₦airaland Forum

Aradel....

Roseey0:
Aradel....

Such a useless deal. Aradel will be working and giving it's profit to Shell. Over a billion dollars left to pay.

Go buy Dangcem. We will likely see it at 2k before the end of q1 2027.

Olaide1295:
Such a useless deal. Aradel will be working and giving it's profit to Shell. Over a billion dollars left to pay.

This is a fundamental misunderstanding of how mega-deals work. The Renaissance consortium didn't pay the full price upfront. SPDC is a 60-year-old giant with the majority of Nigeria's onshore fields. They paid a smaller upfront sum because Shell urgently wanted to exit, with a structured agreement that the balance is paid from future cash flows—especially when oil prices improve and the venture makes a windfall.

This is a standard M&A structure (deferred consideration/earn-out). It allows the new owners to start operating immediately without being crushed by debt. It protects them from going under because the remaining payments are tied to future performance.

Crucially, Aradel isn't just a minority partner giving its profit to Shell. Aradel owns a controlling 53.3% effective stake in Renaissance (through a direct 12.5% interest and an indirect stake via ND Western) . They are the dominant shareholder. So when Renaissance pays Shell from future cash flows, Aradel is paying itself as the majority owner of the asset. They aren't losing money to Shell; they are acquiring a massive asset on smart, self-financing terms.

Olaide1295:
Such a useless deal. Aradel will be working and giving it's profit to Shell. Over a billion dollars left to pay.

Monday would be red

the harder Aradel's team works to scale operations and pump more oil, the larger the penalty they have to hand over to Shell....

Shell (SPDC) walked away from these onshore fields because they labeled them "unviable" and plagued by oil theft, only for Aradel to immediately unlock record breaking production.

Shell spent the last decade complaining about community unrest, massive pipeline vandalism, and structural deterioration in the Niger Delta, using those issues to justify its multibillion dollar divestment strategy.


This makes the lopsided earn-out clause even more insulting for Aradel. Shell couldn't generate these barrels itself due to its own bureaucratic and security failures. Yet, through this contract,

Shell is effectively letting Aradel do all the heavy lifting, navigate the volatile Niger Delta terrain, and produce the oil only to step in at the end of the quarter and collect a ₦529.1 billion check from the top-line revenue.

Aradel proved it is a superior operator, but they signed a contract that turned them into highly efficient contract farmers for Shell.

Wale Tinubu is far smarter.... He bought out naoc outright.... and he's upfront with Oando's debt with Afrexim bank. Even with 44k bpd to aradel's 144k bpd Oando profit after tax is 100 billion Vs 44 billion for aradel...

When will Omatek PLC start production sef...

That thing wey una wan hear from my mouth nobi today joor 😂

Roseey0:
Aradel....

Over ₦1Trillion, 300billion Naira!!!

This is an official notice from *Meristem* to all Wealthbuddy users.

Your old funding account number has been changed.

*What it means:*
Meristem has moved from *Wealthbuddy to One Meristem*. So the old virtual account number you used to fund your wallet (the Wealthbuddy one) will no longer work.

You must now use a *new One Meristem virtual account number* for all future transfers, to your wallet.

*How to get your new number — 3 steps:*

*01 - Log in to One Meristem*:
Go to *one.meristemng.com* or open the One Meristem app, from Google Play, and sign in.

*02 - Tap Fund Wallet*:
On your landing page, or wallet page, select "Fund Wallet".

*03 - Get Your New Virtual Account Number*:
Copy your new One Meristem virtual account details, and use it for all your bank transfers, going forward.

> *Important:* Don't send money to your old Wealthbuddy virtual account again — it will not credit. Always use the new One Meristem number.

*VFD Group Plc nearly doubled profit*

For 9 months ended Sept 30, 2026 vs same period 2025:

- *Gross earnings:* N81.88bn (up 35% from N60.72bn)
- *Profit before tax:* N15.34bn (up 92% from N7.99bn)
- *Net profit:* N13bn (up 96% from N6.63bn)
- *EPS:* 75 kobo vs 38 kobo
- *Profit attributable to shareholders:* N9.52bn (+97%)

*What drove it:*
- Net investment income, their biggest revenue line, up 59% to N72.18bn
- Net revenue +42% to N77.52bn, Operating profit +47% to N58.53bn
- Cost-to-income ratio improved to 24.5% from 26.9%
- Impairment charges down 44% to N1.29bn

Finance cost was up 36% to N43.33bn due to funding the expanding portfolio, but profit still doubled.

