NzogbuNzogbu:
he is right majority of those so called lp votes are going to pdp

Lp is overly exaggerated, the terrible thing for you again is to blindly allots percent

Is it the same okpebolo that don't have word in mouth, make campaign start first

70% of the Benin's population are enlightened and waiting for what plans they have

It's only ovia that may vote sentimentally for denco and few party members

The battle is over already.south and central is divided

aswani:



Labour Party is too high, particularly in Edo South.

Esan's will give them between 0 and 2% because they didn't get the men about Esan agenda, Afemai might be more generous and give them between 0 and 3%. Benin people maybe 5% in Oredo, no more than 1% elsewhere.

Majority of bini voters are non indigenes and they like labour party and obi

AcuraZDX:


Get a life.

You're too old for all these tantrums every election period.

This advice is meant for you,pained obidient

vowiski:
Useless analysis..

After taking cheap captain jack, you open a thread to write what evil spirits are telling you in your head.

If you were a really analyst, you’d know LP and ADP will be dragging for 4th position in the election.

Allocation figures to LP just the same way figures were allocated to Jagaban.


LP will not even get up to 20k votes in the entire Edo state.


Save this message and reply me in September

So who wins

The first analysis was done on 28 after the APC and pdp primaries we're concluded.i promised to bring 4 part predictions between February and september.i also promised that the part 2 will be out after APC,pdp unveil their running mates.additionally,the reconciliation efforts in APC where oshiomhole was pacified with idahosa being running mate has also influenced this latest analysis.the growing profile of Barr akpata will also be a factor...

Edo central senatorial district

IGUEBEN LGA
APC 45% pdp 40% Lp 15%
Esan North East LGA
APC 50% PDP 40% LP 10%%
Esan central LGA
APC 70% pdp 20% Lp 10%
Esan south East
APC 30% pdp 60% Lp 10%
Esan West
APC 43% PDP 50% Lp 7%

Edo southern senatorial district

Ikpoba okha LGA
Apc 20% pdp 55% Lp 25%
Uhumnwonde LGA
APC 45% pdp 35% Lp 20%
Egor LGA
APC 25% pdp 40% lp 35%
Oredo lga
APC 30% pdp 35% lp 35%
Orhiomnwon LGA
APC 45% pdp 35% Lp 20%
Ovia north East LGA
APC 50% pdp 35% Lp 15%
Ovia south west
APC 55% pdp 30% Lp 15%

Edo north district
Akoko Edo LGA
APC 50% pdp 43% lp 7%
Owan east
APC 55% pdp 40% lp 5%
Owan west LGA
APC 55% pdp 35% lp 10%
Etsako east LGA
APC 60% pdp 30% Lp 10%
Etsako central
APC 55% pdp 40% Lp 5%
Etsako west
APC 85% pdp 10% lp 5%

Cc mynd44
Nplfmod
Donphilopus
Indispensable85
Majole
Cajal
Legendhero
Generalpula
Casualobserver
Coolambience
Efewestern
Rolams
Aswani
Jorussia
Donphilopus

Isokiscool:
Hahahahah.Thank God their babes no give you chop and follow

I know why I added flex

IamANigerianMan:

EL-RUFAI cannot win just like Buhari until west and north central supported him, this time EL-RUFAI can only win north west and north east excluding two states Taraba and Adamawa state and 50 50 in Kaduna state and this cannot make him win, he is out to spoil Tinubu second tenure

He cannot

mrvitalis:

Lol 😂😂😂 which last two months

Why so hateful and negative? The dollars will still keep falling sir and obi will never rule

Isokiscool:
Asaba end is not completed sir, immediately after the Asaba end bridge head,its suppose to have a double lqne highway that will terminate at issele-asaba close to obulu okiti.This was the original design to cut off asaba main town

I dun flex issele asaba wella

mrvitalis:

The only issue is you don't have the reserve to back this up long term... Can't even last 1 month

This has lasted two months sir

mrvitalis:

El rufai would defeat Tinubu in South East before 12

Funny.as how na? El rufai is the most hated northerner in the south.if atiku couldn't defeat tinubu in Se,El rufai will struggle to

fergie001:

What makes Akpata self-made and Ighodalo not self-made?
Does been self-made make anyone better?

