₦airaland Forum

yarimo:
Hehehehe you want to post fake news and defamation of APC candidates and you realized I am online abi ?

Nobel laureate, Prof Wole Soyinka, has disowned a statement on social media linking him to the endorsement of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu.

The social media post also purportedly indicated that the elder statesman described the Peoples Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, in uncharitable words.

The statement read, “Quote me anywhere, Nigerians don’t need the likes of Atiku and Obasanjo to lead them again. We have tested the two: Atiku is corrupt and Obasanjo is a liar. Both of them are greedy and self-centered…”

“Anybody, any cabal, any Viju milk activist, attempting to humiliate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu must have me to contend with. An average PDP man is angry with Asiwaju because he brought them to their knees. If anyone thinks that bringing down Asiwaju is his project, that mission will not only crash but it will boomerang. He owns Lagos! I hear you! Ask your grandfather and parents how they acquired your so-called family land. Is it God that allocated it to them?”

Reacting to the post, the playwright in an email to our correspondent on Sunday said, “Professor Soyinka did NOT at any time or on any occasion issue such a statement. It is simply the works of peddlers of fake news and falsehood, who profit from Misinformation to gain political advantages. The media and members of the public are advised to ignore the message or any other political message that addresses or targets any political party or political actor.’’

In the past, doctored videos and distorted statements had been credited to the essayist which he distanced himself from.

In one of his responses to the fake posts, Soyinka noted that one can continue to monitor and respond to the concoctions of the addicts of falsehood, and their assiduous promoters who had yet to learn to wipe the filth off their tablets.

The controversy generated by the currency redesign policy of the Muhammadu Buhari administration further deepened, yesterday, as some members of the All Progressives Congress, APC, and National Working Committee, NWC, disowned today’s meeting.

Sunday Vanguard had reported that the party’s National Chairman, Abdullahi Adamu, had, last Friday, scheduled a meeting between state governors and NWC today.

The development, according to party sources, was informed by the worsening row between the governors and President Muhammadu Buhari over the currency policy.

The meeting slated for 2 pm is coming six days before the general elections.

“The National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), His Excellency, Senator Abdullahi Adamu, invites state governors of the party to an emergency meeting to be held on Sunday, February 19, 2023, at 2 pm at the National Secretariat, Abuja,” party spokesman, Felix Morka, said in a notice on Friday night.

NWC

However, at least two members of the NWC, who pleaded anonymity, told Sunday Vanguard they were not aware of the proposed gathering.

“The said meeting was at the instance of Adamu and not the NWC.

“I am not aware of any meeting with our state governors on Sunday. I only got to know this after reading your story on your website. So, you were the one who even informed me,” one of the officials said.

The second person said the NWC never met and resolved that it should call for such a parley with governors.

“The said meeting is strange to some of us. I have not been invited and I am a member of the NWC. Yet, we saw reports quoting our spokesman as saying that NWC meets will meet with state governors. I am not aware of the meeting,” he added.

Asked if he had any insight into the agenda of the forum, he queried: “Is it not a meeting you have been invited to that you will know the agenda? How can I know the agenda of a meeting I haven’t been invited to?’’

“It does appear that the meeting is between the Chairman, Adamu, and the governors. He has a right to meet with them in his capacity as chairman but not on behalf of the NWC except where we so empower him to act,” he added.

Scarcity

Meanwhile, the crisis over currency scarcity took a different dimension as the Nigeria Police cautioned groups and individuals, including state governors, against triggering a crisis in the country.

It also described statements by those opposed to the policy as an attempt to heat the polity and instigate the populace against the government.

This came as Southern Governors Forum said the pandemonium occasioned by the development is likely to disrupt Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections.

The state chief executives consequently cautioned that unfolding events might lead to chaos, saying the currency swap has failed.

The forum spoke on a day 10 states, through their attorneys-general, filed a fresh process before the Supreme Court to challenge President Muhammadu Buhari’s pronouncement in the broadcast he made last Thursday.

Hardship

The hardship resulting from the scarcity of currency notes became tougher across the country yesterday.

Our Correspondents observed that economic activities were largely disrupted, with business owners shutting down.

Commuters were stranded following the rejection of old Naira notes by transporters, who insisted on collecting new currency.

However, a few who accepted old notes increased the cost of transportation, deepening the pains of commuters.

