesis around strategic importance, earnings potential, visibility and the possibility of sustained institutional interest.

I actually agree with the argument that Dangote may be trying to prove a point with this IPO, especially considering what is coming next.

Think about it strategically.

If this listing performs poorly, the attention around the company and, by extension, future listings will naturally reduce. But if this IPO comes out strong, gets oversubscribed, lists well and continues to attract buying interest after listing, it creates a completely different narrative.

And that is where I think Dangote could potentially become Nigeria’s next Seplat-type story.

Not because they are the same business — they are obviously not — but because Seplat showed what can happen when a strategically important Nigerian company combines strong fundamentals, institutional interest, growing earnings and increasing market visibility.

Dangote is sitting on something even bigger from a market-importance perspective.

You have the refinery, petrochemicals, fertiliser, cement and potentially several other businesses feeding into the broader ecosystem. If these businesses continue translating into stronger earnings and the group keeps unlocking value through listings, you could gradually see Dangote becoming a much bigger story on the NGX.

And let's be honest: the IPO itself is only the beginning.

That's why I'm beginning to look at Dangote as a Seplat in the waiting — a company that could potentially become one of those stocks people look back at and say: "Why didn't I buy this thing when everybody was still arguing about it?"😂

I was initially very sceptical about entering the IPO. But after looking at the bigger picture and the optics around the listing, I've changed my mind.

Obviously, nothing is guaranteed. IPOs can disappoint, stocks can fall after listing, and hype is not the same thing as fundamentals.

But from a risk/reward and market-psychology perspective, I can now understand why some people are looking at this IPO differently.

Dangote may not just be another IPO. It could be the beginning of another major NGX story.

And if fertiliser, petrochemicals and the other businesses eventually start getting valued separately?

Omo… na then the real movie fit start. 😂📈

Dangote Refinery is a mini Nigerian economy!

It is going to be a 10 bagger company in 4 to 5 year.😁

Most bank staffs in Nigeria use Opay or PalmPay account for personal transfers, even while working at GTB, First Bank, Access Bank, Zenith Bank, and UBA Bank.

Why?:

- *Speed:* Opay was built mobile-first, instant settlement even on weekends. Traditional bank USSD or apps still go through NIP switches that can lag or fail during peak, especially around salary week.
- *Cost:* Free or cheap transfers vs N10 to N25 bank charges — staff feel it too.
- *Reliability for small tickets:* For N5k to N100k to vendors, family, that instant notification matters more than a bank's full suite.

It's not that banks are unaware — CBN licensed Opay as an MMO, and banks earn float anyway. But it shows the gap: legacy core banking vs fintech UX. The irony is banks now push their own fintech arms (GTB's Squad, Access's Hydrogen) to compete with the same efficiency.

Raider76:
Abeg. Can a savings account go dormant? I received a txt message from GTBank that my savings account has gone dormant because there was no transaction in the last couple of months. 😭

Any account can go dormant.

Imagine traveling to US with a savings account no operated since the end of the civil war!

In Nigeria:

- *Inactive:* No customer-initiated transaction (withdrawal, transfer, deposit, USSD, app) for *6 months*. The bank will send you that warning text.
- *Dormant:* No activity for *12 months*. Then restrictions kick in — you can't withdraw or transfer until you reactivate. CBN then moves balances after 10 years to unclaimed funds, but that's far away.

Banks count only transactions YOU do, not charges or interest.

*How to reactivate now (pick one):*

1. *Do a transaction today:* Transfer N100 from GTB app to another bank, or use *737#, or deposit cash. That alone often flips it back from inactive.
2. *If it already says dormant:* Go to app > Account > Reactivate, or visit any GTB branch with valid ID + BVN. No fee.
3. For full dormancy over 12 months, GTB will ask for ID and to fill a dormancy reactivation form — usually same day.

To avoid next time, set a small monthly auto-transfer of N500 to your other account.

Weldone sir Loco. What what of Vfdgroup sir.What should we be expecting Sir.?