*Balance sheet:*
- Total assets N577.64bn (+30% from Dec 2025 N445.81bn)
- Investment in financial assets more than doubled to N217.08bn
- Funds under management N142.52bn (+84%)
- Shareholders' funds N130.02bn (+87%)

*Capital moves:*
- They deployed proceeds of N50.67bn rights issue
- Raised N22.75bn via A1-rated commercial paper in Q3
- SEC approved Anchoria Capital Group as capital market holding company

*Leadership:*
- GMD Nonso Okpala said it reflects stronger investment activities and efficiency
- Appointed Mrs Emezie-Ezigbo as first Deputy Managing Director effective Oct 5, 2026 — ex-KPMG Partner, Head of Transaction Services West Africa, 20+ years experience

Group says Q4 focus is disciplined capital deployment, funding efficiency, and expanding capital markets business.

*Zenith Bank — 9 months to Sept 2026:*

- *Pre-tax profit:* N928.8bn — up 1.24% from N917.4bn last year
- *Gross earnings:* N2.87tr — down 15% from N3.37tr
- *Profit after tax:* N675.83bn — down 11.6% from N764.2bn (because tax jumped 65.1% to N252.97bn)
- *EPS:* N16.41 vs N18.60 last year

*What saved profit:*
- Credit impairment charges fell sharply — down 70.5% to N230.77bn from N782.76bn

*Income breakdown:*
- Net interest income flat at N1.93tr (Interest income N2.62tr -4.5%, Interest expense N688.73bn -15.4%)
- Net fee & commission income +26.6% to N256.85bn
- Net trading: LOSS of N229.19bn vs gain of N277.65bn last year — big swing
- Operating expenses +18.4% to N1.02tr — tech N97.88bn, fuel & maintenance N92bn, staff N213.15bn (+17.1%)

*By geography:*
- Nigeria: N680.54bn pre-tax
- Rest of Africa: N195.36bn
- Europe: N55.53bn

*Balance sheet:*
- Total assets N34.39tr
- Customer deposits N27.11tr
- Loans & advances N11.64tr

*Market:* Zenith shares up 94% on NGX in 2026 despite earnings drop.

In short — earnings down, but profit held up because they provisioned much less for bad loans this year. The PAT drop is mainly tax.

What is happening with *Aradel Holdings Plc* and the SPDC deal:

Aradel (formerly Niger Delta Exploration & Production) was part of the Renaissance consortium that bought *Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC)* — Shell's onshore business. This was a $1bn+ deal (priced at about N1,862,200,000,000). That is 1.86 Trillion Naira.

Instead of paying everything upfront, they did an *earnout* structure — common in oil & gas M&A.

*How earnout works:*
- You pay a base price now.
- You agree that if the asset performs very well — high oil price, high production — you will pay the seller an extra bonus later.
- It protects the buyer, if oil price crashes, and gives seller more, if it does well.

- *Already paid this year:* N543.9 billion as earnout to the SPDC sellers.
- *Still owing:* N1,318.3 billion more in future earnout payments.

That means the total bonus is over N1.86 trillion, which is huge — it tells you SPDC is producing, and selling a lot more, than the base case, so Aradel has to keep paying the extra.

For investors in Aradel Plc, this is two things:

1. *Good:* The asset is performing — strong cash flow.
2. *Risk:* Huge future liability that will eat cash flow for years.

Aradel disclosed this in its Q3 2026 accounts — that's why analysts are talking about it now.

Aradel's effective interest in Renaissance Africa Energy (the company that bought Shell's 30% of SPDC) went from 33.30% to *53.30%* on Dec 31, 2025, after they bought an additional 40% of ND Western, for $313.8m. ND Western itself holds 50% of Renaissance. So now, Aradel owns 81.67% of ND Western, which translates to 53.30% of Renaissance.

*1. The earnout is not a loss.*
The N1,318.3bn (remaining) + N543.9bn (already paid), is the contingent consideration that Renaissance owes Shell. It's tied to SPDC's future performance — oil price, and production. In Aradel's books, it was booked as ∼$989.3m contingent liability. It's an accounting liability, not a near-term cash call — settlement is expected over several years, as cash flow comes in.

