₦airaland Forum

TODAY IS A RISK ON DAY

We look forward to seeing a positive close in the market today.

Best sectors to look for winning stocks: SEMICONDUCTORS DEFENCE COMMUNICATIONS

The penny stocks that are showing heavy gains in premarket may not be good for our portfolio. We should follow leading/improving sector stocks tat are in uptrend.

**TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COMMENTS**
What will the market likely do today!!!

***IRAN/US PEACE TALKS***

The Iran/US talk produced no result. But full hostilities will not resume till the end of ceasefire period.

Looking at the demnds from both sides, it seems IRAN is asking for some conditions that are outside the control of America: like the Lebanon/Israel issue (the 2 Countries are not in this meeting), America bases in other Countries (the Countries with the bases are to make the decisions themselves)

**UPDATE IRAN/US PEACE TALKS ENDS IN STALEMATE**

As of April 12, 2026, the historic, direct peace talks in Islamabad between the United States and Iran have concluded without reaching an agreement.

Following 21 hours of intensive face-to-face negotiations at the Serena Hotel, the U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, is now departing Pakistan.

Key Outcomes and Sticking Points

Failed Deal: Vice President Vance stated that while the U.S. came in good faith, they did not see a "fundamental commitment of will" from Iran regarding nuclear weapon development. He emphasized that the U.S. has delivered its "best and final offer".

Strait of Hormuz: Control and reopening of the waterway remained a primary point of "serious disagreement". Iran's foreign ministry cited U.S. "excessive demands" and insisted on maintaining its military gains in the region.

Trump's Stance: President Donald Trump commented that it makes "no difference" to him if a deal is reached, asserting that "regardless of what happens, we win".

Regional Context: The talks took place during a fragile 14-day ceasefire following a six-week-old war. Despite the negotiations, Israel has maintained its commitment to continue fighting Iranian proxies in Lebanon.

Delegations Involved

United States: Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and advisor Jared Kushner.

Iran: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Mediator: The talks were brokered and hosted by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

While this round ended without a breakthrough, talks could potentially resume in the future, though "serious disagreements" persist on almost all technical details.

**US 15 POINTS PROPOSAL**

The U.S. 15-point proposal, presented during the high-stakes Islamabad talks, was described as Washington’s "best and final offer" to end the six-week-old war. While the full text was not officially released, reports indicate it was a "maximalist" framework focused on the total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure in exchange for economic relief.

Core Provisions of the U.S. 15-Point Plan

The framework included:

Nuclear Dismantlement: Iran would decommission facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.

Zero Enrichment: A permanent ban on domestic uranium enrichment, even for civilian purposes, with all existing stockpiles handed over to the IAEA.

Strait of Hormuz: The immediate reopening of the waterway as a "free maritime zone" under international, rather than Iranian, management.

Missile Limits: Strict restrictions on the range and number of ballistic missiles Iran could possess.

Regional Activity: An end to all funding and arming of proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

Recognition of Israel: A politically sensitive demand for Iran to acknowledge Israel's right to exist.

Ceasefire Structure: An initial 30-day ceasefire to finalize the broader deal.

The "Carrots" Offered

To incentivize these concessions, the U.S. proposed:

Comprehensive Sanctions Relief: Lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, including the UN "snapback" mechanism.

Civilian Nuclear Support: Assistance with electricity generation at the Bushehr plant to replace the lost domestic enrichment capabilities.

Asset Release: The potential unfreezing of billions in Iranian assets held abroad.

Why the Talks Failed

Vice President JD Vance cited a lack of "fundamental commitment" from Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Iran countered with its own 10-point plan, insisting on its right to enrich uranium, continued military control over the Strait of Hormuz (with the right to collect transit fees), and the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the region.

The 21-hour marathon ended with both sides departing Islamabad, leaving the current two-week ceasefire in a highly precarious state.

Would you like to see the specific details of Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal for comparison?

Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal

Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal, presented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, served as their official framework for the Islamabad talks. While President Trump initially called it a "workable basis," the specific terms were ultimately rejected by the U.S. delegation as a "non-starter".

**The 10 Clauses of Iran's Proposal**

The proposal demanded:

Guaranteed Non-Aggression: A formal, binding commitment from the U.S. and its allies to never attack Iran again.

