₦airaland Forum

Seun:
I think it will spread faster. Especially in June (24°C - 30°C) and July-September (23°C - 29°C) which will still be considered warm elsewhere.

Fortunately, we have enough time to put a mask on every face, and enforce good hygienic practices like washing of hands before entering any market, store, school, church, bank, etc. Enough time to ramp up our testing capabilities massively so we can isolate almost every single person who has the virus, including those who haven't experienced any symptoms of the disease. Meanwhile, our economy can continue to run so that the taxes needed to fund NCDC's aggressive efforts will continue to be paid by profitable businesses and employed workers.

i wish FG can see this ur comment, they need it urgently.

VeeVeeMyLuv:
yea thought about that too
Let's hope the disease die completely before then

You forgot after heavy rain fall we always experience heavy sunshine. Our weather knows how to compensate for cold days.

Seun:
I think it will spread faster. Especially in June (24°C - 30°C) and July-September (23°C - 29°C) which will still be considered warm elsewhere.

Fortunately, we have enough time to put a mask on every face, and enforce good hygienic practices like washing of hands before entering any market, store, school, church, bank, etc. Enough time to ramp up our testing capabilities massively so we can isolate almost every single person who has the virus, including those who haven't experienced any symptoms of the disease. Meanwhile, our economy can continue to run so that the taxes needed to fund NCDC's aggressive efforts will continue to be paid by profitable businesses and employed workers.

Nigerian government don't think

We all channeled our thinking in this direction in the earlier days of this virus. However since it is not proven,we need to be careful with this hypothesis. People may throw caution to the wind banking on our hot weather and that will lead to a disaster. I agree with the fact that our government need to increase the number of people tested to beat this virus. Lockdown is only a temporary measure and can create other problems.

johnmattew:
smh...u are simply lucky that u are far away.

himbo

Wetin you want do before?

The most important form of transmission is person to person. In Nigeria that would mean
Handshakes and breathing in droplets from close social or household contacts e.g travelling in the same car bus or sharing rooms offices with infected persons hence the need for isolation. Read Abba Kyari and his staff,churches a d mosques
People put their fingers in their nostrils ALL THE TIME without washing
We must remember hand temperature is similar around the world. If you don't have water to wash your hands Yawa
The issue of cold or hot weather could be an issue in indirect contact I.e touching contaminated surfaces .
We know the virus is secreted in feces so handwashing is crucial e.g FOOD Handlers
I believe that the virus would still survive our weather for a few hours on such surfaces

This is very important in our hospitals where surfaces and equipment as well as personnel can get contaminated and spread the disease to hundreds l

This could be true.
UAE for example has 1,505 cases, despite being a regular travel destination for people all over the world.

Temperature range for UAE is 26-33 degree centigrade.

I submitted a similar thread the other day but no one took me serious
https://www.nairaland.com/5764239/coronavirus-why-nigeria-not-get

I just checked Florida has over 10000 cases and Florida is quite hot now

This thing is really hitting the US
with over 300000 cases

What do you have to say about Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, known to be very cold regions yet with negligible amount of covid19 cases?

Seun:
Effect Of Temperature On COVID-19: An Unscientific Investigation.

In the early days of the Coronavirus scourge, many Nigerians believed that we wouldn't be affected because of our hot weather. Now that we're testing people, we have seen a sharp increase in the number of confirmed cases, to about 210, which is still quite low for a country with 190 million residents. However many people suspect that the virus has penetrated our society far more deeply than the NCDC statistics suggest. We've noticed that people who travelled to colder countries recently or spend most of their time in air-conditioned spaces, or their direct contacts, are massively over-represented among the confirmed cases. Is this because they are the only ones being tested, or is heat a factor?

Here is the list of the 10 countries that have the highest number of active COVID-19 cases, and their forecasted temperatures for the day:
* USA has 257,790 active cases. The temperature forecast for New York is 8°C - 15°C.
* Italy has 85,388 active cases. The temperature forecast for Rome is 7°C - 25°C.
* Spain has 77,488 active cases. The temperature forecast for Madrid is 6°C - 19°C
* Germany has 65,309 active cases. The temperature forecast for Berlin is 1°C - 12°C
* France has 61,650 active cases. The temperature forecast for Paris is 6°C - 17°C
* UK has 34,428 active cases. The temperature forecast for London is 4°C - 16°C
* Iran has 31,954 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tehran is 8°C - 19°C
* Turkey has 20,012 active cases. The temperature forecast for Istanbul is 8°C - 11°C
* Switzerland has 14,169 active cases. The temperature forecast for Geneva is 3°C - 17°C
* Netherlands has 13,986 active cases. The temperature forecast for Amsterdam is 4°C - 14°C

On average, the top ten countries with Coronavirus have a temperature forecast of 5.5 - 16.5°C. The temperature forecast for Lagos is 26°C - 34°C, and for Abuja, it's 24°C - 36°C. This is a massive, massive difference! The maximum temperature of nine of the countries above is lower than the minimum temperature of Lagos. The maximum temperature of 7 of those countries is lower than the minimum thermostat setting of most Nigerian air-conditioners (18°C).

