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Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist - Politics - Nairaland

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Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 6:12am On Jul 10, 2017
https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/06/economist-explains-6

NIGERIA is Africa’s most populous country, a designation it wears with pride. It had more than 182m citizens in 2015, according to the World Bank, and is poised to have the world’s third-largest population, behind India and China, by 2050. But that figure and the extrapolation are based on Nigeria’s 2006 census, which was probably exaggerated. Parliamentary seats and central government money are handed out to states based on population, giving politicians an incentive to inflate the numbers. In 2013 the head of the National Population Commission (NPC), Festus Odimegwu, said that neither the 2006 census nor any previous one had been accurate. He resigned soon after (the then-government said he was fired).

Counting Nigerians has caused controversy since the colonial era. The country was stitched together from two British colonies: a largely Christian south and a Muslim-dominated north. In the lead-up to independence in 1960, the British were accused by southerners of manufacturing a majority in the north, which they were thought to favour. In 1962 unofficial census figures showed population increases in some south-eastern areas of as high as 200% in a decade. The full data were never published and northern leaders held a recount, which duly showed they had retained their majority (their region had apparently grown by 84%, rather than the originally estimated 30%). This politicking led to coups, the attempted secession of what was then known as the Eastern Region and a civil war.

cont.d below.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 6:12am On Jul 10, 2017
The north-south divide has remained salient; there is still an unwritten rule that the presidency should alternate between a northerner and a southerner. Allegations that the north has manipulated its way to a majority continue. The censuses of 1973 and 1991 were annulled. In 2006 arguments flared when 9.4m people were counted in the northern state of Kano, compared with just 9m in Lagos, the commercial capital. The Lagos state government conducted its own, technically illegal, census and came up with 17.5m (probably a vast overestimate). A new national census has been repeatedly delayed. It is now scheduled for 2018, but the NPC’s estimate that it will “gulp” 223bn naira ($708m) may mean the count is put off indefinitely.

Even by other methods, Nigeria’s population has proven tricky to pin down. Africapolis, a French-funded research project, used satellite mapping to estimate the population of towns and cities in 2010. It found several cities, mostly in the north, had hundreds of thousands fewer people than the 2006 census counted. But even those data are not entirely trustworthy: it later transpired that the researchers had underestimated urbanisation in the densely populated Niger delta. Until there is an accurate, impartial census it will be impossible to know just how many Nigerians there really are. That means government policy will not be fully anchored in reality and it will not be possible to send resources where they are most needed.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/06/economist-explains-6?zid=304&ah=e5690753dc78ce91909083042ad12e30

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 6:16am On Jul 10, 2017

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by feldido(m): 6:32am On Jul 10, 2017
This is the beginning of Nigeria's Troubles... Now I believe we need Factory Reset or Complete Flashing grin

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 6:49am On Jul 10, 2017
feldido:
This is the beginning of Nigeria's Troubles... Now I believe we need Factory Reset or Complete Flashing grin

That's why I have strong doubts when I hear about Nigeria's population figures.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by Blue3k(m): 9:18am On Jul 10, 2017
I didn't think getting population census was so hard till reading about Nigeria's dilemma.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 9:50am On Jul 10, 2017
Blue3k:
I disn't think getting population census was so hard till reading about Nigeria dilemma.

I remember my teacher who was telling us of when he was part of the 1991 census and describing to us how he observed figures being inflated. That's why for years i've never truly believed the population figures that were just being bandied around.

The solution to this nonsense is to stop revenue allocations period cos as long as money is involved there would always be an incentive to continue making up numbers.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by blackfase(m): 10:13am On Jul 10, 2017
...and some mumu idiots down south continue to support the lies of one blurdy Nigeria, continue to denigrate NK for speaking up and standing firm....


May amadioha strike you all dead!


#ogunlomapayin


#iamyorubaandsupportsipob

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by aolawale025: 10:31am On Jul 10, 2017
As long as population remains a factor for sharing revenue. We cannot have an accurate head count

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 10:59am On Jul 10, 2017
blackfase:
...and some mumu idiots down south continue to support the lies of one blurdy Nigeria, continue to denigrate NK for speaking up and standing firm....


May amadioha strike you all dead!


#ogunlomapayin


#iamyorubaandisupportsipob

And what does this have to do with the topic again?

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by BiafraIShere(m): 11:20am On Jul 10, 2017
blackfase:
...and some mumu idiots down south continue to support the lies of one blurdy Nigeria, continue to denigrate NK for speaking up and standing firm....


May amadioha strike you all dead!


