₦airaland Forum

The Trade Plan
We are looking for a deviation between 0.2% ~ 0.3% from the forecasted figure of 1.9%. Therefore if we get a 2.2% on the first quarter 2012 GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD. However, if we get a 1.7% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD. We’ll be looking to trade this release based on my Retracement Trading Method; since this is a high impact release, strong market volatility is expected immediately after the release.

I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pair above as it is based on my strength meter by pairing up the best currencies in the event of a better/worse news… or you can just use the default pairs for this news: USDJPY or EURUSD

8:15am NY Time US ADP NFP Change Forecast 139K Previous 119K
Deviation: 50K (BUY USD 190K / SELL USD 90K)

The Trade Plan
I usually don´t trade this release but I use it for future trend references. However, if the deviation of 50K is actually hit, the market probably wont have a problem pushing it, and this will undoubtedly change market perception for the NFP release; therefore its best to be around your computer during the release time rather than find out what happened hours later and potentially miss the entire movement.

With the above being said, we´ll be looking for a deviation of 50K, so if we get 190K or better release, I´d be looking to BUY USD against the Weakest currency based on the strength meter; if we get a 90K or worse, then I´d be looking to SELL USD against the Strongest currency based on the meter… Please use the Recommendation Pairs below only if the release is above 190K or below 90K…

worse new sell usd/jpy

better news sell usd/nzd

[BREAKING NEWS]

(EU) ECB rejects Spanish Bailout plan to indirectly tap into
its cash in order to recapitalize Bankia; Told govt officials
that a proper capital injection is needed. Spain plan said
to be potentially in breach of EU rules. Govt officials said
to have argued that Spain has implemented reforms requested
by Brussels and wants to avoid bailouts similar to those of
Portugal, Greece and Ireland. In turn, Brussels is said to
have been frustrated by PM Rajoy's handling of the crisis
ever since he attempted to unilaterally revise deficit
targets last month.

(EU) Separate US financial press report indicating Spain's
own bailout fund has only about €9B remaining. While it can
be replenished through debt issuance, recent auctions have
seen weak demand and sharply higher borrowing costs.

(EU) Follow Up 5:30 ET ECB: Have not been consulted on Spain
recapitalization plans but is prepared to give advice on the
development of such plans - Statement

(EU) European Commission may request that EU Fin Ministers
allow Spain an extra year to achieve 3% deficit to GDP
target, moving deadline from 2013 to 2014.

How to interpret this?

We saw sharp sell-offs of EURUSD immediately following ECB's
rejection, it seems that the market rather take a Spanish
Bailout as a positive signal than a rejection of a Spanish
Bailout Plan... Which once again brings us back to the basis
of market analysis, that uncertainty is always worse than
news, no matter how bad the news is.

I would expect to see EURUSD retest the 2011 lows of around
the 1.2000 level, giving the fact that Greek election is
coming up in a couple of weeks and Spain is under tremendous
scrutiny, not mentioning the implication of requesting
extention to the Deficit to GDP target... The key is to keep
selling EUR whenever it makes significant recoveries.

let he that have ear hear this

Thanks

SILIBABA

[BREAKING NEWS] [BREAKING NEWS] [BREAKING NEWS] [BREAKING NEWS]
[BREAKING NEWS] [BREAKING NEWS] [BREAKING NEWS] [BREAKING NEWS]

silibaba: Forex Market Review And Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 28 ~ June 1, 2012)


Forex Market Review And Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 28 ~ June 1, 2012) news may28 Turbulence in Europe exacerbated this week as the two summit meetings (G8 and informal EU Summit in Brussels) failed to reassure the market. Traders responded by taking it out on the combined currency as first time in almost two years. Oddly enough, divergence in the Equity market begin to take form as major indices in both Europe and U.S. ended the week positively, although the strength in safe-haven currencies, particularly the USD, added pressure to commodities as precious metals and crude oil remained subdued; of course, concerns in China cooling its demand for hard commodities didn’t help either.

