₦airaland Forum

Godlylifeoneart:
WE ARE NOT ALONE.
JUST LIKE THAT, MY PORTFOLIO LOST Millions
The numbers don't lie. At the end of February, my portfolio was moderately green fast and forward, at the end of business day on 31st March, I had lost over N15, 000,000. I have refused to open my portfolio in April.
My inner mind kept telling me, this investing thing clearly doesn’t work. Financial freedom is a total pipe dream.
Right, is this the time to give up?
No no, no no
What is the next strategy? do nothing in spite of the gloom and doom.
Despite everything that has happened, all hope is not lost.You are not alone. We are all nursing our wounds silently.
Pretty much anyone who ha nos any sort of investment has taken strain. It’s pretty normal to be feeling stressed, overwhelmed and a little helpless. The natural human reaction is to want to do something.
But the best thing you can do is nothing!
Don’t change anything – stick to your investment plan and keep buying what you would have bought.
Everyday is another day, which means I buy the same equities I always buy.
The market being down just means I get the exact same stocks at a much better price.
For those of you still in the asset accumulation phase of their investing, the market is presenting us with a fantastic opportunity to pick up some great long term investments at some ridiculously cheap prices. What a time to be alive!
Buying when prices are as beaten down as they are now might go against every gut feeling you have, but I believe that it is absolutely the best thing you can do.
Why?
The money that you invest now is in the running for some stellar returns over the next few years.
This cannot be the end of Nigeria.
Buhari will surely leave Aso rock one day, covid will equally disappear, oil price will rebound.
The fundamentally sound companies will return to profitability and shares price will rise.
Opportunities like we have now don’t come around often, so try make use of it. Do whatever it is you need to do to keep buying and stick to your investment plan – even if that means closing your eyes when clicking the buy button.
Perhaps, this is the best time to borrow money to invest in fundamentally sound equities.

eziokwunwoko:
Sirs Emmanuelewumi and onegentleguy Good evening: I have this question for your answers, plz reply me. I have studied the financial report of ETI for 5 years, they have made profit but have never paid dividend since 2015, reason capital preservation. I want to buy the stock for capital appreciation. I am waiting for the price to drop from 3.90 to 2.50 and hoping that 2020( q1,q2,Q3,q4) results will be better. Should I invest at that price.

meshpips:
I will give you 10 such recommendstions and they all will be correct if you agree to post a picture of you kneeling down with a cardboard on which "I am sorry" is written after the trades work.

If you dare me, accept the challenge and I will put you to shame!

meshpips:
Na the biafran I want.

I will like to see how stupid he will be looking with the cardboard in hand.

Shebi him mouth dey sharp?

emmasoft:
Registrars who are in charge of paying dividend follows your CHN record. If you have one CHN with multiple cscs number, it will not affect dividend payment provided you have your mandate and your specimen signature with them.

TLAX:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29525_CAP_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2020.pdf

For the first time in many years (at least, back to 2013 where i stopped checking) Chemical and Allied Plc will not be paying a dividend. The official reason given for this in the company's financial statements was "Economic Uncertainties related t the Corona Virus". The financial result itself was not bad in view of economic realities as the company recorder per share earnings of N2.49 for 2019 compared to N2.90 for 2018. In 2018 they paid N2.90 as dividend meaning everything earned was paid out. Investors should watch this space because since then, ownership of parent UACN has changed hands to Themis Capital, and this could signal a change in group dividend policy at least for the short term.

In the short to medium term what are the options open to Themis Capital for its corporate structure re-especially in view of the challenged rights issue for UPDC with fate still unknown:

1. The need to press on with the unbundling of UPDC and following tepid interest from other shareholders, they will look at options of taking up these rights rather than have the exercise fail. What this means is that Themis will be cash hungry and there could be a second phase of the unbundling or this first phase may be delayed for longer till there is a clear way forward for getting UPDC off their portfolio.

2. Expect more corporate restructure especially in their Chemical business. They currently own 51.4% of CAP and 51% of Portland Paints. Both are in same line of business but while CAP is an industry leader, Portland paints has largely underperformed since they acquired shares in the company from Lafarge WAPCO in 2013. The options before them are either to sell Portland paints and raise much needed cash, or consolidate both companies. CAP has the technology, product license, selling and distribution intellect and Portland paints can benefit a lot from these. Also, UACN will be looking to optimize the cost of the expatriate CEO they recruited for CAP in August 2019 which pushed up CEO cost from N15.8 million in 2018 to N54.66 million in 2019 even though that CEO was on ground for just 5 months. The need for cash will determine the course of action within the next 18 months.