That means you are better than Seyi Tinubu & Bello El-Rufai combined because you are self-made and they aren't.

See no matter how much you project Akpata, this is a State-wide election that should involve the PDP & APC.

There is one thing that makes me not go with any movement or faction or whatever, because we are all hypocrites. When Atiku won the ticket, they said North cannot hand over to North.

Some say we are marginalised, others say we cannot vote you again after your brother just left there as VP.

In your own home State, you refused vehemently, that Governorship cannot leave your Senatorial District because it was your turn.

But Obaseki from the South should hand over to his brother from the South, it's now competence, as if Akpata is and others aren't.

Nothing shocks me in Edo, I remember 2020 very much. Give or take, I want an Esan man, full stop.

You know I am not supporting akpata.i am just comparing him to Ighodalo.
I am a strong supporter of zoning that is why I stood with dansuki for senate,oba for guber,otti and okpebholo.i won't support asuquo ekpenyong for second term despite his sterling performance.i have started drumming for power to rotate outside Ibadan and bauchi south.i want power to go to gombe south,kad south,taraba north...

Isokiscool:
No need to argue but you see Edo south,Asuen don win am

He will win narrowly just as central will be won narrowly.stick to your Edo central son

Objectivist04:
to 600k because of massive ringing in Rivers. The truth is that Tinubu did not win any state in south south and 2027 will even be worse .
Edo and Delta are no go area for him , fubara will block Wike's ringing plan , . Tinubu will lose with a wider margin this time around given the hardship brought by his policies. No amount of rigging will save him.
. Obi is the only candidate that is sure of two regions and the way he is warming himself into the hearts of northerners, middle belt which he lost narrowly my be in his bag this time around.

You guys still don't understand politics and how elections are done.as an incumbent,tinubu will have more votes than as an outsider.apc has gotten stronger in ss.as it stands,tinubu will win CRS,get more votes in akwa ibom,win bayelsa.fubara cannot bloc anything sir.tjis kind of naive calculations is why APC keeps winning.always be realistic.buhari failed in first term and still got massive votes,expect same from Tinubu.
No matter what obi does up north,tinubu will bury him

Penguin2:

If you check well, I’ve not said Edo South is locked down for Akpata. But you can’t tell me you believe those people fooling themselves around and calling themselves Obidients and talking trash about Akpata.

You know politics enough to know that Obaseki and Asue purchasing those guys and making them talk trash. The core Obidients are with Akpata and cannot be bought.

I don’t know if Akpata will win but trust me that Obidients will be with him until the end.

I agree with you.i may not like lp and obi but I like akpata for the fact that he's independent and self made like okpebholo,has no godfather like okpebholo so if okpebholo.doesn't win,I'll prefer akpata..
They are rumours that obaseki is fronting akpata to step down towards the polls
Another person I'll prefer as deputy is Tom iseghohi another technocrat close to obi but too politically naive

Isokiscool:
Oredo,ikpoba olha and egor is 80% Asuen.Orhiomwon and uhumhode is 60% Asuen.Edo south is 70% for Asuen but I know you will still argue sha

This is nonsensical na.obaseki that is from Oredo didn't get 80% there so how will unknown asue get it? Do you read what you type?

fergie001:

On what indices, I mean how is Akpata better than Ighodalo?

Akpata won't even say this. Just say you want the division to aid APC, that's all.

Akpata is self made unlike ighodalo

Objectivist04:

Buhari contested against a fellow Fulani man, while Tinubu is contesting against a south easterner , quite different scenarios.
What l know is that Obi will still trash Tinubu with landslide in 2027 in south south , wether he will win the election or not is what I don't know . South south and southeast is locked up for Obi anytime he choses to contest election.

Obi won tinubu in ss by 600k votes.now that tinubu is incumbent,no chance

Penguin2:


This is one of the few times you have been interesting to talk with.

The thing is that we now know the deputies of both Asue and Okpebholo, and we now know that neither Idahosa nor Asue’s running mate can topple Akpata in Edo South. So, Edo South is advantage Akpata.