In Greece, recent polls suggested the majority of Greeks want to “remain in the euro zone” but “renounce” the terms of the bailout agreement, leading them to support the anti-bailout Greek party Syriza which is polling as high as 30%. Syriza Party Leader Tsipras once again shocked the market by commenting this week that “Potential for Greece exit from the EMU would destroy the EMU” and “Chancellor Merkel should realize she is an equal partner in the EMU and there are no ‘landlords or tenants’ in the EMU“… Former Greek PM Papademos coined the word “GREXIT” describing the inevitability of Greece exiting the EMU given the increasingly apparent political stalemate surrounding austerity rejections… Most analysts are currently forecasting “GREXIT” in 6 to 18 months.

In Spain, the government is struggling to deal with its regional governments’ deficits and its problematic banking system. The estimated price tag for the Bankia bailout rose from around €4.5B at the start of week to an astounding €19B on Friday. Market perception worsened for Spain and the Euro as new reports out of the wealthiest region in Spain, Catalonia, requesting a government bailout. Catalonia accounts for about 20% of Spanish economy.

In Europe, the preliminary European May PMI data indicated further contraction is underway on the continent, as the Manufacturing PMI reading came in at 45.0 v 46.0e, one of the lowest readings since June 2009, and Services PMI at 46.5 v 46.7e. In Germany, Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.0 v 47.0e, lower than the European average and one of the sharpest monthly drop since June of 2009, while Services PMI came in at 52.2 v 52.0e (slightly better).

In UK, the sentiment of doom and gloom settled in as the Revised Quarterly GDP for the first quarter of 2012 (Q1 2012) came in worse than expected at -0.3%, and the April Retail Sales figure came in at -2.3% v -0.8%, which is one of the worst release since 1997. Meanwhile, Bank of England released its Meeting Minutes and showed that the majority of its voting members felt that BOE’s monetary policy is “finely balanced”, which reminds me of the band playing while the Titanic sunk… BOE is out of touch with reality and the worst thing is that BOE has a track of record of being out of touch… I’d expect further pressure on the GBP as the credibility of BOE come into question.

In Japan, Fitch cut its sovereign credit rating by two notches to A+ (from AA) citing BOJ’s “leisure approach” to its consolidation plans compared to other fiscally challenged high income countries, and that its implementation is subject to political risk. BOE’s Posen chimed in by stating that “there is room left for BOJ to further ease monetary policy, there is no point for the BOJ to maintain self-imposed limits on JGB bond buying…”. On Wednesday, BOJ’s Shirakawa responded during his Interest Rate Press Conference and said “the central bank had no change to its stance of pursuing powerful easing. He added that he saw big demerits to further rate cuts including cutting the 0.5% interest paid to excess reserves and needed to measure effects of easing by interest rates and not by size of monetary base. He did not see immediate risk of BOJ failing to meet asset purchase target. The tail risk regarding European debt woes was at forefront in his opinion”, essentially pointing the finger at Europe for recent JPY strengths and told Fitch and the market to stay out of BOJ’s business, but not in these exact words.

In China, government researcher warned that China’s 2012 GDP growth could dip below 7% and that China needs to adjust its rate policy early. Similar reports last week from China government economists Zhu Baoliang also calls for possible rate cut as early as Q2 of 2012, although his view on the GDP remains the same as the official government estimate at 7.5%. In other news out of China, evidence emerged of cooling China demand for hard commodities, as Financial Times noted local buyers were deferring on delivery or defaulting altogether on shipments of coal and iron.

In U.S., the US April Existing Home Sales number rose for the first time in three months, matching the high seen in the January data. The New Home Sales beat forecast 3 out of last four releases, posting a new high for the year while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading came in at the highest level in over four years. Market continued to flow into the safety and the positive fundamental outlook of the USD.