3. In August 2019, UACN sold 8% of its stake in MDS Logistics to Imperial Logistics thereby increasing Imperial's stake in the company from 49% to 57% and leaving UACN with 43%. Expect such corporate actions for the remaining group companies especially Grand Cereal and Livestock Feeds as i doubt Themis Capital will want that level of exposure to agriculture which in not there forte.

4. UNICO Closed PFA will survive and i believe as UACN transits to a Holding Company with minority but significant stakes in quoted companies, we may see them venture into financial services etc. I do not know if PenCom is disposed to changing licencing for PFAs but i expect Themis Capital to try for general PFA license which will be a viable vehicle for them to paly in the find management sector.

Caution is advised for retail investors in UACN and current group companies. The quest for cash is going to drive a lot of their actions going forward and options before Themis Capital is to take on much more leverage in balance sheet of UACN and portfolio companies or simply strip and sell off some of the assets of the companies. UACN has lots of these across the federation and beyond.

As for dividends, i do not believe UACN will pay any dividend for 2019 operations. They have ample reasons, real and imaginary not to....but time will tell.

pluto09:
ETI CAR is about 12%, below regulatory minimum of 15% for Nigeria bank with foreign operations.
This explains why the bank has not been paying dividend for some years. They need to conserve capital as much as they could.
When CAR is below regulatory minimum, one needs to be extra careful.

RabbiDoracle:
It is a regional bank. Ecobank Nigeria is a subsidiary of the parent company headquartered in Lome (Togo).

The CAR of 12% is OK for regional banks in Nigeria. 10% is the minimum for national/regional banks in Nigeria.

15% is for Nigerian banks that want international presence.

eziokwunwoko:
Sirs Emmanuelewumi and onegentleguy Good evening: I have this question for your answers, plz reply me. I have studied the financial report of ETI for 5 years, they have made profit but have never paid dividend since 2015, reason capital preservation. I want to buy the stock for capital appreciation. I am waiting for the price to drop from 3.90 to 2.50 and hoping that 2020( q1,q2,Q3,q4) results will be better. Should I invest at that price.

RabbiDoracle:
It is a regional bank. Ecobank Nigeria is a subsidiary of the parent company headquartered in Lome (Togo).

The CAR of 12% is OK for regional banks in Nigeria. 10% is the minimum for national/regional banks in Nigeria.

15% is for Nigerian banks that want international presence.

onegentleguy:
If I have to answer to everything in ur post in bits, it would be way too long, so I'll just take on some bit in between.

1st off, the 1st paragraph in ur post is not far from the truth as it highlights the present red flag in CAP.

On point No 1, u may need to do a bit more dig on ur analysis though.
U are assuming that the core investors(not only thermis) were unprepared of the possibility of a lukewarm interest from shareholders on UPDC rights, but probably forgot to note how the coy(UPDCs) current ASSET BASE, relates to the RIGHTS PRICING of N1/share(compare AGPR and NAV to EM)
And do u truly really think the core investors are or will be cash hungry over the rights. ...not sure u know them.

Hear this; There is a reason why the RECAPITALIZATION exercise preceeded(came before and not after) the RIGHTS ISSUE, and why the RESTRUCTURING will come after the RIGHTS ISSUE.

...a brief;

It's important to note that UPDCs travail was majorly the result of overburdened interest bearing loans.
Some of us forget that post rights issue, UPDC will have almost zero debt.(both short and long term) except for a circa N4B+ long term bond.(the rights takes care of this)
...and that post restructuring, UPDC will be allocated an asset with a face value equivalent to its % holding of the NAV of UPDC rights as well as other discretionary benefits.
If u understand the 2 part in bold(read btw the lines), then u'll see why the core investors(again, not just thermis) would indeed be well prepared and will gladly take up the rights.

On point No 2 and 3, well, I totally agree with u on the part in bold. I personally think that Portland paints should've been merged with CAP long before now given their similar business niche.
However, if there are further divestment, it will be because the parent coy(UACN) is looking to focus its strength on business segments where it believes it can drive better margins and not ordinarily just for the sake of needing cash. After all, any cash raised from any such move would still be ploughed back into the business. This was part of the coys roadmap to turnaround and growth.(guidance was always given on that line)

On point No 4, that PFA has been liquidated(sold)
The arm was classified as a disposal segment held for distribution to owners of the parent coy in the 2018 calendar yr.

