₦airaland Forum

Walelavender:
Write-off APC @ your own peril. Why did the South-West (except Osun) vote GEJ(PDP) massively in 2011 on a saturday of the presidential election for them to turn around to vote in Fashola,Amosun,Ajimobi (APC) on the day of the governorship elections. This research doesn't hold water. PDP has had close to 16 years. We need something different and better. We ain't a one party state! Since 1999, this would be the first time the ruling party is catching severe cold. Give the opposition a CHANCE for CHANGE!

Bruteforce1o1:
Ogun state politics is not like the SE politics. Which Buruji? He has the drug money to splash around and only popular in that tiny Ijebu Igbo. OGD's case is like that of Bode George, they all see him as a rogue and that will hunt him as well. Scaterboss was spot on when he said the man financed cultist while in power, i was in school during the time of Osoba and first term of Gbenga Daniel, so i know what am saying.

Amosun will surely win, not with wide margin but GEJ will lose woefully in Ogun state.

ilugunboy:

Wetin you go do? You don dey go ojere?

maestroferddi:
I will be wasting my time touching base with you.

Your emotion is doing the talking for now. Maybe we shall engage when you get lucid...

Demdem:
Barcanista is a ND man. Is like u saying in Rivers, who mobilizes more than Peter Odili

barcanista:
The odds is not favorable to Amosun. SDP is the party dictating the pace in Ogun State as at today. How can Amosun win the election? The structure that brought him to power is no longer with him. The division in PDP that catalysed his emergence is no longer there. Amosun's mistake was to think that his incumbency is enough. Even Kwakwaso that performed a lot lost to Shekarau of ANPP in Kano 2003. Why? Because the structure that brought him to power in 1999 moved to ANPP to support GMB/Shekarau. In politics, you don't just sit and lose associates just like that, not to talk of influential associates. I said it in Ekiti after analysis that Fayemi will lose. I analysed Osun and predicted victory for Aregbesola. We shall see the outcome in Ogun and Oyo States.

Bruteforce1o1:
You have no point bro, an Ibo man based in Lagos that now knows more than those in Ogun state. Very funny.

barcanista:
Accord in Oyo a lightweight? SDP in Oyo and Ogun also lightweight? LP in the SW that has always been the dark-horse a lightweight too? You overrate APC bros..

maestroferddi:
And the answer is that politically speaking, Amaechi is a dead man walking in Rivers State.

You don't mess around with Peter Odili who has been around in Rivers politics since the time of Rufus Ada George.

It is a no-brainer that Wike will humiliate Amaechi and the stooge fronting for him in the shape of Dakuku Peterside in Rivers. Buhari will be fortunate to get up to 7% of total votes in Rivers. Put your finger on the foregoing...

barcanista:
We all know what happened to PDP in the SW. Oyo and Ogun were highly factionalised in 2011. Lagos has always been factionalised since 2006. The Fashola hype was at its peak in Lagos as at 2011, divided PDP votes benefitted Amosun and Ajimobi in Ogun and Oyo respectively. Unfortunately for the APC, they've lost that grassroot base in Ogun to SDP and PDP is united. In Oyo, we have a party called Accord that is causing political waves. Labour and PDP are even trailing. What Ajomobi still enjoys is nothing apart from incumbency- However, that isn't a factor in Oyo state.

As for the Presidential, Buhari is not even being campaigned for except on the minds of APC supporters. Other parties are campaigning for GEJ. The result will send some shocker when announced by inec

CostaHazard:
With this warped logic of yours that someone can't win elections because "the structure that brought him to power is no longer with him", is it then safe to say Jonathan can and will never win his re-election because the structure that brought him to power in 2011 and earlier (2007/2010) is no longer with him (Obj, Amaechi, Saraki, Tinubu, to mention but a few)?

barcanista:
You APC are very funny. You seem to believe things according to your emotions. Amosun is more popular than Jonathan? Bros, Amosun is even grasping for popularity. Buhari is not even talked about in Ogun State by majority of electorates

ElFenomeno1:
Wike humliate Dakuku and Amaechi?

You are out of touch with reality sir!

Your jaw will drop next month!

ozoigbondu:
Another masterpiece South west votes will be spilt.Ignore all these yourba touts bogging down here with their numerous monikers paid by APC to make noise here.The real yourbas on ground knows that GEJ is the man

Meanwhile GEJ till 2019

Walelavender:
I understand you fully. The sympathy GEJ got from electorates in 2011 has taken its flight to the doorstep of GMB. You don't want to give GEJ a landslide. I possibly see a run-off (if GMB doesn't win) in presidential election. Osoba is wasting his time in Ogun. SIA one is a performer and I can tell you categorically that the SDP and PDP men are no match for him. Ajimobi of Oyo will bank on the split in the PDP. A lot of divided votes amongst them(PDP,LP,SDP AP) with APC having a slight edge. I live there. Not a print or electronic media analysis. Bro let's be factual. This wind of CHANGE is blowing massively. We will get THERE one day, with better institutions

Bayswater:
GEJ's campaign in the southwest has not even started.

