₦airaland Forum

British prime minister traveled to the Middle east recently with 8 representative of arm dealers- he knows middle east govt have every reasons to arm themselves in the present climate. . . Plus all Gaddafi's arm were gotten from Britain.

I just don't know the world to characterize this.

what polls? with 40 participant.

Kobojunkie:
I have read some of the write-ups on why SAP did not work for us, and I came away believing that the SAP policies themselves were not the issue, but that the problems came in at the point of implemention of those policies. Like I said, m[b]any of the policies were really commonsense ideas[/b], and if you will agree, other non SAP commonsense ideas we have tried to implement over the years, have on the most part failed. Not because the ideas were themselves the problem but because our Government was too corrupt to see these ideas through the correct implementation of these ideas to completion. Many of the developing nations that SAP has failed for are also countries where corrupt regimes remain in power at the detriment of the people, and other non SAP programs have also failed to help the same people.

It is like building a bridge to connect two towns divided by a river. A Bridge makes real good sense as it opens up communication and also helps improve on the lives of the people in the area. If however, the people in charge of handling the project, from the two towns are more interested in how much they can make from the deal, than on completing the bridge, you are bound to end up with a failed project. Do we then conclude that the initial idea was a bad one? Or do we state that the problem was simply corruption, as we know it is?

I agree but I also think you need to remember what the situation in NIgeria was back during the years we are speaking of. We needed to make cuts and I don't have the exact numbers but I believe education was to be cut but these cuts were not meant to be permanent. During this past recession a la the recovery, many countries have had to do about the same to save money.

So, nevermind that the Irish got themselves in the mess they are in, it is wrong for Britain to try to gain, even if just 2%, from the loan it lends to Ireland, for it's(Ireland's) recovery?

Why do you have to get into what you know nothing about ? No insult meant but this is plain foolishness and am so upset by it. SAP programs were failures from the point of design not point of implementation.

manny4life:
It's ok, you don't have to be easily convinced, well if you need to do some homework and need some materials, look at what Nigeria's deficits are and what is causing the deficits and how CBN is trying to offset these deficits. That should make a good research case and findings.

I refuse to buy into your "CBN is trying to offset these deficits" argument - it is on paper but if you understand anything about Nigeria economics "on ground" you may come to my conclusion that its just another lie. What deficit are we talking about? trade deficit? come on manny4life

Kobojunkie:
@Manny4life, I don't care of the demand or none of the naira. I am more concerned about why we are spending to prop it up. Over and over now, I have mentioned this because that is what I want to know the why of . . .

We are not spending to prop it. Thats is a wrong premise - you well understand the situation in Nigeria after bank MDs were sacked/crash of stock exchange and complete no confidence. Sanusi declared some banks distresses and injected funds into the bank - then confidence dropped again and there was a continuous call for lending . .  This is what led to the increase in Naira supply. I believe Sanusi was trying to mitigate the effect of his clean up duty thence increased supply of Naira.

@Kobojunkie

Next time don't take funny quote from anyone. The idea that the CBN would deplete foreign reserve in bid to hold up the value of the Naira is laughable.

The increase in Naira supply has nothing to do with holding up the value of the Naira - that's a different issue

OAM4J:
Am not keen about those economic syntax or semantics. Fact remain we are making money (whether it is from sales, earnings, revenue or not). My concern is what have we done with that money? And what do we have to show for it? And why do need to spend more than that? on what?

For me we can not begin to to talk of real developments and building industries and infrastructures if we can not account for what we are making.

I was expecting us to see this as consequences of spending more than 70% of your budget on recurrent expenditures and having to borrow to to finance more than 50% of your capital expenditure. Our government is wasteful and we must cut down the cut down the cost of running government otherwise, whether we agree with IMF or not, if things continue this way, we will soon be carrying Naira on sacks to get $1000 because the reserve is bound to finish if we are not saving.