Finally, yes like u, I also do not expect UACN to pay any dividend for the 2019 calender yr.
The coy is presently at an infection point to growth, so it makes sense to want to preserve cash for that purpose and more. ...but then again, the BoDs might still decide to pay out something no matter how small.

All said, I still maintain that UACN is a strong BUY even at the current price. ...in fact, accumulate !!
I have done so many past analysis, including a breakdown of the accrued benefits(to UACN shareholders) from the unbundling using the SOTP valuation method and other key metrics here, so not much to say.
It will do u a lot of good to take an in-depth look at UACN' FP in the last 6 quaters and compare all key lines. Dig deep(including the NTS) on all reports leading up to their 2018 YE FP and compare with every trailing quarterly report to date.

I need not tell u why the core investors will proceed to ensure the full success of UPDC rights...
or why the insiders and BoDs have at one point or the other moped up UPDC REITS and especially UACN stocks from the floor.
Their AEP for the latter(UACN) currently stands @ circa N10+.

I recently bought more after selling previous holdings at a premium.
And quite frankly, I'll be more than glad if it drops a little more so we can increase our stake.
Time will put things in their right perspective !!

RabbiDoracle:
It is a regional bank. Ecobank Nigeria is a subsidiary of the parent company headquartered in Lome (Togo).

The CAR of 12% is OK for regional banks in Nigeria. 10% is the minimum for national/regional banks in Nigeria.

15% is for Nigerian banks that want international presence.

onegentleguy:
If I have to answer to everything in ur post in bits, it would be way too long, so I'll just take on some bit in between.

1st off, the 1st paragraph in ur post is not far from the truth as it highlights the present red flag in CAP.

On point No 1, u may need to do a bit more dig on ur analysis though.
U are assuming that the core investors(not only thermis) were unprepared of the possibility of a lukewarm interest from shareholders on UPDC rights, but probably forgot to note how the coy(UPDCs) current ASSET BASE, relates to the RIGHTS PRICING of N1/share(compare AGPR and NAV to EM)
And do u truly really think the core investors are or will be cash hungry over the rights. ...not sure u know them.

Hear this; There is a reason why the RECAPITALIZATION exercise preceeded(came before and not after) the RIGHTS ISSUE, and why the RESTRUCTURING will come after the RIGHTS ISSUE.

...a brief;

It's important to note that UPDCs travail was majorly the result of overburdened interest bearing loans. ...which UACN(being the parent coy) had to 'house'.
Some of us forget that;
1) Post rights issue, UPDC will have almost zero debt.(both short and long term) except for a circa N4B+ long term bond.(the rights takes care of this)
2) Post restructuring, UPDC will be allocated an asset with a face value equivalent to its % holding of the NAV of UPDC rights as well as other discretionary benefits.
If u understand the 2 points(read btw the lines), then u'll see why the core investors(again, not just thermis) would indeed be well prepared and will gladly take up the rights.

On point No 2 and 3, well, I totally agree with u on the part in bold. I personally think that Portland paints should've been merged with CAP long before now given their similar business niche.
However, if there are any mergers or even divestment, it will be because the parent coy(UACN) is looking to focus its strength on business segments where it believes it can drive better margins and not ordinarily just for the sake of needing cash. After all, any cash raised from any such move would still be ploughed back into the business. This was part of the coys roadmap to turnaround and growth.(guidance was always given on that line)

On point No 4, that PFA has been liquidated(sold)
The arm was classified as a disposal segment held for distribution to owners of the parent coy in the 2018 calendar yr.

Finally, yes like u, I also do not expect UACN to pay any dividend for the 2019 calender yr.
The coy is presently at an inflection point to growth, so it makes sense to want to preserve cash for that purpose and more. ...but then again, the BoDs might still decide to pay out something no matter how small.

All said, I still maintain that UACN is a strong BUY even at the current price. ...in fact, accumulate !!
I have done so many past analysis, including a breakdown of the accrued benefits(to UACN shareholders) from the unbundling using the SOTP valuation method and other key metrics here, so not much to say.
It will do u a lot of good to take an in-depth look at UACN' FP in the last 6 quaters and compare all key lines. Dig deep(including the NTS) on all reports leading up to their 2018 YE FP and compare with every trailing quarterly report to date.

I need not tell u why the core investors will proceed to ensure the full success of UPDC rights...
or why the insiders and BoDs have at one point or the other moped up UPDC REITS and especially UACN stocks from the floor.
Their AEP for the latter(UACN) currently stands @ circa N10+.