What you are seeing is just the ground work, the 'real mobilisation' starts on the 21st.

Expect various artisans to start taking positions in that week.

The mamalojas in their thousands now have their GEJ Ankara ready. What could be more grassroots than that?

APC go know how far oops

I'm sure APC did not see that coming.

maestroferddi:
And the answer is that politically speaking, Amaechi is a dead man walking in Rivers State.

You don't mess around with Peter Odili who has been around in Rivers politics since the time of Rufus Ada George.

It is a no-brainer that Wike will humiliate Amaechi and the stooge fronting for him in the shape of Dakuku Peterside in Rivers. Buhari will be fortunate to get up to 7% of total votes in Rivers. Put your finger on the foregoing...

Gbawe2:
Oga mi, I dey laff. There is so much we cannot say here. Do people know how many desperados Osoba coerced, even when they had nothing against Amosun originally, to fight the Ogun State Governor? How many know that Osoba promised all these guys the single guber SDP ticket? How many know Osoba extorted as much as N30 million each from these guys to 'guarantee' them the SP guber ticket? How do people think all these guys are feeling today knowing Osaba 'punked' them? 'Pound of flesh' things. I just dey laff. Uncharacteristically of me, I have even said too much yet I want some things known so that we can refer to it after free and fair elections has given some wannabe upstarts a lesson about how nuanced and complex SW politics is.

politifact:
I have decided not to argue with anyone on this forum till march 28 but I think there are some things you ought to know about the south west,and I will explain it to you state by state . LAGOS-I have lived there all my life and I am very familiar with political events in this state since 1999 when bola tinubu became the governor .one thing about election in this state is that the oba's,OPC,afenifere or whatever name you give them don't hold any influence when it comes to election mobilization which is key to winning elections,rather,it is the local councils who are the closest to the grass roots and its been controlled by the APC. Secondly,lagos oba's will and can never campaign for GEJ as they are all in tinubu's pocket,thirdly,the APC is just too rooted in lagos,go to any newspaper stand and you will see for yourself. Fourthly,lagos state has the highest number of unemployed youth who attended the failed immigration recruitment and has an ax to grind with mr president(myself included). Fifthly,civil servants,market women,NURTW and other key interest in all in the kitty for the APC,however,mr president is only popular among the igbo residents in lagos who supports him for no other reason than ethnic sentiments. I can bet it that gen buhari will secure a landslide victory in lagos. OGUN- political analysis is about dynamism,that is,analysis should be made on the dynamics of each subject matter. There are three contending political parties in ogun state;the ruling APC,PDP and the SDP,the APC candidate,gov. Amosun is a performer and has further brightened the chances of the party even though former governor,segun osoba has decamped to the SDP but one thing I want you to know is that the yoruba's and the people of ogun state can vote different parties for different offices and also putting into consideration the fact that the APC vice presidential candidate,prof yemi osinbajo is from the state as ethnicity will play a major role. OSUN-I don't think I need to explain anything,osun is in the kitty for gen buhari. OYO- as a keen follower of the state by state campaigns of both the PDP and the APC,oyo state witnessed the largest turnout for the candidate of the APC,gen buhari who was so surprised he didn't even know what to say on the podium.I don't know how far the APC will go in the governorship election but I am telling you that GEJ will lose oyo state. ONDO- it must be noted that ondo is also a core yoruba state even though it is now under the PDP and the resentments of the GEJ administration by the yoruba's will come to play here. Furthermore,there is deep division within the PDP in this state while the opposition APC is waxing stronger on a daily basis.I have friends based in ondo state who confidently tells me governor mimiko has lost so much popularity in the state hence there is nothing he can do to save pres jonathan from losing the state. EKITI- This is the only state I think GEJ might win,gov fayose has continued his harassment of the opposition in the state and prevented them from campaigning for their candidate. Even with all his threats,gen buhari will still close in on the PDP. The yoruba's minds are made up already and this started when GEJ sidelined us in his government,we thought he only needed the votes of his kinsmen in the south-south and south-east to get re-elected,his time is up!

