yMcy56:
WAPCO:. 29.60! Up with +N2.....

UCAP: On its way to N6!
Seems some insiders have sighted the result........we wait and see......

J-GOLD: Full bid.......
cc: @Peterichy

FBNH: 7.60!
Dangsugar: N20.50......
JBerger: Sighted above 20! @20.60 now!

To the promised land....

onegentleguy:
Shuhh!! ...not too loud!!
Some persons will be shocked at what will play out in that sector.

Regards

Thanks sir for the detailed explanation on the UAC-Prop.
The Custodian boss didn't go there to play I blvd, he meant serious biz.

As for insurance, in as much as recapitalization is still on course, then the sector is not done with.

samguru:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/32241_UNION_BANK_OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20RESPONSE_TO_ONLINE_PUBLICATI.pdf


Those scrambling for Union Bank shares, this is for you

Tell us....good or poor

9free:
To the promised land........

Stock for the big bosses...

......Peter is still waiting at N10 Katanga bargain junction.....

yMcy56:

Thanks sir for the detailed explanation on the UAC-Prop.
The Custodian boss didn't go there for play I blvd, he meant serious biz.

As for insurance, in as much as recapitalization is still on course, then the sector is not done with.

I de tell you

He doesn't want stories with his huge funds he pumped into UPDC.

ukay2:


Tell us....good or poor

Atlas Mara is not selling her stake in Union Bank neither Access Bank is planning to buy Atlas mara stake

onegentleguy:


The news is simple…

Mr Wole Oshin, who doubles as the Chairman, founder and Group Managing Director of the Custodian Investment Group has taken over from the past chairman of the board of UAC-PROP, Mr Babatunde Kasali.
The new BOD chair, Mr Wole was initially appointed as a Exec director of the board of UAC-PROP ealier this month.

Inference:
This comfirms the shift in control in the affairs of UACN-PROP from UACN to the CUSTODIAN GROUP and lays a strong plausibility that UACN may have completely divested its stake from UAC-PROP... so yes, the mkt cross deal from last week could’ve been it.

UAC-PROP? Well a strong coy with tested management is taken over control... so things may likely turnaround from here going forward.
However, while today's low of 70k isn't that expensive, I’d prefer to see their YE 2020 FP to adjudge the degree of their financial health before putting things in proper perspective.
For all we know, they(custodian), HNI or other minority investors may be the ones selling off/reducing their stake(presumably quite heavy) in UAC-PROP post allotment of UPDC-REIT, while increasing their holding UPDC-REIT.
In the short term, it makes sense to think that they'd be better off holding more of the latter(updc-reit) than the former.(uac-prop)

UPDC-REIT? Its a buy @ any price <N6(RR margin in view)
UACN? An even better BUY @ the present mkt price.

Disclaimer: Before u act on this, pls do well to read through my signature below.
My advise? Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

yMcy56:

Thanks sir for the detailed explanation on the UAC-Prop.
The Custodian boss didn't go there to play I blvd, he meant serious biz.

As for insurance, in as much as recapitalization is still on course, then the sector is not done with.

Ur welcome dear!!
See the slightly modified post above.

Regards

onegentleguy:
Ur welcome dear!!
See the slightly modified post above.
Regards

The modification is well noted sir.
......but I thought UAC-Prop stand to also benefit more in the short or long run as well.
UPDC-REIT is also into real estate management and the coy is doing fine........pardon my naivety.
We see how the turn around goes......

yMcy56:

The modification is well noted sir.
......but I thought UAC-Prop stand to also benefit more in the short or long run as well.
UPDC-REIT is also into real estate management and the coy is doing fine........pardon my naivety.
We see how the turn around goes......

On the part in bold...
In the short term, cant say much until I see their YE 2020 FP.
In the mid to long term, yes UAC-PROP can ride on some benefits if management are proactive and efficient.

It is well.

onegentleguy:


On the part in bold...
In the short term, cant say much until I see their YE 2020 FP.
In the mid to long term, yes UAC-PROP can ride on some benefits if management are proactive and efficient.

It is well.

