₦airaland Forum

davidif:
The problems with the 2006 census.

davidif:
You are talking as if the Southern states don't do the same thing or are you one of those hypocrites that looks at others transgressions without looking at yours?

Amberon11:
Google maps will cure your own ignorance. I won't even engage you any further.

Rebelutionary:
Nairaland has taught me that in Nigeria everyone chooses to believe whateva they like even wen confronted with irrefutable facts...so my bro dnt bug ur head over this folks that wl neva see their wrong but wl always dwell in this victim mentality mode....You are right there's as much inflation of census numbers in the north as there is in the south...that can't b disputed...the last presidential election should suffice where numbers were bandied from both sides of the divide

I personally believe the North has the numbers in their favour but the numbers thrown about are quite fallacious.

I agree wt u dt wat fuels this whole inflationary irresponsibility of census figures is purely state and local govt allocation but its abolition is clearly not practical and a different approach within this entity should be adopted!

Blue3k:
I didn't think getting population census was so hard till reading about Nigeria's dilemma.

Kirigidi:
I was aware of what happened during the last Census [2006]. I heard how many towns and villages inflated their population counts by more than times three [x3] after bribing NPC field officers all in a bid to boost their population figures. Some communities used kernel shell to fake fingerprints. If accurate and fair census should be conducted in Nigeria today, you may be surprised that Nigeria's actual population figure is not more than 100 million people.

Cjrane2:
Nigeria, the King of Voodoo statistics!


Believe Nigeria government statistics at your peril.

Kirigidi:
I was aware of what happened during the last Census [2006]. I heard how many towns and villages inflated their population counts by more than times three [x3] after bribing NPC field officers all in a bid to boost their population figures. Some communities used kernel shell to fake fingerprints. If accurate and fair census should be conducted in Nigeria today, you may be surprised that Nigeria's actual population figure is not more than 100 million people.

nyben4eva:
I'll check it out.

PrecisionFx:
No one knows the population of Nigeria because u can't count all the animals in a forest...


Imagine that in 1991 census Nigeria's population was pegged at 88 million n by 2011 it was estimated at over 160 million. Pls 20 years is not even up to a generation and yet the Nigerian population doubled in that period.

omohayek:
A nice idea, one I agree with completely in principle, but also one which stands no realistic chance of ever coming to pass. Without federal allocations, at least 33 out of 36 states would soon have to declare bankruptcy for lack of funds to keep operating. These "states" should never have been created to begin with, but now that they are here, how easy will it be to get all those governors, state legislators, administrative aides and civil servants to agree to the abolition of their government "jobs"? And if most of Nigeria's joke "states" have to go, that also means shrinking the NASS, especially the Senate, which is the last thing that chamber of thieves and rogues will ever go along with.

davidif:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275595277_Technical_and_political_aspects_of_the_2006_Nigerian_population_and_housing_Census

nyben4eva:
Thanks

davidif:
Then cut off the supply of the money. Sell or disband all state owned industries (including NNPC or NLNG). I don't think you need to go through the house or the Senate to do that.

When you turn off the tap, you simply starve the beast. Then go on the road and sell his vision to the people. It's amazing how Nigerian leaders have still not figured out how to use the media for their agenda. We still don't do daily press conferences, no weekly presidential addresses, heck instead of the President addressing trade unions or going to university convocations to sell his message to the people he is still flying around the world. It's really sad really because it doesn't take much to book a 15 min slot on Funmi Iyanda's show (I don't know if she is still on) but get your message out there for goodness sakes.

senatordave1:
Sir abagworo,i am one of your ardent admirers and followers.i dont want to argue with you based on my fervour towards you but i must.how can all the natives of ekwusigo be 400,000 worldwide when much of its present population is non indigenous and all ibos commonly state that 40 to 50% of ibos are outside their homeland.no place in this world can have more of its native population outside than at home(except israelis,jews) except war torn countries.i will agree with your earlier assertion that anambra and imo have the highest natives only in southern nigeria but that doesnt make the south more populated than the north indigenously or otherwise.kano,katsina,kaduna,borno,niger,bauchi,benue has more natives than anambra.even akwa ibom,oyo,delta,osun,edo,ogun rival anambra and imo

omohayek:
But how do you reward your lackeys and kinsmen without bloated parastatals in which to give them jobs? How do you pay back your political henchmen without "juicy" public sector appointments where they can gorge on theft?