I recently bought more after selling previous holdings at a premium.
And quite frankly, I'll be more than glad if it drops a little more so we can increase our stake.
Time will put things in their right perspective !!

eziokwunwoko:
Sir Onegentleguy Good evening: I have this question for your answers, plz reply me. I have studied the financial report of ETI for 5 years, they have made profit but have never paid dividend since 2015, reason capital preservation. I want to buy the stock for capital appreciation. I am waiting for the price to drop from 3.90 to 2.50 and hoping that 2020( q1,q2,Q3,q4) results will be better. Should I invest at that price FOR CAPITAL APPRECIATION

pluto09:
Is ecobank a regional bank or an international bank?
I think the regional in this instance is a bank operating in one or two regions in the country like wema bank. I stand to be corrected.

pluto09:
Is ecobank a regional bank or an international bank?
I think the regional in this instance is a bank operating in one or two regions in the country like wema bank. I stand to be corrected.

RabbiDoracle:
See the screenshot.

pluto09:
Yes, I see.
Classified as a national bank and not a regional bank.
You are right about the ecobank ( a national bank in nigeria requiring a CAR of 10% minimum)as a subsidiary of ETI which is an international bank.

Thanks for your observation.

TLAX:
Interesting perspective. The jury is still out on this one but "time" will make things clearer.

emmanuelewumi:
But what we have quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange is ETI the parent company and not Ecobank

emmanuelewumi:
But what we have quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange is ETI the parent company and not Ecobank

Godlylifeoneart:
WHY YOU MUST REMAIN INVESTED.
Quitter don't wins, winner don't quits. Leveraging is not bankruptcy. It is a strategy, provided it is done in a fundamentally sound company.
My salary is my cash flow. I will keep leveraging throughout buharinomic regime.
The same market that consumed 40% of my portfolio will surely vomit it at the right time.
This current doom in the market cannot stop me. I have benefited from the bulls in the past(Very interesting and a sweet balm to the souls, A natural tranquility, you appraised yourself and think of positive things ) , now the bear is an unwanted and uninvited, undesirable guest that is sitting on my portfolio . I will not surrender just like that. I am not alone neither are you. We are all together.
The Nigeria situation is scaring, the fall in the markets and future uncertainty has been compounded by the various rating agencies. The Fitch, the S&P and the moody. I doubt if there would be FPI for the remaining years of Buhari.
The problem with this rating agencies, once you are downgraded, it takes lot of efforts to win back investors trust.
Buhari will use the COVID-19 and crash in crude oil prices as excuses.His first 4 years failure was blamed solely on PDP misgovernance and accountability. Now the culprit is COVID-19. Why is Buhari a bad luck? Why is he a failure?
As at 31st March, Nigeria total debts stood at N27 trillion +.
We are just in April 2020,By Dec 2020,Buhari would have plunged the national debt to N35 Trillion plus.
Why should I fear? I will not, the strength of Nigeria economy is the population, the hard working people, the diaspora , ironically the population has not benefited significantly from the oil wealth which is the exclusive right of Federal Republic of the North through their Northern Nigeria Petroleum Corporation. NNPC
The big companies in Nigeria today are leveraging on future population explosion. The more the hardship today the better the prosperity in the future.
Let me remind you, during the terrible sanctions of late Abacha following the execution of Ken saro wiwa in 1995, it was really tough and hard. No one knew the country could emerged from the storm, following dz, the economy of Nigeria witnessed a boom during the Obasanjo era.
The petrodollars made some billionaires. Today, the stock market saw a boom, then came a doom, the banking collapse, the subsidy scam.
Now,the one chance government, the clueless government led by the quarantine Nigeria defacto leader.... AKA Abba kyari, the head of the cabal.
It is simple, there can be no growth in NSE ASI during Buhari 8 years. In all the time he has been priv to rule the nation, the stock market has always been his Victim. In 1983/85 same story, 2015 till date.. Same story.
We should expect the worst, sub 15000 ASI
Buhari Government is not concerned about what transpired in NSE, he forgot and there is no one to tell him that the NSE is the true window at which the world view the economy. Because he does not listen to people. His personal interest is the interest of the people. Many nations all over the world announced interest rate cut due to the pandemic caused by the Wuhan Chinese virus. Buhari said no, it has no effect on Nigeria economy, His puppet, EMEFIELE announced status quo.
What can we do?
It is simple logic, To participate in any future upswing and boom, you have to remain invested throughout the doom days of Buhari.
Timing the absolute bottom is VERY difficult for professionals, not to mention other investors without the requisite tools, information and skills at their disposal.
Even, our analysts in this forum cannot time the absolute bottom.
Ask Agbalowomeri, OGG, Chibuking81, PA Emma, and the rest of them... Lol
Here we are.,one chance government, liar Mohammed the minister of disinformation should take note.
Fellow Nairalanders, SIT TIGHT, DON'T PANIC NOR GIVE UP, REMAIN INVESTED. THE REWARD IS COMMING SOON.
One more thing, if your portfolio is heavy in banking stocks, please reduce. Buhari will never bail out any bank. One can focus more on Tech companies, pharmaceutical and health care companies, food and Agro tech companies.
Bye, enjoy your weekend and have a pleasant new week ahead.