Permanent End to Hostilities: Moving beyond a temporary ceasefire to a permanent peace agreement.

Hormuz Transit Tolls: Continued Iranian oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, including a proposed $2 million fee per ship, to be split with Oman.

Domestic Uranium Enrichment: International recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes on its own soil.

Lifting of All Sanctions: The immediate removal of all primary U.S. sanctions and secondary sanctions against third parties.

Withdrawal of U.S. Forces: The exit of all U.S. combat forces from military bases and deployment points across the Middle East.

Termination of International Resolutions: The rescinding of all UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions targeting Iran's nuclear program.

War Reparations: Full financial compensation for damages caused during the six-week conflict, often framed as "reconstruction funds" derived from Hormuz transit fees.

Protection of the "Axis of Resistance": An end to all military operations against Iranian-allied groups, specifically demanding a halt to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Binding International Law: Any final agreement must be codified as binding international law through the UN Security Council to prevent future U.S. withdrawal.

**The "Make or Break" Conflict**

The primary reason for the talks' failure was the mismatch between these points and the U.S. 15-point plan. For instance, while Iran demanded the right to enrich uranium, the U.S. insisted on zero enrichment and the total removal of all nuclear material. Additionally, Iran insisted that the Lebanon conflict was included in the truce, a point explicitly denied by the U.S. and Israel.

The current two-week ceasefire is set to expire soon, and with no deal in place, both sides have indicated they are prepared to resume military operations.

***IRAN/US PEACE TALKS***

The Iran/US talk produced no result. But full hostilities will not resume till the end of ceasefire period.

Looking at the demnds from both sides, it seems IRAN is asking for some conditions that are outside the control of America: like the Lebanon/Israel issue (the 2 Countries are not in this meeting), America bases in other Countries (the Countries with the bases are to make the decisions themselves)

**UPDATE IRAN/US PEACE TALKS ENDS IN STALEMATE**

As of April 12, 2026, the historic, direct peace talks in Islamabad between the United States and Iran have concluded without reaching an agreement.

Following 21 hours of intensive face-to-face negotiations at the Serena Hotel, the U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, is now departing Pakistan.

Key Outcomes and Sticking Points

Failed Deal: Vice President Vance stated that while the U.S. came in good faith, they did not see a "fundamental commitment of will" from Iran regarding nuclear weapon development. He emphasized that the U.S. has delivered its "best and final offer".

Strait of Hormuz: Control and reopening of the waterway remained a primary point of "serious disagreement". Iran's foreign ministry cited U.S. "excessive demands" and insisted on maintaining its military gains in the region.

Trump's Stance: President Donald Trump commented that it makes "no difference" to him if a deal is reached, asserting that "regardless of what happens, we win".

Regional Context: The talks took place during a fragile 14-day ceasefire following a six-week-old war. Despite the negotiations, Israel has maintained its commitment to continue fighting Iranian proxies in Lebanon.

Delegations Involved

United States: Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and advisor Jared Kushner.

Iran: Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Mediator: The talks were brokered and hosted by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

While this round ended without a breakthrough, talks could potentially resume in the future, though "serious disagreements" persist on almost all technical details.

**US 15 POINTS PROPOSAL**

The U.S. 15-point proposal, presented during the high-stakes Islamabad talks, was described as Washington’s "best and final offer" to end the six-week-old war. While the full text was not officially released, reports indicate it was a "maximalist" framework focused on the total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure in exchange for economic relief.

Core Provisions of the U.S. 15-Point Plan

The framework included:

Nuclear Dismantlement: Iran would decommission facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow.

Zero Enrichment: A permanent ban on domestic uranium enrichment, even for civilian purposes, with all existing stockpiles handed over to the IAEA.

Strait of Hormuz: The immediate reopening of the waterway as a "free maritime zone" under international, rather than Iranian, management.

Missile Limits: Strict restrictions on the range and number of ballistic missiles Iran could possess.

Regional Activity: An end to all funding and arming of proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.

Recognition of Israel: A politically sensitive demand for Iran to acknowledge Israel's right to exist.

Ceasefire Structure: An initial 30-day ceasefire to finalize the broader deal.