You've done well to the level of your understanding. It is lack of Understanding that brings about the difference between rich and poor countries today, it that ignorance that keeps us where we are - understanding is everything. Someone once argued " since money is in paper form and it makes once rich why are there still poor countries, why can't money be printed? I humbly place your argument into that category.

We are not creating wealth . . .

Propping up Naira would be to artificially strengthen the currency, in Nigeria? LOL

Kobojunkie:
@OAM4J's question, something similar to what I have been asking all this while.  We have lost billions to keeping the naira where it is and yes, we have not been producing any real goods or services either. Why continue to loose these billions? Why not let the naira fall as it would.

Can you explain to me how we lost billions by keeping Naira where it is? There is a difference in saying "we are losing billions" and "we will gain billions".

The truth is that folks on here don't understand the concept of money in economic sense. Money refers to the volume of economic activities not paper form. You can print paper money like Zimbabwe  and remain poor.

manny4life:
I am not blaming anyone, I merely saying the truth from what I see. Mr. Soludo did, previous years back, but now CBN is not in his hands, is it? The truth remains what is Nigerian servicing or producing? If Nigeria is producing, what % level of our output represents foreign investment in our GDP?

That is the only issue here as far as i am concern.

OAM4J:
Am surprised we are spending more time debating the recommended solutions from IMF without debating at the real issues themselves.

At the time of [b]oil boom, fact remains that we are spending far more than[b] our earnings[/b] - WHY?

What exactly are we spending our earnings on? What do we have to show for it?

Why & What justification does CBN has in using the reserve to stabilise the Naira?

Something is definitely wrong somewhere, and until we we deal with the real cancer eating our economy, we will just be addressing the symptoms with kids' gloves[/b]

Everything is wrong.

Our earning - my friend we have no real earnings. What we have is money derived from sale of our resources. Tell me a powerfull economy that achieved real growth - not figures- from selling off resources. Russia never really experienced growth until it moved into Production, now she is part of of emerging world not because of her gas but production and sales. Even all through the cold war years Russia was never an economic power because all she does was sell off resources without creating wealth.  Creation of wealth is what empowers the people, what creates the bourgeois needed to drive the economy. you sell off resources and share the money among governor and senators - use less than10 % of the amount sold for development and you are talking about economy. Economy is the system of production and distribution and consumption, we have none.  Don't be deceived.

We have to start allover again. Yes we need true capitalism in Nigeria where government gets out of the way and allow those who owns the oil sell them and pay tax for it, create policies that will make people flourish. The government needs to be hungry for the people's tax not people's resources.

To follow up on EzeUche "how is it that they are promoting free trade in Africa while closing their market to Africa Exporters?

Mark Malloch Brown, former head of the United Nations Development Program, estimated that farm subsidies cost Africa countries about USD$50 billion a year in lost agricultural exports: "It is the extraordinary distortion of global trade, where the West spends $360 billion a year on protecting its agriculture with a network of subsidies and tariffs that costs developing countries about US$50 billion in potential lost agricultural exports. Fifty billion dollars is the equivalent of today's level of development assistance."

United State is in the forefront of free market promoters yet spends the highest amount of subsidy on farmers that any other country on earth. In fact, after introducing reforms to reduce subsidies in 1996, the United States has since increased its level of protectionism. The 2002 farm bill further increased federal subsidies—to some farmers by more than 80 percent. Across the Atlantic, France, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal have resisted changes to the European Union’s broad agreement on farmer payments, known as the common agricultural policy (CAP).

Agriculture and fisheries subsidies receive over 40% of European Union budget. As the EU budget is around €120 billion, this means that €48 billion is spent on these subsidies, or about 0.3% of the entire EU's GDP. Since 1992, the EU's Common Agricultural Policy has undergone major change as subsidies have been decoupled from production. About €30 billion is spent as direct support for farmers (the Single Farm Payment). The next major reform of the CAP is scheduled to run from 2013. The OECD estimates that EU market price supports in 2002 exceeded $57 billion. EU producer support costs (in cluding subsidies, tariffs, and other protectionist measures) in 2002 came to over $100 billion, compared to about $40 billion for the United States. Oxfam recently estimated that British taxpayers alone pay £3.9 billion ($7 billion) per year to maintain the CAP.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture paid out over $12 billion in subsidies in 2002. The OECD estimates that the cost of U.S. market price supports for agricultural products—which include tariffs, quotas,and price guarantees—amounted to over $15 billion in 2002.