The problem isn't simply one of a lack of vision, but of a corrupt political elite which has no personal stake in wanting real reform. There's a reason why Buhari - aka "Mr Honest" - has done absolutely nothing to privatize or deregulate anything: because a lot of his fellow elite northerners personally stand to lose out tremendously in a more efficient and profit-driven system, under which simply being "Alhaji XYZ, cousin of ABC from Kano" will no longer suffice as credentials for running big corporations.


They don't care because they know it won't matter. As cynical as it may come across, the truth is that most Nigerians interpret everything they read or hear through the lenses of ethnic and religious sectarianism. All that matters in weighing the arguments a politician makes is where he comes from and how he worships: just look at the relentless abuse Fashola receives from ignorant people who insist Barth Nnaji was so much better, even though Nnaji recommends exactly the same energy policies as the ones Fashola is attempting to implement. No points for guessing what is really going on there ...

The recent Ondo state elections were another case of how the absurd obsession with origin can trump everything. Although a few candidates actually presented political manifestos with concrete plans, nobody paid them the slightest attention, while the eventual winner of the election never even bothered to show up for the pre-election debates, counting (rightly) on his place of origin to carry him through with the "our son" crowd of voters (which is the vast majority in most places outside Lagos).

Nigerian politicians will only start to care about putting together proposals and going on the road to sell them when the Nigerian electorate itself starts to care about such matters.

Abagworo:
Try to visit that same Ekwusigo during festive season between December 25th and January 3rd and you will notice the difference. If you are sincere and just do accurate research you will find out that Igbos constitute 2nd most populous in majority of communities across Nigeria and population of diaspora Igbos has grown astronomically. Igbos have always been underestimated.

davidif:
And that's why we need to get rid of the whole concept of 'State of Origin' by any means necessary. It's what drives this nonsense sectarianism in this country. If you have lived in a place for more than two years then you can qualify for residency in that state simple as ABC. All this allegiances to states or tribes can be wiped out by passing easy measures. Always start with the East solutions before moving to the complex ones.

omohayek:
Abolishing "State of Origin" may remove the legal impediments to people from other places participating in local politics, but it won't remove the mental impediments afflicting the majority of the electorate: if people in Ondo South won't vote for someone from Akure, what are the odds they will ever consider someone from Onitsha or Kafanchan? Many of the voters in Osun's recent senatorial elections expressed resentment of Aregbesola's supposed "parachuting" of Lagos residents into local offices, even though the candidates in question actually hailed from Osun themselves, so you can imagine the hell that would break loose if people who aren't even Yoruba (let alone from Osun) were to be appointed in large numbers. I use Osun in this example, but I'm certain the situation is just as bad everywhere else in the country outside Lagos.

The converse to this distaste for non-indegenes in public life is that the possibility of migrant communities thinking their large numbers give them the clout to put forward "their son" for election could also see ethnic tensions increase, as those who consider themselves true "sons of the soil" boil over with rage at the temerity of the newcomers. That's what has been going on in Plateau state, and it's what happened in Lagos with the Ambode/Agbaje election - both the local Yorubas and the Lagos-resident Igbos came to see Agbaje as an "Igbo" candidate, which not only doomed his electoral chances, but also seriously strained Yoruba-Igbo relations in Lagos.

The long and short of it is that I think Nigerians are too firmly attached to their ethnic identities for "State of Origin" to either stand a realistic chance of abolition, or to have a net beneficial effect even if it were somehow abolished. Far more likely is that it would be interpreted in the same way as Ironsi's decree turning Nigeria into a unitary state: as an attempt by Igbos to dominate the host communities in which they reside. I'm not passing a moral judgment here, but simply stating what I think would transpire in the real world.

davidif:
So all you are describing is simply a failure of leadership then. What Nigeria needs is a truly transformational leader who can unite the country together and urge them to push aside their petty differences and focus on a specific goal or vision. The aforementioned person has to be a legendary communicator a la JFK or Obama with impeccable integrity and very strong (anything above average will do) leadership skills.

omohayek:
And how exactly will this magical figure get to participate at the presidential level, let alone win, given the serious financial hurdles currently in place (which suits both sides of the APC/PDP duopoly), as well as the near-total disinterest in ideas or policies displayed by the Nigerian populace?