The "Carrots" Offered

To incentivize these concessions, the U.S. proposed:

Comprehensive Sanctions Relief: Lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, including the UN "snapback" mechanism.

Civilian Nuclear Support: Assistance with electricity generation at the Bushehr plant to replace the lost domestic enrichment capabilities.

Asset Release: The potential unfreezing of billions in Iranian assets held abroad.

Why the Talks Failed

Vice President JD Vance cited a lack of "fundamental commitment" from Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Iran countered with its own 10-point plan, insisting on its right to enrich uranium, continued military control over the Strait of Hormuz (with the right to collect transit fees), and the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the region.

The 21-hour marathon ended with both sides departing Islamabad, leaving the current two-week ceasefire in a highly precarious state.

Would you like to see the specific details of Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal for comparison?

Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal

Iran’s 10-point counter-proposal, presented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, served as their official framework for the Islamabad talks. While President Trump initially called it a "workable basis," the specific terms were ultimately rejected by the U.S. delegation as a "non-starter".

**The 10 Clauses of Iran's Proposal**

The proposal demanded:

Guaranteed Non-Aggression: A formal, binding commitment from the U.S. and its allies to never attack Iran again.

Permanent End to Hostilities: Moving beyond a temporary ceasefire to a permanent peace agreement.

Hormuz Transit Tolls: Continued Iranian oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, including a proposed $2 million fee per ship, to be split with Oman.

Domestic Uranium Enrichment: International recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes on its own soil.

Lifting of All Sanctions: The immediate removal of all primary U.S. sanctions and secondary sanctions against third parties.

Withdrawal of U.S. Forces: The exit of all U.S. combat forces from military bases and deployment points across the Middle East.

Termination of International Resolutions: The rescinding of all UN Security Council and IAEA resolutions targeting Iran's nuclear program.

War Reparations: Full financial compensation for damages caused during the six-week conflict, often framed as "reconstruction funds" derived from Hormuz transit fees.

Protection of the "Axis of Resistance": An end to all military operations against Iranian-allied groups, specifically demanding a halt to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Binding International Law: Any final agreement must be codified as binding international law through the UN Security Council to prevent future U.S. withdrawal.

**The "Make or Break" Conflict**

The primary reason for the talks' failure was the mismatch between these points and the U.S. 15-point plan. For instance, while Iran demanded the right to enrich uranium, the U.S. insisted on zero enrichment and the total removal of all nuclear material. Additionally, Iran insisted that the Lebanon conflict was included in the truce, a point explicitly denied by the U.S. and Israel.

The current two-week ceasefire is set to expire soon, and with no deal in place, both sides have indicated they are prepared to resume military operations.

WHAT WILL THE MARKET DO TODAY- TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COMMENTS!!!

US MARKET STOCKS BETTER TO TRADE THAN COMMODITIES/CRYPTOS
I look at my old cryptos watchlist, I cringe when I observed that a lot of cryptos have disappeared (meaning people have lost their money).

Same also applies to commodities, like in this war time, I am sure no trader can survive if brent moved against you between yesterday and early this morning.

There seems to be some stocks that this war cannot move against at least fir the medium timeframe. Although they equally have factors that can affect them, but now they seems detached from this war Volatility, an example is "TER".

WHAT CAN WE DO ON A DAY LIKE THIS?
We stay on the sidelines!!!

Then we monitor our portfolio ensuring that we are not too overweight to the negative industry.

US MARKET OPENS TODAY, LIKELY TO BE ON THE BULLISH SIDE!
The positive opening may end up with pullback as IRAN seems not to be committed to any peace deal at the moment.

It is looking like IRAN may be the Architect of their own downfall by being too difficult, how many Countries are they going to fight against!!! I am sure it the neighbouring Countries equally start to throw bombs IRAN will not be able to cope with the onslaught!!! We wait and see.

WHEN MARKET OPEN TOMMORROW- THIS IS OUR EXPECTED MARKET DIRECTION.

WE ARE FORECASTING SOME GOOD RESULTS IN QUARTER 1 2026
One of our forecasts this Quarter 1 2026 is that OANDO is likely to make real profits tht will not be made up substantially of accounting/estimates revisions. But if the revisions still appears again, then we may see a "bomb" of a result for 31 March 2026.