The excitement generated by reports that, the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, had authorized banks to start accepting old N1000 and N500, last Friday, was short-lived by a circular from the apex bank debunking such.

Many had started accepting the old notes until the CBN denied giving such approval.

Irrespective of that, Sunday Vanguard observed that some new generation banks were accepting the old higher denomination bills, yesterday, in Lagos.

No fewer than five different banks accepted the currencies in what appeared contrary to the CBN’s statement on Friday.

Similarly, the Cash Return Portal of the bank directed people with old N500 and old N1,000 notes to their banks.

Long queues were seen in front of banks as customers attempted to gain access to the banking halls.

Some customers were unable to generate reference numbers from the CBN portal.

President Buhari ordered the apex bank to recirculate N200 and N100 notes. But at press time most ATMs failed to dispense naira notes.

The President had, in a broadcast, last Thursday, approved the use of old N200 notes for 60 days.

APC govs

He, however, did not allow the continued use of the old N500 and N1,000 notes.

Buhari’s failure to suspend the policy as demanded by some, especially state governors, further led to attacks from some state governors.

The opposition to the naira redesign is specifically led by governors elected on the platform of APC.

They had earlier taken the matter to the Supreme Court, seeking the stoppage of the policy.

Following the apex court’s adjournment of the case to February 22, 2023, and Buhari’s approval of lower denominations, the opposition by the governors continued.

In apparent disapproval of the President’s directive, some of the governors urged their people to continue using old currency notes, insisting that they were still legal tender.

Those who gave the directive include Governor Nasir El-rufai of Kaduna State, Kano State governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, and Mohammed Badaru of Jigawa State.

The move, apart from setting the state governors on a collision course with the Presidency, has also put the APC in disarray.

One of the state governors in his rejection of Buhari’s latest action on the policy accused the President of attempting to truncate democracy.

10 govs

Sunday Vanguard learned, yesterday, that 10 state governors had approached the Supreme Court to declare Buhari’s latest directive on the naira swap policy as unconstitutional.

The President had directed the CBN to recirculate only the old N200 notes.

This is despite the ruling of the apex court that old N200, N500, and N1000 notes are still valid.

The motion, in the suit marked SC/CV/162/2023, was filed by the attorney-generals of Kaduna, Kogi, Zamfara, Ondo, Ekiti, Katsina, Ogun, Cross River, Lagos, and Sokoto states.

The relief sought by the applicants said: “An order setting aside the directive contained in the special and presidential media Broadcast delivered on Thursday, the 16th of February, 2023 by the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (the substantive 1st defendant in this suit) for being an unconstitutional overreach and usurpation of the judicial power of this court on a matter constituting the subject matter of the pending suit herein; and in respect whereof there subsists an order of interim injunction binding on all parties inclusive of the president who is a party through the named nominal defendant in person of the 1st defendant as the chief legal officer of the federation.”
Southern govs

The Chairman of Southern Governors Forum, Rotimi Akerodolu, yesterday, said implementation of the naira swap policy had been woeful despite claims to the contrary.

His words: “The increasing gale of violence sweeping through the country, portends danger to the current democratic governance.

“There is incontrovertible evidence bordering on miscalculation, error of judgement and/or disinformation on the part of the policymakers, especially the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Godwin Emefiele, on the failed implementation of the policy, the effect of which compels the whole country to groan, immeasurably, at present.

“There is hardly anyone who contends with either the statutory functions of the Central Bank of Nigeria or the occupier of the office of its Governor, one of which is the monetary policy.

“ It is also not debatable that the President and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria is empowered, under our law, to exercise certain executive power.

“ It can, however, not be the original intendment of the drafters of the relevant statutes that the implementation of any policy should occasion widespread hardship and pervasive agony in the land.

“The safety of the people is the supreme law. Any measure, purportedly designed to ameliorate their conditions, must not reduce the entire populace to a beggarly existence. There is pervasive discontent in the land.

“A policy, presented as currency swap, must not be construed by both the reasonable members and people of average intelligence in the society to convey the deplorable impression of contrived subterfuge manifest in the official confiscation of legitimate deposits of the people in banks, as a countermeasure against electoral malfeasance, terrorism and banditry.

“Desirable as the policy appears to be, its implementation excites curiosity as regards the real motive of its drivers, especially at this time when the conduct of general elections is almost here.