In conclusion, EUR and GBP are expected to be sold off this week, although we may see some limited consolidation like the beginning of last week’s trading, but the overall negative fundamental outlook and the risk of a “GREXIT” remains unchanged; I’d sell EURUSD and GBPUSD on any significant consolidation or rallies. JPY is likely to remain neutral against USD while strong against other majors, I’d only SELL JPY against USD and perhaps sit on the sidelines for JPY crosses as BOJ may step up its rhetoric and keep JPY strength in check. AUD and NZD should remain under pressure, although if China decides to cut interest rate this week, we should refrain from buying, but rather positioning sell trades towards the end of the day as the overall risk aversion momentum should drive the pairs back down… this should be a no-brainer for fundamental traders as the overall market climate remains unchanged. USDCAD is facing a strong support between 1.0300 ~ 1.0400 level, and I believe we may very well see a possible reversal of the pair… of course, if EURUSD falls beyond the 1.2500 level, the sheer strength of a strong across the board USD will probably blow USDCAD through the 1.0400, but if EURUSD were to remain at the current trading range, then we could look to position USDCAD SELL trades. USD is expected to remain strong this week, but of course the focus will be on the NFP release on Friday. Since we won’t have ISM PMI’s to possibly predict NFP release figure, this week’s ADP report on Thursday may play a major role.


The main event for the week is the NFP (Nonfarm Payroll), and
with the current political climate in Europe, I'd believe
that USD may actually get a boost coming into the news, of
course the key to NFP will be on the ADP report on Thursday...


Thanks,

this is the news, so you may still want to go tru it. keep sell till NFP is release

if the house had read the news post i left here on Sunday, they would be smiling to the bank by now

[quote author=ondo_boi]just cant get ma eyes off this bakassi[/quote]oko ashawo

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ona too view post, ona eyes no dey pain ona

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wetin ona dey view self

oboy see spike, enof stop loss must have bin knocked out

honeric01: SL hit

Nothing do me.

is part of da game big bros, move on cos no looking back

[quote author=X_box]Am losing my patience on EU[/quote]still watching the action film at S2. will consider buy if the 1hour candle close as a hammer or closes above the support line.

still watching sha

honeric01: Longed EU, GU, AU, EJ and CJ for the last time today

1.2600
1.5710
0.9900
100.30
83.50

These are my targets from

1.2620
1.5660
0.9825

99.60
82.90

In 1985,IBB was the president of this country/Nigeria,and my teacher told me then that Buhari was the former president of this country/Nigeria,my teacher also called me the leader of tomorrow,..........20 sometin yrs leta,IBB and BUHARI are still contesting for the president of this country/Nigeria,DOES IT MEAN THAT MY TEACHER LIED TO ME ABOUT BEING THE LEADER OF TOMORROW, OR TOMORROW HAS NOT COME?,plz reply/comment pals.

am done for the day

shop padlocked till 10pm today

;DHOW MARKET FOLKS

ARE WE HARVESTING PIPS YET

swiftz: Please check your mail.

CHECK INBOXES ASAP

swiftz: Please check your mail.

k

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wetin ona dey view

Fxmarket: Where are we?

you don do baptism get baptisma name

anyway, we still dey inside molue waiting to be driven down south

samyng: patiently waiting to sell from PP

me too

WINNINGWAYZ: I taught on price action the other day, which I said constitutes most of my trading. Remember me saying if gu closes below .6, am selling? good. I entered 2 trades today already. AU has fulfilled its plan, remaining EU.
If the open and close are with the previous bar and terminates at a pivot point, take the tail end as ur stop loss and enter in the opposite direction.
Remember my trade on AU yesterday? Good. this give you authority in trading. Know this alone and spotting trades can make u a very good trader

i took mine on min-dow

silibaba: Forex Market Review And Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 28 ~ June 1, 2012)


Forex Market Review And Upcoming Forex Calendar (May 28 ~ June 1, 2012) news may28 Turbulence in Europe exacerbated this week as the two summit meetings (G8 and informal EU Summit in Brussels) failed to reassure the market. Traders responded by taking it out on the combined currency as first time in almost two years. Oddly enough, divergence in the Equity market begin to take form as major indices in both Europe and U.S. ended the week positively, although the strength in safe-haven currencies, particularly the USD, added pressure to commodities as precious metals and crude oil remained subdued; of course, concerns in China cooling its demand for hard commodities didn’t help either.

