₦airaland Forum

ghm:
Good. Thank you.

You are right to ask. The problem is real. But fuel subsidy is not the solution.

On public transport:
You are correct that Nigeria lacks efficient public transport. But that is an argument for building it, not for fuel subsidy. And it is already happening.

CNG buses have cut fares by up to 83% in Borno, 60% in Oyo and Plateau, 50% in Adamawa and Abia, 40% in Enugu and FCT. A Lagos–Ibadan trip that cost N8,000 now costs N3,200.

Is it nationwide? No. Kwara has 19 buses. Niger has 200 parked for lack of refuelling centres. But CNG stations have grown from under 10 in 2023 to over 90 today. Execution is imperfect. Direction is right.

The IMF's recommendation is exactly this: subsidise bus fares, not fuel prices. That is what CNG does—it cuts transport costs for commuters, not fuel costs for everyone.

On producers' power costs:
You are right that power is unreliable. But that is why solar is now viable. Small-scale solar costs N85–140 per kWh, below the Band A grid tariff of N225–270 per kWh.

The World Bank is supporting off-grid and renewable solutions—mini-grids and standalone solar for unconnected communities. The NDPHC is developing dedicated solar for industrial clusters to reduce diesel dependence.

The answer to unreliable power is not subsidising the diesel burned in generators. It is building the alternatives that make generators unnecessary.

On fuel as the common commodity:
Yes, transport and power both use fuel. That is exactly why fuel subsidy is the wrong tool. Subsidising fuel subsidises consumption—and the biggest consumers are the rich. The IMF's data is clear: 83% of gasoline subsidy benefits go to the richest 40%, and the richest 20% capture six times more than the poorest 20%.

The poor benefit most not from cheap fuel, but from cheap transport and cheap power. Subsidise those directly.

The fiscal reality:
Subsidy savings from June 2023 to December 2025 were N15.8 trillion. If that money returns to fuel subsidy, it disappears into the pump and benefits the rich most. If it goes into CNG buses, solar mini-grids, and targeted cash transfers, it reaches the people who need it.

You are right that Nigeria lacks efficient public transport and reliable power. But you do not fix that by subsidising the fuel a broken system burns. You fix it by building the alternative—and the government is already doing that, imperfectly but directionally.

mikeapollo:
Okay, clap for govt for the [/b]less than 200,000 CNG buses they have converted in 3 years[b], and use that as basis to justify removal of fuel subsidy.
No wonder, you are still quoting and glorifying biased figures and policies of IMF, who only propagate policies that make African countries poor and Western countries rich! Yet, the same IMF does not criticize any form of subsidies in Europe or America.
Keep on talking about Solar power, which is less than 0.5% in penetration.
Keep the fantasies on. Anything to make the govt look and feel great.

I am outta here

ayobama1:
Does it mean private companies/individuals are not allowed to carry out CNG conversion or the public don't have a buy in yet?

mikeapollo:
Okay, clap for govt for the less than 200,000 CNG buses they have converted in 3 years, and use that as basis to justify removal of fuel subsidy.
No wonder, you are still quoting and glorifying biased figures and policies of IMF, who only propagate policies that make African countries poor and Western countries rich! Yet, the same IMF does not criticize any form of subsidies in Europe or America.
Keep on talking about Solar power, which is less than 0.5% in penetration.
Keep the fantasies on. Anything to make the govt look and feel great.

I am outta here

chimex38:
₦26million and below worth of shares are almost guaranteed to get all alloted shares.

https://leadership.ng/dangote-pledges-priority-allocation-for-n50000-below-investors-in-refinery-ipo/

SonofElElyonRet:
That'll be nice. How did you reach that conclusion though?

chimex38:
₦26million and below worth of shares are almost guaranteed to get all alloted shares.

https://leadership.ng/dangote-pledges-priority-allocation-for-n50000-below-investors-in-refinery-ipo/

chimex38:
50,000units X ₦525

mikeapollo:
It is for N50,000, and not 50,000 units

mikeapollo:
I think it is those who apply for 100 shares (i e N52,500), and below.
I may be wrong though.

SonofElElyonRet:
Get ready guys... Might be sooner than you think

https://businessday.ng/news/article/nnpc-advances-ipo-plans-moves-to-close-governance-gaps/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAcGRvZgNzcnRjBmFwcF9pZA8yNzUyNTQ2OTI1OTgyNzkAAR4C1POt3-WZ5eD4_G21ySF2nEN2csuoEMsSfFeFzWp7IHgnLkcfdYp35M1xGw_aem_WWLVqQAgZELlohekzldAmw

essentialone1:
This is the clearest warning sign yet, for Tier-1 banks.