“The suffering of the masses, occasioned by the non-availability of new notes to replace the old ones, equally decreed out of existence by presidential fiat in contravention of the CBN Act, 2007, could have been averted if the strategy of a gradual and systematic withdrawal of the old currency notes had been adopted.”

Polity

The police, in their statement signed by the Force Public Relations Officer, CSP Olumuyiwa Adejobi, warned those opposed to the currency redesign to avoid overheating the polity.

The statement reads: “Amidst the prevailing outcries and reactions on the new naira policy in the country, the Nigeria Police Force has deemed it necessary to caution groups and individuals against divisive comments and utterances capable of heating the polity and triggering a crisis in the nation.

“This call is highly imperative as the Police perceive the reactions and utterances of certain groups and individuals as an attempt to heat the polity and spontaneously instigate the populace against the government and its policies for their peculiar interests and gains.’’

SIX days to the February 25 presidential and National Assembly polls, candidates and political parties are devising ways to mitigate the effects of the raging Naira scarcity on their electoral quests.

Currently, there is tension in the polity on account of the scarcity of the new N200, N500 and 1000 notes, which has been worsened by fuel scarcity.

Since the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, introduced the redesigned Naira and cash limit policy of N500,000 and N5,000,000 a week for individuals and corporate organisations, respectively, many politicians have been kept on their toes.

A host of politicians mainly of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, have been kicking against the policy with some claiming that the APC Presidential Candidate, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, is the prime target of the policy.

Apart from checking vote buying, the Federal Government said the policy is meant to fight inflation and insecurity, especially kidnapping for ransom.

The deadline for the use of the old notes was initially fixed for January 31 but the CBN later extended it to February 10.

President Muhammadu Buhari, on Thursday, extended the use of the old N200 note to April 10, declaring that the old N500 and N1000 notes ceased to be legal tender on February 10, as affirmed by the CBN.

The president’s declaration is not in tandem with an interim order of the Supreme Court, which restrained the Federal Government from implementing the February 10 deadline for use of the old notes based on the suit filed by the governments of Kogi, Zamfara and Kaduna states. The apex court fixed hearing of the suit for February 22.

The Majority Leader of the House of Representatives, Ado Doguwa, on Thursday, lamented that the Naira scarcity was hurting him and other Politicians.

Specifically, Doguwa, who is seeking re-election on the platform of the APC, said he needs N70m “in hard copy” for this election and it is not available due to the Naira crunch.

Doguwa lamented that the naira scarcity caused by the new policy would affect the electioneering expenses of politicians.

The lawmaker, who expressed his reservation over the new naira policy after a meeting with President Buhari at the Presidential Villa, lamented that the policy is affecting the APC.

Citing Section 88(4) of the Electoral Act, Doguwa said: “I need to have this N70m in hard copy. That is the position of the law and as I speak to you, I don’t have it.”

Doguwa noted that all politicians, irrespective of political affiliations, would be affected by the new policy.

“The policy in itself is against the ruling party because Nigerians that are not happy will look at it as a policy of the government of the APC.

“30-40 days to elections you come out with a policy that is not widely accepted by Nigerians, whether we like it or not that will be seen as the programme of the government. So those of us in the APC are not happy about it,” he said.

Plots to beat Naira scarcity

Despite the complaints of politicians, Sunday Vanguard gathered that a host of them were “forward looking” and had mapped out measures to navigate the Naira crunch.

Their moves, the CBN lamented, last week, is partly responsible for Naira scarcity because they are “mopping up” the few redesigned Naira released into circulation by the apex bank.

The Naira mop up is to deepen the measures they are taking to win the election that has become tougher because of the introduction of Bimodal Voters Accreditation System, BVAS, by the INEC to check multiple voting as well as ensure that the real owner of a Permanent Voters Card, PVC, votes.

Before now, some politicians had embarked on expanded stomach infrastructure through the appointment of more aides; ensuring that their faithful got PVCs; and denying perceived supporters of opponents their PVCs.

On Election Day, Sunday Vanguard gathered that part of the measures will be to suppress votes and buy votes in opponents’ strongholds.

Asked the possibility of “compensating” their supporters on Election Day, one grassroots politician said: “we are politicians, we know the game and how to play it.”

Stomach infrastructure

With rising poverty in the land, some politicians have embarked on fresh welfare packages to win the support of would-be voters.

