₦airaland Forum

The regulatory agency for universities in Nigeria, the National Universities Commission has ordered a closure of universities across the country to enable students to participate in the 2023 general elections, The PUNCH reports.

In a letter addressed to vice-chancellors of all universities and directors of inter-university centres, the NUC noted that the directive was based on the directive of the Minister of Education, Adamu Adamu.

“As Vice-Chancellors of all Universities and Director/Chief Executive of Inter-University Centres are quite aware the 2023 General Elections have been scheduled to hold on Saturday February 25, 2023, for the Presidential and National Assembly, and Saturday March 11, 2023 for Gubernatorial and State Assembly, respectively.

“In view of the foregoing and concerns expressed on the security of staff, students and properties of the our respective institutions, the Honourable Minister of Education, Mal. Adama Adamu has following extensive consultations with the relevant security agencies, directed that all Universities and Inter-University Centres be shut down and academic activities be suspended between 22 February and 14th March, 2023.

By Olu Fasan

SO far, my interventions ahead of this month’s presidential election have focused on the critical issues of integrity, character and honesty, and wider existential issues about Nigeria’s unity and stability, which would be threatened if power didn’t shift to the South and, crucially, the South-East and if the pernicious Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket prevailed. Here, I discuss another issue: manifestos of the leading presidential candidates.

In a democracy, a manifesto is the formal contract, a social contract, between the elected and the electors. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, few engage with campaign manifestos. On the one hand, some candidates avoid debates and live interviews to answer critical questions about their manifestos; on the other, the media and experts do little to scrutinise them.

Elsewhere, democracy gets better helping hands. In the UK, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, IFS, would analyse the costs of manifesto promises, and expose un-costed and unrealistic pledges. The British media would seize on the findings and give them maximum coverage to educate voters. In Nigeria, such expert analysis, media exposure and voter-sensitisation rarely exists.

Kudos, then,to the respected think-tank, BudgIT, whose outfit, Civic Hive, extensively analysed, in a report titled “Candidate’s policy and schematic assessments”, the manifestos of the three leading presidential candidates – Peter Obi (Labour), Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Bola Tinubu (APC). Sadly, Civic Hive’s brilliant assessments have not received the traction and coverage that a similar IFS report would have received in the UK. Having read the candidates’ manifestos myself, I agree with much of Civic Hive’s analyses and main conclusions, namely: (1) the candidates’ manifestos largely lack quantifiable commitments; (2) where there are measurable commitments, most are unrealistic; and (3) little or nothing is said about implementation costs and funding. Basically, they fail the key test of any manifesto pledge: how much would it cost and where would the money come from? They also ignore the saying: “If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.”

However, beyond those weaknesses, given what policies and institutions are needed to transform Nigeria, I believe Obi has the best manifesto, the best agenda for government,which, if implemented, would transform Nigeria politically, economically and socially. But the starting point is the candidates’ credibility. And on that, Tinubu has the worst credibility gap. Why? He’s the candidate of a ruling party that has failed woefully.

When Tinubu tagged his manifesto “Renewed Hope 2023”, which hope is he renewing? MKO Abiola’s unfulfilled “Hope 1993”? Or “Hope 2015” blatantly dashed by President Buhari? Certainly, it’s the latter. Many promises in Tinubu’s manifesto – 10 per cent annual GDP growth rate, a post-oil industrial economy, world-class hospitals, ban on medical tourism, restructuring,etc, – were in APC’s 2015 manifesto.

There’s no civilised country where a candidate of a failed ruling party would repeat many old pledges and simply say: “Trust me, I’m different.” As Civic Hive rightly says, Tinubu’s manifesto lacks “bold political and policy direction” and “a vision of the future”.

Atiku? Well, he has a trust problem. Recently, he said: “I will restructure Nigeria in six months.” Really? Does he want to restructure Nigeria by executive orders or through constitutional amendments? If by executive orders, that’s not restructuring. And if by constitutional amendments, well, you can’t credibly restructure Nigeria constitutionally in six months, when two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 state assemblies must approve any amendment.

By contrast, Obi recognises that the radical restructuring he proposes requires a consensus, but says that, as president, he would lead “to help stimulate and attain a genuine and enduring consensus” on the matter. That’s a more honest position on restructuring.

But how do the candidates diagnose the problem? Wrong diagnosis leads to wrong solution. In her book, Fighting Corruption is Dangerous, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, two-time finance minister and current Director-General of the WTO, identifies the following as barriers to Nigeria’s progress: “inappropriate policies, inefficient and non-transparent institutions, corruption, and capture by leaders and rent-seeking elite.” Nigeria, put simply, is an “extractive” state, where a small group of elite dominates and exploits the people.