*2. Smart, self-financing M&A.*
Renaissance didn't pay the full 60-year-old SPDC giant upfront. Shell wanted to exit Nigeria onshore urgently. The consortium paid a base, and the balance comes from the asset's own future cash flow. This is standard deferred consideration. It prevented the new owners, from being crushed by debt, day one.

*3. Aradel is paying itself.*
This is the part the market missed. Because Aradel controls 53.30% of Renaissance, when Renaissance pays Shell from future windfall cash, majority of that cash flow is Aradel's own asset. They aren't handing profit to Shell — they are acquiring SPDC, which holds majority of Nigeria's onshore fields, on instalments.

That's why Aradel's assets jumped 466% to N9.9tr in 2025, 2P reserves went from 35.00 mmboe, to 594.30 mmboe, and production went from 23k boepd, to 141k boepd, after consolidation.

It's not a debt crisis — it's a mega-deal, structured so that the asset, pays for itself. The risk is only if oil crashes hard, and production drops, then even the earnout to Shell reduces anyway.

NGX-ASI AT NEW 52-WEEK HIGH: MATTER ARISING
I have read the comments concerning my recent post on the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) reaching a new 52-week high, and I think there is a need to clarify a few things.

First, my statement concerning corporate and institutional investors renewing their confidence in government policies was simply an observation of market sentiment. The major investors that their activities are pushing the market higher are demonstrating continued confidence in the market andinvariably in the economic and policy environment. This does not mean that every stock listed on NGX must appreciate.

A rising index alone is not pointing to the fact that government policies are responsible for the rally alone. Other factors, including company's earnings, valuations and other metrics that our FA gurus pan out also influence stock prices. However, the continued willingness of major investors to commit capital is an important market signal that should not be ignored.

Second, about the argument that the NGX-ASI is being driven by a few large-cap stocks, I wonder why this should be new to anyone familiar with how major stock market indices operate.

Most major indices, including the S&P 500/NASDAQ in the US, FTSE 100 in the UK, and our own NGX-ASI, are weighted by market capitalization. These, larger companies naturally have greater influence on their movements.

For example, in the US the S&P 500 can make new highs because of the performance of a handful of mega-cap companies, even when several other stocks are declining. That does not invalidate the index or make its performance meaningless. It simply tells us which category of stocks is driving the market.

WHY WE MUST LOOK BEYOND THE INDEX & FOCUS ON MARKET BREADTH
For several years, I have consistently advocated the use of Market Breadth to determine the underlying health of the market before making medium- to long-term investment decisions. As a matter of fact, I developed my own proprietary market breadth indicators specifically for the Nigerian stock market. This include:

- Advance-Decline Line (A/D Line): To determine the advancing and declining stocks for short-term.
- McClellan Oscillator: Measures market breadth changes in medium-term.
- McClellan Summation Index: To assess the broader, longer-term direction.

These indicators allow me to look beyond the NGX-ASI and determine whether the underlying market is strengthening or weakening,

Today, NGX also provides the Growth Index, which allows us to monitor the performance of companies listed on its Growth Board, which can be an alternative of market breadth but should not be confused with a comprehensive market breadth indicator.

INFORMATION IN THE HANDS OF A WISE INVESTOR IS GOLDEN!
Suppose the NGX-ASI is making new 52-week highs, but negative sentiment causes a particular stock decline towards my buying level. Why should I be worried that the stock is falling while the index is rising? This divergence 'opinion' presents an opportunity to acquire the stock at a more attractive price.

Also, if the ASI continues to rise while market breadth deteriorates, I can use that information to become more selective, manage my exposure.

A good investor does not necessarily need every stock to rise before making money. What matters is to identify prevailing opportunities, understanding the market conditions and managing your risk!

My original post was about the performance of the NGX-ASI and the confidence reflected in the buying activities of major market participants. It was not a claim that every stock on NGX was rising . As investors and traders, our objective should be to understand what the market is telling us and use that information to make better investment decisions.

The index tells us where the market is going. Market breadth tells us how many stocks are participating in the journey. By analysing which stocks and sectors are driving the index, we can identify where money is flowing and where major investors are concentrating their buying interest.

I don't just churn out 'graphic' to show how ASI is doing; I provide meaningful market information to help people understand market trends, and make informed decisions.