If not for the sensibilities of the Esan people, I would have advised Akpata to pick his running mate from the north. Oshiomole might be popular in the north but, apart from Shuaibu, there has to be another person in that north that can help him cause an upset there.

But I heard Akpata talk in an interview and I know he’s likely to pick his running mate from the Central because of the Esan agenda. Maybe Rice Man can do it for him.

Now, if he picks Rice Man, Rice Man has considerable popularity that can’t be dismissed in Edo Central. So, if he brings the numbers he can from the Central and Akpata does his homework well in the South and garner bloc votes there, then Edo north becomes battleground with Okpebholo having a slight advantage because of Oshiomole factor.

I don’t know if I’m right, but those dismissing Akpata with the flip of a finger might be in for a shocker.

Edo south is not locked for anybody.a lot of obidients are supporting the esan agenda.majority of obidients believe in obi alone.as you can see some support asue so you can't say south is locked down for any one
Since Edo central is a battle ground,it is best akpata chooses his running mate from there to get votes.ill prefer sergius Ogun who is accomplished.the rice man is unstable..

Ogie is in control of his lga ikpoba okha while idahosa controls his own ovia axis.akpata can only harvest votes mainly in Oredo,Egor, uhumnwonde.
There's nothing he can do about Edo north though he can align with shuaibu or alimikhena or orbih to get some few votes.

Indispensable85:



Ogbeide is not popular anywhere. He'll even struggle to win his ward in oredo. Ize Iyamu is okay, odubu is onboard. There's no problem in the APC right now.

As for omosede, she's on a journey of no return. She can't get the ticket in APC for ovia federal constituency. The queue is long. At best na use and dump she go be.

Ize iyamu and odubu always struggle to deliver their wards.odubu is too laid back like oyetola...
Omosede doesn't need to decamp,with idahosa out there's no one in APC that can stop her from winning this time..
Oshio has to reach out to akoko Edo,a lot are grumbling there esp Domingo obende camp.parts of owan also

omoharry:
Na our turn! Na our turn ,nai Nigeria take dey continue to vote for clueless and heartless leaders . How has Buhari who is from Katsina state changed that state since he became president of Nigeria? Has any region benefited becos their sons emerge as a president or governor? The only people that benefit are friends a d cronies of that ruler. When are going to stop this emilokan nonsense!

Dah,buhari singlehandedly attracted over 30 federal establishments to his state.daura is now a full fledged city

Penguin2:

You know I was thinking you would, in your usual manner, deny the fact that Akpata seems to be growing into the race more than we thought he would and truly, it’s Ighodalo that is suffering it most.

But you need to understand that Okpebholo doesn’t have Central on lockdown while I can’t really say how much votes he can garner from the north with Oshiomole’s influence.

From what is playing out, the race is becoming unpredictable.

One month ago I thought Ighodalo was going to have an easy ride to Osadebey Avenue but I don’t think anybody can still hit his chest and say he’s sure of that now.

Like I have always told you,I am the most objective APC fan you will find here.i adapt and take note of the fluidity of politics.i actually saw akpata rose coming but fortunately,it is restricted to benin city which is headquarters of obidients in ss.he is non-existent in the central and north except something extraordinary happens before September.
Nobody has the central on lockdown,this is clear since pdp and apc candidates are from there.they will divide votes here.asue is like tinubu in the north contesting under APC that they know while okpebholo is atiku contesting under pdp they don't like but is their son.both will win their lgas and struggle in the other three...

Edo north is gone.with shuaibu and orbih against obaseki,the margin will be embarrassing.oshiomhole delivered Edo north against gej incumbency in 2015,delivered in 2020 despite the Edo no be Lagos propaganda and did same last year despite the obi tsunami.it will be a walkover now.you may not like it but it is advantage okpebholo...
Funny enough akpata can poll the highest votes if he can get bloc votes in Edo south just like obi did.all he needs is to pick votes elsewhere

[quote author=majole post=129086023][/quote]

They will never vote obi na or any SE over tinubu

Objectivist04:

Tinubu 1m in south south ? Joker of the year . If 2.5m votes are to come from south south, Tinubu cannot get more than 500k
Note that fubara will not allow Wike to rig Rivers again

Lol,buhari had 1 mil in ss in 2019 so tinubu will get more.fubqra will even want to rig for tinubu

Chinjo2:
God forbid.
Edo voted massively for Peter Obi and not for LP.
Olumide Akpata does not have the same quality as Peter Obi.
Edo electorates are independent minded people who knows what they want.
They will vote based on their convinction and not on who they are asked to vote for.