Well, Obi’s manifesto provides that contextual analysis, saying: ”The problem with Nigeria is elite capture and a faulty political economy.” Unsurprisingly, Tinubu and Atiku do not see it that way. Surely, if you have an Emi lokan sense of entitlement, with unexplained and inexplicable wealth, or if you are a beneficiary of a rent-seeking system, you won’t see Nigeria’s problem as elite capture or an extractive state.

But because Obi sees the problem in a structural sense, his solutions are radical reforms. For instance, on restructuring, a President Obi would not only move most of the 68 items on the exclusive list to the concurrent list, he would ensure that revenue mobilisation and allocation are “bottom up like in most federations across the world”. Thus, states would control their resources, while the Federal Government “will now rely on revenues from taxes collected by states”.

Atiku wants to restructure, but details are hazy. Hence Civic Hive says: “For a candidate who built his messaging on restructuring, the points in the policy document are too thin and lack coherent details.” Tinubu, too, wants to restructure by “devolving more revenues and powers to state and local governments”. Yet, Lagos State House of Assembly, which he teleguides, repeatedly rejected constitutional amendments on local government autonomy!

On wider economic and institutional reforms, Obi would tackle cost of governance by implementing the Oronsanye Report “within the first year of our administration”; unify the exchange rate; “drastically reduce” the debt-servicing and debt-to-revenue ratios; dismantle impediments to free trade; aggressively promote non-oil exports; tackle climate change and drive transition to clean energy.

Neither Atiku nor Tinubu has such plans. Atiku would privatise all refineries and boost the private sector, but says little about supply-side constraints. Tinubu would “break the explicit link between naira expenditure and dollar inflows” and “legislatively suspend the limits on government spending”. He would destroy Nigeria’s economy!

Sadly, when Nigerians elect the next president this month, most won’t vote for a candidate based on his manifesto. But if they did, they would vote for Obi: he has the best plans!

Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, has approved the Yakubu Gowon Stadium in Elekahia, Port Harcourt, for the campaign of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu, slated on February 15, 2023.

The Rivers State Coordinator of Bola Tinubu Campaign Organisation, Tony Okocha, disclosed this at a news briefing in Port Harcourt on Wednesday.

Okocha said all arrangements had been put in place to ensure a hitch-free rally for the APC presidential standard bearer.

Okocha stated that Wike, out of his benevolence, approved the use of the stadium without collecting the required N5m fee prescribed by Executive Order 21 from the campaign council.

He stated, “Wike in his usual magnanimity has granted the approval of an alternate venue, the Yakubu Gowon Stadium, Elekahia, Port Harcourt, for the presidential campaign rally scheduled to hold on February 15, 2023 absolutely free of charge.

“But subject to the issuance of a written guarantee of the safety and security of the facilities at the venue due to the violence recorded in recent rallies by the governorship standard bearer of the party in the state.”

Okocha, who is also the Coordinator, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT-Vangiard in the South-South), said an 11-man committee had been set up to coordinate and ensure the successful hosting of the rally in the state.

He pointed out that the campaign committee in the state had done its homework to ensure that Tinubu wins in the state.

Iamgrey5:
Judiciary don't make laws, they only interprete it.

The legislative arm of government makes laws.

Iamgrey5:
@ emboldened is the disputed part

Cbn doesn't have its own guidelines, it was established by the legislative arm of governormnent.

senatordave1:
You dont need to quote me.I am not bothered about the correctness of the case but the intendment.it is intended to keep on hold the naira swap till after the polls and they will succeed

senatordave1:
The apex court has attained jurisdiction already and its ruling must be obeyed

Iamgrey5:
if that's is the case.

The judiciary are still tasked with interpretation of the law.

The decision taken by CBN is not in the Exclusive list.

Penguin2:
Everything I said in my post reechoed here.

Supreme Court has no jurisdiction over this case. If the plaintiffs were serious, they know that the right place to institute the case is at the High Court.

What the lawyers of Kaduna, Kogi and Zamfara have done is abuse of court process.

Garfield1
Afamed

Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike says the state government has re-issued the approval for the National Working Committee of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to use the Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium in the state to host its presidential campaign rally.

The Rivers State Government had on January 31 withdrawn the initial approval of February 11 on the grounds that credible intelligence and recent development show that the PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation is working in collaboration with the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers.

The government said it understood that the PDP Presidential Campaign Organisation was intending to share the approved facility with the APC whose activities are characterised by violence and destruction.

However, the state PDP Campaign rally in the Ogu/Bolo Local Government Area on Tuesday, Wike said the government reapproved the use of the venue after pleas by many personalities.