Neither JFK nor Obama would have stood the slightest chance of winning if they'd had to rely entirely on ethnic loyalties on election day, but in both cases they got sufficient numbers of people outside their core supporters to buy into the vision they were selling (which is where Hillary fell short). The problem in Nigeria is that (with the possible exception of MKO Abiola) I have not once seen political candidates successfully transcend the usual tribal and religious voting patterns to win new voters through actual policy proposals, and nothing I see happening in Nigerian life suggests that this is about to change any time soon. The 2019 elections will be decided by the same old factors of ethnicity as before, with Buhari likely to win a second term even if he returns in a vegetative coma, simply because he represents "The North", never mind that they will have nothing concrete to show for the 4 years he's been in office. If Buhari does bow out, then it will be another Northerner taking his place, not because he's the best candidate or most logical choice of successor (in saner climes that would be Osinbajo) but because the northerners believe it's still "their turn". Where in all this insanity do you see reasons for optimism about the emergence of a transformational, visionary leader?

davidif:
Then get INEC to change the rules to allow outsiders to get in the game abi is INEC not an independent body?

davidif:
And that's why we need to get rid of the whole concept of 'State of Origin' by any means necessary. It's what drives this nonsense sectarianism in this country. If you have lived in a place for more than two years then you can qualify for residency in that state simple as ABC. All this allegiances to states or tribes can be wiped out by passing easy measures. Always start with the East solutions before moving to the complex ones.

omohayek:
It should be in theory, but is it in practice? Isn't this the same INEC that just coincidentally suspended Melaye's recall right when Saraki decided to open a probe into the Tertiary Education Trust Fund which INEC's chairman just happened to have run between 2007 and 2012? I've seen INEC's denials of a connection on Twitter, but I don't believe it for a second, any more than I believe Saraki's recent acquittal by the CCT was a mere matter of the rule of law playing out.

I guess what it comes down to is that you retain a certain level of faith in Nigerian institutions that I simply don't possess. I see a system that is rotten all the way down, with the fault for that rot lying directly at the feet of the self-same masses who complain most about its effects. A mass change in mentality is required for things to improve, but I don't think a change of such magnitude occurring in the space of a few years, or simply because a single honest and visionary politician shows up on the scene. I think what we are talking about is a generational struggle on the order of the European Enlightenment, a sustained campaign of education that will require decades of effort, sufficient time for the natural passing of older generations incapable of change.

omohayek:
And how exactly will this magical figure get to participate at the presidential level, let alone win, given the serious financial hurdles currently in place (which suits both sides of the APC/PDP duopoly), as well as the near-total disinterest in ideas or policies displayed by the Nigerian populace?

Neither JFK nor Obama would have stood the slightest chance of winning if they'd had to rely entirely on ethnic loyalties on election day, but in both cases they got sufficient numbers of people outside their core supporters to buy into the vision they were selling (which is where Hillary fell short). The problem in Nigeria is that (with the possible exception of MKO Abiola) I have not once seen political candidates successfully transcend the usual tribal and religious voting patterns to win new voters through actual policy proposals, and nothing I see happening in Nigerian life suggests that this is about to change any time soon. The 2019 elections will be decided by the same old factors of ethnicity as before, with Buhari likely to win a second term even if he returns in a vegetative coma, simply because he represents "The North", never mind that they will have nothing concrete to show for the 4 years he's been in office. If Buhari does bow out, then it will be another Northerner taking his place, not because he's the best candidate or most logical choice of successor (in saner climes that would be Osinbajo) but because the northerners believe it's still "their turn". Where in all this insanity do you see reasons for optimism about the emergence of a transformational, visionary leader?

omohayek:
But how do you reward your lackeys and kinsmen without bloated parastatals in which to give them jobs? How do you pay back your political henchmen without "juicy" public sector appointments where they can gorge on theft?