We wait and see!!!

MARKET OPENS ON MONDAY FOR US MARKET TRADING
Market likely to open bearish.

But if there any news that negotiation is positive on opening of Hormuz Strait, we may see a positive market.

But for now oil is one of the best sectors to buy.

Beeron:
Chief, what is the amount commission fee Vest charges, I'm considering leaving bamboo.

------------------------------------
Commission is zero. But you must generate a minimum of $40 worth of transactions monthly if your account balance is less than a specific amount ( sorry for some reason I will not mention the amount). Just shoot an email to Vest (their Customer service is excellent, they will reply you).

Then you can use our link to open the account and we will give you free 2 weeks access to our members only Caucus and guide you to make you a more profitable Investor/trader

THIS IS THE QUALITY OF REPORTS WE LOOK AT EVERYDAY.
This our live markt update for today.

US MARKET LIVE MARKET UPDATE
REPORT DATE: 02 APRIL 2026
REPORT TIME: 19:42:50 WAT

The long and short of this message us that SpaceX, will make a good investment for the long term. It has to be in our portfolio.

Then. by hook or crook. Trump has indirectly co-opted the likes of China Russia to turn their back against IRAN, and apart from physical war on IRAN, sanctions to prevent IRAN from selling their oil is on the way!!! So with new additional enemies in the likes of China, Russia (although subtle, IRAN surviving continuous blockkage of the strait beyong next 2 weeks looks doubful). But, let us be mindful, oil price will still be high, the damage has already been done, normal volume/quantity will take time to normalise.

GLOBAL AND LOCAL MACRO DRIVERS
The macro narrative for 02 April 2026 is dominated by a "K-shaped" instability. While the broader indices grapple with "Stagflation Shock" fears, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Brent Crude sustaining levels above 100 dollars, sector-specific capital flows are reaching record highs. The primary driver is the official confidential SEC filing for the SpaceX IPO, which has acted as a massive liquidity magnet, drawing institutional interest away from traditional software and into the "Orbital Economy" and Defense. This shift is occurring against a backdrop of sticky inflation (3.0% PCE) and a cooling labor market, creating a volatile environment where "Security and Scarcity" are the only winning themes.

GEOPOLITICAL AND POLICY WATCH
As of the final seconds of this report, President Trump has intensified his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric, stating in a national address that the US will continue "extremely hard strikes" against Iran for the next two to three weeks. Critically, he has threatened to target civilian energy infrastructure if a negotiated settlement is not reached. Iran has responded by labeling previous strikes as "insignificant" and threatening "crushing" retaliation. This brinkmanship has effectively weaponized the energy markets, ensuring that the Defense and Energy sectors remain decoupled from standard economic cycles.

The White House has issued a formal War Powers notification to Congress, suggesting that while the immediate objective is the degradation of Iranian drone and missile capabilities, the broader strategy includes a complete embargo on Iranian petroleum exports. The US has signaled that space-based assets, specifically the Starlink-xAI integrated network, are now being utilized for real-time battlefield management. This has elevated the SpaceX IPO from a commercial event to a matter of strategic national priority, ensuring deep-pocketed sovereign wealth fund interest.

MARKET RECAP: 01 APRIL VS 02 APRIL 2026
01 APRIL 2026: Markets experienced a Black Swan event characterized by extreme intraday volatility. The combination of the Tehran strikes and the leaked SpaceX IPO filing led to a massive divergence between traditional Tech (Nasdaq -2.1%) and the Defense/Energy complex (XAR/XLE +3.4%).

02 APRIL 2026: The market has entered a phase of Institutional Consolidation. While broad indices are trading flat, there is a distinct "Flight to Quality" within the industrial sector. Capital is being pulled from Consumer Discretionary names and reallocated into firms with heavy Government and Defense contracts. The SpaceX IPO "halo effect" is sustaining a bid in any equity with orbital or satellite communication exposure.

