₦airaland Forum

Why You Need to Learn the Basics of Stocks Trading
https://businesspost.ng/featureoped/why-you-need-to-learn-the-basics-of-stocks-trading/

Subscription for Transcorp Hotels Rights Issue Opens
https://businesspost.ng/travel/subscription-for-transcorp-hotels-rights-issue-opens/

Afromedia Changes Financial Year-end to December 31
https://businesspost.ng/economy/afromedia-changes-financial-year-end-to-december-31/

Abbey Mortgage Bank Seeks N3.0bn Equity Funds
https://businesspost.ng/economy/abbey-mortgage-bank-seeks-n3-0bn-equity-funds/

#EndSARS: FG Blocks Fund-Raising Account, Donation Link
https://businesspost.ng/general/endsars-fg-blocks-fund-raising-account-donation-link/

FG Succumbs, Accepts Five Demands of #EndSARS Protesters
https://businesspost.ng/general/fg-succumbs-accepts-five-demands-of-endsars-protesters/

onegentleguy:
Dear @ MoneymakingOppo,
it's always best to ask questions where u find matters perplexing and not castigate others by drawing incorrect and bashful inferences.
Ur assertion on concluding that those who invest(ed) in FUGAZ can never make/book positive real return would seem an analogy that appears to "spoil a ship for a ha'porth of tar."
Aligning with the right coy(fundamental health) at the right time(technical stand) is KEY !! ...when u can do this, u will likely take back ur words and never generalize.

@ Oracle has, using a fine illustration shown u how the ROI with one of the said FUGAZ(zenith) can infact beat Fx devaluation within a specified timeframe.
But in case ur still wondering whether that ROI adjusting for inflationary cutback can deliver a net positive real return, lets do a further dig.
...a brief;
Assuming u bought GTB @ the March low of N16.70-N17 and exited @ N33, that's no less than 90% gain excluding total trx cost.
Now using the formula for Real rate of return...
(RR)= [1+nominal rate/1+inflation rate] -1
Nominal rate= 90% or 0.9, Current inflation rate= 13.22% or 0.1322
Hence RR = [1+0.9/1+0.1322] -1 ...which is approx 0.678 or 67.8%
The interpretation of this is that if u as an investor had put N2M in GTB at the entry and exit pegs cited above, ur NAV(ur networth) adjusting for all trx cost + inflation will be N3,356,000.

Now let's look @ the matter of devaluation...
If we assume an exchange rate of N360/$ in early March, which would be me been generous with figures(the NAFEX/official window rate was in reality, at a slight premium above N360 peg then), and a N450/$ rate now(again another exaggeration with figures as we are this time matching the parallel mkt rate to the official rate, if u understand what I mean)... then, that would be a 25% upside.
Now hear this;
In practice, we are also suppose to compute the real return following ur Fx revaluation gain like we did above with the coy GTB. ...'cause whether the net $ gain(ROI) from the Fx play will be spent abroad without a re-conversion to the Naira, or kept in a mattress "until thy kingdom come"(in which case ur holding period could still take a bite from it), ur Fx gain remains NORMINAL !! To compute for Real rate of return, u must also adjust it for inflation.
The only difference btw adjusting it here and doing same abroad is the chance of a higher net +RR given the much lower inflation peg in some select countries.
Hence in reality, ur ACTUAL RETURN(real return in view) will also be <N2.5M... it will actually be approx N2,141,000 if u decide to reconvert and burn the cash here in Nigeria. Now that figure is a far cry from the N2,517,000 figure as derived from GTB.

However, I'd like to be generous with the figures from revaluation gain, so lets assume that the 25% was ur real return.
By inference, assuming u decided to hedge against currency risk in early March by converting N2M of ur liquid cash to $, u would be worth N2.5M now.

