Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (11158) - Nairaland
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Stockpromoter(m): 8:39pm On Oct 24 |
Agbalowomeri:Just see the scenario below AGBA, LET US LOOK AT THE SIX PHASES OF AN INSURANCE BULL RUN. 📈 I think we may be looking at two different stages of the same market cycle. You are looking at the major sector bull run, possibly starting in December and extending into January/February. I am looking at the possibility of selected penny insurance stocks moving before the wider sector confirms its trend. Here is how the six phases could unfold: PHASE 1️⃣ — CATALYST AND EARLY POSITIONING Recapitalisation changes the industry's capital structure and future potential. Investors begin identifying companies that could benefit from stronger capital, improved business capacity, ownership changes or a possible turnaround. Some may start positioning before the results fully reflect these changes. PHASE 2️⃣ — SELECTED PENNY STOCKS MOVE FIRST Money does not have to enter every insurance stock simultaneously. Traders may target Guinea Insurance, IEI or LASACO because of individual catalysts, attractive valuations or buying pressure. Where available supply is limited, relatively modest demand can trigger a sharp percentage move. PHASE 3️⃣ — BIG-CAP CONFIRMATION Custodian, NEM and Mansard may subsequently attract broader investor participation. If their prices rise on sustained volume, it strengthens the argument that the market is moving beyond isolated penny-stock speculation towards a wider insurance-sector rally. PHASE 4️⃣ — ROTATION INTO OTHER INSURANCE STOCKS As the leading stocks appreciate, traders may search for other insurance companies that have not moved as much. Capital can rotate into selected laggards, especially where there are credible company-specific catalysts. However, not every laggard will necessarily follow. PHASE 5️⃣ — BROAD SECTOR PARTICIPATION This is where we can confidently begin discussing a broader sector bull run: more insurance stocks advance together, trading activity expands, and improving financial results or corporate developments support the price action. PHASE 6️⃣ — SPECULATIVE ACCELERATION Once confidence spreads, penny stocks may record larger percentage gains than the big caps because of their lower prices and thinner order books. But the same characteristics can produce sharp reversals when buyers disappear. NOW, HERE IS THE KEY POINT, AGBA. Your argument that the big caps may lead the major, sustainable rally is reasonable. But that does not rule out selected penny stocks moving in Phase 1 or Phase 2 before the wider sector rally develops. I am not claiming that every insurance stock will fly next week. I am saying that some individual stocks can move ahead of sector-wide confirmation, and we should assess them by their own catalysts, volume, demand and price structure. If Guinea, IEI or LASACO starts moving while the big caps are still consolidating, that could be an early, stock-specific move—not necessarily the full insurance bull run. If the big caps subsequently strengthen and participation spreads, that would support the broader rotation thesis. The phases are a framework, not a guaranteed timetable. They can overlap, happen in a different order or fail to develop. So perhaps we are not disagreeing about whether insurance stocks can rally. We are debating which phase comes first and when the wider sector confirms the move. Let us watch the evidence together. 📊 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by awesomeJ(m): 8:48pm On Oct 24 |
Agbalowomeri:Wow... Glad to see you on this side. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Stockpromoter(m): 8:49pm On Oct 24 |
@Agba,thats how the game will be played. It has already started with Guinea ins which was 0.68 kobo some days ago,it now pick Regency. These small caps with good catalyst may even do 50-70% before the main bull which the big cap stocks will trigger. My own take is those kobo insurance stocks with catalysts will start next week. Guinea,Iei,Lasaco will make the first move. Smart traders can rotate by jumping from the fast ones to the slower ones then finally catch with the big caps that will do the index magic |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 8:54pm On Oct 24 |
![]() awesomeJ: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Stockpromoter(m): 8:56pm On Oct 24 |
awesomeJ:He knows that insurance is the next to shake the market. He only likes the big cap ones. Thank you for your view in the matter BTW me and Mankindman2024.You put the record straight |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 9:00pm On Oct 24*. Modified: 11:11pm On Oct 24 |
awesomeJ:You no know say November don come |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 10:31pm On Oct 24*. Modified: 10:55pm On Oct 24 |
Some don draw list of rice,goat , cloths to buy for thr family. Na you be the target to achieve it for this December Ask them who is the mugu bringing new funds now to the market when uncertainty is in the air Is it the exhausted retail investors or the foreign investors that have reduced thr funds in the market to 4% last month. When they sell u go hear I am done for the yr see u next yr. No go carry u cash put for account incase u hear we have declared curfew or make u enter the neighbouring country This is the best time to keep ur cash for easy access .if u believe in the bull shit na bulldozer of ur money u go collect las las Ote fit don collect contract to keep ASi on green because of campaign achievement purpose Dangote Cement is the best stock to do the magic |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 10:48pm On Oct 24 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Streetinvestor2: 10:48pm On Oct 24 |