Many will vote akpata nonetheless

aswani:


Surprised you are saying this as you seem to be knowledgeable about Ẹdo politics, Akpata will not win anything anywhere in Edo South.

I guess we can only wait till then.

Akpata that they are saying is more bini than obaseki? This election will be like presidential and akpata is like obi,he might not win anywhere but will damage pdp to favour APC.
Edo south is the capital of obidients in ss and a large number will vote akpata

South East
Tinubu 300k obi 2 mil

South south
Tinubu 1 mil obi 1.5 mil

South west
Tinubu 3 mil obi 1 mil

North central
Tinubu 2 mil obi 1.5 mil

North East
Tinubu 2 mil obi 500k

North West
Tinubu 4mil obi 500k


Mynd44
Nplfmod
Seun
Fergie001
Seunmsg
Penguin2
Immaculatejoe
Mrvitalis

In south east,mbah of enugu
In ss,obaseki of Edo
In SW dapo of Ogun
In NC,muftwang of plateau
In NW,jigawa gov
In ne kefas agbu

aswani:
Olumide Akpata will not win one single polling unit, even the one serving Misson Road.

Abure plans to collapse the LP structure and cash out anyway so I doubt Akpata will even make it that far to the ballot box.

LP are dead in Edo state, very very dead. You will see that Peter Obi will not step foot in the state before the elections.

Ẹdo South ruled for 8 years, Esan's agitated for Esan agenda and both PDP and APC gave them, LP produced another Ẹdo South person and you think he has a chance.

I shouldn't even be in this thread sef. Continue shouting ya Elupee upandan

Actually,akpata might just win Oredo and maybe Egor LGA.lets be realistic

Penguin2:
Before the different party primaries, there was this huge clamour for power to rotate to Esan people of Edo State and Asue Ighodalo of the PDP seemed to be the poster child.

But since the end of the primaries and the emergence of Olumide Akpata of Labour Party who though is from Edo South, is a capable candidate not encumbered by any godfather or things like that, the the Asue Ighodalo campaign seems to be steadily losing steam and people tend to be tilting towards Akpata.

I stand to be corrected but from clips I’ve seen online of their engagements with the people on ground, I’ve not seen anything extraordinary about Ighodalo to justify the hype he seemed to enjoy before now of how the election will be a walkover for him.

If I’m not wrong, I think Edo people, seeing what Alex Otti is doing in Abia, have chosen to go with competence. And talking about competence, Asue’s ambition is not helped by Obaseki’s dismal performance in the past few years since he won re-election. So, though Asue may be a wonderful candidate on his own capacity, the fact that Obaseki is the one trying to install is off putting for majority of Edo people who are angered by his poor performance.

And the APC guy?

The picture of his Waec result recently trended and he only had one credit in Mathematics while he failed others which left people wondering how he gained admission into higher institution.

Again, it’s looking like it would be easier for the head of a cow to pass through the eye of a needle than for Edo people to vote APC - there’s rarely any state in Nigeria today that would vote APC.

So, what’s happening in Edo State?

Why is Asue Ighodalo’s campaign losing steam and Olumide Akpata surprisingly making waves?

It is simply because most of asue supporters were lp guys who are now flocking back to akpata who is better honestly than ighodalo.the more akpata grows in popularity,the better for APC because most of his supporters would have voted pdp...
Akpata as predicted will win or divide votes in Edo south and will fail woefully in central and north paving way for okpebholo

For south east,otti and soludo.
For SS,prince otu
For south west,sanwoolu
NC,bago
Ne zulum
NW is Uba Sani

fergie001:
They are wooing her with Idahosa's vacant seat, but she put out a statement this morning insisting she is not moving.

She doesn't need to move though idahosa winning is best for her