politifact:
I have decided not to argue with anyone on this forum till march 28 but I think there are some things you ought to know about the south west,and I will explain it to you state by state . LAGOS-I have lived there all my life and I am very familiar with political events in this state since 1999 when bola tinubu became the governor .one thing about election in this state is that the oba's,OPC,afenifere or whatever name you give them don't hold any influence when it comes to election mobilization which is key to winning elections,rather,it is the local councils who are the closest to the grass roots and its been controlled by the APC. Secondly,lagos oba's will and can never campaign for GEJ as they are all in tinubu's pocket,thirdly,the APC is just too rooted in lagos,go to any newspaper stand and you will see for yourself. Fourthly,lagos state has the highest number of unemployed youth who attended the failed immigration recruitment and has an ax to grind with mr president(myself included). Fifthly,civil servants,market women,NURTW and other key interest in all in the kitty for the APC,however,mr president is only popular among the igbo residents in lagos who supports him for no other reason than ethnic sentiments. I can bet it that gen buhari will secure a landslide victory in lagos. OGUN- political analysis is about dynamism,that is,analysis should be made on the dynamics of each subject matter. There are three contending political parties in ogun state;the ruling APC,PDP and the SDP,the APC candidate,gov. Amosun is a performer and has further brightened the chances of the party even though former governor,segun osoba has decamped to the SDP but one thing I want you to know is that the yoruba's and the people of ogun state can vote different parties for different offices and also putting into consideration the fact that the APC vice presidential candidate,prof yemi osinbajo is from the state as ethnicity will play a major role. OSUN-I don't think I need to explain anything,osun is in the kitty for gen buhari. OYO- as a keen follower of the state by state campaigns of both the PDP and the APC,oyo state witnessed the largest turnout for the candidate of the APC,gen buhari who was so surprised he didn't even know what to say on the podium.I don't know how far the APC will go in the governorship election but I am telling you that GEJ will lose oyo state. ONDO- it must be noted that ondo is also a core yoruba state even though it is now under the PDP and the resentments of the GEJ administration by the yoruba's will come to play here. Furthermore,there is deep division within the PDP in this state while the opposition APC is waxing stronger on a daily basis.I have friends based in ondo state who confidently tells me governor mimiko has lost so much popularity in the state hence there is nothing he can do to save pres jonathan from losing the state. EKITI- This is the only state I think GEJ might win,gov fayose has continued his harassment of the opposition in the state and prevented them from campaigning for their candidate. Even with all his threats,gen buhari will still close in on the PDP. The yoruba's minds are made up already and this started when GEJ sidelined us in his government,we thought he only needed the votes of his kinsmen in the south-south and south-east to get re-elected,his time is up!

barcanista:
Wetin I do?

Gbawe2:
You are one of the few posters here I like and respect. This is the only reason I am even responding. I have absolutely no interest in contributing my opinion on any thread started by this OP. Doing so is like a father with young children having to 'hang out' with a hardened and unrepentant paedophile. The OP, as you know now, is a totally disgusting human being any decent and morally upright person , whether APC or PDP, will avoid.

Suffice to say, as is the case with unprincipled mercenaries like FFK, OP is delusional attempting to speak for the SW. I can tell you all that majority of average Yorubas do not have a single reason to vote for GEJ. Not one and they are determined to resist and reject him. People can believe me if they want or not but I can authoritatively state here that it is the overwhelming defeat GEJ was facing in the SW that necessitated the much-condemned election postponement. They wanted to try and use the 7 extra weeks to buy every opinion leader in the SW to help them deliver a GEJ win. It is not working so far and GEJ is on a 'long thing'. "Maga don come" things. Anyone giving credibility to the analysis of the hungry OP is simply naive.

OP is a discredited character who works on 'guestimates' while trying to be the insider he will never be. He is the same character who started panicking here about Buhari losing the APC primaries because info was put in the public domain, by PDP desperados, that Atiku had successfully out-bribed all others and was on course to defeat Buhari. Him and others will confess I told them it was all hogwash. I was privy to information that made me realise Buhari would win overwhelmingly because the SW 'big boys' were working for him and would not entertain any derailment of their 'mission'. I told them this but many did not believe me. Yet we all know what happened. It is the same with the upcoming election never mind the delusions of GEJ and his crew.