MARKET REACTION TO CALENDAR REPORTS (02 APRIL 2026)
The early trading hours were defined by anxiety surrounding the upcoming 03 April Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Consensus estimates of a sluggish 50,000 to 65,000 job gain, paired with high wage growth, initially triggered "Stagflation" selling. However, the market saw a significant late-hour improvement. This "Late-Day Rip" was driven by two factors:

· Short Covering: Institutional traders, heavily hedged with over 80 billion dollars in net put delta, began covering positions ahead of the weekend.
· The "SpaceX Halo": Follow-on reports confirming the $1.75 trillion valuation for the SpaceX IPO sparked a late-afternoon rally in Aerospace proxies, which bled into the broader Industrial complex.

CORPORATE ACTIONS (01 APRIL - 02 APRIL 2026)

The focal point remains the SpaceX-xAI-X conglomerate filing. Early valuations from the lead underwriters suggest a record-breaking $1.8 trillion market capitalization upon listing. Institutional Money Flow is currently exiting other stocks to build cash reserves for this offering. Additionally, major defense primes have announced accelerated buyback programs to signal confidence amidst the rising geopolitical tensions, further tightening the float in the Aerospace and Defense industry.

HOT INDUSTRY SECTORS OF THE DAY (02 APRIL 2026)
Based on today's price action and Industry Classification:

· Aerospace and Defense: The undisputed leader, fueled by the dual catalysts of the Iran conflict and SpaceX IPO filing.
· Energy Equipment and Services: Leading as markets price in long-term infrastructure repair and domestic drilling ramps.
· Metals and Mining: The top "Improving" sector. Critical minerals (Lithium, Titanium) are seeing parabolic MFI as the "Space Race 2.0" and military replenishment cycle accelerate.
· Electrical Equipment: Benefiting from the "Data Center in Orbit" narrative and domestic grid hardening.

TECHNICAL AND SECTORAL VIEW
using Sector Rotation Graphs reveals a sharp cyclical rotation.

· leading sector: Energy Equipment and Services, Aerospace and Defense, and Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels.
· improving sector: Electrical Equipment, Ground Transportation, and Marine Transportation.
· Lagging to improving: The Metals and Mining industry has officially breached the improving sector. The Institutional Money Flow Index for this sector is rising at the fastest rate since 2022, driven by the demand for copper, lithium, and titanium necessary for the rapid expansion of the defense industrial base and SpaceX's launch cadence.

CURRENT MATTERS ARISING (02 APRIL 2026)
THE SPACEX FILING: Confirmation of the IPO has triggered a "Trillionaire Watch" for Elon Musk. Investment banks are reportedly fighting for lead underwriter roles for the 75 billion dollar capital raise.

THE HORMUZ BLOCKADE: Direct military engagement near the Strait of Hormuz has forced global shipping to reroute, causing a spike in Marine Transportation industry MFI.

FEDERAL RESERVE PIVOT: The "Rock and a Hard Place" dilemma; the Fed must now decide between fighting energy-driven inflation or supporting a labor market weakened by war-time uncertainty.

LIKELY MARKET DIRECTION
The short-term outlook is cautious for the S&P 500, with a Bearish bias for retail and consumer-facing sectors. However, we maintain a High-Conviction Bullish stance on the "Defense-Energy-Space" triad. We expect the market to remain in a high-volatility regime until there is clarity on the scale of the US ground commitment in the Middle East and the finalized pricing for the SpaceX IPO.

*TOP STOCKS TO WATCH / BUY)**
Leading/improving Sectors. These picks focus on the "Lagging to improving" shift in Mining and the sustained "leading" strength in Defense/Energy.

Xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx
Xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx
Xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

forecast: Sideways to Bearish for broad indices but strongly Bullish for the "Defense-Energy-Space" triad.

WHAT DO WE DO IN THIS BRUTAL MARKET
The last one week has been a very difficult one.

Managing normal drawdown without the war would have been easier. This war is a big spoiler for zhe market. For most times I find it difficult to ignore the happening in the market.

Hedging may not solve the problem. We may need to get out of the market temporarily. We should not initiate new positions until there is an end to this war.

The pain is much, we should just do what we should do, liquidate some positions where our losses are still manageable. Take some Profits from those positions that still have some Profits, in the current circumstances there is no "save heaven in any stock". We need to be in cash!!!