The countries mentioned above are in Africa, Asia or Europe. What about Africa? Here's our top 5:
* South Africa has 1,401 active cases. The temperature forecast for Johannesburg is 9°C - 15°C.
* Algeria has 1,004 active cases. The temperature forecast for Algiers is 9°C - 17°C.
* Egypt has 703 active cases. The temperature forecast for Cairo is 24°C - 34°C.¹
* Tunisia has 472 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tunis is 8°C - 17°C.
* Burkina Faso has 236 active cases. The temperature forecast for Ouagadougou is 28°C - 43°C. ^1
1 The Egypt data is misleading because the their average temperature last month was 11.6°C to 26°C, but Burkina Faso is a legitimate outlier; the country is much hotter than Nigeria.

The above data, in spite of the outlier, is enough to convince me that the Coronavirus likes cold weather and probably spreads faster in cold places, such as air-conditioned cars, offices, and homes. This, apart from the lack of testing, may explain why we are yet to see as many cases of transmission outside the circles of travellers and the rich and powerful in Nigeria as expected. It is consistent with what we know about other respiratory illnesses, and why countries like the US expect the disease to slow down in their summer season (starting from June).

When I see videos of Lagos officials spraying open areas e.g. roads & sidewalks in Lagos, I have to laugh, because I strongly suspect that, if they actually bothered to test for the presence of the virus on those surfaces, they'd find nothing at all because the sun already sterilized them.

Knowing that the virus hates our hot temperature gives me hope. If a cold country like South Korea (0°C -13°C forecast for today) could beat the virus without destroying their economy by imposing a total lockdown, a constantly hot country like Nigeria could do much better if we used the same tactics. We need to start testing people who have had close contact with confirmed cases before they show symptoms. We also need to enforce universal wearing of face-masks and social distancing everywhere, which in itself may even be sufficient to end the virus.

May your days be bright and hot. May your air-conditioners be off and your windows wide open (to get rid of aerosolized droplets). Cheers.

PS: I always make a lot of mistakes when I post long articles, so if you spot any errors, omissions, or false statements, please correct me.

What we hav bn sayin since that cold climate spreads this virus. Pls unlock d lockdown let ppl go and hussle for daily bread.
WHITE MAN WHILE NEVA TELL YOU BLACK WHAT FAVOURS YOU,TILL FIGURE IT OUT YA SEF.

Erediauwa:
Dear Seun Osewa,



What are you giving back to your esteemed members this period?


We all know that it is not the best of times for everyone, and I will suggest you show some appreciation and some act of kindness to members of this forum who are in need.




God bless Nairaland.

Jason.

. Oga Seun abeg look into this matter. guys are really going through deep shit right now.. Even Baba Lala fit do something, no b only to dey push snake threads go FP... show some love guys...

nickvanilla:
Good points Seun.

Most of these corona viruses thrive in cold climates.

Recently, someone wrote an article (which appeared on FP) that about half a million Nigerians died during the Spanish Flu Pandemic. That's a lie.

Check Wikipedia & other sources, in the whole of Africa, there were no more than 450,000 deaths.

History is going to repeat itself. Just watch and see.

So whats the difference between "about 5 mil" and 450 000,huh??

Seun:
I think it will spread faster. Especially in June (24°C - 30°C) and July-September (23°C - 29°C) which will still be considered warm elsewhere.

Fortunately, we have enough time to put a mask on every face, and enforce good hygienic practices like washing of hands before entering any market, store, school, church, bank, etc. Enough time to ramp up our testing capabilities massively so we can isolate almost every single person who has the virus, including those who haven't experienced any symptoms of the disease. Meanwhile, our economy can continue to run so that the taxes needed to fund NCDC's aggressive efforts will continue to be paid by profitable businesses and employed workers.

Bros please run for President someday, if you can manage nairaland like this, how much more Nigeria?


Try and run for president, your knowledge is bliss

Seun:
Effect Of Temperature On COVID-19: An Unscientific Investigation.