Currently, the United States pays around $20 billion per year to farmers in direct subsidies as "farm income stabilization" via U.S. farm bills. These bills date back to the economic turmoil of the Great Depression with 1922 Grain Futures Act, the 1929 Agricultural Marketing Act and the 1933 Agricultural Adjustment Act creating a tradition of government support.

For every dollar U.S. farmers earn, 62 cents comes from some form of government, with total aid in 2009 from all levels of government adding up to $180.8 billion.

Top states for direct farm subsidies in US include Iowa ($501 million), Illinois ($454 million), and Texas ($397 million). Direct payments of subsidies are limited to $40,000 per person or $80,000 per couple.

America operates the highest Agricultural protectionism the world has ever known. In the 2002, Farm Bill for every bushel of wheat sold farmers were paid an extra 52 cents and guaranteed a price of 3.86 from 2002–03 and 3.92 from 2004–2007. That is, if the price of wheat in 2002 was 3.80 farmers would get an extra 58 cents per bushel (52 cents plus the $0.06 price difference)

In am ready to take the other side of the argument that Niara needs to be strengthened not weakened. Like manny4life rightfully pointed out: the only ready why foreign reserve is an issue is because of the strength of the Naira in relative to other Africa currency, if it lost its value reserve will deflate fast.  

Oil seems to be our problems it's propping up this false growth (IMF are only concerned with statistics- read the report and the growth fugues keep coming up like it is real growth ) and leave the government with less incentive to develop other sector "after all they can sell oil and make money" The government isn't concerned about tax, oil is there to bring revenue. We are occupied on how to spend money not how to create them. Oil is just like foreign aid to me - it is a real problem in Nigeria today.

EzeUche_:
The IMF and World Bank destroyed many African economies through the SAPs. I will never forgive them for this. We are still feeling the effects of their policies that wrecked throughout the continent and cause many Africans to go hungry and lose their life savings. Our money became worthless!

They told us to open up our economies to free trade.

They told us to devalue our currency.

They told us to lower the allocation to our education and social programs.

They told us to stop subsidizing agricultural sectors.

They told us to privatize state owned industries.

Now what do we have to show for this? A county that has retrogressed, in which more people were wealthier in the past than now.

I never knew there are intelligent folks on here. IMF and World bank have 60% of the poverty problem in Africa today. To support your point on free trade - after independent, Africa agriculture grow-ed with 8% average every year. For instance Hydén (2005) notes that “between 1966 and 1970 net agricultural export from the region averaged 1.3 million tons per year” (148). Agriculture if you remember was the backbone of Africa's growth before the discovery of numerous resources.

IMF and World bank told us that free trade is the answer and we should stop given out incentive. The negative impact of SAP program was coated with unfair trade practices on the part of the EU and the United States. The Structural adjustment led to sequence of policy modification across Africa that favored subsidized U.S. and European Union agricultural dumping and Asian exporters over African farmers. Please understand that even this period America and Europe farmers remain the most subsidized farmers until date. Europe spend billions on subsidies, a British cattle for example is subsidized with 2 pounds everyday.

A chief economist of World Bank accepted that the program was a failure, in his words, “We did not think that the human costs of these programs could be so great, and the economic gains would be so slow in coming”

EzeUche_:
The reason why the IMF is saying this, is because the U.S. is getting worried about oil prices rising as the Arab world is going through a lot of pricing. This of course will push crude prices into the sky. That is why they need Nigeria to devalue of currency, so they can purchase our oil cheaply.

As much as i think you came on too blunt you are actually making sense to me.

