₦airaland Forum

AdesegunSanni89:
Don't worry just as PMB made history by defeating incumbent in 2015, he will also make history by handing over to his deputy in 2023. PMB is greater than Ojukwu and Babangida put together.

He told you dat abi? I hope you're monitoring events in Kaduna as a microcosm of buhari's thinking. Let me take ur mind back to 2015 when the initial plan was to float a muslim-muslim ticket. I hope you know its ppl like OBJ and saraki dat shut it down. Osinbajo is a child of circumstance just as Bala bantex in kd. Now they're going for a muslim-muslim ticket in kd to fulfill their initial plan. Buhari knows tinubu's electoral value and that's why he's pandering towards him for now. Let me ask you if buhari were to choose today btw osinbajo and tinubu who do you think he'll take with him to election? Don't be deceived, northern interest is not Nigeria's interest and you can't say with certainty that buhari will hand over to osinbajo

Very good

where u supposed to win soundly u win by only slim margin

dokie:
The only disappointment is kwara. The margins in bauchi and katsina is a good sign for PDP. If that's the margin the presidential elections will have then its great.

As for saraki, the man fall hand seriously. You can't be rigged out of an election if you are much more popular than your opponent. He had better go and start begging kwara people if not, he should prepare to run out of Nigeria after the elections.

But how people still vote APC is a wonder to me. I just can't understand. I was hoping that we as a people have gotten to a stage where we can start changing leaders for non performance, but it seems some people have a different idea on their political decisions.

My own na if buhari win, the first question I will ask anyone who asks me for financial assistant is: who did you vote for? If its buhari, then my money no go enter your hand because you apparently signed a pact with hardship.

Crazy Nigerians.

Your analogy is wrong mate , that means if you happen to be president one day you will only cater for those that voted for you .

PHILipu1:
I am only replying for the fun of it because I know down inside you,you know that PDP stand no chance.

We heard all this noise before Kogi,Edo,Ondo,Osun,Ekiti and even yesterday election.

After every defeat,you will shift the goal post and change the narrative.
I guess you enjoy being in the losing side.

Your party can no longer win election at the local level but you are expecting a miracle at the national level next year.

Just keep dreaming

I am enjoying your Folly. Please when Atiku is elected,be ready to hold Him accountable. That. Is the most patriotic civic duty from 29th May2019.

tuniski:
I am enjoying your Folly. Please when Atiku is elected,be ready to hold Him accountable. That. Is the most patriotic civic duty from 29th May2019.

Elected in Biafra republic?
Keep dreaming, it is allow.

Buckubuck:
My broda. This simply shows that Nigerian politics us still bounded by tribalism and not performance based. Watch some morons label you PDP etc soon. The fact is ppl like you and I voted Jonathan out due to non-performance in 2015. Unfortunately, we walked into a trap. APC have managed to change the rhetoric from performance to tribe and an anti-corruption propaganda. Ask the voters in the north why they'll vote for buhari and they tell you he no be thief. Explain to them how looting is also going on in his govt and they blame someone else for it. Simple fact is, this ppl have been primed to see anyone against buhari as a thief or anti-north. Even with Ganduje's calamity, they still find a way to pin it on kwankwaso. Can you just imagine

It is just unbelievable. The country is presently without hope.

Isuata:
@tuniski
Your premise of hiding behind data is wrong...y:
1. It is not compared to current data prevalent
2. It doesn't account for new variables as compared to 2015
3. You r not thinking pattern and you deliberately blind ursef to 2 constants:
-Buhari is incumbent
-Buhari''s support might have waned down unlike 2015 but still has almost the same cult illetrate following plus 65% of the galvanising genearly of 2015 in his corner.

If you xterise this testbed of loss to pdp as a battle and not war...do you assume that APC will not consolidate on these enemy territories they have taken?
Did you think APC''s strategy is not to carve out sizable enemy territories in order for them to look weak?
What is the pulse right now? It is dt pdp generals including the field marshal -Atiku are loosing territory in their own domain.
You are here insinuating that while they r loosing ground at HOR levels they r carving out sizable portions for governorship n presidential.
Question: who will galvanise the pple to vote during governorship n presidential? Is it not their elected reps? Elected reps with federal security might backing!
All that is even by the side.