Now if we decide to discount the value-loss from devaluation(to compare both asset play) by raking-off that 25% from our inflation adjusted RR of N2,356,000 playing the coy GTB, we'll have a net value(say X)= 75% of ur RR or 3/4(N2,356,000)= N2,517,000... which is still a premium(N17,000) above the devaluation peg.
By the way, I decided to exclude the cash flow accrual(dividends) gotten from playing these class of stocks.
Imagine if I had factored that in my computation. ...and quite possibly, decide to compound that cash flow by playing in the same coy or other value-driven assets before the end of the investment horizon !!
No don't compute the figures just yet... Just imagine it !!

When u do a similar estimate in FBNH and ACCESS(also part of fugaz), u'll see that these assets have returned more than a buy and wait Fx player can derive within the period under consideration.(March 2020 to date)
Aside the period specified, there are also several past instances where these class of coys and a few others have delivered more VALUE than u probably think. But yes, there are also a few times(vey few) when things had worked the other way.(favoured Fx play ahead of investment in these coys)... but as u have now seen, it'll be very wrong to generalize !!
So my dear, its incorrect to assert that one can not book a + real return playing the FUGAZ class of stock.
Everything will usually depend on ur investment personality, strategy and goals.
But remember;
The QUALITY of the asset and the PRICE u pay for it at any given time, is everything !!

Let me leave u with this piece of Nugget to ponder on;

"In the stock market world, the real winners are those who can prioritize their TRADE SETUP ahead of the ASSET PROFILE, and a little more than the quest for REWARD.
While the 2nd may define ur INVESTING POWER, it is the 1st that gives u a BARGAINING POWER !!
...for without it, the other can only engage the market in a mere "fight" but also concede more victories to it"
~Sinclair

"If u plan well ur VISION, u will often times execute ur MISSION. But in between that planning and execution MUST come KNOWLEDGE, STRATEGY and DISERNMENT.
...otherwise u might well be 'a prisoner of war' to the stock market and the intelligent few in it."
~Sinclair

Just be humble, but diligent and committed. ...and with time, u'll get to understand the stock market better.
Selah

Wonderfully written

Stocks with new 52 week lows
Portland paints #2.00k
E tranzact #2.12k
Stock with new 52 week highs
Eterna #4.38k
Stanbic ibtc #44.00k
Fcmb #2.35k

dipoolowoo:
Afromedia Changes Financial Year-end to December 31
https://businesspost.ng/economy/afromedia-changes-financial-year-end-to-december-31/

O Lord, deliver me from Afromedia abeg. Like you did with Japaul. I have learnt. I need school fees refund.

Been trying to sell this aloku for .10k.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/31616_FBN_HOLDINGS_PLC%20FBN_HOLDINGS_NOTIFICATION_ON_ISSUANCE.pdf

What could be the profit impact for shareholders? does it present opportunity for fixed income investors?

Audacius:
O Lord, deliver me from Afromedia abeg. Like you did with Japaul. I have learnt. I need school fees refund.

Been trying to sell this aloku for .10k.

Please any information about Japaul Oil?

ucvin:
I entered UBA today @ 6.50. Hope it's a right decision or should I have waited?

Dere is no news btw now
And Nov endin..
Think you can still pick it up
At a lower price
Nov is historically bearish...

This year non be like year wen get respect for history

Willie2015:
Dere is no news btw now
And Nov endin..
Think you can still pick it up
At a lower price
Nov is historically bearish...

Good morning house, I saw an online post were it was posted that UBA traded N20 in 2018.
I need confirmation because I chey it was not correct

Intendy:
Stocks with new 52 week lows

Portland paints #2.00k

E tranzact #2.12k

Stock with new 52 week highs

Eterna #4.38k

Stanbic ibtc #44.00k

Fcmb #2.35k

Don't know what is pushing eterna oil

ojesymsym:
This year non be like year wen get respect for history

Profit takin will continue...
Bullish momentum should start coolin of gradually...
Dere will be some level of correction and stability...
How low it will get ...
I dont know... bt it will present some
Buy opportunity for those waitin to enter...
Den zoom to Santa Claus rally...
Just my thoughts...