I will start to hawk stocks fish to intended mugu to buy as BAT is doing well |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 6:16am On Oct 25 |
*Femi Otedola is buying Dangote Cement again, as shares jump 10%.* *What is reported:* - Billionaire Femi Otedola is buying Dangote Cement shares again. - Target is said to be a *5% stake*. - Dangote Cement has very low free float - less than 10% - with Dangote Industries owning 86.65% as of Dec 2025. - Dangote Cement shares closed *10% higher at N1,111* on Friday, with market cap about N18.7 trillion. *Important caveat:* - Analysts *could not independently verify* the buying, or that it caused the price jump. - Buyer identities in NGX trades are not publicly disclosed. *Context:* - This would be a repeat. In 2024, Otedola bought at about N350, and released a statement citing export potential, over N2.1 trillion in dividend history, and governance. - "Mr. Otedola has cash with him now, and it appears he is taking strategic positions in companies he believes are undervalued, and Dangote Cement is one of them." *Price history:* - Opened this year at N609. - High of N1,180 in June 2026. - Fell below N900, then recovered to N1,111 on Friday. *What this means practically:* A 5% stake in Dangote Cement is massive - at N1,111 that is roughly N950bn worth of shares. Because free float is so small, it cannot be bought easily on the open market without moving the price heavily, so if true it would likely require a block or off-market deal. The confirmation to watch for is a *Substantial Shareholding filing* on NGX - anyone crossing 5% must file. This is not verified fact yet.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 6:24am On Oct 25 |
DANGCEM's trading: *Price action:* - *N1,111.00 + N101 (10%)* - it hit the daily limit up. - It was flat around N600 in Dec-Feb, climbed to ~N1,180 in June, then consolidated around N1,066, now broke out again. - Day's Low: N1,015.00 / Day's High: N1,111.00. *Friday was unusual volume:* - *Volume: 2.71M shares* - *Turnover: N2.88B* - *921 deals* Compare to previous days: - Oct 22: 654k volume - Oct 21: 266k - Oct 20: 142k - Oct 19: 447k but -5.5% - Normal days before: 90k - 635k So Friday was *∼4x normal volume* - someone was aggressively buying. *Performance:* - 1WK: +4.15% - 4WK: +4.15% - 3MO: -7.45% (because it fell from June high). - 6MO: +27.70% - 1YR: +85.20% - *YTD: +82.40%* - from N609 at start of year. Ranks 28th on NGX YTD. - Shares Outstanding: 16.9B - Market Cap: 18.7T - 85th most traded stock in last 3 months: total 38.4M shares (N27.6B turnover), but 2.7M of that, was just this last Friday. In short: low-float stock, huge volume spike on Friday, closed at limit up. That is why it pushed the whole NGX market cap to N160T. https://nairametrics.com/2026/10/24/scoop-otedola-buying-dangote-cement-again-as-shares-jump-10/ https://www.billionaires.africa/2026/10/24/nigerian-billionaire-femi-otedola-eyes-5-stake-in-dangote-cement/ |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 6:27am On Oct 25 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 6:35am On Oct 25 |
*Why Aradel may still have room, after doubling investors' money, in 2026.* *Performance:* - Closed Oct 16 at *N1,499.90* - Up *123.87% YTD* from N670 at end of 2025. - N100,000,000 invested at start of this year 2026 = N223,866,000 now. - BUT still *-25.89% below April peak of N2,024*. - So it doubled, then corrected ∼30% April to June, then flat N1,415 to N1,530 through Sept. - Last week: +8.93% from N1,377 to N1,499.90. *Why it jumped in 2026:* - Completed extra investment in ND Western on Dec 31, 2025, effective interest in Renaissance now *53.30%*. - Full earnings from those assets only started in 2026. - H1 2026: Revenue *N2.49 trillion vs N368B* a year earlier. - Operating profit *N1.06 trillion vs N118.62B*. - CEO Adegbite Falade: "Their full earnings contribution will be reflected, from 2026 onwards". *Cash is the stronger story:* - N975.61B generated from operations after tax in H1. - Spent N298.95B on capex, left N676.66B. - Repaid N253.79B borrowings, paid N145.52B interest. - Closing cash: N1.72 trillion. - But cash flow was helped by increased payables, receivables also jumped - needs watching. *Valuation catch:* - At N1,499.90 with TTM EPS N175.72, P/E looks *8.54x* - cheap. - BUT earnings include *one-off gains*: N217.10B bargain-purchase + N393.19B currency translation from acquisitions - not recurring. - Real operating picture: Profit attributable to Aradel shareholders rose only *6.30% to N153.66B* in H1, despite huge revenue jump - financing costs, and taxes ate the gain. *Analysts' view:* - Still 4 Buy recommendations (Blue Marina, Arthur Steven, First Securities, and Futureview). - Targets Sept: N1,977 to N4,136, average N2,589, median N2,121. - Targets Oct: average N2,557 - implies *∼70.50% upside* from N1,499. - But wide range = disagreement on value. *Technical and liquidity:* - Latest recovery volume 1.21M avg daily, *41% below 3-month avg 2.06M* - rebound lacks strong participation. - Needs break above N1,530, with higher volume, to confirm. - Free float *75.78%* at June 2026 - very liquid. Largest holders: Petrolin Ocean 12.26%, Fola Adeola 5.52%, Badagry Creek 5.33%. *Dividend watch:* - Last year, they declared N10 interim + N23 final = N33 total = *2.20% yield* at current price. - Q3 results + possible interim dividend, are next catalysts. *Summary:* Aradel _may_ still have room, because bigger asset base, gives chance to grow sustainable EPS, cash flow can fund production, and cut debt. But need to see execution - higher production, fewer shutdowns, cost control - plus oil price help. Current low P/E, is flattered by one-offs. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by GeneralDae: 8:19am On Oct 25 |
