Growing up in the mid Seventies, the conventional wisdom around Catholic circles in Eastern Nigeria goes something like this: Once the current Pope dies, Francis Arinze will become the next Pope (Arinze has been an Arch-Bishop and Cardinal for almost 50 years). Since then, a few Popes have come and gone and still Arinze remains a Cardinal. The closet he came to being a Pope was in 2005 when a vocal group of American Catholics lobbied hard for him to replace Pope John Paul II. As we all know, that never came to pass.

Now Pope Benedict has stepped down as Pope and the Catholics are once again looking for a new Pope. As expected, Cardinal Arinze’s name is again being mentioned as a potential candidate but not as loudly as in 2005. That is understandable since age is no longer on his side (he is now in his 80s). Despite the fact that Arinze’s chances of becoming Pope now is slim to none, let us imagine what the Catholic Church would look like under his leadership.

Cardinal Arinze is not just a conservative Catholic. He is an ultra-conservative Catholic. That’s primarily why other ultra-conservative Catholics around the world love him. However, most members of the Catholic church are not ultra-conservative. They practice what is known as “Buffet Catholicsm”. This simply refers to “Catholics that pick and choose which parts of Catholicism to follow”. For instance the following practices are forbidden in Catholic Liturgy:

1. Pre-marital Sex
2. Use of Condoms
3. Birth Control Pills
4. Abortion
5. Divorce

Clearly, a large percentage of Catholics do not adhere to many of the restrictions listed above especially items 2 and 3. However a Pope Arinze will most likely push to ban “buffet Catholicsm”. He will try to ensure that all Catholics practice their faith the way it was practiced 200 years ago. That would mean no condoms, no birth control pills, no pre-marital sex or divorce (except in extreme circumstances with approval from the church). In this day and age, a strict ban on these practices is simply not feasible. So a hard line Pope Arinze may mean a mass exodus of adherents from the Catholic Church.

P.S: The Catholic hierarchy (ie the Priests, Bishops and Cardinals) in the US were vehemently opposed to the re-election of Barack Obama. In fact at the height of the 2012 presidential campaign, they took Obama to court over disagreements on insurance coverage for birth control pills. However, in line with “buffet Catholicsm”, Catholic parishioners largely ignored the wishes of the hierarchy and voted for Obama en masse.