Kobojunkie

I read the direct IMF article not the newspaper edited copy. The reason given for that suggestion is asinine given the realities in Nigeria. And please do not compare China and Nigeria in this, it worked for China because of the nature of their export which is not raw material but manufactured products. China currency manipulation is to get more market for their product by making it cheaper in relative to America's. Do you understand that? If you do now tell me "what are we producing that we need more market? if you can't answer that then trow out the Chinese argument.

IMF refused to explain how devaluation of Naira will jumpstart a non-oil sector or increase our reserve/Excess Crude Account. IMF also said Nigeria’s economic outlook remains positive - the problem i have with the growth figures coming from Africa countries is that they are[b] not really growth figures[/b]. One would wounder why Africans keeps bagging the highest growth rate in the world and moving backward at the same time. Consider a government that invest nothing in his country's infrastructure only sell the natural resources and divert the funds, such will be awarded with growth figures according to the volume of resources sold. Comparing this to growth figure created by individual manufacturers exporting products abroad, it is certainly not the same thing.

Nigeria is not growing. " The non-oil primary deficit has increased by 5 percentage points to 32 percent of non-oil GDP" the question becomes how are we growing,  Oil revenue? well there is nothing to show for it so forget about the growth rate it is just volume of oil sold.

Kobojunkie:
On Devaluation, why has it worked for China, and why can't we make it work for us in similar fashion?

The way I see it, it makes sense to believe that with all the GROWTH we have been recording in our books for the past 2 years(average of 7% every quarter), increasing manufacturing and devaluing the naira would aid our economy in a good way.

Always assuming everything is a ploy has lead us to close our eyes while the rest of the world, even common china has gone past us.

China is pursuing a policy of reducing the value of its currency to try and boost growth, especially in its key exporting industries. This will keep Chinese export cheaper because dollar will be stronger than Chinese currency hence makes Chinese export cheaper. To bring this case into the IMF call for devaluation shows you lack understanding in this particular issue. Not to mention that America and IMF are angered by Chinese currency manipulation.

I think it will be foolish to devalue our currency just because of IMF's proposal. If  we can draw a link between devaluation and growth, then we can have a conversation so far there is no sense whatsoever in what IMF's talking about. I also think it is natural for someone to bring the lost decade of 80S into the picture of how IMF SAP did great damage to Africa's social sector. Nigeria is the best case in IMF SAP. Go to Gambia, Ivory coast and Mali. Gambia already started to export rice before IMF advise was taken and the trend reversed to importation up to this day.

The solution to our problem is me and you. We do not have to wait for any IMF to come tell us what to do and it get irritating reading folks backing IMF for no reason. If there is a logic associated with the claim, we can talk.

Revolution can be defined in Political and Sociological terms. In the former it is "an overthrow or repudiation and the thorough replacement of an established government or political system by the people governed" while in the later its "a radical and pervasive change in society and the social structure, especially one made suddenly and often accompanied by violence".

French revolution retains both definition but the Egypt's case was strictly political.

IBB was never taken out by the people so that doesn't fall into the camp of revolution.

Who is he blaming? He is the sole architect of our current order

Kobojunkie:
^^^^ I am sorry but I don't understand what you are suggesting at all. We all know of the grand illusions people claim of Privatization but FACT is we do not have a privatized system yet and our government is the reason for this.

That Government is the problem elsewhere is no reason why people should suddenly just shut up ---- if you do that, your dream of privatization will never be realized for one, because Government will likely see that as endorsement of the bad job it is doing.

This thread is not about whether we want less government or more government. You may want to create yet another thread to continue arguing that one.

The tread is about drop of power output which is part of a bigger problem. Electricity i would say is the biggest problem in Nigeria today and i am suggesting that government get a hell out of electricity business and allow private individuals set up power companies. How can you detach the two? i went further to draw example on how government cannot manage anything be it education, telecommunication or what have you.