Let us see what the Pakistan meeting will achieve

BAD QUALITY SERVICE FROM STOCKBROKERS?
It is time that SEC should monitor the activities of our Stockbrokers, many of them are operating with impunity treating Customers anyhow.

Initially after seeing so many complaints about Morgan Capital, I thought we just have to continue to manage our Stockbrokers once we know their weak points.

For me Morgan Capital quality of Service have deteriorated, yes. But somehow thay are still better than the like of United Capital. If I deposited money today at Morgan, with follow up emails (at least twice, I know the money will be in my portfolio the following day). I have programmed my mind to accept this. Withdrawal for me on Morgan are still okay, if T+2 is completed, most times I get the money same day.

Coming to United Capital, this broker should be in the Guinness World record of Bad quality Customer Service. The Guys are bad and they show it many ways (I start to think the increase in Capital base for Capital market operators is pushing some of these organisations to do things that they are not doing before, like I believe of them now front runs Customise order (SEC need to look into this especially in this era of online trading). No wonder ZCHIS stock could not go round as some Stockbrokers must have blocked their Customers from getting the stock (I remember sending a mail to my Stockbroker to help me in getting some quantity of the stock, instantly I got a mail that it is not possible for them to help me as the stock is on full bid).

Then the most fraustrating aspect of dealing with United Capital is withdrawal. For those of is using their investlivenow (the old platform, Customer Service said we cannot be moved to the new platform), the automatically withdrawal has been disconnected, you send a message for withdraw and you get a reply that your matter would be attended to after 24hrs (Morgan is better here System starts processing your request and same day if request was before 12 noon you get your money that same day as long as T+2 is completed).

To cut the long story short, I want to avoid United Capital Stockbrokers. Whatever issue Morgan Capital has, if we follow their requirements they are still Manageable compared with the likes of United Capital, just like the Stockbroker that has platform issue for over 2 days did not inform the Customers, orders not goin through!!! SEC needs to improve the surveillance on the activities of our Stockbrokers especially looking at the improvements in technology, your trading platform cannot be down fir 2 days and you don't inform the Customer. Withdrawal request is sent, but will not be attended to after 24hrs is unacceptable

WHAT IS THE THE LIKELY MARKET DIRECTION TODAY?

TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS PRE MARKET
The continuation of IRAN/US war is ravaging the market.

Equally on the chips side US China are at each other's throat again.

This is a time we have to exercise patience.

MARKET HAS BEEN VOLATILE SINCE MONDAY
The best action we can take for now is to learn how to wait.

The war has brought a lot of shock tzo this market;

WHAT WILL THE ALLSHARE INDEX FOR TODAY.
When a market is strong, some new vocabularies can show up. For the Nigeria market the oil sector has entered a "structural bullish regime", long term to medium term duration. The other vocabulary is "Episodic event", this is a temporary event which will go away soon. For inflation resulting from the oil prices/logistics dislocation we may say this is a temporary event (let us wait and see this one, looks trickish to see if it is episodic). For many of us the structure shift may likely be what is of interest to us.

TODAY SHOULD E A BETTER DAY!!!
In the Global market, I love the Oil stocks. The sector has the best dividend yield

LOOKING AT SOME CHART FOR OIL STOCKS
I am amazed at so many oil stock charts showing the various stocks in strong uptrend.

After looking at the charts, I am of the opinion that if you are trading/investing in global stocks and you have no oil stock,it is like one is committing a crime. I remember that Fela song " NA SUEGBE NA PAKO".

Some oil stocks: CVX, APA,PBR, EC, ET etc

Are you afraid the war will end!!! Yes everyone want the war to end, we do not want inflation. But after the war, oil will stay above $90 for at least tge next 3 months, so oil stocks should make more profit

Good luck to everyone.

TARGET TECHNICAL EARLY MORNING MARKET COMMENT !!

WHAT WILL NIGERIA INDEC FO TODAY!

WHAT WILL THE ALL SHARE INDEX DO TODAY?

**US STOCK MARKET REPORT- 27 FEB 2026 AND PLAN FOR THE NEW WEEK STARTING 2 MARCH 2025**- EXTRACT
For the new week: GOLD. ENERGY, DEFENCE, URANIUM are among sectors holding the ace.