Boss when last did UPDC reit pay dividend? I only saw 58k for 2019

I just knew some one would shine the light on STI... Mopped up my feel and waiting patiently.

yMcy56:
The insurance are not relaxing yet
ROYALEX, Regal and Mbenefit just dey vex.......
STI looks cheap at 30k in my opinion.
Just thinking out loud

**Caveat: Decision at owner's risk**

yMcy56:
WAPCO:. 29.60! Up with +N2.....

UCAP: On its way to N6!
Seems some insiders have sighted the result........we wait and see......

J-GOLD: Full bid.......
cc: @Peterichy

FBNH: 7.60!
Dangsugar: N20.50......
JBerger: Sighted above 20! @20.60 now!

J-G Baby shocking enemies time immemorial

We soar this time

Dear Esteemed Client,

In line with the National Pension Commission’s regulatory framework and regulation on the management of Retirement Savings Account (RSA) by Pension Fund Administrators (PFA), funds in RSA accounts are to be unitized. However, based on regular engagement with RSA contributors, we have observed that most contributors do not understand how this process and growth of funds are determined.

In view of the above, you are invited to this chat on “Valuation of Pension Assets and Returns” for in-depth insight and knowledge.

Please see details below:

Date: Thursday, January 28th, 2021

Time: 12 noon

Venue: Instagram @investmentonepension

samguru:


Atlas Mara is not selling her stake in Union Bank neither Access Bank is planning to buy Atlas mara stake

Thank you

What I saw in JB didn't take time to manifest. How far can it climb? Not far it seems

Hello good people. What are the perks of registering online with CSCS? Also, is the subscription on an annual basis? The website did not clearly state these things. Thank you.

onegentleguy:


The news is simple…

Mr Wole Oshin, who doubles as the Chairman, founder and Group Managing Director of the Custodian Investment Group has taken over from the past chairman of the board of UAC-PROP, Mr Babatunde Kasali.
The new BOD chair, Mr Wole was initially appointed as a Exec director of the board of UAC-PROP ealier this month.

Inference:
This confirms the shift in control in the affairs of UACN-PROP from UACN to the CUSTODIAN GROUP and lays a strong plausibility that UACN may have completely divested its stake from UAC-PROP... so yes, the mkt cross deal from last week could’ve been it.

UAC-PROP? Well a strong coy with tested management is taken over control... so things may likely turnaround from here going forward.
However, while today's low of 70k isn't that expensive, I’d prefer to see their YE 2020 FP to adjudge the degree of their financial health before putting things in proper perspective.
For all we know, they(custodian), HNI or other minority investors may be the ones selling off/reducing their stake(presumably quite heavy) in UAC-PROP post allotment of UPDC-REIT, while increasing their holding in UPDC-REIT.
In the short term, it makes sense to think that they'd be better off holding more of the latter(updc-reit) than the former.(uac-prop)

UPDC-REIT? Its a buy @ any price <N6(RR margin in view)
UACN? An even better BUY @ the present mkt price.

Disclaimer: Before u act on this, pls do well to read through my signature below.
My advise? Pls follow ur instinct.

Selah

So I took a second look at the current health stand of UAC-PROP… drawing from the company’s financial print in the last 5 quarters.

There are negatives, but then there are more positives than negatives especially in the last 6 months… with certain KEY indicators signalling the likelihood for more in the next 3.

At the height of the positives is the deleveraging and restructuring efforts (including possible divestiture) by the new BOD and management team.
...a few highlight;

>> The coy has begun a restructuring of the BG/facility management division of its business. …which was undoubtedly a key part of the problems that badly impacted its cash flow/CGP given its high reliance on external funding(EFIR in view) and weighed down its balance sheet.
…this is KEY!!
>> The NTS also shows that the company is looking to take advantage of the low rate environment to position it towards having a healthy CF and ensuring a better yield on asset base. ...so it gets to keep a little more of the cash it makes and not literally just working more for the banks.
The planned redemption of its approx N4.36B series 1 bond on the 21st of April 2021 is another plus to the deleveraging/restructuring efforts. The new core investor(custodian) might in fact, be pumping funds into the coy.
>> The back to back huge drop on CBM/CBR(cash runway in view) and EFIR… plus jump(to the +) in the coys ROTE and EM lays credence to these efforts and signals a likely turning point of inflection(+)

Worries…

>> The company made provision(via revenue guarantee) for a $2M loan secured by one of its JV partners, First Festival Mall Ltd. The JV partner(First Festival) had failed to repay the said loan on maturity.
and so UAC-PROP is currently in discussion with the unnamed lender to broker a repayment plan.
For a coy that’s just coming out of the woods, $2M might be a bit too much and could pose a treat to recent efforts at cubing down their debt burden and boosting profitability.
>> The coy needs to be more aggressive at managing its cost line across board.

