To many Nigerians, both home and abroad, Dele Momodu
is known as a Nigerian journalist, publisher, actor,
motivational speaker and businessman who owns the
renowned Ovation International, a magazine that has
given publicity to people in Africa and all over the World.
What many people do not know about the 54-year-old
publisher born in Ile-Ife, Osun State, western Nigeria on
16 May, 1960, is that he is also a political analyst.
To this end, Momodu, who graduated from the University
of Ife, (now Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife) in 1982
with a degree in Yoruba and a Masters degree in English
Literature in 1988, writes a weekly article called
PENdulum on the back page of Thisday newspaper.
The articles are praised for highlighting issues in Nigeria,
as well as discussing popular topics, current events and
famous people.
In one of his latest articles, Momodu predicted how votes
will be shared between a former Head of State, Gen.
Muhammadu Buhari, and the incumbent President
Goodluck Jonathan come 2015 presidential elections in
Nigeria.
According to the Momodu, if Nigerians are asked to elect
their president today, Buhari would defeat President
Jonathan mercilessly.
Below is how Dele Momodu came to this conclusion:
“ Fellow Nigerians, time changes everything indeed. In
2011, I would have said worse things about General
Muhammadu Buhari. In truth, I actually wrote Buhari off
completely, not without cogent reasons that I considered
valid and relevant at that time. The first was that Buhari
was too old to lead us.
I was biased by the Obama Presidency and the
emergence of David Cameron in Britain. I felt Buhari as a
former dictator should be totally expunged from the race.
I was also brainwashed by the relentless propaganda
that he was a religious fundamentalist of the worst kind.
If I was good in Fine Arts, I would have painted him in the
lurid and monstrous image of Lucifer. That was how bad
it was.
Trust me, I’m supposed to be one of the most liberal and
tolerant human beings but it was just difficult for me to
accept Buhari as a Presidential candidate at this time
and age. I nearly clashed with my dear friend and
brother, Simon Kolawole, after reading an article he had
penned on Buhari and practically endorsing him at that
time. I was so livid that I did not wait for Simon to get out
of church before I started bombarding his lines with
frenetic calls. When he eventually got back to me, and in
his usual humble manner said “Egbon, I missed your
calls, hope all is well?” I responded that all was not well
as he had spoilt my appetite and breakfast that morning
with his effusive praise of someone I considered a red-
faced tyrant.
Simon was as cool as cucumber. He was incredibly blunt
as he instantly confessed his unrepentant love,
admiration and support for Buhari…
So far, in all 2015 Opinion polls, Buhari is beating
Jonathan mercilessly.
Without doubt, Buhari is a modern-day wonder. The
story of his life is a stuff of thriller novels. In a country
where money fixes most things and people, how did he
manage to control the bodies and souls of his fanatical
supporters? What is it that makes him such a dual
personality that draws so many people to him while
others withdraw as if to run away from a victim of Ebola?
What can Buhari do or achieve at his age in this modern
world where life itself has become computerised? I
suffered from this interior monologue for a long time.
Some of my fears started evaporating one night in Abuja
when I was invited over to meet him at the instance of
Prince Lanrewaju Tejuoso, one of his godsons. I was
dazed at the ease Prince Lanrewaju was able to get him
to meet with me at such short notice. I was impressed
that there were no intruders during our heart-to-heart
talk. Perhaps, because he had no money to share, the
usual parasites crawling all over the corridors of power
were not in sight. He spoke calmly but firmly. He had this
childlike innocence around him. It was difficult to
imagine this man sitting across me could hurt a fly even
as a soldier. There were no airs around him or chips on
his shoulders. What you saw was what you got; take it or
leave it. Many had confessed to similar reaction upon
meeting him.
We took pictures together without much ado. And I
actually found him more charismatic than my jaundiced
eyes could have permitted. What I saw was that raw
Fulani beauty and handsomeness. I and my aides left the
place liking him a bit.