eziokwunwoko:
Good morning house, I saw an online post were it was posted that UBA traded N20 in 2018.
I need confirmation because I chey it was not correct

No. The highest it traded in 2018 was N12.95 on February 23 of that year.

onegentleguy:
Dear @ MoneymakingOppo,
it's always best to ask questions where u find matters perplexing and not castigate others by drawing incorrect and bashful inferences.
Ur assertion on concluding that those who invest(ed) in FUGAZ can never make/book positive real return would seem an analogy that appears to "spoil a ship for a ha'porth of tar."
Aligning with the right coy(fundamental health) at the right time(technical stand) is KEY !! ...when u can do this, u will likely take back ur words and never generalize.

@ Oracle has, using a fine illustration shown u how the ROI with one of the said FUGAZ(zenith) can infact beat Fx devaluation within a specified timeframe.
But in case ur still wondering whether that ROI adjusting for inflationary cutback can deliver a net positive real return, lets do a further dig.
...a brief;
Assuming u bought GTB @ the March low of N16.70-17 and exited @ N33, that's no less than 90% gain excluding total trx cost.
Now using the formula for Real rate of return...
(RR)= [1+nominal rate/1+inflation rate] -1
Nominal rate= 90% or 0.9, Current inflation rate= 13.22% or 0.1322
Hence RR = [1+0.9/1+0.1322] -1 ...which is approx 0.678 or 67.8%
The interpretation of this is that if u as an investor had put N2M in GTB at the entry and exit pegs cited above, ur NAV(ur networth) adjusting for all trx cost + inflation will be N3,356,000.

Let's look @ the matter of devaluation...
If we assume an exchange rate of N360/$ in early March, which would be me been generous with figures(the NAFEX/official window rate was in reality, at a slight premium above N360 peg then), and a N450/$ rate now(again another exaggeration with figures as we are this time matching the parallel mkt rate to the official rate, if u understand what I mean)... then, that would be a 25% upside.
Now hear this;
In practice, we are also suppose to compute the real return post ur Fx revaluation gain like we did above with the coy GTB. ...'cause whether the net $ gain(ROI) from the Fx play will be spent abroad without a re-conversion to the Naira, or kept in a mattress "until thy kingdom come"(in which case ur holding period could still take a bite from it), ur Fx gain remains NORMINAL !! To compute for Real rate of return, u must also adjust it for inflation.
The only difference btw adjusting it here and doing same abroad is the chance of a higher net +RR given the much lower inflation peg in some select countries.
Hence in reality, ur ACTUAL RETURN(real return in view) will be <N2.5M... it will actually be approx N2,141,000 if u decide to reconvert and burn the cash here in Nigeria. Needless to say that that figure is a far cry from the N2,517,000 net RR derived from GTB.

However, I'd like to be generous with the figures from revaluation gain, so lets assume that the 25% was ur real return.
By inference, assuming u decided to hedge against currency risk in early March by converting N2M of ur liquid cash to $, u would be worth N2.5M now.

Now if we decide to discount the value-loss from devaluation(to compare both asset play) by raking-off that 25% from our inflation adjusted RR of N2,356,000 playing the coy GTB, we'll have a net value(say X)= 75% of ur RR or 3/4(N2,356,000)= N2,517,000... which again, is still a premium(N17,000) above the devaluation peg.
By the way, I decided to exclude the cash flow accrual(dividends) gotten from playing these class of stocks.
Imagine if I had factored that in my computation. ...and quite possibly, decide to compound that cash flow by playing in the same coy or other value-driven assets before the end of the investment horizon !!
No don't compute the figures just yet... Just imagine it !!