The governor also spoke on the crisis in the PDP, even as he faulted the comment by the National Chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu that a member of the G5 visited him (Ayu).

Wike said the claim was false as no member of the group of five PDP governors advocating for the Southern Chairmanship of the party will visit Ayu.

He said nobody can blackmail the G5 governors to drop the political advocacy, because it is a fight they must surely win.

Wike insisted that no man can chase them away from the party they built.

The Rivers governor and for others have consistently demanded the resignation of Ayu as a preoccupation to support PDP flag bearer, Atiku Abubakar.

garfield1:
True.atiku lost in all Muslim dominates states which means northern muslims dont like him.he won xtian areas and obi has eaten deep there.atiku recovering his lost votes in north makes no difference because he still needs one region in the south to win.atiku needs to win the north by 65%,tinubu needs 40%

garfield1:
All obi needs to do is to win nc and sw or share it.north is not mad about atiku the way they are with buhari.they are just managing atiku as a last option

garfield1:
He can win but it is not certain like in sw and se.tinubu has yobe borno,atiku has taraba and Adamawa while gombe bauchi is tight.

garfield1:
I agree...but obi has a good chance with atiku

garfield1:
I agree...but obi has a good chance with atiku

garfield1:
Undecided just as nc is but history and polls shows it is between atiku,tinubu and kwankwaso narrowly

garfield1:
All opinion polls point to obi winning while almost all polls shows tinubu finishing second.but obi is winning in se ss which has a low turnout and tinubu will lead him in ne nw which doubles that of se ss.
In the event that obi gets the highest votes due to high turnout in se/ss and core north is hit by apathy,obi won't meet the spread.assuming he gets 25% in 17 southern states,4 states in nc,kad and two between taraba,Adamawa and gombe,he will have 24 states.but realistically I dont see him getting the spread in osun,ekiti,bayelsa,nasarawa,Adamawa,gombe.I see tinubu having the spread.assuming he has the second highest votes after obi,they will be a runoff...
Obi will still take se/ss.with atiku and kwankwaso out,most of those that voted them in nc will go tinubu.even if they endorse obi,majority of the core north will easily choose Tinubu.so tinubu will win him in a runoff...
In a runoff between obi and atiku,obi has a better chance of winning.atiku will only win ne/nw.



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garfield1:
Obi will win the 5 se states massively,winsome ss states or share it.but atiku is not sure of any nc state,can't win in sw.apart from sokoto,Adamawa,he isn't sure of winning any northern state by a big margin

garfield1:
I can't recall him losing his unit.but he delivered his lga.he lost the battle and won the war,why bother over coins when you have nairas to fight for? T.a orji and atiku also lost their units.even echocho could not deliver his lga.

garfield1:
Onoja delivered his lga and ibaji for bello.him or echocho will succeed bello.many of these north central people are suspicious of Igbo Biafra agenda.
I've always seen ebiras as radicals and extreme.true,igalas are very liberal.okuns are christian radicals more or less.
Apart from ebiras,a lot of core north muslims are pleased with the mm ticket.they see it as a good bargain to handover power to the south.

garfield1:
But if obi is doing well in igala,he would take second.I wonder why ebiras are behind Tinubu,whether its because of Islam or gov bello...
Dekina and ankpa have not given bloc votes for anybody for a long time.sen echocho will get votes from dekina for Tinubu,onoja will deliver olamaboro while audu jun will bring ofu....tajudeen yusuf and melaye will scramble votes for atiku from okun...
If Tinubu wins kogi and niger(he has kwara),he will take north central.

garfield1:
But if obi is doing well in igala,he would take second.I wonder why ebiras are behind Tinubu,whether its because of Islam or gov bello...
Dekina and ankpa have not given bloc votes for anybody for a long time.sen echocho will get votes from dekina for Tinubu,onoja will deliver olamaboro while audu jun will bring ofu....tajudeen yusuf and melaye will scramble votes for atiku from okun...
If Tinubu wins kogi and niger(he has kwara),he will take north central.

garfield1:
Hmm,but originally I thought you said atiku will win kogi na? From what I am seeing,kogi central will go heavily for tinubu.he will win kogi west narrowly but because the okun are almost entirely Christians and pdp is string there,obi and atiku will get some votes.okun has 5 lgas,lokoja and koton karfe are in the west but not Yoruba.even ogori in central is not ebira.
Kogi east should be divided between the three.kogi east has 9 lgas,7 igalas and 2 bassa nupe who will go with Tinubu.those sides near iboland will go with obi.idris,wada will deliver dekina,ankpa for pdp.