Sunday Vanguard gathered that many politicians are toeing the line of Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, on a higher scale.

Wike, recently, appointed over 200,000 special political appointees and placed them on a monthly allowance of N30,000 to N50,000.

A top leader of one of the political parties told Sunday Vanguard: “Wike appointed 200,000 aides. We are doing a similar thing on a larger scale. We mobilised over one million people for the voter registration and ensured they got their PVCs. The 2023 elections will be different from past elections because of the BVAS and redesigning of the naira. In the past, an officer in charge of some polling units in a Ward may be given N500,000 or one million nairas. From the money, he will take care of agents of the other parties, security agents and INEC officials and we will take charge of the process.

“With BVAS, things have changed. But we are politicians and we know how to play the game. We have mobilized real people, real voters, up to one million in some LGAs. We have started giving them allowances of N10,000 every month and it will continue till the end of the election. We transfer the money into their bank accounts.”

‘Naira scarcity will affect vote sellers more’

Agreeing that the Naira redesign policy has affected politicians, another politician said voters would be affected the more.

“In the past, depending on location, politicians buy votes with N5000, N10,000 or even N20,000, if there was stiff opposition. Now things have changed. With the scarcity of Naira and worsening poverty, votes may be bought with N1000. You have seen what people are passing through to survive and how difficult it is to get cash. Some of them may even sell their votes for N200,” he said.

frank14011991:
if yahaya Bello hand the ticket to this guy who is an igala, then APC will win with a landslide

The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), will make a national broadcast to Nigerians on Thursday (today) at 7am.

This was made known in a press release late Wednesday, made available to The PUNCH, by the Special Adviser to the President on Media & Publicity, Femi Adesina.

The statement said, “Television, radio stations and other electronic media outlets are enjoined to hook up to the network services of the Nigerian Television Authority and Radio Nigeria for the broadcast.”

The reason for the broadcast or what would be addressed by the president was however, not stated.

FORMER minister of transportation and leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers state is conspicuously absent in Port Harcourt about now as the presidential campaign rally of Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the state gets underway.

Tinubu was ushered into the Yakubu Gowon Stadium, aka Liberation Stadium, by Rivers APC guber candidate, Tonye Cole, as dignitaries match into the podium for the all-important rally now gradually peaking.

In the absence of Amaechi, leaders have raised some concerns over the perceived failure of the former minister to let go of the animosity generated between him and the candidate following the touchy presidential primary of the APC last year.

Dismissing Amaechi’s absence as borne out of any ill-feeling towards Tinubu, however, Darlington Nwauju, Spokesman, Rivers APC told Vanguard, “For those not aware, the former Transportation Minister is a Law school student attending to his academics.

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 Nigerian Presidential elections, a third and final nationwide opinion poll was commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited (NOIPolls). This third Poll in the series was concluded in the first half of February 2023 and follows two earlier Polls carried out (using the exact same methodology) in September and December 2022. We believe our baseline Presidential Poll published on 15 September, 2022 was the first well-publicised national poll released in connection with the 2023 Presidential elections, which was followed by a Bloomberg poll published on 28 September, 2022.

For the avoidance of doubt, it is pertinent to mention that the methodology used by NOIPolls is almost the exact same methodology that was used in previous Presidential Polls that they handled for us in 2011, 2015 and 2019. In all those past Presidential Polls, the front-runner that was identified by our Polls ended up winning the elections, irrespective of a rather large percentage of voters who were Undecided and/or Refused to indicate who their preferred candidate was. We have also applied the exact same methodology in our various Governorship Polls carried out in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2022 and the methodology generally held up well. We are of course aware of some significant differences between the 2023 Presidential race and those of prior years e.g. 1) A longer Campaign season: 2) the presence of 4 major candidates instead of 2; and 3) greater voter enthusiasm.

In December 2022, we took the extra step to expand the methodology in our 2nd Presidential Poll in this series by carrying out 3 different polls using sample sizes of 1,000, 2,000 and 3,000 and confirmed that (as expected) the results did not change significantly. This notwithstanding, we chose a sample size of 2,000 for our third and final poll in February 2023 as opposed to the 1,000 sample size we used for the published September and December 2022 poll.