Full details is as shown below. We will follow up qith daily reports which should be more consistent this week.

US WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
Market Summary
The S&P 500 edged down 0.4% this week, led by the technology and financial sectors. The index ended the week at 6,878.88. With Friday representing the last trading day of the month, the market benchmark recorded a 0.9% decline in February. It is still up 0.5% for 2026.

Market Direction Forecast for the Trading Window of 2 March to 5 March 2026

The base case is cautiously bearish to neutral on equities and bullish on hard assets. The market is in a negative gamma territory below 7,000, meaning dealers must sell rallies and buy dips in small increments, which prevents sustained uptrends. The January Producer Price Index (PPI) report has pushed expectations for a first-half 2026 rate cut to near zero. The 10-year yield falling below 4% signals stagflation acceptance, not a growth recovery. Dollar weakness below 97.54 provides a consistent bid for Gold and Silver while undermining equity multiple support.

The Bull Path (30% probability) would see the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on 2 March print above 53 with declining prices paid. The S&P 500 would reclaim 6,950 to 7,000, and the VIX would compress back to 17.
The Bear Path (50% probability) would see ISM Services prices paid remain elevated on 4 March and ADP private employment come in strong. The VIX would spike to the 23 to 25 range, with the S&P 500 testing 6,700 to 6,750.
The Neutral Path (20% probability) would see data prints in line with expectations, with the market chopping between 6,850 and 6,950 on declining volume.

Global and Macro Drivers

Economic News
The US producer price index rose by 0.5% in January following a 0.4% increase in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was higher than the 0.3% gain expected in a Bloomberg survey. After excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, core PPI rose by 0.8%, higher than the 0.3% gain anticipated and the previous month's 0.6% jump.

This is a textbook stagflation setup. Growth is slowing, but inflation is not. January payrolls were 130,000 versus a 68,000 estimate. The Federal Reserve is effectively trapped, with markets now pricing a 96% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Liquidity and Central Banks

Global buybacks surged to $327 billion year-to-date through February, the largest two-month start on record. This corporate bid provides a structural floor but cannot absorb a macro re-rating. Central bank balance sheets globally remain in passive runoff mode. The Fed's quantitative tightening continues at pace.

Yields and the Dollar

The yield curve is exhibiting a bull steepener dynamic. Long bonds are rallying on stagflation and artificial intelligence (AI) displacement fear, pulling the 10-year yield below 4%.
2-Year Treasury: 3.389%, down 5 basis points on the day and down from roughly 3.55% a week prior.
10-Year Treasury: 3.962%, dropped back below the 4% threshold, down from roughly 4.1%.
30-Year Treasury: 4.631%, marginally lower.

The Dollar Index (DXY) at 97.54 is down 0.20% on the day and is a multi-month low. A sustained break below 97 could open the door to 95 to 96 on the medium-term chart. This dollar weakness is the primary transmission mechanism for the Gold and Silver breakout.

Geopolitical and Policy Watch

25 February: Trump State of the Union Address. Treasury yields edged higher on deficit spending concerns. Tariff language was escalatory. Market impact is multi-day and unresolved.
20 February: Supreme Court ruling on International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs. This provided partial relief for trading partners, but weighted average tariff rates are only modestly lower. Uncertainty remains elevated into March trade data.
27 February: Hot January PPI print released. This was the inflection trigger for the selloff and has reset rate cut expectations.
2 March: ISM Manufacturing PMI February release. Consensus is in expansion zone, but risks are skewed to downside given surveyed price pressures.
4 March: ADP Private Employment February. This is a leading indicator ahead of the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report.
4 March: ISM Services PMI February release. The services sector is the dominant inflation vector. A hot services PMI prices component would confirm another leg down in equities.
5 March: Initial Jobless Claims. A rise above 250,000 would be the first credible dovish signal.

Sector Rotation Analysis for the Trading Week 1 to 5 March 2026

Leading Sectors
Hard Assets, including Gold, Silver, Energy, and Utilities, are benefiting from the stagflation regime and dollar weakness. Defense is also in the leading quadrant, driven by European rearmament themes and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) spending commitments.