In Greece, recent polls suggested the majority of Greeks want to “remain in the euro zone” but “renounce” the terms of the bailout agreement, leading them to support the anti-bailout Greek party Syriza which is polling as high as 30%. Syriza Party Leader Tsipras once again shocked the market by commenting this week that “Potential for Greece exit from the EMU would destroy the EMU” and “Chancellor Merkel should realize she is an equal partner in the EMU and there are no ‘landlords or tenants’ in the EMU“… Former Greek PM Papademos coined the word “GREXIT” describing the inevitability of Greece exiting the EMU given the increasingly apparent political stalemate surrounding austerity rejections… Most analysts are currently forecasting “GREXIT” in 6 to 18 months.

In Spain, the government is struggling to deal with its regional governments’ deficits and its problematic banking system. The estimated price tag for the Bankia bailout rose from around €4.5B at the start of week to an astounding €19B on Friday. Market perception worsened for Spain and the Euro as new reports out of the wealthiest region in Spain, Catalonia, requesting a government bailout. Catalonia accounts for about 20% of Spanish economy.

In Europe, the preliminary European May PMI data indicated further contraction is underway on the continent, as the Manufacturing PMI reading came in at 45.0 v 46.0e, one of the lowest readings since June 2009, and Services PMI at 46.5 v 46.7e. In Germany, Manufacturing PMI came in at 45.0 v 47.0e, lower than the European average and one of the sharpest monthly drop since June of 2009, while Services PMI came in at 52.2 v 52.0e (slightly better).

In UK, the sentiment of doom and gloom settled in as the Revised Quarterly GDP for the first quarter of 2012 (Q1 2012) came in worse than expected at -0.3%, and the April Retail Sales figure came in at -2.3% v -0.8%, which is one of the worst release since 1997. Meanwhile, Bank of England released its Meeting Minutes and showed that the majority of its voting members felt that BOE’s monetary policy is “finely balanced”, which reminds me of the band playing while the Titanic sunk… BOE is out of touch with reality and the worst thing is that BOE has a track of record of being out of touch… I’d expect further pressure on the GBP as the credibility of BOE come into question.

In Japan, Fitch cut its sovereign credit rating by two notches to A+ (from AA) citing BOJ’s “leisure approach” to its consolidation plans compared to other fiscally challenged high income countries, and that its implementation is subject to political risk. BOE’s Posen chimed in by stating that “there is room left for BOJ to further ease monetary policy, there is no point for the BOJ to maintain self-imposed limits on JGB bond buying…”. On Wednesday, BOJ’s Shirakawa responded during his Interest Rate Press Conference and said “the central bank had no change to its stance of pursuing powerful easing. He added that he saw big demerits to further rate cuts including cutting the 0.5% interest paid to excess reserves and needed to measure effects of easing by interest rates and not by size of monetary base. He did not see immediate risk of BOJ failing to meet asset purchase target. The tail risk regarding European debt woes was at forefront in his opinion”, essentially pointing the finger at Europe for recent JPY strengths and told Fitch and the market to stay out of BOJ’s business, but not in these exact words.

In China, government researcher warned that China’s 2012 GDP growth could dip below 7% and that China needs to adjust its rate policy early. Similar reports last week from China government economists Zhu Baoliang also calls for possible rate cut as early as Q2 of 2012, although his view on the GDP remains the same as the official government estimate at 7.5%. In other news out of China, evidence emerged of cooling China demand for hard commodities, as Financial Times noted local buyers were deferring on delivery or defaulting altogether on shipments of coal and iron.

In U.S., the US April Existing Home Sales number rose for the first time in three months, matching the high seen in the January data. The New Home Sales beat forecast 3 out of last four releases, posting a new high for the year while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading came in at the highest level in over four years. Market continued to flow into the safety and the positive fundamental outlook of the USD.