#ogunlomapayin


#iamyorubaandisupportsipob
The country was obviously built on lies right from day one. What a shame, its either total resource control or balkanization. Thank God for Nnamdi Kanu, OUR MUMU DON DO!!

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 3:19pm On Jul 10, 2017
BiafraIShere:
The country was obviously built on lies right from day one. What a shame, its either total resource control or balkanization. Thank God for Nnamdi Kanu, OUR MUMU DON DO!!

Don't stress yourself man, both North and South do it. The way to stop this is to stop allocations.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by EdCure: 3:52pm On Jul 10, 2017
Nigerian census figures have always been fraudulent from day one.

Blue3k:
I disn't think getting population census was so hard till reading about Nigeria dilemma.

Nothing is ever done rightly.
Added to the lameduck savages up north, this country is grossly dysfunctional.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 6:35pm On Jul 12, 2017
EdCure:
Nigerian census figures have always been fraudulent from day one.



Nothing is ever done rightly.
Added to the lameduck savages up north, this country is grossly dysfunctional.

Dude, almost every region does it. It might be convenient to blame the North but this is a nationwide thing.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by ONYEUTALI: 6:57pm On Jul 12, 2017
HTW

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 7:14pm On Jul 12, 2017
ONYEUTALI:
This is another shameful lie that'll be busted on the faces of the Nigerian elites when Biafra goes. The North will be forced to tell themselves the truth about their population. Right now they're feeding on Southern Tax money claiming they have 70 percent of the Nigerian population.
Which other country in West Africa had more population in the North than in the South? Why was Nigeria's different? Why does International Maps show condensed population in the South and Nigerian Maps does otherwise?
It hurt me to believe ordinary Aboki has been cheating me for 57 years. Where the hell did the Illiterate North get this smartness from?

Dude every region does this for goodness sakes. It's not only the North.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by ONYEUTALI: 9:48pm On Jul 12, 2017
HTW

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 9:58pm On Jul 12, 2017
ONYEUTALI:
@davidif, you should stop being clueless and reply the questions staring you in the eyes. Which other West African Country is more populated in the North than in the South? What elements made Nigeria's case to contradict this phenomenon?

Oh, so you are one of those people who believe a sin is wrong as long as someone else is doing it meanwhile you yourself are indulging in the same thing in private abi?

Two wrongs never make a right. Wrong is wrong no matter whether it's done by you or someone else.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by Cjrane2: 10:03pm On Jul 12, 2017
Nigeria, the King of Voodoo statistics!


Believe Nigeria government statistics at your peril.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by omohayek: 10:23pm On Jul 12, 2017
I think all the arguments here about which part of the country engages in worse population padding are beside the point. Instead of looking at who is the biggest liar, why not look at why everybody is so eager to lie in the first place?

The fundamental problem is that power in Nigeria is determined by who can be most irresponsible in bringing into the world children they can't afford, or at least who is most successful in pretending to such irresponsibility. It is simply madness that states which ignore family planning, investing in female education, and other such proven methods for bringing growth rates down, are rewarded with bigger federal allocations and more voting power at election time, while any region or state that is serious about doing the sensible thing, and is honest about doing so, is punished with less money and political power. If federal allocations were changed to only match 1-1 with IGR, and INEC was given greater independence and guaranteed funding to make voting depend on verified biometric data, the previous difficulties Nigeria has had with censuses would disappear as if by magic, as the rewards for inflating population figures would no longer exist.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 11:05pm On Jul 12, 2017
omohayek:
I think all the arguments here about which part of the country engages in worse population padding are beside the point. Instead of looking at who is the biggest liar, why not look at why everybody is so eager to lie in the first place?

The fundamental problem is that power in Nigeria is determined by who can be most irresponsible in bringing into the world children they can't afford, or at least who is most successful in pretending to such irresponsibility. It is simply madness that states which ignore family planning, investing in female education, and other such proven methods for bringing growth rates down, are rewarded with bigger federal allocations and more voting power at election time, while any region or state that is serious about doing the sensible thing, and is honest about doing so, is punished with less money and political power. If federal allocations were changed to only match 1-1 with IGR, and INEC was given greater independence and guaranteed funding to make voting depend on verified biometric data, the previous difficulties Nigeria has had with censuses would disappear as if by magic, as the rewards for inflating population figures would no longer exist.