In the early days of the Coronavirus scourge, many Nigerians believed that we wouldn't be affected because of our hot weather. Now that we're testing people, we have seen a sharp increase in the number of confirmed cases, to about 210, which is still quite low for a country with 190 million residents. However many people suspect that the virus has penetrated our society far more deeply than the NCDC statistics suggest. We've noticed that people who travelled to colder countries recently or spend most of their time in air-conditioned spaces, or their direct contacts, are massively over-represented among the confirmed cases. Is this because they are the only ones being tested, or is heat a factor?

Here is the list of the 10 countries that have the highest number of active COVID-19 cases, and their forecasted temperatures for the day:
* USA has 257,790 active cases. The temperature forecast for New York is 8°C - 15°C.
* Italy has 85,388 active cases. The temperature forecast for Rome is 7°C - 25°C.
* Spain has 77,488 active cases. The temperature forecast for Madrid is 6°C - 19°C
* Germany has 65,309 active cases. The temperature forecast for Berlin is 1°C - 12°C
* France has 61,650 active cases. The temperature forecast for Paris is 6°C - 17°C
* UK has 34,428 active cases. The temperature forecast for London is 4°C - 16°C
* Iran has 31,954 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tehran is 8°C - 19°C
* Turkey has 20,012 active cases. The temperature forecast for Istanbul is 8°C - 11°C
* Switzerland has 14,169 active cases. The temperature forecast for Geneva is 3°C - 17°C
* Netherlands has 13,986 active cases. The temperature forecast for Amsterdam is 4°C - 14°C

On average, the top ten countries with Coronavirus have a temperature forecast of 5.5 - 16.5°C. The temperature forecast for Lagos is 26°C - 34°C, and for Abuja, it's 24°C - 36°C. This is a massive, massive difference! The maximum temperature of nine of the countries above is lower than the minimum temperature of Lagos. The maximum temperature of 7 of those countries is lower than the minimum thermostat setting of most Nigerian air-conditioners (18°C).

The countries mentioned above are in Africa, Asia or Europe. What about Africa? Here's our top 5:
* South Africa has 1,401 active cases. The temperature forecast for Johannesburg is 9°C - 15°C.
* Algeria has 1,004 active cases. The temperature forecast for Algiers is 9°C - 17°C.
* Egypt has 703 active cases. The temperature forecast for Cairo is 24°C - 34°C.¹
* Tunisia has 472 active cases. The temperature forecast for Tunis is 8°C - 17°C.
* Burkina Faso has 236 active cases. The temperature forecast for Ouagadougou is 28°C - 43°C. ^1
1 The Egypt data is misleading because the their average temperature last month was 11.6°C to 26°C, but Burkina Faso is a legitimate outlier; the country is much hotter than Nigeria.

The above data, in spite of the outlier, is enough to convince me that the Coronavirus likes cold weather and probably spreads faster in cold places, such as air-conditioned cars, offices, and homes. This, apart from the lack of testing, may explain why we are yet to see as many cases of transmission outside the circles of travellers and the rich and powerful in Nigeria as expected. It is consistent with what we know about other respiratory illnesses, and why countries like the US expect the disease to slow down in their summer season (starting from June).

When I see videos of Lagos officials spraying open areas e.g. roads & sidewalks in Lagos, I have to laugh, because I strongly suspect that, if they actually bothered to test for the presence of the virus on those surfaces, they'd find nothing at all because the sun already sterilized them.

Knowing that the virus hates our hot temperature gives me hope. If a cold country like South Korea (0°C -13°C forecast for today) could beat the virus without destroying their economy by imposing a total lockdown, a constantly hot country like Nigeria could do much better if we used the same tactics. We need to start testing people who have had close contact with confirmed cases before they show symptoms. We also need to enforce universal wearing of face-masks and social distancing everywhere, which in itself may even be sufficient to end the virus.

May your days be bright and hot. May your air-conditioners be off and your windows wide open (to get rid of aerosolized droplets). Cheers.

PS: I always make a lot of mistakes when I post long articles, so if you spot any errors, omissions, or false statements, please correct me.

Seun, your note on the USA is somewhat misleading (For lack of a better word to use). I believe the reason for the insane New York figure is because it is a densely populated city which is very unclean. Anyone that's been to New York will tell you this. It has nothing to do with the temperature.

By the way, Florida also has quite high figures (11,545) with temperatures between 27C to 32C at the moment.