Godlylifeoneart:
WHY YOU MUST REMAIN INVESTED.
Quitter don't wins, winner don't quits. Leveraging is not bankruptcy. It is a strategy, provided it is done in a fundamentally sound company.
My salary is my cash flow. I will keep leveraging throughout buharinomic regime.
The same market that consumed 40% of my portfolio will surely vomit it at the right time.
This current doom in the market cannot stop me. I have benefited from the bulls in the past(Very interesting and a sweet balm to the souls, A natural tranquility, you appraised yourself and think of positive things ) , now the bear is an unwanted and uninvited, undesirable guest that is sitting on my portfolio . I will not surrender just like that. I am not alone neither are you. We are all together.
The Nigeria situation is scaring, the fall in the markets and future uncertainty has been compounded by the various rating agencies. The Fitch, the S&P and the moody. I doubt if there would be FPI for the remaining years of Buhari.
The problem with this rating agencies, once you are downgraded, it takes lot of efforts to win back investors trust.
Buhari will use the COVID-19 and crash in crude oil prices as excuses.His first 4 years failure was blamed solely on PDP misgovernance and accountability. Now the culprit is COVID-19. Why is Buhari a bad luck? Why is he a failure?
As at 31st March, Nigeria total debts stood at N27 trillion +.
We are just in April 2020,By Dec 2020,Buhari would have plunged the national debt to N35 Trillion plus.
Why should I fear? I will not, the strength of Nigeria economy is the population, the hard working people, the diaspora , ironically the population has not benefited significantly from the oil wealth which is the exclusive right of Federal Republic of the North through their Northern Nigeria Petroleum Corporation. NNPC
The big companies in Nigeria today are leveraging on future population explosion. The more the hardship today the better the prosperity in the future.
Let me remind you, during the terrible sanctions of late Abacha following the execution of Ken saro wiwa in 1995, it was really tough and hard. No one knew the country could emerged from the storm, following dz, the economy of Nigeria witnessed a boom during the Obasanjo era.
The petrodollars made some billionaires. Today, the stock market saw a boom, then came a doom, the banking collapse, the subsidy scam.
Now,the one chance government, the clueless government led by the quarantine Nigeria defacto leader.... AKA Abba kyari, the head of the cabal.
It is simple, there can be no growth in NSE ASI during Buhari 8 years. In all the time he has been priv to rule the nation, the stock market has always been his Victim. In 1983/85 same story, 2015 till date.. Same story.
We should expect the worst, sub 15000 ASI
Buhari Government is not concerned about what transpired in NSE, he forgot and there is no one to tell him that the NSE is the true window at which the world view the economy. Because he does not listen to people. His personal interest is the interest of the people. Many nations all over the world announced interest rate cut due to the pandemic caused by the Wuhan Chinese virus. Buhari said no, it has no effect on Nigeria economy, His puppet, EMEFIELE announced status quo.
What can we do?
It is simple logic, To participate in any future upswing and boom, you have to remain invested throughout the doom days of Buhari.
Timing the absolute bottom is VERY difficult for professionals, not to mention other investors without the requisite tools, information and skills at their disposal.
Even, our analysts in this forum cannot time the absolute bottom.
Ask Agbalowomeri, OGG, Chibuking81, PA Emma, and the rest of them... Lol
Here we are.,one chance government, liar Mohammed the minister of disinformation should take note.
Fellow Nairalanders, SIT TIGHT, DON'T PANIC NOR GIVE UP, REMAIN INVESTED. THE REWARD IS COMMING SOON.
One more thing, if your portfolio is heavy in banking stocks, please reduce. Buhari will never bail out any bank. One can focus more on Tech companies, pharmaceutical and health care companies, food and Agro tech companies.
Bye, enjoy your weekend and have a pleasant new week ahead.