The cry for electricity has been a long one - governments commitment to electricity has also been a long standing one from OBJ, Ya'adua and now Goodluck. I am quite certain private companies can do better with what's already depleted for this course. My call is for people to see that government has not done anything right in the past to be trusted with this, people's cry should he focused not on government provision of electricity but for privatization. And remember the number of megawatts is not necessarily the issue here, maintenance and management is the real issue. In both metrics govt is zero.

Nuhu Ribadu has very poor social and speaking skills . . .

Government is the problem everywhere - be it America, UK, Ghana or Nigeria. government should stay off and let private order prevail.

Why would Nigeria government get involved in electricity in the first place?  it can issue license and benefit from tax - private companies will do it  better and cheaper, government cannot manage anything not only in Nigeria. It takes private sectors to build good economies. If no one is interested invite foreign investors.  Nigerians are just crying for nothing - tell me what government has handled well in the past. Is it telecommunication? We only dreamt of phone until GSM came along and the government line (MTEL) is still not working.

This is mental disorder to me - we are all shouting for nothing. Electricity, water and even education should be privatized. Government can assist by providing student loan - just look at government owned universities in Nigeria and look at the private owned. . . More government is the problem not the solution.

Am not surprise at all.

I reserve my comment

I find it interesting some folks would say homosexuality is based on morality - just like Sharia for example - and still turn around to condemn the act.  Morality is a highly subjective personal issue- its your personal standard shaped by you environment, belief and experience. To program everyone according to your personal standard is excessive and i will go on to say its the only problem we have  in the world today. It is the reason for suicide bombing, the reason why America and friends keep meddling in everyone's business, the reason for the so called civilization mission (if there was any such thing).

That said, if you transpose individual morality into community shared understanding it becomes norms. So you can have the argument both ways because most Africa countries, Uganda inclusive, forbid gays, what gays in such communities are trying to do (if seen as shared understanding) is what they are accusing others of, that is imposing their strange act to the community thereby forcing people to accept a foreign culture that is against the shared understanding.

Bottom line is WE do not accept this in Africa - that is the real question for me. I do not condemn the act, but i do in Africa because it is against our shared understanding. Get that

Jonathan wants everyone on his side - he should do something right and quit playing politics.

1025:
@yeswecan
in all your long notes of refferences, i was waiting to see u mention United Arab Emirates who once borrowed money from nigeria. is the west more present in africa than they are in saudi arabia, kuwait, qatar, and UAE to mention but a few. the first step to changing things here will be readiness to accept responsibilities.
obasanjo had 8 uninterupted years to make things right but maybe the west denied him, abi?
prof mourice iwu who made a mess of our electorial system could be a westerner?
our darkness does not stop on our skins but went further to our hearts and brains otherwise tell me why mugabe will force white farmers out of zimbabwe only for the lands to lie waste while hunger visit his citizens door to door. why is it that south africa who allowed whites to remain are the most developed in africa?
until nigerians especially our rullers stand up to accept their failures and change their attitudes to politics and corruption, nothing will happen here for good.
i don't know your age in the early 80s when ghanians left their country in search of food. today, the reward of the sacrfices of Jerry rawlins is what they are enjoying and if things continue this ways, nigerians will soon be filling up and sleeping at ghana embassies to obtain visa to ghana and then, we will be happy to hear you explain with long notes on how the west changed your understanding of life.
unfortunately, we celebrate everything including failure. did u watch the reception party held on behalf of alamesiaye on his return to pdp? it is a shame that thousands of people, men and women cld sow uniforms to court to show their solidarities for bode george who is filling appeal from his jail room.
have u been to our registeration centers to see the kind of laptops in use and then u will begin to ask where our N87b has gone to.
maleysia's imported their palm oil from nigeria and today, it is their major source of income but i know the west did not allow our own to be useful, abi?
we are doomed and corruption is the chief occupant of our aso rock hence we cannot grow like others.