In conclusion, EUR and GBP are expected to be sold off this week, although we may see some limited consolidation like the beginning of last week’s trading, but the overall negative fundamental outlook and the risk of a “GREXIT” remains unchanged; I’d sell EURUSD and GBPUSD on any significant consolidation or rallies. JPY is likely to remain neutral against USD while strong against other majors, I’d only SELL JPY against USD and perhaps sit on the sidelines for JPY crosses as BOJ may step up its rhetoric and keep JPY strength in check. AUD and NZD should remain under pressure, although if China decides to cut interest rate this week, we should refrain from buying, but rather positioning sell trades towards the end of the day as the overall risk aversion momentum should drive the pairs back down… this should be a no-brainer for fundamental traders as the overall market climate remains unchanged. USDCAD is facing a strong support between 1.0300 ~ 1.0400 level, and I believe we may very well see a possible reversal of the pair… of course, if EURUSD falls beyond the 1.2500 level, the sheer strength of a strong across the board USD will probably blow USDCAD through the 1.0400, but if EURUSD were to remain at the current trading range, then we could look to position USDCAD SELL trades. USD is expected to remain strong this week, but of course the focus will be on the NFP release on Friday. Since we won’t have ISM PMI’s to possibly predict NFP release figure, this week’s ADP report on Thursday may play a major role.


The main event for the week is the NFP (Nonfarm Payroll), and
with the current political climate in Europe, I'd believe
that USD may actually get a boost coming into the news, of
course the key to NFP will be on the ADP report on Thursday...


Thanks,

i posted this on sunday this week, keep an eye on it

lawson007: Tonjoan,Fxking2012,fxwarrior,Blog icon,Prof Edet and Odiaero(or na fxmarket, it is not only time for quarrel you will reply) we are still waiting for your story Sirs.U have no idea how many millions of lives the story of Warren Buffet,Bill Gates,Naijababe,Methodman,frenchman, winningwayz etc and the other veterans that wrote their awesome tale have inspired and are still inspiring.To the glory of God,be an example and an inspiration with your story of how you got where U r today in Fx. Tip: You can be typing while your trade is running.

I am buying UJ again at market price tp 79.63.Join me at ur own risk.

u dey see wella am already in

swiftz: shey? Even if evrything na red abi?
How far our parole nah?

remind me

bamshy: Only 6months and above require a visa. 15weeks no reach 6 months. Hence, you may have no reason to apply for a study permit.

thank u

ebugirl: Ur certificate program ȋ̊§ for 15weeks and Ɣõu̶̲̥̅̊ expect them to give Ɣõu̶̲̥̅̊ 1year visa? Funny question....well, I think Ɣõu̶̲̥̅̊ should av reasonable amount of money in ur account. An amount that will be able to cater for ur living expenses during ur program. Its not a matter of dumping in a huge sum of money but rather there should be inflow and outflow of cash and also the source of income should be exhibited in ur statement of account.

jah bless

why is the house so quiet

even if u no make moni, dey joli dey shake bodi

Finally the new NIGERIA PIDGIN ENGLISH BIBLE is out.

One of the popular chapters na psalm 23 reads:-

1.Baba God na my shephard, i dey kampe. 2. E make me sidon for where betta dey flow, come put me near stream make mai bodi thermacool. 3. E panel beat mai soul come spray am white, come dey carry me dey go through express road go meet righteousness, sake of Im name. 4. Walahi!, if I waka pass whe...re arm robber, 419 and juju people boku, come even join boko haram reach valley of the shadow of death sef, mai bodi dey inside cloth. Your rod and staff nko? Na so dem dey like back bone dey comfort me. 5. You don prepare beta food on top table make I chop. All mai enemies dey look waa waa, ** mtcheeew long throat**. You rub me for head wit vaseline intensive lotion. Mai cup na River Niger wey overflow im bank. 6. True true, betta life and mercy go gum mai back till I quench. And man pikin go tanda for God house from lai lai to lai lai. GOD ALMIGTHY NA YOU BIKO AMEN.

:Dhow markets