Our 3rd and Final Poll result in February, 2023 reveals that Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) remains in the lead, with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both trailing him. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) emerged as the lone outsider. Mr. Peter Obi leads, with 21% of registered voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who fell in second place. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar was third with 10% and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Given the large pool of Undecided Voters and/or those who Refused to disclose their preferred choice, Mr. Peter Obi’s 8%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 3%. Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 23% and 30% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 27% of women are undecided versus 18% of male registered voters.

The percentage of registered voters and/or voters with their Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) is as follows in each of the zones – 96% in the North East, 93% each in the North West and South East. Slightly lower voter registration percentages were recorded in the North Central with 92%, South West with 89% and the South South with 88%. Accordingly, maximum voter participation across the 6 Geopolitical Zones, now range within a narrow band of 88-96%. This differs significantly from what obtained in 2015 where maximum voter participation was highest in the North West Zone at 80% and lowest in the South South Zone at only 60%.

The chart below captures the overall position of the four (4) leading Presidential candidates by aggregating and weighing their scores in proportion to population totals across Nigeria based on the findings of our September 2022, December 2022 and February 2023 polls. In comparison to previous polls, the percentage of undecided and refused voters increased significantly from 38% in 2019 to 53% as at the time of this poll showing that a host of voters are either still seated on the fence, barely 14 days to the general elections or are refusing to disclose their preferences. Our agreed methodology does NOT allow NOIPolls staff to attempt to cajole unresponsive voters into making a choice on the phone because we believe that violates the rights of a voter.

When asked if religion would affect the choice of respondents, data gathered voluntarily showed that 9% of the respondents replied in the affirmative to religion influencing their choice of candidates but 87% on the other hand, responded that their choices were not being influenced by religion; in the same vein, 7% responded in the affirmative to ethnicity affecting their choice of candidates while 89% responded that their choices were not influenced by ethnicity.

Furthermore, the data summarizes the top five reasons why voters are more inclined to vote in the forthcoming elections, as follows: – The need to tackle insecurity (36%), Inflation (26%), Unemployment (11%), Poverty alleviation (6%) and Education (5%).

It is worthy of note that 81% of those aged 18-25, 83% of those aged 26-35, 85% of those aged 36-45, 89% of those aged 46-60 and 81% of those aged 61+ responded that they would definitely vote in the coming elections. The age groups that expressed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 36-45 and 46-60 years.

The Poll shows that almost 9 in 10 registered voters (the highest we have recorded since we started gathering this data) now say that they are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the 2023 presidential election as compared to 8 in 10 registered voters in 2019. If they stay committed over the course of the next fortnight and, in the absence of aggravated security concerns or unresolved PVC collection challenges, we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 Presidential elections.

While this Poll result shows some very significant trends, it is key to note that the eventual outcome lies in the hands of the voters who are Undecided and/or Refused to disclose the identity of their preferred candidate, as they could ultimately decide which candidate takes the overall lead to emerge as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 Presidential elections.

The high percentage of voters (38%) who refused to disclose their preferred candidate in the South West Zone is worrisome.

For other zones, those who refused to disclose their preferred candidate ranged from 18-36%. At 38%, the South West figure is an outlier. Historically, an exceedingly high percentage of voters refusing to disclose their preferred candidate has usually been associated with perceptions/fears (real or imagined) of possible voter intimidation within a geographical area. Other possibilities abound e.g. voters not wanting to reveal that they appear to be voting on the basis of ethnicity and/or religion, or voters not being comfortable disclosing on the phone that they wish to vote for a candidate other than the one from their own ethnic and/or religious grouping. We are also aware of the pressures that come from voters seeking to appear trendy and multiple other factors at play.

Our conclusion is that, using our tried and tested method of sampling since 2011, the 2023 Presidential Elections are too close to call, notwithstanding the fact that, whoever was at the top of the polls based on this exact same methodology in 2011, 2015 and 2019 eventually won the elections. This time Mr. Peter Obi has been the front-runner throughout, but we caution that the Undecided/Refused vote is still too high (in early February 2023) to be ignored. We had thought that by delaying our 3rd and Final Poll until early February 2023 we would see a collapse of the Undecided Vote. The reality is that the reduction in the Undecided Vote has been more than offset by the increase in the number of voters who refuse to disclose the name of their preferred candidate. When we carried out our first and baseline poll in September 2022 we thought a long campaign period would lead to different candidates taking turns to lead the field. That has not been the case. This long drawn out race has been surprisingly stagnant.