Bottom line:
Likely VALUE accretion carries much more weight than surrounding risk.
Put differently, REWARD is clearly well ahead of the combination of RISK and current mkt price with my FVE assuming zero growth in Q4 and attaching an above inflation risk premium pegged @ N1.81

…BUY!!

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Again my advise would be; follow ur instinct.

Selah

This man you dey try, no be small. Selfless efforts providing helpful insights.

onegentleguy:


So I took a second look at the current health stand of UAC-PROP… drawing from the company’s financial print in the last 5 quarters.

There are negatives, but then there are much more positives than negatives especially in the last 6 months… with certain KEY indicators signalling the likelihood for more in the next 3.

At the height of the positives is the deleveraging and restructuring efforts (including possible divestiture) by the new BOD and management team.
...a few highlight;


Selah

onegentleguy:


So I took a second look at the current health stand of UAC-PROP… drawing from the company’s financial print in the last 5 quarters.

There are negatives, but then there are more positives than negatives especially in the last 6 months… with certain KEY indicators signalling the likelihood for more in the next 3.

At the height of the positives is the deleveraging and restructuring efforts (including possible divestiture) by the new BOD and management team.
...a few highlight;

>> The coy has begun a restructuring of the BG/facility management division of its business. …which was undoubtedly a key part of the problems that badly impacted its cash flow/CGP given its high reliance on external funding(EFIR in view) and weighed down its balance sheet.
…this is KEY!!
>> The NTS also shows that the company is looking to take advantage of the low rate environment to position it towards having a healthy CF and ensuring a better yield on asset base. ...so it gets to keep a little more of the cash it makes and not literally just working more for the banks.
The planned redemption of its approx N4.36B series 1 bond on the 21st of April 2021 is another plus to the deleveraging/restructuring efforts. The new core investor(custodian) might in fact, be pumping funds into the coy.
>> The back to back huge drop on CBM/CBR(cash runway in view) and EFIR… plus jump(to the +) in the coys ROTE and EM lays credence to these efforts and signals a likely turning point of inflection(+)

Worries…

>> The company made provision(via revenue guarantee) for a $2M loan secured by one of its JV partners, First Festival Mall Ltd. The JV partner(First Festival) had failed to repay the said loan on maturity.
and so UAC-PROP is currently in discussion with the unknown lender to broker a repayment plan.
For a coy that’s just coming out of the woods, $2M might be a bit too much and could pose a treat to recent efforts at cubing down their debt burden and boosting profitability.
>> The coy needs to be more aggressive at managing its cost line across board.

Bottom line:
Likely VALUE accretion carries much more weight than surrounding risk.
Put differently, REWARD is clearly well ahead of the combination of RISK and current mkt price with my FVE assuming zero growth in Q4 and attaching an above inflation risk premium pegged @ N1.81

…BUY!!

Side Inquisition…

Of the 5 BODs who recently(precisely Jan 4th 2021) stepped down from the board of UAC-PROP(Adekunle Awojobi, Professor Okon Ansa, Mrs. Awuneba Ajumogobia) including the former Chairman(Mr Babatunde kasali) and MD/CEO(Mr Folasope Aiyesimoju), the 1st 4, holds a collective near 149M units of UAC-PROP, with the bulk of approx 148.6M(circa 5.72%) held by the 1st(Adekunle Awojobi) the representative of FBN Trustees.(an arm of FBN Quest)
Could it be that the huge sales in the last 3 trading days are that of Mr Adekunle Awojobi/FBN trustees? If yes, why are they selling?