Raider76:
Abeg. Can a savings account go dormant? I received a txt message from GTBank that my savings account has gone dormant because there was no transaction in the last couple of months. 😭

Were they not crediting the monthly interest earned on the balance to the account 🤔

essentialone1:
In Nigeria:

- *Inactive:* No customer-initiated transaction (withdrawal, transfer, deposit, USSD, app) for *6 months*. The bank will send you that warning text.
- *Dormant:* No activity for *12 months*. Then restrictions kick in — you can't withdraw or transfer until you reactivate. CBN then moves balances after 10 years to unclaimed funds, but that's far away.

Banks count only transactions YOU do, not charges or interest.

*How to reactivate now (pick one):*

1. *Do a transaction today:* Transfer N100 from GTB app to another bank, or use *737#, or deposit cash. That alone often flips it back from inactive.
2. *If it already says dormant:* Go to app > Account > Reactivate, or visit any GTB branch with valid ID + BVN. No fee.
3. For full dormancy over 12 months, GTB will ask for ID and to fill a dormancy reactivation form — usually same day.

To avoid next time, set a small monthly auto-transfer of N500 to your other account.

What aspects of the CBN rules prescribed this?

EDUECO:
Dangote Refinery is a mini Nigerian economy!

It is going to be a 10 bagger company in 4 to 5 year.😁

Wow!
Long time no see. Welcome back
Access is still Access oooo!
I hope we'll ''access'' the jackpot soonest because yours truly is with you in this. You are not alone.

Welcome back once again. and wish you all the best.

NGX is truly crazy and can humble all of us!

That's the *CBN Guidelines on Management of Dormant Accounts, Unclaimed Balances and Other Financial Assets* — latest version July 19, 2024. It updated the 2015 version.

GTB is quoting it directly:

*1. Classification*
- *Inactive:* No customer-initiated transaction for *6 to 12 months*
- *Dormant:* Remains inactive for *1 year or more* after last customer transaction
- Applies to *all account types:* current, savings, term deposits, domiciliary, prepaid cards or wallets, shares deposits.

Customer-initiated means YOU do transfer, deposit, withdrawal, USSD. Bank charges, interest, COT don't count.

*2. Bank must notify you*
CBN mandates banks to *notify you when account becomes inactive and give quarterly updates after* — that's the SMS you got. They must also notify 6 months before classifying as dormant.

*3. What bank cannot do*
- Banks are *banned from converting dormant balances to income*. It must stay as deposit liability until you claim it.

*4. After 10 years — Unclaimed*
If dormant for *10 years* with no claim, balance is transferred to CBN's *Unclaimed Balances Trust Fund (UBTF) Pool Account* and invested in T-Bills. You can still reclaim it — bank verifies and CBN refunds principal + interest within 10 working days.

*5. Exemptions*
Accounts under litigation, investigation, or used as collateral or lien are NOT classified dormant.

So your account just hit the 6-month inactive trigger — one small transaction today will reset the clock.

Thanks. I transfer some amount.

essentialone1:
That's the *CBN Guidelines on Management of Dormant Accounts, Unclaimed Balances and Other Financial Assets* — latest version July 19, 2024. It updated the 2015 version.

GTB is quoting it directly:

*1. Classification*
- *Inactive:* No customer-initiated transaction for *6 to 12 months*
- *Dormant:* Remains inactive for *1 year or more* after last customer transaction
- Applies to *all account types:* current, savings, term deposits, domiciliary, prepaid cards or wallets, shares deposits.

Customer-initiated means YOU do transfer, deposit, withdrawal, USSD. Bank charges, interest, COT don't count.

*2. Bank must notify you*
CBN mandates banks to *notify you when account becomes inactive and give quarterly updates after* — that's the SMS you got. They must also notify 6 months before classifying as dormant.

*3. What bank cannot do*
- Banks are *banned from converting dormant balances to income*. It must stay as deposit liability until you claim it.

*4. After 10 years — Unclaimed*
If dormant for *10 years* with no claim, balance is transferred to CBN's *Unclaimed Balances Trust Fund (UBTF) Pool Account* and invested in T-Bills. You can still reclaim it — bank verifies and CBN refunds principal + interest within 10 working days.

*5. Exemptions*
Accounts under litigation, investigation, or used as collateral or lien are NOT classified dormant.