The problem isn't simply one of a lack of vision, but of a corrupt political elite which has no personal stake in wanting real reform. There's a reason why Buhari - aka "Mr Honest" - has done absolutely nothing to privatize or deregulate anything: because a lot of his fellow elite northerners personally stand to lose out tremendously in a more efficient and profit-driven system, under which simply being "Alhaji XYZ, cousin of ABC from Kano" will no longer suffice as credentials for running big corporations.


They don't care because they know it won't matter. As cynical as it may come across, the truth is that most Nigerians interpret everything they read or hear through the lenses of ethnic and religious sectarianism. All that matters in weighing the arguments a politician makes is where he comes from and how he worships: just look at the relentless abuse Fashola receives from ignorant people who insist Barth Nnaji was so much better, even though Nnaji recommends exactly the same energy policies as the ones Fashola is attempting to implement. No points for guessing what is really going on there ...

The recent Ondo state elections were another case of how the absurd obsession with origin can trump everything. Although a few candidates actually presented political manifestos with concrete plans, nobody paid them the slightest attention, while the eventual winner of the election never even bothered to show up for the pre-election debates, counting (rightly) on his place of origin to carry him through with the "our son" crowd of voters (which is the vast majority in most places outside Lagos).

Nigerian politicians will only start to care about putting together proposals and going on the road to sell them when the Nigerian electorate itself starts to care about such matters.

senatordave1:
The whole of iraq and most parts of iran and even turkey are deserts dubai and abu dhabi are deserts.that a place is a desert doesnt mean its inhabited.

Gerrard59:
The areas abut to the River Nile and Mediterranean Ocean are the most populous in Egypt and the wider Middle East. Nigeria is the only country in the world where there are more people in arid regions than in coastal areas.

But hey, you love APC and Buhari. So, it is expected you don't have sense.

Gerrard59:
The 2023 presidential election is less than seven months away. There are three contenders, even though Peter Obi happens to be largely a pretender in my opinion. Tinubu has chosen Shettima to be his VP candidate, Atiku chose Okowa and Peter chose Yusuf. However, of the trio, Tinubu’s choice is the most controversial as it is a Muslim-Muslim ticket, which is very insensitive to the 100M+ Christian populace. To be honest, this choice increases Tinubu’s probability amongst the Muslim community in Nigeria, especially in the north-west and north-east. This brings me to the topic: Peter Obi cannot win in those regions as they will not vote for a Christian when there are two alternatives where Muslims hold sway. In the north-west, Tinubu has a greater probability of winning there as his combination resonates with the populace. Kwankwaso has said he has no problems with the choice he made but with his platform. This means when push comes to shove, he will step down for Tinubu so that BAT’s chances of winning Kano with a wide margin come to fruition. In the north-east where Shettima and Atiku come from, Peter Obi’s odds further decline as indigenes there will rather their sons than someone else.

In the south-west, Tinubu is expected to win. Don’t allow anyone to deceive you that Tinubu will lose his backyard. Yorubas don’t involve religion during elections as they are roughly divided across three religions amidst themselves. Tinubu is seen as a God figure and when the chips are down, the vast majority will tilt towards voting for the APC. However, there exists a section of Yoruba voters especially the Christians who might not/will not vote for the APC or alternatively abstain from voting due to the insensitivity of Tinubu’s choice considering the wanton killings the Christian community has experienced in Nigeria within the last seven years. The massacre in the Catholic Church at Owo rings a bell. To these people, alternatives exist in Atiku and Peter but here is it: due to what I cannot describe as the rivalry between Igbos and Yorubas, the vast majority of these Yoruba Christians will not vote for an Igbo man. They will/might be shamed, mocked at or derided or whatever, but they won’t vote for Peter Obi and/or rather cast their votes for Atiku. On the other hand, Yoruba Muslims will never vote for an Igbo man, certainly not when an illustrious son of theirs has a strong likelihood of becoming the president.