Penguin2:
I think by AND, the framers of the constitution joined the FCT with the rest of the states. So, that provision shouldn’t be ambiguous.

Hoelujohn:
I have updated it. About 3 refused participating, 1 said the dad is not voting.
The key thing is that do the parents have PVC? That's the determining factor

Penguin2:
Lol!

I don’t factor Niger in my calculation but I don’t know why you guys don’t think Obi will get 25% in Oyo. Are you guys aware that that state is a little cosmopolitan?

Meanwhile I found out Abuja is not part of your count, why?

Hoelujohn:
What is difficult in him getting 25% in Ogun state? I teach in a school where about 80% of the pupils are Yorubas. Infact I will do something now. I will ask them to write down the party the parents are supporting. I will update soon

Workch:
it's because they rig the election and do overvoting which BVAS will detect now.

Candidate popularity is the best bet for anyone now. No one is Going to conjure any figure for you, not even Wike can.

APC cannot get 25% in edo and rivers. They will had this election been conducted in 2015

garfield1:
Denying apc 25% in edo,rivers,crs bayelsa is funny while you allocated 25% to them in sw.obi won't see 25% outside lagos

tesppidd:
I think it is illogical to expect that the winner must get 25 percent in the FCT, I mean what is so special about the FCT?

My own interpretation is that;

The winner must achieve 25 percent in 24 states.
i.e. Either of these 2 ways;

1. Get it in 24 states without the FCT or
2. Get it in 23 states and then also get it in the FCT.

Zulum500:
Thooonndeeer faya alaigbo piglets 🤣🤣🤣

Another interesting revelation from the Kwakol poll revealed that over 67 percent of respondents earning above N200,000 said that they would vote for Obi. This result was closely followed by the 64.5 percent of respondents who earned between N101,000 and N200,000 and said that they would vote for Obi.

Peter Gregory Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, is the most popular candidate among the major contenders seeking to become the nation’s next president, a new poll conducted by the Kwakol Research Institute has revealed.

The poll, which took a different approach to collecting valuable data and providing reasonable conclusions, arrived at the conclusion that the Labour Party presidential candidate was the ideal choice for more than 50 percent of respondents, including women, the unemployed, civil servants, private sector participants, and students, especially those in tertiary institutions.

Unlike most polls, Kwakol gathered most of its responses from rural dwellers. “It is important to note that, unlike the majority of the polls in Nigeria, we polled more registered voters in rural Nigeria than registered voters in semi-urban Nigeria and urban Nigeria, respectively,” it stated.

The research agency also used several parameters to arrive at its conclusion—for example, the issue of income classification, educational background, work status, and sex were factors used in arriving at its conclusion.

In summation, 52.80 percent of respondents said that they would vote for the Labour Party, 18.9 percent said they would vote for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), 15.6 percent said they would vote for the All Progressives Congress, and 10.4 percent said that they would vote for the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

It must be pertinent to note that respondents in the exercise cut across the six geopolitical zones and income backgrounds. The spread of the poll had 45 percent of respondents residing in rural areas, while semi-urban areas narrowly edged out urban respondents by a point, with them taking up 28 percent and 27 percent, respectively.

A further breakdown showed that the agency agreed with popular census figures of the numerical strength of the Northwest and Southwest geopolitical zones, with the spread resulting in 25.27 percent and 19 percent, respectively, while the Southsouth and Southeast ended up with 13.44 percent and 12.13 percent, respectively.

Obi gained more acceptance with young people who fell within the age bracket of 18 to 69, with 56 percent of those within the age range of 35 to 49 years and with valid Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) saying that they would vote for him at the February 25 election.

Across the occupational background divide, over 70 percent of respondents working in the private sector said that they would vote for Obi and his Labour Party. This performance was closely followed by civil servants, whose 66.9 percent of respondents said that they would vote for him as president in next week’s Saturday election. 53.4 percent of the students said they would vote for him. This was closely followed by 52.3 percent of unemployed respondents who said they would vote for him.

Another interesting revelation from the Kwakol poll revealed that over 67 percent of respondents earning above N200,000 said that they would vote for Obi. This result was closely followed by the 64.5 percent of respondents who earned between N101,000 and N200,000 and said that they would vote for Obi.

The poll also revealed that over 53 percent of female respondents said that they would vote for Obi, a figure that is more than the APC, PDP, and NNPP figures combined. Despite a slight gender gap, 52.61 percent of male respondents said they would vote for the Obi.