*The headline numbers - H1 2026:*

- *OPay:* Revenue +136.50% to $467.1m (N623.8bn), Pretax +276.00% to $134.5m, Net +318.00% to $90.9m
- *Zenith:* Gross earnings -24.60% to N1.899trn, Net income -19.00% to N430.7bn (tax hit)
- *GTCO:* Gross +3.20% to ~N1.1trn, PBT +0.40% to N603bn, PAT -7.70% to N414.2bn, Fee income -9.00% to N123bn, Loan book flat at N3.14trn

OPay is now ∼33.00% of Zenith's revenue and ∼28.00% of its profit, from almost zero, just 4 years ago. 89.50% of OPay's revenue, is still from Nigeria.

*Where OPay is actually winning:*

1. *Distribution:* 50.1m MAU, 26.8m DAU (July 31), tripled since Q1 2024. 90.1bn transactions worth $558bn LTM. 800k POS terminals + agents vs 5 bank branches per 100k people in Africa.
2. *Lending pivot:* This is the real threat. New loans originated in H1 tripled to $927.6m (N1.24trn), 6.7m borrowers in Q2 (7x vs early 2024). Loan income $236.1m (+168.00%) is now its biggest revenue line. Outstanding $324.9m is still only 3.60% of Zenith's book and 14.00% of GTCO's, but growing 204.00%.
3. *Deposits:* 42m+ users with savings, $978.9m balances (N1.31trn) — NDIC insured, interest-bearing. That's cheap deposits, that banks are losing.

*Why GTCO's -9.00% fee income matters:*
OPay's transaction revenue +87.00% to $130.6m, while GTCO's fee income fell. Banks live on fees + cheap retail deposits. If salary, transfers, and savings sit in OPay first, banks lose the data, and the float.

Zenith's defense is working better — fee income +40.00% on digital, NIM widened to 12.40%. So Tier-1s can compete, but not with branch-led model.

*OPay's own risk is flagged in its October 9 NYSE prospectus:*
- Credit loss provisions = 25.00% of revenue (high-risk 100-day loans).
- Regulatory risk of rate caps
- FX trap: limits moving dollars out of Nigeria could block dividends to foreign shareholders

Bottom line:

It's not size, it's velocity. OPay has 66.10% of active users, across finance apps, in Nigeria. Banks still dwarf it, but the daily habit, has flipped to fintech.

mikeapollo:
Thank you for this.
Hope you read the subtle hint about what is likely to happen early next year? The sale of up to 30‰ stake in JVs to partners?
Those partners are Seplat, Aradel, Oando etc.

chimex38:
50,000units X ₦525

mikeapollo:
Thank you for this.
Hope you read the subtle hint about what is likely to happen early next year? The sale of up to 30‰ stake in JVs to partners?
Those partners are Seplat, Aradel, Oando etc.

megawealth01:
COPY and PASTE

chimex38:
₦26million

Edit:
Please disregard the ₦26million.
It's ₦50,000 that's almost guaranteed to be alloted

Aliko Dangote has revealed that all investors who subscribes for 50k units (N26m) and below in the Refinery. Wiill be accommodated. pic.twitter.com/GtOef2nlB2

— Tuchel (@Officially_Kriz) October 13, 2026

mikeapollo:
There are very few certified CNG conversion/installation workshops and the initial cost is very high (even though it is much cheaper in the long run)..
The FG should have ensured there is widespread conversion workshops e g. In every local govt,, universities, polytechnics, State govt secretariates, motor licensing offices, some fuel marketing stations e g NNPC filling stations,etc in order to ensure deeper penetration and accessibility.
They failed to do that so the penerration is still very low.

unite4real:
The report is different from what dangote said in the video. he specifically said 50,000 shares.

see video below

Aliko Dangote has revealed that all investors who subscribes for 50k units (N26m) and below in the Refinery. Wiill be accommodated. pic.twitter.com/GtOef2nlB2

— Tuchel (@Officially_Kriz) October 13, 2026

SonofElElyonRet:
You just raised my hopes and dashed it almost immediately

Aliko Dangote has revealed that all investors who subscribes for 50k units (N26m) and below in the Refinery. Wiill be accommodated. pic.twitter.com/GtOef2nlB2

— Tuchel (@Officially_Kriz) October 13, 2026

chimex38:
It's actually ₦26million worth.
your hopes have been renewed again.


Direct source

Aliko Dangote has revealed that all investors who subscribes for 50k units (N26m) and below in the Refinery. Wiill be accommodated. pic.twitter.com/GtOef2nlB2

— Tuchel (@Officially_Kriz) October 13, 2026

Credit: @unite4real

chimex38:
Thanks for the video link.

Yes. He specifically said 50,000 shares.
So the ₦26million worth is inplace to fully get allotment.

All these journalists that don't pay attention to obvious details that are critical and capable of misinforming the public.

Thank you again.

ehay:
Can't they reduce the amount to what people can afford or do banks mop up from interested customers with lower amount to make up the 50million minimum amount