In the north-central, Tinubu’s prospects are pretty significant as people, especially the Muslims in Kwara will vote for him. The same thing in Nasarrawa, Kogi, and Niger especially as the vast majority of people in IDP camps are Christians. Benue, for instance, has one of the highest concentrations of IDPs thereby making them unqualified to vote. His chances in Plateau and Benue are very low but APC’s structures there can deliver the minimum requirement of 25% to scale through. In the south-south and south-east, Tinubu’s chances are extremely low considering he never campaigned in the south-east and only campaigned in Delta and Cross River states in the south-south during the APC presidential primaries. Effectively, he believes he won’t win in those regions, and rightfully so. In fact, I predict that Tinubu will not campaign during the campaign season in any of the south-eastern states and only in Cross River considering the influence of Okowa in Delta. He might substitute Delta with Akwa Ibom but that is it, just two states in the south-south and none in the south-east. The south-south and south-east together are home to the vast majority of Christians in Nigeria. They will not be receptive to a Muslim-Muslim presidency.

jameshankss:
Anambra State Governor, Professor Chukwuma Soludo, has said he is sure the candidate of Labour Party (LP), Mr Peter Obi, would lose the 2023 presidential election. Soludo said he would not submit to the bullying of Obi’s supporters, who recently descended on him for addressing issues in the state.

The governor made the comments in a lengthy write-up personally authored, with the title, “History Beckons, and I Will Not Be Silent (Part 1).”

Soludo said Obi was inadvertently making the pathway to victory much easier for the presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, and at the same time, toying with the destiny of millions of Ndigbo.

But the chief spokesperson for the Labour Party Presidential Campaign, Yunusa Tanko, accused Soludo of being sponsored by some unknown persons to weaken the base of the party in the South-east.

The former CBN governor had been under intense attack for close to a week for dismissing Obi’s investment in the state as amounting to nothing, during a television interview.

Soludo said in the write-up, “My attention has been drawn to some of the tirades on social media following my frank response during an interview on Channels TV regarding the ‘investments’ Mr. Peter Obi claimed to have made with Anambra State revenues.

“Sadly, several of the comments left the issue of the interview to probe or suggest motives, inferred from my response on ‘investment’ that I am opposed to Peter Obi’s ambition and, therefore, committed a ‘crime’ for which the punishment is internecine abuse and harassment, even to my family.

“Everyone knows that I don’t follow the winds or one to succumb to bullies, or shy away from a good fight especially, when weighty matters of principles and future of the people are involved.”

Soludo said he had urged Obi to return to his former party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), to actualise his presidential bid. He added that he had always told the LP candidate to his face that he was not capable of winning the 2023 presidential election, especially, under LP, which had neither a councillor nor a local government chairman.

Soludo said Obi was not just his friend, but also his brother, but despite that, they have their political differences.

He stated, “For full disclosure, let me state that Peter Obi and I are not just friends, we call ourselves ‘brothers’. But we have political differences: he left APGA for PDP after his tenure as governor, while I have remained in APGA since 2013.

“During the last two governorship elections in Anambra in 2017 and 2021, he led the PDP campaigns but APGA won landslide in both elections. By the way, in 2016, he visited and proposed that I defect to PDP and contest the 2017 election against the incumbent Willie Obiano, but I declined.

“After my victory in November 2021, he called to congratulate me, as I did to him in 2010. That is the Anambra way: we fight fiercely during campaigns but share drinks at the next social events. After all, it was the Great Zik of Africa, who taught us that in politics, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies but only permanent interests.”

Arguing that Obi’s presidential bid would only work in favour of Tinubu, Soludo said, “Indeed, if I were Asiwaju Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading one of the departments of his campaign, because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory much easier by indirectly pulling down PDP.”

Obi, according to Soludo, would only deplete the votes of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and pave the path for an APC victory.

He stated, “The current fleeting frenzy, if not checked, will cost Ndigbo dearly for years. The South-east has the lowest number of votes of any region, but it is also the only region where the presidential race might be a four-way race (it is a two-way race in the other five regions) thereby, ensuring that our votes won’t count in the making of the next president of Nigeria.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2022/11/15/soludo-i-wont-succumb-to-bullies-obi-knows-he-cant-win/