Have you seen the distribution of the registered voters list?
Do you see how it is distributed?
This voters register gives APC the legitimate votes it needs rigged or not.
Except Atiku takes some Buhari genearly in the coming weeks to his side...he will loose money and a lot of it. He needs a better strategy team....online warriors n few capitalists won't swing votes in a socio-capitalist country like Nigeria

I Hail you. One of the most Well Thought out mention I have seen On nairaland.

Incumbency is both an asset and liability. FACT!

Buhari ran 4 times on promises and fabled integrity. He lost 3 times but won the last Time in 2015 when he rode on the political Class. He then Defeated the incumbent with all the accompanying might. Incumbency is only as potent as the conformity and loyalty of the political class. The events leading to the defeat of GEj are textbook examples take lagos and kwara as pointers. Not until the political class leadership of the two. State aligned with buhari, he never won in those states.

I quite agree with you that buhari's popularity has waned. Even though he still has the Intrumentality of state to coerce some Support of the political class like the alleged case of Apkabio. However, losing the control of NASS and defection of 3 governors erode any potency he might have garner.

The cult Followership of buhari in the north is highly overrated! These same followership has always been with him yet he lost thrice! Their votes alone cannot win him Nigerian presidency. FACT! A more curious probe of the presidential result reveals a troubling reality to #TeamBuhari thus; even at the height of Sai Baba popularity, he only managed a 2.5m+ victory margin. This in simplistic context means that a 1.251m+ votes flip is all that is needed to oust him. However, all things are not equal there has been defection across board. what we will see in 2019 is the aggregation of the net effect of these defections.

I can tell you for free the effect is net negative for Buhari. Will it be enuff to oust him? The Events of the coming weeks will reveal.

Who will galvanize the People? Poverty,hunger,job Loses,insecurity,nepotism to mention a few are deeper catalyst than any campaign. These are people's realities! The atiku. Movement is a pan Nigerian movement of discontented citizens who are sufficiently angered Enuff to take a risk on Atiku.

Atiku is not the one galavinizing the masses rather he is the beneficiary of the frustration and disenchantment of the people, just Like buhari a serial loser described by the likes of elrufai,tinubu,OBJ etc as unelectable prior to 2015.

4yrs in the Life of a nation is small but, too massive in that of individual. Many citizens are today wondering what hypnotismBuhari used on them in 2015?


2019 is simple referendum on buhari!

PHILipu1:
Elected in Biafra republic?
Keep dreaming, it is allow.

Whenever I engage anyone and he/she goes IpOB this and that, I know the person has lost it!

dokie:
What has been repaired since then? And who is boing the repair Is it babachir, ishiomole, tinubu, amaechi, ganduje, akpabio, or more recently Osinbajo?

Leave matter, all our present crop of politicians in APC or PDP (and most Nigerians) are grossly corrupt so keep that one aside. However in the midst of corruption there can be performance. Fashola was corrupt but was a nationally acclaimed performer. The problem with this admin is the combination of corruption, hypocrisy and nonperformance.

only the blinds can’t see that Nigeria is better now than ever ...

Omololu001:
I don't still understand how some people feel buhari won't win all the 7 states in the North west and 5 or 6 states in the North east, I honestly don't understand how they feel buhari will lose.

They are seeing the entire Nigeria through the glasses of Biafra, a name Portuguese called a place in Cameroon and later the Atlantic Bight.

My bros who work with Intel said to me one day that high rank political figure has milk this country at the detriment of the masses. He said in a sane society Atiku will rot in jail despite being a staff under his company. But because of the society we found ourselves in, the people who are benefiting from these individual would rather stick to what they are gaining than to speak up against them.

We are moving to one party system. hurrah!

ngbaki:
Elections are not won or lost on facebook, twitter or nairaland, they happen in the real world. We simply can't afford to go back to the era of wastefulness and vicious looting of the treasury.

no mind them, people wey go vote nor even dey nairaland.....

doctokwus:
That is 45% to PDP in a state they barely got 10% from in all previous elections.