Similarly, as I predicted the outcome of the APC presidential Primaries and Lagos guber primaries, I am saying here and now that GEJ will not win in the SW if elections are free and fair. On the contrary, the people of the region will disgrace him and the PDP. I can't speak about some things publicly but I will tell you that the PDP, because it is a Party of desperate men and women scared about their future, is operating on 'dutch courage' and pretence bravado. The underground truth is that the APC is not talking much but the Party is fully ready, on all fronts, to counter and overcome the PDP. Who is Gani Adams , Fasehun, FFK, Obanikoro et al? Is it because the Yoruba heavyweight are silent that makes the 'omo ales' think they now run the show? Those who matter in Yoruba land know what they have to do. I will leave it at that. The wise and experienced heads here should ask themselves why Lagos did not fall into PDP hands even under the uber-bully OBJ was. Therein lies the clue to the omerta-style code that will play out to leave the PDP stunned. Imagine silly TANdroid children who are not from the SW pinning their hopes on loquacious, turncoat and desperate opportunists like Fayose, Obanikoro, FFK, Adams et al when the real self-made leaders of the region, that the people respect and obey , have already passed on the message about what must happen. I dey laff. As they say " e go do dem like film".

Jesusloveyou:
pple like u,na im spoil dis country,speaking from both side of ur mouth.

barcanista:
I don't see any run-off for the Presidential. Being a performer is one thing, having a strong political base is another. SIA will be given aÑother Fayemi. As for Ajimobi, he can't win Ibadan, he can't win Oyo town, he can't win Ogbomoso. I wonder where he will get his vote. Honestly, I'm not even counting him in the equation(I may be wrong tho).

Gbawe2:
You are one of the few posters here I like and respect. This is the only reason I am even responding. I have absolutely no interest in contributing my opinion on any thread started by this OP. Doing so is like a father with young children having to 'hang out' with a hardened and unrepentant paedophile. The OP, as you know now, is a totally disgusting human being any decent and morally upright person , whether APC or PDP, will avoid.

Suffice to say, as is the case with unprincipled mercenaries like FFK, OP is delusional attempting to speak for the SW. I can tell you all that majority of average Yorubas do not have a single reason to vote for GEJ. Not one and they are determined to resist and reject him. People can believe me if they want or not but I can authoritatively state here that it is the overwhelming defeat GEJ was facing in the SW that necessitated the much-condemned election postponement. They wanted to try and use the 7 extra weeks to buy every opinion leader in the SW to help them deliver a GEJ win. It is not working so far and GEJ is on a 'long thing'. "Maga don come" things. Anyone giving credibility to the analysis of the hungry OP is simply naive.

OP is a discredited character who works on 'guestimates' while trying to be the insider he will never be. He is the same character who started panicking here about Buhari losing the APC primaries because info was put in the public domain, by PDP desperados, that Atiku had successfully out-bribed all others and was on course to defeat Buhari. Him and others will confess I told them it was all hogwash. I was privy to information that made me realise Buhari would win overwhelmingly because the SW 'big boys' were working for him and would not entertain any derailment of their 'mission'. I told them this but many did not believe me. Yet we all know what happened. It is the same with the upcoming election never mind the delusions of GEJ and his crew.

Similarly, as I predicted the outcome of the APC presidential Primaries and Lagos guber primaries, I am saying here and now that GEJ will not win in the SW if elections are free and fair. On the contrary, the people of the region will disgrace him and the PDP. I can't speak about some things publicly but I will tell you that the PDP, because it is a Party of desperate men and women scared about their future, is operating on 'dutch courage' and pretence bravado. The underground truth is that the APC is not talking much but the Party is fully ready, on all fronts, to counter and overcome the PDP. Who is Gani Adams , Fasehun, FFK, Obanikoro et al? Is it because the Yoruba heavyweight are silent that makes the 'omo ales' think they now run the show? Those who matter in Yoruba land know what they have to do. I will leave it at that. The wise and experienced heads here should ask themselves why Lagos did not fall into PDP hands even under the uber-bully OBJ was. Therein lies the clue to the omerta-style code that will play out to leave the PDP stunned. Imagine silly TANdroid children who are not from the SW pinning their hopes on loquacious, turncoat and desperate opportunists like Fayose, Obanikoro, FFK, Adams et al when the real self-made leaders of the region, that the people respect and obey , have already passed on the message about what must happen. I dey laff. As they say " e go do dem like film".

barcanista:
This is typical of APC. I've always avoided discussing the contribution and votes of SE and SS people residing in Lagos,

please am interested in this. I learnt the total population of this group in Lagos is now around 82%

maestroferddi:
Madam it goes beyond sounding off online.

Wike is probably the strongest grassroots politician in the current dispensation. Like Wike like Fayose.

I am not saying what I don't know. Make your findings from people on ground in Rivers. Amaechi and his man Friday are disasters waiting to happen. Almost all the political leaders in Rivers are with Wike.

Bookmark this call...