When u do a similar estimate in FBNH and ACCESS(also part of fugaz), u'll see that these assets have returned more than a buy and wait Fx player could derive within the period under consideration.(March 2020 to date)
Aside the period specified, there are also several past instances where these class of coys and a few others have delivered more VALUE than u probably think. But yes, there are also a few times(vey few) when things had worked the other way.(favoured Fx play ahead of investment in these coys)... but as u have now seen, it'll be very wrong to generalize !!
So my dear, its incorrect to assert that one can not book a + real return playing the FUGAZ class of stock.
Everything will usually depend on ur investment personality, strategy and goals.
But remember;
The QUALITY of the asset and the PRICE u pay for it at any given time, is everything !!

Let me leave u with this piece of Nugget to ponder on;

"In the stock market world, the real winners are those who can prioritize their TRADE SETUP ahead of the ASSET PROFILE, and a little more than the quest for REWARD.
While the 2nd may define ur INVESTING POWER, it is the 1st that gives u a BARGAINING POWER !!
...for without it, the other can only engage the market in a mere "fight" but also concede more victories to it"
~Sinclair

"If u plan well ur VISION, u will often times execute ur MISSION. But in between that planning and execution MUST come KNOWLEDGE, STRATEGY and DISERNMENT.
...otherwise u might well be 'a prisoner of war' to the stock market and the intelligent few in it."
~Sinclair

Just be humble, but diligent and committed. ...and with time, u'll get to understand the stock market better.
Selah

Your analysis is Ok within the time frame you considered.

However if you do same within any 5 year duration over the last 15 years, you'll see that you're better off in dollars than any FUGAZ.

Effect of FX devaluation should be a longer term thing more than a six months thing. If you do the same analysis 6-9 months after the 2015-2016 devaluation you'll get the same very good results. But what happened after...Lower results...Regression to the mean

The logic is that if you have almost doubled your investment within this short time, it may be generally better to book profits, sell and go away that continuing to stay because of the inevitable regression to the mean.

That of course will be different if one has any specific reason to stay on one particular stock.

Naira assets have been serial loosers compared to dollars assets. This is a reflection of the country we are in.
1984:
All share index: 100
$1: N 0.75

2020:
All share index: 28,500
$1: N390

The All share index has gained 285 times...fantastic until you see that the naira has lost 520 times!

Within this period the Dow (of course in dollar) has risen 9 times. An average US investor has likely beaten an average Nigerian stocks investor about 18 times over.

Do this same analysis form 1999 till date and you'll get the same trend.


Personally, I'm still pondering on what kind of action to take in the mid to long term.

This life I can't kill myself.

mickky22:
Please any information about Japaul Oil?

Sorry I don't follow news of companies that don't ever pay dividend. It's an indication for me not to touch a stock. JIJO doesn't work for me. If e no increase in price for sale, at least during my waiting time, if cycle of dividend comes, I should collect consolation price.

Hello guys good morning,I recently open an account with Morgan capital and they have sent the account and clearing house number to me.
Meanwhile their I-trade platform requires username and password to log I'm which was not part of the message sent to me.
How did you guys handle this.I ve sent a message to them and I ve called their customer care also,none was through.

Some folks have seen GUINNESS Q1 2021 result.

3.1m bids vs 200k.

For a company coming from a loss of N371m in their Q1 2020 results.

Their 70th AGM comes up next week Tuesday OCT 20th. So Let's hope for a BANGER!

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

PETERiCHY:
Some folks have seen GUINNESS Q1 2021 result.

3.1m bids vs 200k.

For a company coming from a loss of N371m in their Q1 2020 results.

Let's hope for a BANGER!

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

soro soke. q1 2021?but we are still in 2020 na

Dsticks47:
Kindly find the below our charges.

Do you have online transaction platform and how can i register?

My current broker charge close to 10% on sales and purchase .

naturalflow:
soro soke. q1 2021?but we are still in 2020 na

GUINNESS financial year end is June 30th.

So July to September stands as their 1st first quarter...