A state that is within Atiku’s home? Bauchi is the heartland of Atiku’s North-East and next to his Adamawa.

45 percent in an LGA/Rep contest between 2 candidates from the same place and you are deluding yourself?

The reality is that;

One of the two pmb, is; Mr..integrity....ask OBJ, AU, EU, UNITED NATION & NIGERIANS1

The other Mr.Akituole....is a LOOTER per excellence...ask OBJ, USA, HALLIBURTON & 9JA for SURE!

tuniski:
I Hail you. One of the most Well Thought out mention I have seen On nairaland.

Incumbency is both an asset and liability. FACT!

Buhari ran 4 times on promises and fabled integrity. He lost 3 times but won the last Time in 2015 when he rode on the political Class. He then Defeated the incumbent with all the accompanying might. Incumbency is only as potent as the conformity and loyalty of the political class. The events leading to the defeat of GEj are textbook examples take lagos and kwara as pointers. Not until the political class leadership of the two. State aligned with buhari, he never won in those states.

I quite agree with you that buhari's popularity has waned. Even though he still has the Intrumentality of state to coerce some Support of the political class like the alleged case of Apkabio. However, losing the control of NASS and defection of 3 governors erode any potency he might have garner.

The cult Followership of buhari in the north is highly overrated! These same followership has always been with him yet he lost thrice! Their votes alone cannot win him Nigerian presidency. FACT! A more curious probe of the presidential result reveals a troubling reality to #TeamBuhari thus; even at the height of Sai Baba popularity, he only managed a 2.5m+ victory margin. This in simplistic context means that a 1.251m+ votes flip is all that is needed to oust him. However, all things are not equal there has been defection across board. what we will see in 2019 is the aggregation of the net effect of these defections.

I can tell you for free the effect is net negative for Buhari. Will it be enuff to oust him? The Events of the coming weeks will reveal.

Who will galvanize the People? Poverty,hunger,job Loses,insecurity,nepotism to mention a few are deeper catalyst than any campaign. These are people's realities! The atiku. Movement is a pan Nigerian movement of discontented citizens who are sufficiently angered Enuff to take a risk on Atiku.

Atiku is not the one galavinizing the masses rather he is the beneficiary of the frustration and disenchantment of the people, just Like buhari a serial loser described by the likes of elrufai,tinubu,OBJ etc as unelectable prior to 2015.

4yrs in the Life of a nation is small but, too massive in that of individual. Many citizens are today wondering what hypnotismBuhari used on them in 2015?


2019 is simple referendum on buhari!

The key thing you mentioned that I agree with is "the political class"
That political class was fully behind Buhari against Jonathan...the left behind in PDP at the time were not major power brokers.
The difference now is that, that political class is not fully behind Atiku neither are they fully behind Buhari. The one with the Ace of State is Buhari. The one with the Ace of surprise if he can swing majority of that political class is Atiku.
In the end, Atiku needs to swing the west in order to get lots of votes...the longterm vision of the west might not allow Atiku to be able to sway the west.
Again, you seem not to be in touch with grassroots politics, those issues you mentioned have never galvanised Nigerians to go n vote. The real voting public vote based on personalities, parties, religion, tribal resemblance and money.
Of all these factors, money is where Atiku might try but if the political class behind buhari remain loyal, money become's a shared competency of both.
Again, the political class behind Atiku,how loyal are they going to be in the following weeks?
If what I perceive is correct, then APC wants to give Atiku' generals problems of their own to face so they cannot face the war. Force them to focus on their battles n loose sight of the war. Besides,Oshiomole is a key factor I see also,I saw he's hand in Ekiti. That's a testbed for what will happen in 2019.
But like you say....2019 is going to be Interesting, in the end Nigerians will be the better for it as we edge towards political awareness n new innovative ways to get involved.

sokera:
only the blinds can’t see that Nigeria is better now than ever ...

BUHARIDEEN.