Improving Sectors
Energy is broadly improving. WTI and Brent each rose near 3% on the week on geopolitical Iran risk and Venezuela-related supply disruption concerns. Uranium is positioning for power demand from AI infrastructure.

Weakening Sectors
Technology is broadly weakening. Semiconductors are under pressure from AI capital expenditure demand skepticism following guidance misses and layoff announcements.

Lagging Sectors
Consumer Discretionary is under pressure from rates remaining higher for longer and AI displacement labor fears. Small Caps are underperforming as credit conditions tighten for small and medium-sized enterprises. Crypto is broadly lagging the risk-on narrative despite dollar weakness.

TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COMMENT
Market very good today. Bullish move give some opportunity to recover losses.

By tommorrow NVDA result would have been know. This result will determine if the bullish move will continue or not.

Following the standard rile of trading, experts would have avoided buying NVDA today. But alas NVDA and other Semiconductor stocks has a good outing today.

No problem, it just show us that most traders disobey vital rules of trading, just like the time this forum was reigning, a lot of us would have voted tht today is a day to buy NVDA. But best day to buy NVDA is after the release of the result.

So tommorrow let us see how the market will do. Using my story experience, I believe NVDA shoukd do well. There was a time that through Trump, they got one order worth about $5billion (but likely to be spread over some years), also a similar order but of a lower value was secured from China, so looking at all these NVDA should perform well.

However, the issue is always the forward guidance, if the company performed well in the quarter that have just passed, can the performance be maintained looking at the next quarter? This is the big question.

So tommorrow we will see what will happen to AI stocks.

yok:
TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COMMENTS FOR 24 FEBRUARY 2026
We are happy to see the market opening today.

The optimism for the continuation of the uptrend is high. Today is likely to be a Consolidation day or slightly bearish (but the bears knows that this is not the season for bears, just like we can have few rains in the dry season, few bearish day can happen in a bullish market especially when there is a negative news: Ellahlakes refunding IPO money, Zichis suspension etc).

There is nothing to fear in this market at the moment as long as the market is above the primary support of 193,500 (this is the first river for the vears to cross)

Market closed fairly better than our forecast at -0.06%, but tomorrow's performance will tell us if the seeming stability portrayed today will stay. But from a physical observation of the premier index, things are still shacky. However, tomorrow's forecast/comment will give us what we can hold on to.

TARGET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COMMENTS FOR 24 FEBRUARY 2026
We are happy to see the market opening today.

The optimism for the continuation of the uptrend is high. Today is likely to be a Consolidation day or slightly bearish (but the bears knows that this is not the season for bears, just like we can have few rains in the dry season, few bearish day can happen in a bullish market especially when there is a negative news: Ellahlakes refunding IPO money, Zichis suspension etc).

There is nothing to fear in this market at the moment as long as the market is above the primary support of 193,500 (this is the first river for the vears to cross)

US WEEKLY REPORT 2O FEB 2026 AND PLAN FOR 23 FEB TO 27 FEB 2026
The weekly report is telling us the we look for buying opportunities in: SEMICONDUCTORS (we are to wait to see if NVDA result will meet expectations on 25 Feb, after market hours. If result is positive we look for buys and if negative we look to sell), SILVER, GOLD , URANIUM, AEROSPACE

ENERGY looks neutra, Brent> $68 is good for oul but bad for inflation (so we may see Trump rising up again to see how to bring down oil price).

5 factors to watch this week:
- US court Saying some Tariffs imposed by Trump are against the law
- credit problem, blue Owl Capital seems to have run into some problem
- Stagflation as a result of Tariff/Oil prices/PCE rising
- NVDA result, this iva strong Bell weather stocks (where ever it goes,the market goes, especially the Semiconductor stocks
- IRAN US conflict is still on

More details are in the main report below:
__________________________________________________
US Market Weekly Summary
WEEKLY SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Communication services had the largest percentage increase of the week, climbing 2.3%, followed by gains of 1.7% each in consumer discretionary and industrials. Financials and technology added 1.5% each. Energy and real estate also eked out small gains of 0.1% each.

On the downside, consumer staples fell 2.3%, followed by a 0.6% decline in health care and a 0.5% loss in utilities. Materials also edged slightly lower. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _. _ _ _ _