The only way to stop this nonsense is to stop allocations to every state and let everyone stand on their feet. Let the local govt raise their own revenue through local property taxes and permits. Let the states raise their own revenue via state income taxes and licenses. This way everyone would be forced to know the population of their constituents and their location. As long as allocations continue in this country, corruption would continue. This money (allocation) is what fuels the corruption in this country.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by EazyMoh(m): 11:18pm On Jul 12, 2017
Lol
The most important factor in discussing population is population density.
Go and check the population density of states in the south and those in the North and compare.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by 20CRATES(m): 2:18am On Jul 13, 2017
EazyMoh:
Lol
The most important factor in discussing population is population density.
Go and check the population density of states in the south and those in the North and compare.

Population density is a combination of two factors, population and SIZE.
Rwanda has a higher population density than Nigeria but is smaller than Nigeria in population by far, because of its small size Simply put, it is more tightly packed buy contains less people.

In case you don't know Yorubas and Hausas are both more populated than Igbos, but both have more land. The whole South East sef is just about Oyo state size plus small Jara.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by Warship: 2:38am On Jul 13, 2017
ONYEUTALI:
This is another shameful lie that'll be busted on the faces of the Nigerian elites when Biafra goes. The North will be forced to tell themselves the truth about their population. Right now they're feeding on Southern Tax money claiming they have 70 percent of the Nigerian population.
Which other country in West Africa had more population in the North than in the South? Why was Nigeria's different? Why does International Maps show condensed population in the South and Nigerian Maps does otherwise?
It hurt me to believe ordinary Aboki has been cheating me for 57 years. Where the hell did the Illiterate North get this smartness from?


As you rightly said, the world will know that Nigerian population is a fraud once the country disintegrates.


The hatred the world will have towards the North and West for inflating their figures will be unprecedented.


Time will finally set the Truth free

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 4:48am On Jul 13, 2017
Warship:



As you rightly said, the world will know that Nigerian population is a fraud once the country disintegrates.


The hatred the world will have towards the North and West for inflating their figures will be unprecedented.


Time will finally set the Truth free

Dude, I didn't create this thread to start a tribal war but to educate people. If you want to start a sectarian conflict go elsewhere.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by EazyMoh(m): 5:56am On Jul 13, 2017
20CRATES:


Population density is a combination of two factors, population and SIZE.

Rwanda has a higher population density than Nigeria but is snaller than Nigeria in population by far, because of its small size.

Sinply put, it is more tightly packed buy contains less people.
That's exactly the difference between North and South!
Virtually all southern states are denser than northern states, but the North is almost four times the size of the south (at least no one can claim they've inflated the land mass as well). So if you multiply the population density with land area, you end up with a higher population in the north.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by omohayek: 7:27am On Jul 13, 2017
davidif:


The only way to stop this nonsense is to stop allocations to every state and let everyone stand on their feet. Let the local govt raise their own revenue through local property taxes and permits. Let the states raise their own revenue via state income taxes and licenses. This way everyone would be forced to know the population of their constituents and their locations. As long as allocations continue in this country, corruption would continue. This money (allocation) is what fuwls the corruption in this country.
A nice idea, one I agree with completely in principle, but also one which stands no realistic chance of ever coming to pass. Without federal allocations, at least 33 out of 36 states would soon have to declare bankruptcy for lack of funds to keep operating. These "states" should never have been created to begin with, but now that they are here, how easy will it be to get all those governors, state legislators, administrative aides and civil servants to agree to the abolition of their government "jobs"? And if most of Nigeria's joke "states" have to go, that also means shrinking the NASS, especially the Senate, which is the last thing that chamber of thieves and rogues will ever go along with.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by Warship: 9:51am On Jul 13, 2017
davidif:


Dude, I didn't create this thread to start a tribal war but to educate people. If you want to start a sectarian conflict go elsewhere.


Your view is inconsequential


Just take note that the world don't tolerate lies


The population fraud of the North and West will incur the hatred of the world against them


Just ask the Chinese what they are facing in the intellectual world because of intellectual theft.

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by davidif: 10:23am On Jul 13, 2017
Warship:



Your view is inconsequential


Just take note that the world don't tolerate lies


The population fraud of the North and West will incur the hatred of the world against them


Just ask the Chinese what they are facing in the intellectual world because of intellectual theft.

You are talking as if the Southern states don't do the same thing or are you one of those hypocrites that looks at others transgressions without looking at yours?

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Re: Why Nobody Knows The Population Of Nigeria - The Economist by 20CRATES(m): 10:34am On Jul 13, 2017
Warship:



Your view is inconsequential


Just take note that the world don't tolerate lies


The population fraud of the North and West will incur the hatred of the world against them


Just ask the Chinese what they are facing in the intellectual world because of intellectual theft.

Stfu!
Do you think that on a normal day, Rivers state is anywbere close to Oyo state in population , as shown in the last census?

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