In my piece i blamed western led Africa policies and advocated an independent pattern of development/policy making based on common sense and guided by practical experience and observation rather than western theory - that my message . I am glad you gave example of saudi arabia, kuwait, qatar, and UAE  - these are Arabic speaking countries that followed a cultural and independent pattern of development not the so called modernization theory.  I can see you picked cases like OBJ and Maurice Iwu's failure - those are tactical issues, the problem with our country is structural, quit searching for little tactical error if the foundation is bad there must be tactical issues. It is like building a house on a shaky foundation . . This is how Good luck Jonathan appointed an INEC chairman and Nigerians were happy - they missed it because we have to revisit the issue every 4 yrs . .  we need a structural solution where it is done forever.

Your whole rant  post is focused on little things that can be fixed by just a structural shift - you do not understand the problem my friend- In Ghana as you may know Jerry rawlings killed the OBJS and IBBs of before he transited to democracy. Ghana is not still a perfect example all there is in Ghana is steady power supply and free election - stop referring to Ghana like its a success story.

Kilode?!:
I know almost every liberal minded person here will say it's unfair and I agree it is. But we can negotiate from unfair to fair, at least they will have a seat at the cultural revolution table. Hopefully.

Unfair is what I'm doing right now: speaking and responding back to y'all my Nigerian brothers in a foreign language, although I think in a different one. No one asked me, no one asked my ancestors before they got subjugated. that is unfair.

BTW I offered that as a worst case scenario, I'm not Ghengis Khan.

In as much as i agree with you - i still think you are oversimplifying the cultural issue .

SapeleGuy:
We can't ignore the fact that rightly or wrongly a lot of people believe that it is the panacea to our problems. Whilst I do not agree with that view point, we need to draw a line under the matter.

Your policy can not thrive in an atmosphere of mistrust. A corruption amnesty will provide that enabling environment.

I would argue that the formulation of policy has not been a problem, it is the implentation and monitoring of policies and projects that we have struggled with.

Policy matters not just formation but implementation as well, and your corruption cry falls squarely into the policy arena - people avoid corruption not because they are necessarily good but for penalty avoidance. so you see policy is the right word . .

fstranger1:
Well, look at at this way:

Where do we want to be in the next 100 years?

What kind of Nigeria do we intend leaving for our great grand children.

If we start now, there is the possibility of creating a new Nigeria capable of standing toe to toe with other world powers. On the other hand, if we continued with the same western ideology and culture that has relegated us to the background, we will never, till eternity, take our rightful position in the comity of nations, we will remain insignificant as we have always been and continue to be the laughing-stock of the rest of the world.

The best option is the cultural revolution my Oga Kilode? suggested. I agree, it is the more difficult of the options available. But, it is the only option capable of lifting us out of this doldrums.  It wont be easy; if it were easy every one would do it. And, nothing good comes easy anyway.

Start what? please identify one area that needs revolution - your premise is a pretty ambiguous one and you should know it. Do you seek to reform the education system , religion or what ? Please tell me . .  be clear

SapeleGuy:
On the issue of corruption, this nation has been going around in ever increasing circles for 50 years. A corruption amnesty is required. Bring the money back home to be used to develop industries, instead of making other countries great - for this forfeiture the culprits will be spared a lifetime in jail. Anybody who is caught after the amnesty should face life imprisonment.

You give too much weight to corruption. Is corruption the cause of hunger? vast majority of people in Africa do not pay taxes so just forget the corruption thing . . our problem is more on policy matters.

Kilode?!:
Actually I will use the word hybrid differently, an hybrid comprising of the various cultural ideologies we share in Nigeria can achieve it. Our ethnic similarities are much more closer than the ones have with the Europeans whose thought and ideas seem to permeate every facets of our current National processes.

And we can always "subjugate" the smaller ethnicities, the Oyinbos did it to us now. . .

subjugate small ethnicities- that's unfair.

It won't be easy to get one uniform cultural ideology in a country like ours- that's my point.  We cannot Roll Back the state, we are already deep in the western lane that i think any systematic arrangement to roll us back will be a disaster.