Population density and hygiene aside, other factors leading to the huge numbers include the availability of testing and, most importantly, the parameters that dictate who gets tested. For example, in South Korea they are able to test 90k people a day which equates to more cases identified. In Nigeria we probably only have the capacity to test 1000 a day which leads to fewer cases identified. On top of that, there's the criteria for testing which feeds into who gets tested. In Nigeria, one of the key factors is that you need to have returned from overseas and showing symptoms before being tested; or you must have a proven connectIon with someone who tested positive. Therefore, a simple Nigerian man who caught the virus from a returnee by chance (say in a market) could have the virus and be showing symptoms but, because he never travelled, he won't be tested. In the UK however, once you have a fever and dry cough you WILL get tested. This criteria, coupled with their high testing rate, means that the numbers would far be higher than places like Nigeria.


Edit: confirmation we only carry out 1,500 tests a day.

https://qz.com/africa/1832066/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-south-africa-leads-continent/

Georgia in the US has more than 6000
Louisana has more than 12000

Both are in the south and quite hot now
What is not clear is why the US is so badly hit
300000 cases
That would be an apocalypse in Nigeria

We should not congratulate ourselves just yet. We ought not to be oblivious of the behavior of viruses, especially novel and terminal ones like this, for they tend to mutate.
Even the HIV virus has different strains and it doesn't get inhibited by the same ARV treatment. Research has found over 60 different epidemic strains of HIV-1 in the world.
We can only hope not to see the worst of the Coronavirus, while we stick to safety protocols.

0m0nnakoda:
Georgia in the US has more than 6000
Louisana has more than 12000

Both are in the south and quite hot now
What is not clear is why the US is so badly hit
300000 cases
That would be an apocalypse in Nigeria

I have this theory that the reason the virus spreads rapidly in developed countries is because of their interconnected systems. Everyone relies on these rails, parks, the tube, trains, escalators, lift buttons, door knobs, supermarket trolleys etc. You barely can't do without these interface on a daily basis in the west.
We can't say if the citizens have a good handwashing practice too, hence the reason for the spread.

johnmattew:
u think so?


today makes it 14 days since Nigerian government closed her airspace,yet our hospitals and pharmacies aren't littered with people having flu and respiratory difficulties

And somehow you think this is due to how hot Nigeria is?

Iran has done 180000 tests of which over 50000 are positive. Iran, as you should know, is hotter than Nigeria

kramer:
Seun, your note on the USA is somewhat misleading (For lack of a better word to use). I believe the reason for the insane New York figure is because it is a densely populated city which is very unclean. Anyone that's been to New York will tell you this. It has nothing to do with the temperature.

By the way, Florida also has quite high figures (11,545) with temperatures between 27C to 32C at the moment.

Population density and hygiene aside, other factors leading to the huge numbers include the availability of testing and, most importantly, the parameters that dictate who gets tested. For example, in South Korea they are able to test 90k people a day which equates to more cases identified. In Nigeria we probably only have the capacity to test 1000 a day which leads to fewer cases identified. On top of that, there's the criteria for testing which feeds into who gets tested. In Nigeria, one of the key factors is that you need to have returned from overseas and showing symptoms before being tested; or you must have a proven connectIon with someone who tested positive. Therefore, a simple Nigerian man who caught the virus from a returnee by chance (say in a market) could have the virus and be showing symptoms but, because he never travelled, he won't be tested. In the UK however, once you have a fever and dry cough you WILL get tested. This criteria, coupled with their high testing rate, means that the numbers would far be higher than places like Nigeria.


Edit: confirmation we only carry out 1,500 tests a day.

https://qz.com/africa/1832066/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-in-south-africa-leads-continent/

According to one of these videos, recorded by the Israeli prime Minister, the virus truly may have been out there undetected by the general populace, but immunity is being built. Our immune system in Africa is one of a kind. Eventually the larger populace may become immune overtime. These are all theories anyway.. We never can be too sure

0m0nnakoda:
Georgia in the US has more than 6000
Louisana has more than 12000

Both are in the south and quite hot now
What is not clear is why the US is so badly hit
300000 cases
That would be an apocalypse in Nigeria

US is so badly hit with 300k cases because they have done almost 2 million tests. No other country comes close.

In the words of Fela,"Africa hot I like am like that". Lesson:Let's love the weather God gave us in Africa rather than craving for snow from winter in other parts of the world, Diaspora is not like home.

maklelemakukula:
US is so badly hit with 300k cases because they have done almost 2 million tests. No other country comes close.

That alone does not explain it
I don't know where you got that figure from and I doubt it . Do you have a source?
when you say no other country country come close it makes no sense. Does every country have the same population?

