₦airaland Forum

Jagaban ti lule!!!! He kept on organizing rallies in lagos to douse the overwhelming rejection staring in the face across the bnation. Tinubu the president of Lagos.

adioolayi:
They have just set Atiku up for defeat...

The Sunnis will intentionally go against their choice.

They are Sunnis too.

Trollronaldo:
Atiku is not popular in southwest.
Peter Obi will be 2nd place in southwest, he's the second most popular candidate in that region

How Obidient folks dream must be studied after the election.
Obi won't get 5% in any SW state bar Lagos.

tollyboy5:
I'm talking About atiku disregarding the G5 governors.

Atiku couldn't unite his party.
He left PDP to contest and lost, came back to pdp and left to support buhari now back to pdp to be president yet he can't unite everyone.
Instead he's giving excuses.

G5 don't want to be united.

tollyboy5:
They think it's the normal asslicking kind of politics lol.

Believing only the north can rule, forgetting the fact that middle belt don't mean same thing as Hausa/Fulani.

What is middlebelt?
Elections are now BVAS compliant and e-transmission of results.

garfield1:
2023

You didn't catch my drift! 2023 Atiku O'clock!!!

garfield1:
Atiku loses gombe

You mean in 2019?

mrkings84:
ITS ONLY POLITICIANS THAT ARE DEFFECTING FROM APC TO PDP AND PDP TO APC, BUT WE MASSES HAVE ALL MOVED TO LABOUR PARTY UNANNOUNCED.

You mean igbos have all moved to labour party, abi?

Penguin2:
Lol!

Like APC did in Anambra where they bought even a sitting deputy governor, that’s what they are doing now.

They’ve embarked upon the purchase of anybody who has ever held any political post.

I’m sure their thinking is that the masses will be swayed by seeing big names in APC.

But like that strategy failed woefully in Anambra where it yielded just third position, it will fail again.

Tinubu is out of the contest.

His only option now is to back Obi in southern solidarity and as reparation for 2015 treachery.

Your head is very correct.

derecho:
Kikikiki... Mikano boys consoling themselves.


OBIdients deliberately left Atiku to cancel out Tinubu's effect in two places
1.amongst the northern Muslims
2.Bribe-seeking peasants

When the scores is 0-0
Then Obi will now brandish his USP...
Who can you Trust?
As for the Christian South and North,
Our minds are made up.
Peter Obi is our choice... Final

Are you the gatekeeper of christain votes?
Well obi will come a very distant 3rd/4th.
In fact, more christains will vote for Tinubu than Obi!!!

Aufbauh:
It's now clear that Obi won't secure 25% votes in SW states apart from Lagos .

Even in Lagos he won't. 25% is different from 25 votes!

garfield1:
Buhari won benue with 70,000.with all the propaganda in 2019 against fulani atiku won it narrowly.now that a xtian is there and benue pdp has abandoned atiku,he is out

You mean Ortom abandoned atiku certainly not the PDP in benue. In fact, PDP would win benue.

garfield1:
99% of benue are Christians.they won't vote for a fulani nor a m m ticket

You i
Who is feeding you with this baseless narrative?Atiku won benue with just about 10k votes in 2019, buhari won it in 2015. Leave that wild assumption of obi winning benue cos of christain sympathy.
The northerners know too well where and how to align their political survival be it christain or Muslim. No one will emotionally be on a journey of self destruct!
Only in the south east will obi has a meaningful showing . Outside south east he is an entertainment!

garfield1:
Obi has won benue

Hehehehe you are joking right?

Penguin2:
Nobody will vote Atiku in the Southeast.

About the north, you claimed Obi only stands a chance in Benue…

Who is winning Plateau?

Who is winning Abuja?

Who do you think will win Southern Kaduna?

Do you know that Obi is likely to do over 30% of votes cast in Adamawa, Atiku’s home state?

I am expecting realistic answers

Be deceiving yourself. Obi can't win a ward in any state in the entire 19 northern states plus FCT .
Very soon it will even be clear he can't win polling units.

raumdeuter:
Entire North of 19 states max Obi will win 2 which is being very generous

Atiku can clear 11 of those Northern states easily

19 Northern states Atiku 11 Tinubu 7 Obi 1

Obi cannot win a ward let alone an LGA before mentioning a state in the entire 19 northern states plus FCT.
If he gets 50k votes in any northern state that would be over achievement!

raumdeuter:
Atiku - Bauchi Gombe Taraba Adamawa Sokoto Plateau Kaduna Kebbi Jigawa FCT

Tinubu - Yobe Borno Zamfara Katsina Kwara Kogi Niger

Obi - Benue ??

Kwankwanso Kano

Abegi take benue away from obi. Even if Ortom endorses him he can't win benue.

garfield1:
Obi has won benue already.he stands a chance of winning plateau,fct.he will win southern Kaduna,some lgas in nasarawa,kogi,taraba

Is southern Kaduna a state?
Many Obidient would be heartbroken come February. They are banking on northern christains. Over 75% of northern christains are aligned to PDP. Igbos are generally the least voting folks anywhere in Nigeria they only make loud noises. Era of writing results are over and the votes return in the SE fell drastically reflecting their true voters turnout during elections.

ImmaculateJOE:
Obi can't win Nasarawa, it's practically impossible.. For Kaduna, he should focus on Southern Kaduna.. I will advice they hold their rally in Kafanchan, forget Kaduna city..

States to win: 5SE, Crs, Rivers, Edo, Delta, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kaduna....

AKS, Taraba is also winnable..

Obi won't and can't win any state out of south east.
He won't win even a ward in the entire 19 northern state.

