The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been
described by the World Health Organisation,
WHO, and historians to have the potential to
cause havoc as much as any plague has ever
done in the history of mankind.
According to the WHO, the deadly Ebola Virus
Disease, EVD, ravaging the West Africa have
recorded more than 4,300 cases and 2,300 deaths
over the past six months.
Only last week, the United Nations agency warned
that, by early October, there may be thousands of
new cases per week in Liberia, Sierra Leone,
Guinea and Nigeria.
However, on Thursday, 11 September, 2014, the
director of the Center for Infectious Disease
Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota,
USA, Michael T. Osterholm, in an opinion piece he
wrote for the New York Times, revealed that there
are things about the Ebola virus that are not
getting said publicly despite briefings and
discussions in the inner circles of the world’s
public health agencies.
Ebola density in Africa.
Osterholm claimed the world isin totally uncharted
waters and that Mother Nature is the only force in
charge of the Ebola virus disease.
Below are full texts of the opinion:
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has the potential
to alter history as much as any plague has ever
done.
There have been more than 4,300 cases and 2,300
deaths over the past six months. Last week, the
World Health Organization warned that, by early
October, there may be thousands of new cases per
week in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea and Nigeria.
What is not getting said publicly, despite briefings
and discussions in the inner circles of the world’s
public health agencies, is that we are in totally
uncharted waters and that Mother Nature is the
only force in charge of the crisis at this time.
There are two possible future chapters to this
story that should keep us up at night.
The first possibility is that the Ebola virus spreads
from West Africa to megacities in other regions of
the developing world.
This outbreak is very different from the 19 that
have occurred in Africa over the past 40 years. It is
much easier to control Ebola infections in isolated
villages.
But there has been a 300 percent increase in
Africa’s population over the last four decades,
much of it in large city slums.
What happens when an infected person yet to
become ill travels by plane to Lagos, Nairobi,
Kinshasa or Mogadishu — or even Karachi,
Jakarta, Mexico City or Dhaka?
The second possibility is one that virologists are
loath to discuss openly but are definitely
considering in private: that an Ebola virus could
mutate to become transmissible through the air.
Ebola Outbreak in West Africa
You can now get Ebola only through direct contact
with bodily fluids. But viruses like Ebola are
notoriously sloppy in replicating, meaning the
virus entering one person may be genetically
different from the virus entering the next.
The current Ebola virus’s hyper-evolution is
unprecedented; there has been more human-to-
human transmission in the past four months than
most likely occurred in the last 500 to 1,000 years.
Each new infection represents trillions of throws of
the genetic dice.
If certain mutations occurred, it would mean that
just breathing would put one at risk of contracting
Ebola.
Infections could spread quickly to every part of the
globe, as the H1N1 influenza virus did in 2009,
after its birth in Mexico.
Why are public officials afraid to discuss this? They
don’t want to be accused of screaming “Fire!” in a
crowded theater — as I’m sure some will accuse
me of doing. But the risk is real, and until we
consider it, the world will not be prepared to do
what is necessary to end the epidemic.
In 2012, a team of Canadian researchers proved
that Ebola Zaire, the same virus that is causing the
West Africa outbreak, could be transmitted by the
respiratory route from pigs to monkeys, both of
whose lungs are very similar to those of humans.
Richard Preston’s 1994 best seller “The Hot Zone”
chronicled a 1989 outbreak of a different strain,
Ebola Reston virus, among monkeys at a
quarantine station near Washington.
The virus was transmitted through breathing, and
the outbreak ended only when all the monkeys
were euthanized.
We must consider that such transmissions could
happen between humans, if the virus mutates.
So what must we do that we are not doing?
First, we need someone to take over the position of
“command and control.” The United Nations is the
only international organization that can direct the
immense amount of medical, public health and
humanitarian aid that must come from many
different countries and nongovernmental groups
to smother this epidemic.
Thus far it has played at best a collaborating role,
and with everyone in charge, no one is in charge.
A Security Council resolution could give the United
Nations total responsibility for controlling the
outbreak, while respecting West African nations’
sovereignty as much as possible.
The United Nations could, for instance, secure
aircraft and landing rights. Many private airlines
are refusing to fly into the affected countries,
making it very difficult to deploy critical supplies
and personnel.
The Group of 7 countries’ military air and ground
support must be brought in to ensure supply
chains for medical and infection-control products,
as well as food and water for quarantined areas.
The United Nations should provide whatever
number of beds are needed; the World Health
Organization has recommended 1,500, but we may
need thousands more.
It should also coordinate the recruitment and
training around the world of medical and nursing
staff, in particular by bringing in local residents
who have survived Ebola, and are no longer at risk
of infection.
Many countries are pledging medical resources,
but donations will not result in an effective
treatment system if no single group is responsible
for coordinating them.
Finally, we have to remember that Ebola isn’t West
Africa’s only problem. Tens of thousands die there
each year from diseases like AIDS, malaria and
tuberculosis.
Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea have among the
highest maternal mortality rates in the world.
Because people are now too afraid of contracting
Ebola to go to the hospital, very few are getting
basic medical care.
In addition, many health care workers have been
infected with Ebola, and more than 120 have died.
Liberia has only 250 doctors left, for a population
of four million.
This is about humanitarianism and self-interest. If
we wait for vaccines and new drugs to arrive to
end the Ebola epidemic, instead of taking major
action now, we risk the disease’s reaching from
West Africa to our own backyards.

hmm. God save us