There must be a clinical reason to test.

Fact is more people are also dying in the US than anywhere

0m0nnakoda:
That alone does not explain it
I don't know where you got that figure from and I doubt it . Do you have a source?
when you say no other country country come close it makes no sense. Does every country have the same population?

There must be a clinical reason to test.

Fact is more people are also dying in the US than anywhere

I have a source.

USA has done almost twice as much tests as any other country in the world. If you say this makes no sense, then na you sabi.

There are countries whose population is almost three times as much as USA but don't come close in terms of tests done.

A country with zero tests has zero coronavirus

How are more people dying in USA ?

maklelemakukula:
I have a source.

USA has done almost twice as much tests as any other country in the world. If you say this makes no sense, then na you sabi.

There are countries whose population is almost there times as much as USA but don't come close in terms of tests done.

A country with zero tests has zero coronavirus

Let us assume that is true
You said they have more cases BECAUSE they tested more.That makes no sense

The issue is how many tests have been done per capita
For every 1 million people how many tests have been conducted
The US is about 5000 compare to 20000 for UAE 10000 for Germany 8000 for Canada 19000 for Norway 64000 for Iceland

It is important to understand the statistics and what they mean and not misrepresent them.
In terms of testing capacity in the rich countries the US is way behind.

The US is testing more overall because it has more cases and it has a high population compared to Bahrain or UAE which are both doing over 20000 per million
It does not have more cases because it tests more
The US is not mass testing. It tests based on suspicion.

We do more tests for Malaria in Nigeria than Sweden by your logic if they did more tests they would discover more malaria cases

I believe so

Hope our religious leaders eg AJS,DADDY GO,OYEDEPO will not use hotness as their next permutation? Ok to seun thanks (unscientific) 339 likes,tell them to critisize with some facts. (africans unintelligent). All continent in the world is affected with covid 19 exept the coldest one (ANTARCTICA) WHY?. The cooldest regions in the world NEPAL,SIBERIA,ALASAKA has no covid 19 Case. Why?. WHO added social distancing because sepration is needed to stop the virus, it is contagious. In Europe over 60000 flights,US over 40000 Flghts cancelled. No case in North korea, who goes there kwanu? Africa has the lowest inbound continental flights, you know why? Who comes here. The virus trives on people's movement.The world is still monitoring the virus please, some of the facts you raised may be on their table ( SCIENCE). That is why they FDA told trump it may take up to 2021 febuary. Time is our enemy here. (make una oo crusify me if some points are not correct).

matrixme:
According to one of these videos, recorded by the Israeli prime Minister, the virus truly may have been out there undetected by the general populace, but immunity is being built. Our immune system in Africa is one of a kind. Eventually the larger populace may become immune overtime. These are all theories anyway.. We never can be too sure

Not a theory guy, have you heard about the world (HERD IMMUNITY)? Brazil want to use that style but WHO is kicking against it because yov knowlngly allow some people to die while others build immunity to the virus. The brazillian presedent is under fire now for crime against humanity. They might immpeach him and move to hague for trial.

I'm still learning anyway...

Seun:
Effect Of Temperature On COVID-19: An Unscientific Investigation.

...
* Burkina Faso has 236 active cases. The temperature forecast for Ouagadougou is 28°C - 43°C. ^1
1 The Egypt data is misleading because the their average temperature last month was 11.6°C to 26°C, but Burkina Faso is a legitimate outlier; the country is much hotter than Nigeria.

The above data, in spite of the outlier, is enough to convince me that the [b]Coronavirus likes cold weather and probably spreads faster in cold places, such as air-conditioned cars, offices, and homes.
...[/b]

Seun, I appreciate the thought you've put into this, and the time and effort you've taken to outline your hypothesis. However, outliers must be accounted for, as they have much to tell us. Their extenuating circumstances can confirm or debunk our theories. We need to find out what it is that makes Burkina Faso, with its hot temperatures, part of the group. Is it people who have travelled back from foreign countries who are affected? Is it people who sit in air-conditioned offices all day? Or is it ordinary market women and commercial motorcyclists, out in the hot sun all day and never out of the country? These are important considerations which will have a big effect on your theory!

OGA 4 pple have died from it in Nigeria plus d fact DAT der re many covert and unreported cases.....I taught u pple said it can't exist in Nigeria DAT d heat will kill it while as of now we have 214 confirmed cases n counting

legalwealth:
[color=#0000ff]Hmm! !!

But some were saying that coronavirus is not affected by but this seems to have proven them wrong.[/color]