For emphasis, the other 3 BOD members including the Chairman, Mr Kasali holds just a minot less 130,000 units.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Again my advise would be; follow ur instinct.

Selah

Weldone Sir Onegentleguy

Very Apt......comprehensive and insightful summary

UBA Board Okays Payment of Final Dividend for FY2020
https://businesspost.ng/economy/uba-board-okays-payment-of-final-dividend-for-fy2020/

Atlas Mara Denies Getting Offers to Sell Stake in Union Bank
https://businesspost.ng/banking/atlas-mara-denies-getting-offers-to-sell-stake-in-union-bank/

Ex-Governor Loses Millions of Naira Stashed in Zenith Bank, Polaris Bank
https://businesspost.ng/economy/ex-governor-loses-millions-of-naira-stashed-in-zenith-bank-polaris-bank/

Nigerian Oil Cabal Demands Cancellation of Hydrocarbon Tax
https://businesspost.ng/economy/nigerian-oil-cabal-demands-cancellation-of-hydrocarbon-tax/

House of Representatives to Pass PIB in April
https://businesspost.ng/economy/house-of-representatives-to-pass-pib-in-april/

Nollywood Actor Ernest Asuzu Slumps, Dies
https://businesspost.ng/showbiz/nollywood-actor-ernest-asuzu-slumps-dies/

Heishere:


Boss when last did UPDC reit pay dividend? I only saw 58k for 2019

Paid 59k in November 2020, UPDC earned about N1 billion dividend from UPDC REIT in November 2020.

Unfortunately UPDC did not generate enough revenue that can take care of their running cost


Wole Oshin is a professional marketer, I see him focusing on housing units of N20 million and below which the average Nigerian workers can afford. With this they can increase their revenue from about N3 billion to N20 billion or more in the next 5 years.

With about 20 million housing deficits in Nigeria, assuming just 1 million are viable at an average cost of N5 million for low cost houses that is a market of N5 Trillion for players in the sectors over a period of 10 years.

PENCOM may need to allow workers to borrow against their pension contributions for house ownership, rather than FG borrowing the pension funds through sovereign bonds.

onegentleguy:


So I took a second look at the current health stand of UAC-PROP… drawing from the company’s financial print in the last 5 quarters.

There are negatives, but then there are more positives than negatives especially in the last 6 months… with certain KEY indicators signalling the likelihood for more in the next 3.

At the height of the positives is the deleveraging and restructuring efforts (including possible divestiture) by the new BOD and management team.
...a few highlight;

>> The coy has begun a restructuring of the BG/facility management division of its business. …which was undoubtedly a key part of the problems that badly impacted its cash flow/CGP given its high reliance on external funding(EFIR in view) and weighed down its balance sheet.
…this is KEY!!
>> The NTS also shows that the company is looking to take advantage of the low rate environment to position it towards having a healthy CF and ensuring a better yield on asset base. ...so it gets to keep a little more of the cash it makes and not literally just working more for the banks.
The planned redemption of its approx N4.36B series 1 bond on the 21st of April 2021 is another plus to the deleveraging/restructuring efforts. The new core investor(custodian) might in fact, be pumping funds into the coy.
>> The back to back huge drop on CBM/CBR(cash runway in view) and EFIR… plus jump(to the +) in the coys ROTE and EM lays credence to these efforts and signals a likely turning point of inflection(+)

Worries…

>> The company made provision(via revenue guarantee) for a $2M loan secured by one of its JV partners, First Festival Mall Ltd. The JV partner(First Festival) had failed to repay the said loan on maturity.
and so UAC-PROP is currently in discussion with the unnamed lender to broker a repayment plan.
For a coy that’s just coming out of the woods, $2M might be a bit too much and could pose a treat to recent efforts at cubing down their debt burden and boosting profitability.
>> The coy needs to be more aggressive at managing its cost line across board.

Bottom line:
Likely VALUE accretion carries much more weight than surrounding risk.
Put differently, REWARD is clearly well ahead of the combination of RISK and current mkt price with my FVE assuming zero growth in Q4 and attaching an above inflation risk premium pegged @ N1.81

…BUY!!

