₦airaland Forum

Obi will fall short of 25% in 24 states no matter the bloc votes he gets from SE. Apart from Lagos, he is getting barely 10% in other SW states. PDP abysmal performance in the south thanks to Obi means Tinubu will top them in majority votes.

Convince me otherwise

NothingDoMe:
No sir. Tinubu can't get majority votes. I believe Obi will.

Also, Tinubu will have issues with the spread in the middlebelt, SE and SS. That's a lot of states to factor in.

Except SE starts putting up numbers like I'm seeing in the North, I'd have a hard time believing you

MYMINDER:
Not everyone votes on ethnic lines like you. Some people.look at candidates based on their person. That's the way you are. Leave it at that.

Some polls (Bloomberg &Economist) agreed with me. We never advance like Western countries yet

GVTAsiwaju:
Kwankwaso is the main man, did Atiku dirty

Atiku did himself dirty. Shot himself on both legs

NothingDoMe:
Possibly. Good thing is one the Ks is out of APCs hands 🤣🤣🤣

Dont rejoice. The requirements for victory is majority votes and 25% in 24 states. Only Tinubu is on pace to meet the two. Infact he's the most likely to win majority votes

GVTAsiwaju:
Just look at Sokoto result

Shagari LGA
APC - 8,869
NNPP - 2,995
PDP - 7,891
LP - 0

Sokoto North LGA

APC - 21,239
NNPP - 7,167
PDP - 18,886

Sokoto South LGA
APC - 23,637
NNPP - 7,971

PDP - 21,020 #AsiwajuIsComing

This is a PDP state. Tambuwal's state in fact

If these results are true PDP maybe done as a party.

AntonVince:
The boldened has nothing to do with the ongoing election.

That is a factor bro. And then religion.

AntonVince:
Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Ondo, Ekiti, Nasarawa, Kogi, Benue, Plateau, Adamawa, Gombe, Kaduna, Taraba.
...and watch out for Niger state too.

He looks set to win the boldened outrightly.

C'mon bro he can't win Lagos. 30 - 40% is possible tho. Not sure about other SW states and Kogi. I don't think the Igbo population there is much like Lagos. He will only be eating into PDP's strongholds

Atiku's self-destruction should be studied in schools as a case study of "How Not To Win An Election". Never seen this before. 🤡

muykem:
OK. APC is winning the two states so the difference in SW will cancel SE anyhow.

Let's see then. It will depend on % turnout and Obi's win %

AntonVince:
From your list, I noted earlier that Obi is not only doing well in Kaduna but might even win it outrightly.
The Tangales of Gombe will definitely deliver him 25% and the Siyawas (Dogara's people) in Tafawa Balewa and Bogoro, the Warji, Dass and Alkaleri people among others will give him a decent number (likely less than 25% though) in Bauchi.

As for the other other states, take a quick look at the 2011 presidential election result where Jonathan lost all the 12 core northern states to Buhari yet won the popular votes to become president and you'll clearly see while an Obi presidency looks unstoppable now.

Ire o!

Can you list the 13 states outside SE&SS Obi will score 25%?

muykem:
PDP is trying in Osun but Labour is not doing anything in Oyo except Lagos.

I meant LP in Lagos, PDP in Osun &Oyo

muykem:
I know. There's no way Sw different will not cancel SE different. SW is far bigger and larger.

Don't be too sure LP & PDP are pulling their weight in Lagos, Osun and Oyo.

Alba3:
Tinubu is actually a good politician, knowing fully well that many SW youths, endsars people, majority of the Pentecostal churches, haters of Buhari's borders cloture, scarcity of fuel and cash, Obasanjo and Ayo Adebanjo supporters, PDP Dollars, the'wokes' and the rest like other minority groups in Lagos and SW would be against him;
He simply held on to the northern APC governors that helped him win primary election. He's pally with wike is also top notch as wike already made up his mind to help both the two southern candidates.

Atiku's feud with Southern governors helped him. There would have been many defections. Some Northern leaders were not sure of Atiku's viability.

muykem:
see you. SW votes will cancel SE. The little different in SS if any will be cancelled by NE. Tinubu already won all 6 states in SW.

Is not total votes that cancel but the differential. If Obi scores a landslide in the SE you might have to adjust your calculations.

Jokerman:
Obi is already winning Nassarawa.

Dey play

Take am easy. No full LGA anywhere has been called.

Efewestern:
BAT isn't even getting the chunk of northern votes. Divide the so called bloc votes into 3 and tell me whether Obi's votes from SE & SS won't cancel them.

Obi is not coming third. Dead that talk and let us face the present realities.

Kwankwaso won't get much. He's popular in only a few states so I think it's likely a two horse race btwn Tinubu and Atiku in NE &NW. Tinubu might snag 40% overall there and that with a clear majority in d SW will push him through

HIGHESTPOPORI:
Urchins like deceiving themselves, where is Tinubu pulling weight in ss and se?

Are results from Rivers Imo, Ebonyi, Cross River, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo fully out yet? Let's wait and see.

Felabrity:
LP are doing better in the north east and NW (NC aside) compared to APC in the South East

I am yet to see a single PU APC won in the SE

Umahi is coming 😂😂

grandstar:
I like your analysis. You tried to be as unbiased as possible.

However, are you certain that Tinubu is neck to neck with Atiku in the North?

Frankly speaking, I feel Tinubu has won this election.

I am apolitical. I even believe Tinubu is ailing and he has been showing signs of senility. Another YaraDua may play out in a few years if he ascends office.

That does not change facts on ground that this election might be his

I

I share same feeling. He's the only one pulling weight across all the regions. Atiku gave himself a handicap even before election. Obi couldn't build bridges to the Muslim North (maybe he didn't have time).

This election is Tinubu's to lose.

raskymonojendor:
The results I have seen so far for some LGAs in the North West especially, Labour have been getting zero out of thousands. Did they omit labour from the ballot in those places. I can't even paste them here because it would look like fake.

Labour has no hope in some places there

Amarabae:
I laugh at all these deluded agbados.

No worry, Monday is fast approaching
Congrats in advance to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.

Please tell me how

Ritchiee:
His game plan was depending on Buhari but Buhari is neither here nor there.He had to show where he pitched his tent at the last moment.

Buhari can't transfer those block votes even if he wanted.

gambojimeta:
Labour is really giving APC a run for their money. PDP is not even in this race in the south

What was Atiku thinking feuding with Southern governors??. Cos I don't see him getting block votes from the North as it stands. What exactly was his game plan?

Godoverevery:
Please is ebonyi state people not voting.

Haven't heard anything about that state today.

Anyone with info with what going on there.

They are cooking something there. I trust Umahi

Bizibi:
Obedient supporters are too quick to celebrate.... results from the north has not come in.

Their reaction is from shock . I don't think most of them were expecting it

I expect APC to win Lagos. Their structure is too deep to just collapse

Ortom delivers his polling unit for Obi. He also won the Senate by same amount. #Integrity

Mfetenang:
Imagine if Obi and Kwankwaso were not in the race, Atiku would have won by landslide. Unfortunately PDP votes have been split into 3. Tinubu is winning by landslide.

In which region pls?

Datti-Ahmed is really lightweight

The Kind of result I wasnt expecting...Although i believe this 'used' to be a PDP stronghold

Can somebody just throw away ZLP already....

Odogwuzack:
When we tell them that Lagos is no man's land some miscreants will be arguing.

Pls keep them coming.

Dont do this bro. Lagos is in their zone and hence the sensitivity. You would feel the same if Lagos is in the SE.

Aside that, There are many liberal, Christian and activist Yoruba who are voting Obi this term (for one reason or the other)