Another parameter used in the analysis revealed that an overwhelming 64.41 percent of respondents with at most a tertiary education said that they would vote for Obi and his Labour Party in next week’s presidential election. The least surprising finding was that 30 percent of uneducated respondents said they would vote for Obi and the Labour Party in next week’s presidential election.

Kwakol provided two scenarios that might be exceptions to the poll results. First, it was agreed that though the sample size of 1,000 respondents wasn’t representative enough, Obi wasn’t totally certain of victory in the next Saturday’s presidential election. Why you may ask?

Elections in Nigeria have always been “characterized by electoral violence, terror violence, sectionalist violence, and voter intimidation,” it stated.

For the first scenario, it was predicted that in the event of violent attacks in the North Central geopolitical zone, voter turnout would decline significantly. “A situation that would have an impact on the number of votes available for the Labour Party and the NNPP,” it said. This leaves the two major political parties to slug it out.

In the north-east geopolitical region, “if an outburst of violence by non-state actors occurs in the northwest, this will significantly reduce voter turnout, and the only parties to benefit from traditional voting patterns will be the PDP and the APC, whose strongholds are in the geopolitical zone.”

For the Northwest, in the event of a breakout of violence, “all the frontline political parties will be adversely affected, but the APC will benefit from the 2019 voting patterns despite a significantly lower voter turnout.”

For the South East geopolitical zone, it feared that concerns from the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) militant wing—the Eastern Security Network (ESN)—could reduce the numerical chance of Obi, while in the South-South zone, Kwakol said that “we do not expect to see an outburst of violence from the militants in the South-South geopolitical zone, but we suspect that hired political thuggery could be a recurring theme during the election, particularly in River and Delta States. We think that this will likely be due to specific interests for the minimum 25 election of votes cast in the two respective states. We also suspect that pro-LP strongholds in the region might be targeted in order to heighten voter anxiety, therefore dampening voter turnout. The LP, more specifically, will rue this probable outcome.

For the South West region, it was argued that if political thuggery erupted, the APC would benefit, reducing the Labour Party’s chances significantly.

In essence, it predicted that “if either of the six scenarios below of electoral violence plays out in any of the geopolitical zones, the probable political party to benefit is the APC, most likely due to a repeat of the 2019 voting patterns that were favorable to the party in hindsight.”

“In the eventuality that the presidency has to be decided by a run-off presidential election round between the two parties with the greatest number of votes cast in their respective favor, and if these two parties happen to be the APC and LP, we predict a very close race with the APC as the eventual winner.

“The APC’s incumbency, reliable voting patterns in its strongholds in the northwest and southwest, and the further polarization of the electorate along time-honored ethnoreligious lines in the midst of reeling voter fatigue will be of advantage to the APC,” it stated.

However, in the event of a likely run-off between the PDP and the Labour Party, Kwakol predicts that while the PDP will be adversely affected by the expected low voter turnout in the Northwest and while the Southwest will back the LP instead of the PDP, it will not be enough for the LP. The PDP will benefit from Nigeria’s time-honored voting patterns along ethnoreligious and sectionalist lines, where the proportion of registered voters across the north will be of utmost importance.

In the event of a likely APC-PDP runoff, “the PDP will benefit from a section of the electorate that is disgruntled with the APC’s same-religion candidate pairing, especially in the south-south and southeast.”

“The PDP will also benefit from a section of the LP strongholds in the south-south and the southeast. The APC will maintain its strongholds in the northwest and the southwest albeit with a reeling voter fatigue. This leaves the key battleground geopolitical zones in the context of this run-off pairing to be the northeast and the north-central zones. Thus, we predict that the PDP will just about edge out the APC in this very tight race,” it predicted.

It created another permutation, stating that in the event of a last-minute alliance between “the APC and the NNPP with the NNPP dropping out of the race, we predict that the APC will be able to gain more support from the NNPP stronghold in the north and northeast, and thus, it is likely that the APC will win the election in the first round.”

In its final permutation, Kwakol argued that “if there is a last-minute alliance between the PDP and the NNPP with the NNPP dropping out of the race, we predict that the PDP will be able to gain more support from the NNPP strongholds in the Northwest. However, we cannot conclude if this is enough for the PDP to win the presidential election in the first round.”