So your account just hit the 6-month inactive trigger — one small transaction today will reset the clock.

Image what this country must have lost through the corruption, steeling and eventual grounding of the nation's refineries. The DR has really exposed a lot of what happened and is still happening in the Nation's petroleum sector.

EDUECO:
Dangote Refinery is a mini Nigerian economy!

It is going to be a 10 bagger company in 4 to 5 year.😁

Raider76:
Image what this country must have lost through the corruption, steeling and eventual grounding of the nation's refineries. The DR has really exposed a lot of what happened and is still happening in the Nation's petroleum sector.

Exactly!
And you can see that is why they are still frustrating the refinery by granting and issuing fuel import permits to their cronies.
If the fear is about potential monopoly, then the FG should sit down with DR and agree on the pricing mechanism/template based on local supply of crude in naira. This would ensure that DR cannot increase the price arbitrarily.
But as long as DR is still importing significant chunk of their crude oil, they would have the leverage to determine their price.

MANDATE standing/sleeping/sitting or no MANDATE?

mikeapollo:
Additional 18m People Affected As Nigeria Records World's Highest Rise in Poverty - UNDP

https://www.nairaland.com/8765536/17.9m-affected-nigeria-records-worlds

@ the bolded
I think it's now 3months and 6months respectively

essentialone1:
In Nigeria:

- *Inactive:* No customer-initiated transaction (withdrawal, transfer, deposit, USSD, app) for *6 months*. The bank will send you that warning text.
- *Dormant:* No activity for *12 months*. Then restrictions kick in — you can't withdraw or transfer until you reactivate. CBN then moves balances after 10 years to unclaimed funds, but that's far away.

Banks count only transactions YOU do, not charges or interest.

*How to reactivate now (pick one):*

1. *Do a transaction today:* Transfer N100 from GTB app to another bank, or use *737#, or deposit cash. That alone often flips it back from inactive.
2. *If it already says dormant:* Go to app > Account > Reactivate, or visit any GTB branch with valid ID + BVN. No fee.
3. For full dormancy over 12 months, GTB will ask for ID and to fill a dormancy reactivation form — usually same day.

To avoid next time, set a small monthly auto-transfer of N500 to your other account.

🚨🔥 INTENEGINS BUY-SIDE WATCH — PRICE NOW ₦2.09! 🚀

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE PLC

📍 Current price: ₦2.09
📉 52-week high: ₦9.64
🟢 Key support: ₦2.00–₦2.10
🎯 Immediate level to watch: ₦2.10

🔥 THE ₦2.10 BATTLE IS ON!

INTENEGINS is approaching a critical resistance level. If genuine buying demand absorbs the available sell offers around ₦2.10 and sustains the price above it, the next levels to watch are:

🎯 ₦2.15 — Initial momentum test
🎯 ₦2.20–₦2.25 — Recovery zone
🚀 ₦2.30–₦2.40 — Stronger breakout test

💥 CATALYSTS TO WATCH

- Recapitalisation completed, with approximately ₦25.84 billion reportedly raised.
- Public-offer price of ₦3.20 per share.
- Q3 earnings could attract renewed interest if actual results confirm improved profitability.
- A potential technical recovery from the battered price level.

📢 THE LOCO WATCH: Watch actual transactions, buying volume and whether the ₦2.10 offers are genuinely absorbed. A sustained move above ₦2.10 would be an encouraging early signal, not proof of a breakout.

Can INTENEGINS reclaim higher ground? Keep it on your radar! 🔥

popoolaRofiat:
Weldone sir Loco. What what of Vfdgroup sir.What should we be expecting Sir.?

Hold.
Vfd was sighted by Loco at 10 but excess free float is affecting its Northern journey.

Avacap will deliver faster than VFD.
Since you have it,hold.Q3 result will be excellent and can move it to 15+++

essentialone1:
FTSE Russell anticipated stock rally. Much Ado about nothing...

The rally will still happen.

The timing is the issue.

When? I don't know.

But I know we will see a rally.

Cheers

Iskalamong

.

.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNnaAQZ-cOA

Here's a snapshot of trading so far today on the NGX