Inquisition…

Of the 5 BODs who recently(precisely Jan 4th 2021) stepped down from the board of UAC-PROP(Adekunle Awojobi, Professor Okon Ansa, Mrs. Awuneba Ajumogobia) including the former Chairman(Mr Babatunde kasali) and MD/CEO(Mr Folasope Aiyesimoju), the 1st 4, holds a collective near 149M units of UAC-PROP, with the bulk of approx 148.6M(circa 5.72%) held by the 1st(Adekunle Awojobi) the representative of FBN Trustees.(an arm of FBN Quest)
Could it be that the huge sales in the last 3 trading days are that of Mr Adekunle Awojobi/FBN trustees? If yes, why are they selling?
Why didn't FBN Trustees bring in another indirect rep?

For emphasis, the other 3 BOD members including the Chairman, Mr Kasali holds just a minot less 130,000 units.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Again my advise would be; follow ur instinct.

Selah

This is insightful and accurate... The truth remains that CUSTODIAN mean business... I expect UAC-PROP to perform in the midterm-long term

Note

I'm heavily loaded in this coy so I am speaking for my money

yMcy56:

Some insiders are dumping, maybe there's an announcement to be made or maybe its result. They may eventually be wrong and regret dumping the stock.

Either way, UAC-Prop is good for pick @CP or below for medium to long term.....just my opinion.

This kind of dump also happened with CHAMPIONS... I aren't surprise sha... Let's see how the days ahead will look like

Abeg DD always oooooo

Stocks with new 52 week highs
Champion brew #2.58k
Ucap #5.90k
Lafarge #29.50k
M & B #4.50k
Mtn #175.00k
Airtel #930.00k

Intendy:
Stocks with new 52 week highs

Champion brew #2.58k

Ucap #5.90k

Lafarge #29.50k

M & B #4.50k

Mtn #175.00k

Airtel #930.00k

Will M&B see a low tomorrow considering the move by NASS to suspend local production of vaccines

megawealth01:
This is insightful and accurate... The truth remains that CUSTODIAN mean business... I expect UAC-PROP to perform in the midterm-long term

Note

I'm heavily loaded in this coy so I am speaking for my money

Na everywhere you dey?

Take am easy biko.

kintus:


Na everywhere you dey?

Take am easy biko.

The guy na CBN

Na LOOT from penny stocks I dey use buy better stocks

Biafran4life:
The guy na CBN

kintus:


Will M&B see a low tomorrow considering the move by NASS to suspend local production of vaccines

I didn't buy MAYB because of the so called vaccines... I have GSK and MAYB because I know they will deliver this year wella

My fellow Japaulians hope today will be BULLS day? When should we exit biko nu? Will it get to IPO price?

kintus:


Na everywhere you dey?

Take am easy biko.

It depends on howmuch he is investing in each stock. Ok, I am not saying he isn't investing serious money though.

For example, I have been testing a mean reversion strategy which is a beat more involved than the quater strategy I experimented on before.

I enter with 200k only(hypothetically as it is a backtest with previous close prices), and can hold as many as 40 different stocks at any one time.

From start date (2012 cos that is as far as my data goes) to subsequent days on my time series of prices I buy when the stock goes beyond one standard deviation below mean.

To make things a little clear, if I was to compute todays requirements. I would collect all the closing prices from march 2012, my start date, up to yesterday. Find the mean and standard deviation. If todays closing price is less than *** mean - standard deviation *** I buy.

I think this works because past prices hold information about a stock - where a stock has been in d past affects its future pricing.

By now u would be thinking, but how do I get out.

I get out in 2 ways, when I am more than 70% up from buy price or 70% down. Believe me, stocks hardly drop below 70% (Only Oando has done that to me twice since 2012 till date). Consequences are that I am loaded on many stocks wating to exit in any of this two ways. And ofcourse, I only buy a stock when I am out of it.

I am posting no graphs or tables, belive me I have had many more stocks exiting through over 70% profit than not. Best thing is I get to also enjoy dividends during d holding period.

How u see am nah?

#systematic_trader

Ndi ocha loots are being repatriated.
One eye still on Japaul

We bless the bull