Dsalvo:
What lies? It is you IPOBians who are liars living in denial perpetually. Obi is nothing but a sadistic liar and conman.

I can bet any money he or Obiano are hiding James Nwafor, the Awkuzu SARS genocidal butcher, who is a pal to both governors and worked especially closely with Obi.

You people should stop being shameless liars and apologists for hideous atrocities.it is the reason your SE is a hotbed of death, cannibalism, bestialism, cultist.and barbarity today.

garfield1:
This is childish and petty.so because this man predicted,it will happen so? Who told you political leaders dont influence votes in ss se? Do you realize that every place buhari won in ss se was the stronghold of an apc bigwig? How dare you call tinubu a drug baron? Is obi not a liar and Pandora?
If buhari could get 22% in rivers with only amechi,wike alone will give tinubu 25%.,stop whining and wailing

Ayodele, in a statement by his Media Aide, Oluwatosin Osho, disclosed that Wike is toying with his political future with some of the actions he has taken in recent times.

‘’APC and Tinubu will fail in Rivers State. The support for Tinubu by Wike is a pandemic, anyone the governor supports will definitely fail.

“Wike is playing with his political future and this will have a dent on him. His people will not listen to him because he has passed his boundary.’’

Primate Elijah Ayodele of the INRI Evangelical Spiritual Church, on Sunday, said the Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike will only cause trouble for the All Progressives Congress and its presidential candidate.

The primate said APC and Tinubu will fail in Rivers State.

Ayodele, in a statement by his Media Aide, Oluwatosin Osho, disclosed that Wike is toying with his political future with some of the actions he has taken in recent times.

‘’APC and Tinubu will fail in Rivers State. The support for Tinubu by Wike is a pandemic, anyone the governor supports will definitely fail.

“Wike is playing with his political future and this will have a dent on him. His people will not listen to him because he has passed his boundary.’’

He further disclosed foreseeing fraud by the electoral body.

‘’INEC must be up and doing in this election, lots of hanky-panky games will happen in the commission. I am worried about INEC electronic transmission and BVAS issues.
“There could be means of using the device negatively if some officials of the commission compromise.

“There are cabals that want to frustrate the efforts of INEC, they are not interested in the success of this election,” he said.

Senator Emmanuel Bwacha has won the All Progressives Congress (APC) rerun primary ahead of the March 11 governorship election.

He polled 778 votes to defeat senator Yusuf Yusuf who polled 5 votes out of the 796 accredited delegates.

Two Federal High Courts in Jalingo and Abuja had at various times nullified the APC governorship primary election and ordered for a fresh primary within 14 days.

Bwacha was, however, reinstated as the party’s candidate in the state by the Court of Appeal in Yola. But that decision of the appellate court reinstating Bwacha as the candidate of the APC was challenged at the apex court by fellow aspirant, Sabo Kente.

In a judgement, a five-man panel of the Supreme Court set aside the decision of the Court of Appeal, and upheld the judgement of the trial court which had ordered for a fresh primary election.

The Council of State meeting, presided over by President Muhammadu Buhari on Friday, gave their support to the naira redesign policy but with a caveat that the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Godwin Emefiele, should make new Naira notes available or recirculate the old notes to ease the suffering of Nigerians.

The hybrid meeting which lasted for over four hours at the Council Chambers, Presidential Villa, Abuja, had in attendance former heads of state and president Gen. Yakubu Gowon (retd), Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd) and Goodluck Jonathan, while former President, Olusegun Obasanjo, joined the meeting online.

Two former Chief Justice of the Federation, Alfa Belgore and Mahmud Muhammad, were also in attendance.

Jointly briefing State House correspondents at the end of the meeting, Governors of Taraba, Darius Ishaku , Lagos, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, and the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, AGF Abubakar Malami, said generally the policy was accepted by members but raised concerns about the implementations.

Ishaku said: “The CBN was advised to make money available in quantum. The old money can also be recirculated to ease the suffering of the poorest of the poor.”

Sanwo-Olu, on his part said that Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmood Yakubu, and Inspector General of Police (IGP), briefed the council on a state of preparedness for the 2023 general elections, and assured that they were fully prepared.

Malami said: “We are on course as far as election preparedness is concerned.”

Details later…

CoronaVirusRelo:
Jobless Obidients!

Look at how they all look ill, hungry, malnourished, dirty and unkept.

Lots need food and basic vitamins.