We are gradually returning to the stability of 2018/2019 (Buhari’s best years) and the glory days of Jonathan (2011 - 2014) . “ Nigeria’s net foreign exchange (FX) flows rose to $22.50 billion in the second quarter of 2026, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2019.” The supplied historical ranking places Q2 2026’s net FX flow of $22.50 billion in 12th position among the highest quarterly figures listed. The latest result is the strongest since Q4 2019, when net FX flows reached $25.08 billion. The top-ranked quarters in the historical list are: Q3 2014: $31.93 billion, the highest figure in the ranking. Q1 2013: $27.86 billion, followed by Q2 2014 at $26.24 billion. Q2 2013: $25.51 billion, while Q3 2013 recorded $25.14 billion. Q4 2019: $25.08 billion, the previous benchmark before the latest Q2 2026 figure. Other quarters in the top 12 include Q4 2013 at $24.12 billion, Q4 2012 at $24.09 billion, Q1 2008 at $23.66 billion, Q1 2019 at $23.28 billion and Q3 2012 at $22.56 billion. The ranking shows that although the second-quarter result is a notable recovery, it has not returned to the highest levels recorded during the periods listed.“ |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by francesfrances: 9:29am On Oct 25 |
Stockpromoter: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by hopeful95: 9:46am On Oct 25 |
Uncouth. Bottom barrel. Uncivilised. Toxic. Gleefully ignorant. Stupidly loud. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by GeneralDae: 10:54am On Oct 25 |
Dangote’s crude receipts and clean-product exports are both tracking towards their highest levels in Oct ’26, pointing to near-full-capacity utilisation. Tight AB product balances & access to locally available crude are incentivising Dangote to sustain high refinery runs despite surging freight rates.
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by elengine: 12:39pm On Oct 25 |
😀😀😀😀 I didnt like the way we were being distracted by those posting politics here and there, some are already shifting to ethnic bashing. So I thought I should redirect people's attention to what matters to this platform 😀😀 But I hear say Access don clear the issues raised by CBN o but this does not mean interim dividend sure faoogoke: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Coolcash1: 1:26pm On Oct 25 |
Added more to Aradel shares on Friday. Any price below N1500 is a steal. *Big speculative play in Oando. Bought N10M worth of shares at current price. *Gradual mopping of insurance stocks, IEI, Sovereign trust, Royalex, Guinea Be greedy when others are fearful. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 2:03pm On Oct 25 |
Coolcash1:Omo people get money o |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by MadmaxX489: 2:07pm On Oct 25 |
Agbalowomeri:Nonsensical rubbish. But Tboy has been so great to have won over admirers like yourself. Be a man and support your candidate boldly rather than resorting to illiterate talk. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by faoogoke(m): 2:07pm On Oct 25 |
I read it somewhere too. CBN seem to be identifying where they are falling short giving them time to adjust. Just this month accesscorp sold a chunk of its holdings in etranzac. Interim dividend may still be approved if not final dividend is certain. The have March 2027 deadline elengine: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:07pm On Oct 25 |
elengine:I think Access can only clear those issues effectively in 2027. And their performance will be very good Proceeds from the disposal/divestment of thieir stake in some foreign subsidiaries may be distributed as special dividends. So watch out for Access especially in 2027! I don't expect much in 2026 |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 2:11pm On Oct 25 |
Coolcash1:It's the money man! |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by SonofElElyonRet: 2:13pm On Oct 25 |
hopeful95:You are quite gifted in couching your verbal missiles. All these invectives and you weren't banned? Wow |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:20pm On Oct 25 |
Coolcash1:You are welcome to our "Club" ,! Hope you would be loyal and dedicated until it starts minting money and you can sell. Some people will taunt you for joining our " Club", but ignore them. You will surely make the billions! Remember, we have a "Prophet", and "Uncle" is our CEO. |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 2:24pm On Oct 25 |
faoogoke:I was thinking the ussues had to do with their stake in foreign entities? |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Agbalowomeri: 2:27pm On Oct 25 |
mikeapollo:Special dividend and ACCESS in the same sentence? Stop dreaming bro ![]() |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by hopeful95: 2:57pm On Oct 25 |
Agbalowomeri: |
| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 3:12pm On Oct 25 |
UBA, Access and First Bank
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| Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by mikeapollo: 3:27pm On Oct 25 |
Agbalowomeri:When they eventuslly sell off the foreign assets, the proceeds will reflect in what they would distribute to shareholders. It is not too difficult to understand. The same way you argued when I said there was no engineering design for Lagos-Calabar expressway before they awarded the contract. Now you know better ![]() |
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