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

ojeysky:
Don't know what is pushing eterna oil

Looks like the volume of bids at max is weakening.

Maybe it is time to press the long awaited sell button?

PETERiCHY:
Some folks have seen GUINNESS Q1 2021 result.

3.1m bids vs 200k.

For a company coming from a loss of N371m in their Q1 2020 results.

Their 70th AGM comes up next week Tuesday OCT 20th. So Let's hope for a BANGER!

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

net bid but weak at the same time though

olayinmol:
Do you have online transaction platform and how can i register?

My current broker charge close to 10% on sales and purchase .

Yes sir.
We have 2 apps that gives you Direct access to the floor.
IOFS
ZIING

You can also use the easy-trade platform.

And lastly you can also use our USSD code Dial *5678*4# to easily buy and sell stocks.

To open an account kindly use the link on my signature.

Currently going on....

https://11plc.com/11plc-agm-live-stream-page/

onegentleguy:
Dear @ MoneymakingOppo,
Ur assertion on concluding that those who invest(ed) in FUGAZ can never make/book positive real return would seem an analogy that appears to "spoil a ship for a ha'porth of tar."
Aligning with the right coy(fundamental health) at the right time(technical stand) is KEY !! ...when u can do this, u will likely take back ur words and never generalize.

When u do a similar estimate in FBNH and ACCESS(also part of fugaz), u'll see that these assets have returned more than a buy and wait Fx player could derive within the period under consideration.(March 2020 to date)
Aside the period specified, there are also several past instances where these class of coys and a few others have delivered more VALUE than u probably think. But yes, there are also a few times(vey few) when things had worked the other way.(favoured Fx play ahead of investment in these coys)... but as u have now seen, it'll be very wrong to generalize !!
So my dear, its incorrect to assert that one can not book a + real return playing the FUGAZ class of stock.
Everything will usually depend on ur investment personality, strategy and goals.
But remember;
The QUALITY of the asset and the PRICE u pay for it at any given time, is everything !!

Let me leave u with this piece of Nugget to ponder on;

"In the stock market world, the real winners are those who can prioritize their TRADE SETUP ahead of the ASSET PROFILE, and a little more than the quest for REWARD.
While the 2nd may define ur INVESTING POWER, it is the 1st that gives u a BARGAINING POWER !!
...for without it, the other can only engage the market in a mere "fight" but also concede more victories to it"
~Sinclair

"If u plan well ur VISION, u will often times execute ur MISSION. But in between that planning and execution MUST come KNOWLEDGE, STRATEGY and DISERNMENT.
...otherwise u might well be 'a prisoner of war' to the stock market and the intelligent few in it."
~Sinclair

Just be humble, but diligent and committed. ...and with time, u'll get to understand the stock market better.
Selah

austinkenneth:
Your analysis is Ok within the time frame you considered.

However if you do same within any 5 year duration over the last 15 years, you'll see that you're better off in dollars than any FUGAZ.

Effect of FX devaluation should be a longer term thing more than a six months thing. If you do the same analysis 6-9 months after the 2015-2016 devaluation you'll get the same very good results. But what happened after...Lower results...Regression to the mean

The logic is that if you have almost doubled your investment within this short time, it may be generally better to book profits, sell and go away that continuing to stay because of the inevitable regression to the mean.

That of course will be different if one has any specific reason to stay on one particular stock.

Naira assets have been serial loosers compared to dollars assets. This is a reflection of the country we are in.
1984:
All share index: 100
$1: N 0.75

2020:
All share index: 28,500
$1: N390

The All share index has gained 285 times...fantastic until you see that the naira has lost 520 times!

Within this period the Dow (of course in dollar) has risen 9 times. An average US investor has likely beaten an average Nigerian stocks investor about 18 times over.

Do this same analysis form 1999 till date and you'll get the same trend.


Personally, I'm still pondering on what kind of action to take in the mid to long term.

This life I can't kill myself.