By this TIME next YEAR
OANDO wil be in a LEAGUE of its OWN.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

PETERiCHY:
By this TIME next YEAR
OANDO wil be in a LEAGUE of its OWN.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Nope. It's still paying high interest to Afrexim. Killing interest....of over 200 billion naira just recently.... 2.7 trillion naira debt and over 500 billion naira shareholders negative equity is a classic

PETERiCHY:
By this TIME next YEAR
OANDO wil be in a LEAGUE of its OWN.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

It's already in a LEAGUE of its own

No COMPETITION with DEBT and negative RETAINED EARNINGS

ARADEL is effectively working for Shell Petroleum Development Company, OANDO appears to be working for the banks, while SEPLAT seems to be working for the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

Mankind2024:
ARADEL is effectively working for Shell Petroleum Development Company, OANDO appears to be working for the banks, while SEPLAT seems to be working for the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

Wahala no too much like this?

OANDO oil production remains very low at this point compared to others. That is major challenge. The revenue from oil production is too low.The so called revenue came from trading arm which generated negative profits at the end.
Aradel and saplet acquired premiium generating assets in the oil and gas sector.That is why thr EBITDA is on another level way above oando.

From the post 12 Things to Remember in 2026 (One for Each Month)

November – Remember to enjoy part of your gains
Investment is meant to serve you—reward yourself wisely along the journey.

HAPPY NEW MONTH TO ALL INVESTORS

Streetinvestor2:
OANDO oil production remains very low at this point compared to others. That is major challenge. The revenue from oil production is too low.The so called revenue came from trading arm which generated negative profits at the end.
Aradel and saplet acquired premiium generating assets in the oil and gas sector.That is why thr EBITDA is on another level way above oando.

Yeah.. Oando is just starting to drill the wells acquired from NAOC. That i why they are talking about getting some rigs to drill 7 wells
Once they drill the wells fully, the exploration and production segment will deliver better returns.
The other thing is the capital raising exercise. If that is done successfully, it would eliminate some finance costs

Megawealth001:
Nope. It's still paying high interest to Afrexim. Killing interest....of over 200 billion naira just recently.... 2.7 trillion naira debt and over 500 billion naira shareholders negative equity is a classic

The high interest rates are on loans from Nigerian commercial banks.
The Afrexim bank loan is a long term one with concessionary interest rate

Top Nigerian exports (H1 2026)

Crude petroleum ₦24.12 trillion

Natural gas ₦4.83 trillion

Kerosene-type jet fuel ₦2.94 trillion

Urea fertiliser ₦1.37 trillion

Cashew nuts ₦268.62bn in Q2

Cocoa beans ₦154.31bn in Q2

Sesame seeds ₦96.03bn in Q2

Non-monetary gold powder ₦73.09bn in Q2

Ok. I will join you at kilometre N20 😁

mikeapollo:
Yeah.. Oando is just starting to drill the wells acquired from NAOC. That i why they are talking about getting some rigs to drill 7 wells
Once they drill the wells fully, the exploration and production segment will deliver better returns.
The other thing is the capital raising exercise. If that is done successfully, it would eliminate some finance costs

PETERiCHY:
By this TIME next YEAR
OANDO wil be in a LEAGUE of its OWN.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

No carry people go where dem no go know

PETERiCHY:
By this TIME next YEAR
OANDO wil be in a LEAGUE of its OWN.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Not this year again

OandO OoooooooOoooooooo

Mankind2024:
ARADEL is effectively working for Shell Petroleum Development Company, OANDO appears to be working for the banks, while SEPLAT seems to be working for the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

Hmmmm... serious matter

chimex38:
Not this year again

OandO OoooooooOoooooooo

Make una pity Peter na

No be him go first deny Christ

Eshaa 'nu aje

Mankind you really have insight.
Flesh and blood didn't reveal this to you.

Mankind2024:
ARADEL is effectively working for Shell Petroleum Development Company, OANDO appears to be working for the banks, while SEPLAT seems to be working for the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

I love this

Mankind2024:
ARADEL is effectively working for Shell Petroleum Development Company, OANDO appears to be working for the banks, while SEPLAT seems to be working for the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS).

mikeapollo:
Yeah.. Oando is just starting to drill the wells acquired from NAOC. That i why they are talking about getting some rigs to drill 7 wells
Once they drill the wells fully, the exploration and production segment will deliver better returns.
The other thing is the capital raising exercise. If that is done successfully, it would eliminate some finance costs

always stories with OANDO for the past 12yrs...wetin happen?