[quote author= post=118638921]Kwankwaso NNPP is a cancer to PDP and APC both Atiku and Tinubu has been begging Kwankwaso to step down from the race [/quote]He is to APC !

FatherOfJesus:
you think you are talking to your Mumus in 2019 abi?

Make your point no insults.

Superwave16320:
Polls conducted by ipob right
How many rallies have you seen conducted for Obi in the SW ? You don't think that should indicate how terribly he will fail.

He won't get 10% that is even being too generous.

Apophenia24k:
Any evidence to validate your statement.?

Look above to see how the two people discussed intelligently with logical reasonings..
Learn to keep quiet when you're clueless

You should learn to control your emotions. Obi has zero path to the presidency and he knows so. No one gate crashes to the presidency!!!!

garfield1:
True.I agree,tinubu is not as popular in his region but fortunately the opposition is very weak in sw.and he is the only major Yoruba contesting plus the sw alwats gives bloc votes to a Yoruba candidate.

Now buhari an outsider polled 55% in sw.tinubu an indigene can't poll less than buhari.he will poll slightly more let's say 60%.again,most lp supporters are from pdp so they share from the same pool which means lp and pdp won't have more than 40%.the ekiti polls was an indicator..

Now concerning pollsters nextier,buhari was estimated to get 35% in se/ss in 2015.what happened? Atiku was estimated to get 40% in north

South west doesn't give bloc votes. Only SS & SE do that in the south.

IrepChrist:
So Mr. Atiku expects the south to fold hands to see North rule for another 4 to 8 years.
With the level of nepotism in Nigeria.
And APC is imposing Muslim/Muslim ticket.


How I wish we can all see that the best option is Obi/Datti.

Yes the winner shall lead Nigeria be it Atiku or Tinubu.

Workch:
Let’s work with this simple hypothesis.

Imagine if:
NW: 1million voters
NE: 600k voters
NC: 800k voters
SS: 700k voters
SE: 500k voters
SW: 800k voters
Total: 4.5million

Northwest
Atiku: 40% 400k
Tinubu: 30% 300k
Kwankwanso: 20% 200k
Obi: 10% 100k

Northeast
Atiku 50% 300k
Tinubu 30% 180k
Kwankwanso 15% 90k
Peter Obi 10% 60k

Northecentral
Peter Obi 30% 240k
Tinubu 30% 240k
Atiku 30% 240
Kwankwanso 10% 80k

Southsouth
Obi 55%: 385k
Atiku 25%: 175k
Tinubu 15% 105k
Kwankwanso 5% 35k

Southeast
Peter Obi 70%: 350k
Atiku 15%: 75k
Tinubu 10%: 50k
Kwankwanso 5%: 25k

Southwest
Tinubu 55%: 440k
Peter Obi 30%: 240k
Atiku 10%: 80k
Kwankwanso 5%: 40k

Total votes

Peter Obi: 1.375million
Tinubu: 1.315million
Atiku: 1.270million
Kwankwanso: 510k


Conclusion
This prediction may not be precise however it’s close to what will happen.
1. If Kwankwanso gains more ground the north, it will Favour Peter Obi

2. Tinubu most not allow Peter obi gain more grounds in southwest.

3. Atiku is most likely to suffer if anything changes here.

4. Kwankwanso cannot win

5. Tinubu can get more numbers if he does his home work well in the north and Kwankwanso doesn’t thrive.

6. I see a rerun between Atiku or Tinubu and Peter Obi is the most probable conclusion for now

7. Atiku needs to do a lot of work in the north as much as he needs to do in the south else he’s out.

8. Peter Obi will Stand tall if he manages to get more than 10% votes in northwest and northeast

Obi won't get 10% in the entire northern zones that is ; NW, NE and NC.
Obi equally won't get 10% in SW. Even in Lagos he won't get 25%.
Obi won't win any state outside of south east.
Election is not BBnaija!
Bottom line, obi has zero path to the presidency.
The contest is straight up between Atiku and Tinubu. And there won't be run off.

JASONjnr:
Point is, the north will divide...

The youths wants Obi...

Atiku is more popular than Kwankwaso and Tinubu..But Obi is gaining his grown.

You have to not rely on statistics of 2015 because anything can change.

My hope for Obi is in the south and a little from the North over their division.

But if Kwankwaso eventually merge with Atiku, then, the votes will favour Obi more. because this will run to a regional vote count....

You mean Igbo youth, abi?

mrvitalis:
Any state in South east obi gets below 95% he failed

Igbos would vote obi yes because he is obi and stands a chance ...but because there is no alternative that's why he would get that high percentage

If APC brought Ameachi or osibanjo I would tell you they would get 25% in every south east state

For Atiku ..he go shock

Chest beating kawai.

NigeriaIsGreat:
Tofa lost to Abiola in kano. Atiku lost even his polling unit to Buhari

Northerners don't reason like you folks

Wake up. This is 2023 not 1993 nor buhari on the ballot. Atiku will sweep the north .

veekid:

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if these ones managed to have 10k votes in the whole of Lagos, they deserve a trophy. Awon dindinrin meji

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Same was said of the dancing senator in osun. The rest is history.

garfield1:
Let me adjust slightly but many Christians in Adamawa and taraba will vote obi.fanatic Muslims will vote kwankwaso

Only fanatic christains will vote obi. The bulk of northern christains will vote PDP.

successmatters:
Imagine how bad it would have been if Peter Obi wasn't on the ballot with Atiku.

Nothing worse than it was. Let the votes be wasted we shall see!