The post was to tell the fellow not to generalize matters. ...it was to correct a clearly wrong impression that an equity mkt player can never book a positive real return investing in the FUGAZ class of coys.
...and not to say that playing in the Fx mkt space might not deliver a bit more sometimes.
Read the post above and look at the parts in bold coined therein.(also relate with the nuggets)
I want to believe that was also the reason for ur view in italics which reads..."The logic is that..."

There's a reason investors always play different asset instruments(equity mkt, money mkts, real estate etc) at varying timeframes of their investment life. ...it's a strategy that seeks to win through proper and effective diversification.
I am sure u personally do not rely on arbitrage gains in the Fx mkt space alone to grow ur NW as an investor.
That's part of the message I was trying to pass across to the dude.
...sure he should get the drift !!

austinkenneth:
Your analysis is Ok within the time frame you considered.

However if you do same within any 5 year duration over the last 15 years, you'll see that you're better off in dollars than any FUGAZ.

Effect of FX devaluation should be a longer term thing more than a six months thing. If you do the same analysis 6-9 months after the 2015-2016 devaluation you'll get the same very good results. But what happened after...Lower results...Regression to the mean

The logic is that if you have almost doubled your investment within this short time, it may be generally better to book profits, sell and go away that continuing to stay because of the inevitable regression to the mean.

That of course will be different if one has any specific reason to stay on one particular stock.

Naira assets have been serial loosers compared to dollars assets. This is a reflection of the country we are in.
1984:
All share index: 100
$1: N 0.75

2020:
All share index: 28,500
$1: N390

The All share index has gained 285 times...fantastic until you see that the naira has lost 520 times!

Within this period the Dow (of course in dollar) has risen 9 times. An average US investor has likely beaten an average Nigerian stocks investor about 18 times over.

Do this same analysis form 1999 till date and you'll get the same trend.


Personally, I'm still pondering on what kind of action to take in the mid to long term.

This life I can't kill myself.

ASI is an average return of all the stocks listed on NSE some stocks underperformed, while some over performed the index.

An investor who bought a duplex from LASG for 60k at Gbagada Estate in 1984, can sell same property for over N60 million in 2020 excluding the rental income earned in the last 36 years.

Although it is a wise decision to have some Eurobond and forex denominated assets for diversification

emmanuelewumi:
ASI is an average return of all the stocks listed on NSE some stocks underperformed, while some over performed the index.

An investor who bought a duplex from LASG for 60k at Gbagada Estate in 1984, can sell same property for over N60 million in 2020 excluding the rental income earned in the last 36 years.

Although it is a wise decision to have some Eurobond and forex denominated assets for diversification

pls mr Emma what the best stock brokering firm that I can trade with online , everthing is online,customer care top-notch and I can trade from any location in the world .....thanks am moving into Nse gradually..

ahiboilandgas:
pls mr Emma what the best stock brokering firm that I can trade with online , everthing is online,customer care top-notch and I can trade from any location in the world .....thanks am moving into Nse gradually..

Am with FBNQuest securities. It’s been great so far.

Audacius:
Sorry I don't follow news of companies that don't ever pay dividend. It's an indication for me not to touch a stock. JIJO doesn't work for me. If e no increase in price for sale, at least during my waiting time, if cycle of dividend comes, I should collect consolation price.

Thats actually a good strategy

talk2tonie:
Am with FBNQuest securities. It’s been great so far.

That means they have improved niyen, used to have an account with them which I later transferred to FSDH Securities

ahiboilandgas:
pls mr Emma what the best stock brokering firm that I can trade with online , everthing is online,customer care top-notch and I can trade from any location in the world .....thanks am moving into Nse gradually..

I think Morgan Capital is popular here, although I don't have an account with them

emmanuelewumi:
I think Morgan Capital is popular here, although I don't have an account with them

which do u use?......

ahiboilandgas:
which do u use?......

United Capital

FSDH Securities

Investment One financial services