Isuata:
The key thing you mentioned that I agree with is "the political class"
That political class was fully behind Buhari against Jonathan...the left behind in PDP at the time were not major power brokers.
The difference now is that, that political class is not fully behind Atiku neither are they fully behind Buhari. The one with the Ace of State is Buhari. The one with the Ace of surprise if he can swing majority of that political class is Atiku.
In the end, Atiku needs to swing the west in order to get lots of votes...the longterm vision of the west might not allow Atiku to be able to sway the west.
Again, you seem not to be in touch with grassroots politics, those issues you mentioned have never galvanised Nigerians to go n vote. The real voting public vote based on personalities, parties, religion, tribal resemblance and money.
Of all these factors, money is where Atiku might try but if the political class behind buhari remain loyal, money become's a shared competency of both.
Again, the political class behind Atiku,how loyal are they going to be in the following weeks?
If what I perceive is correct, then APC wants to give Atiku' generals problems of their own to face so they cannot face the war. Force them to focus on their battles n loose sight of the war. Besides,Oshiomole is a key factor I see also,I saw he's hand in Ekiti. That's a testbed for what will happen in 2019.
But like you say....2019 is going to be Interesting, in the end Nigerians will be the better for it as we edge towards political awareness n new innovative ways to get involved.

Kudos.
You've said it all

dokie:
BUHARIDEEN.

for life ....

Isuata:
The key thing you mentioned that I agree with is "the political class"
That political class was fully behind Buhari against Jonathan...the left behind in PDP at the time were not major power brokers.
The difference now is that, that political class is not fully behind Atiku neither are they fully behind Buhari. The one with the Ace of State is Buhari. The one with the Ace of surprise if he can swing majority of that political class is Atiku.
In the end, Atiku needs to swing the west in order to get lots of votes...the longterm vision of the west might not allow Atiku to be able to sway the west.
Again, you seem not to be in touch with grassroots politics, those issues you mentioned have never galvanised Nigerians to go n vote. The real voting public vote based on personalities, parties, religion, tribal resemblance and money.
Of all these factors, money is where Atiku might try but if the political class behind buhari remain loyal, money become's a shared competency of both.
Again, the political class behind Atiku,how loyal are they going to be in the following weeks?
If what I perceive is correct, then APC wants to give Atiku' generals problems of their own to face so they cannot face the war. Force them to focus on their battles n loose sight of the war. Besides,Oshiomole is a key factor I see also,I saw he's hand in Ekiti. That's a testbed for what will happen in 2019.
But like you say....2019 is going to be Interesting, in the end Nigerians will be the better for it as we edge towards political awareness n new innovative ways to get involved.

The political class is firmly behind Atiku! The Seal of endorsement of the political Class has always been delivered by OBJ,he has delivered It to Atiku.


Those in govt enjoying the largesse will Sink With buhari.

Yes, ethno-religious considerations are Critical determinants of voting pattern especially amongst the conservative north. While Party affiliation and Republican Ideals drive The Votes in the SE/SS. SW is the most Liberal and therefore Most Sensitive to issues and Performance.

Below a ratio analysis of voting per region in 2015:
GMB/apc GEJ/Pdp

NC. 1.41 : 1

NE. 3.58 : 1

NW. 5.31 : 1

SE. 1 : 12.43

SS. 1 : 11.26

SW. 1.34 : 1

It is clear That 2 regions NC and SW are the Swing regions. NC has traditionally been a Pdp safe zone Till 2015. Currently They are Back to pdp's column.

The SW remains too close to call. The restructuring debate will be the determinant here.


Now the SE/sS are deeply anti Buhari and still remain so. The NE with 4:1 in. Favour of buhari is now a battleground with Atiku being from the zone. It will be fair to rate it 2.5:2.5

NW with 5:1 too Will come to 4:2.

The ethno-religiious Sensitivity of conservative NE/NW Is now being challenged by Atiku a fellow hausa-fulani/moslem.

This scenario clearly oust buhari.

However, the added weight of newly registered Voters of 14m+ is a clear Warning To buhari/apc to get Set to quit Aso rock.

The surge in voters registration is largely of disenchanted citizens who now believe in the sanctity of the Ballot. If only 50% turnout at the ratio 5:1 to vent their anger,that will blowout buhari from The villa!

Bottomline, buhari is a goner come. 2019. But, his fans will argue like #teamGEJ did in 2015 till it is too Late.