Of course the election came as usual and Dr Goodluck
Ebele Jonathan trounced Buhari mercilessly. But most of
us got so carried away that we failed to appreciate how
well the man had performed against all odds. Here was a
man without loads of cash. He didn’t have a
preponderance of powerful Governors behind him. He
could not mobilise so many billionaires to fund him. He
lacked the power of incumbency. He could not secure the
much needed coalition with ACN at the time. Many
Christians saw him as Satan on earth. Many youths
considered him too old. The super-rich saw him as the
sword of Damocles dangling over them. All the odds
were stacked up against him. Yet this poor man, as I like
to describe him, recorded a whopping 12,214,853 votes
while President Jonathan scored 22,495,187 votes.
Let’s break it down into simple Maths. Jonathan had a
good spread scoring 25% or more in 31 States. Buhari
managed to score 25% or more in 16 States and yet got a
cumulative result of over 12 million votes. A good
Mathematician should be able to help us here because I
wish to show our President’s handlers that they will pay
heavily for complacency if they assume and take it for
granted that they can beat Buhari easily like PDP had
always done in the past. Let me explain it further. A man
who won the mandatory 25% in about half of the States
secured by the President still went ahead to poll over half
of what the President got. Now this is the trickery part.
Let me begin with the most obvious. Buhari had only
37.96% in Adamawa while Jonathan had 56%. The
registered voters were 1,816,094 but the voter-turnout
was a miserable 49.98%. With the way the country is
right now, PDP would require a miracle to win Adamawa
with a landslide. If Buhari secures the APC ticket, it is
almost certain that he would clean up that State. And in
case the voters turn out much bigger, it means that State
can wipe off some of the deficits Buhari suffered in 2011.
The two leading parties can still jerk up about one million
extras which won’t be a bad idea even if PDP still gets
25% or more.

Let’s walk across to another interesting State, Bauchi
where Buhari recorded 1,315,209 against Jonathan’s
258,404 despite the avuncular presence of PDP
Governor, Yisa Yuguda. The registered voters here were
2,523,614 but only 1,610,094 voters chose to vote with
nearly 1,000,000 voters hibernating somewhere. I hope
you’re patient enough to follow this Maths lesson.
Benue would certainly be a major battle ground this time
for the candidates because the State has over 1.3 million
voters (out of a total registration of 2,390,884) buried
somewhere for the strongest candidate to resurrect. Here
ethnicity and religion would play critical roles more than
ever before. It is presently a virtual PDP State with
Jonathan polling 694,776 against Buhari’s 109,680 and
ACN (Nuhu Ribadu) 223,007. Benue had always been a
State of enlightened voters and it may swing in favour of
a serious candidate.
Let’s keep moving and find somewhere to land in the
troubled spot of Borno State. This is a treasure ground
with 2,380,957 out of which more than half of the voters
have absconded and vanished into thin air. In 2011,
Buhari 909,763 against the President’s humble 207,075
votes. Now this State is under fire but is NOW largely
controlled by the new alliance known as APC.
Let’s saunter across to Gombe where Buhari scored
459,898 against Jonathan’s 290,347 votes out of a total
registration of 1,318,377. All the parties combined
recorded 770,019 voters. The implication of this is that if
this State decides to be generous, it may dash out about
548,358 votes. We are still moving and scavenging for
the votes wherever they are hiding.
Let’s say some quick Hello to our Brother, Governor of
Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, who couldn’t hold Buhari
down despite his equally tall physique. Here Buhari
polled 663,994 against Jonathan’s 419,252. Total votes
cast came to 1,140,766 out of 2,013,974 total
registrations. Do not say I told you, this State has some
873,208 unseen registered voters probably
perambulating as we write. This journey is still long and
arduous.
Kaduna is a major war zone for the candidates because
of its peculiar characteristics. Buhari’s supremacy was
hotly challenged as Jonathan polled 1,190,179 against
Buhari’s 1,334,244 votes . Total votes cast were
2,569,963 out of 3,905,387 total registered voters. Now
wait for the good news of the kingdom; this beautiful
State has 1,335,424 voters that it can conjure whenever
needed or ready.
If you think Kaduna was super, please, wait for the
almighty Kano where no serious candidate can play silly
pranks with the energetic and fearless Governor, Rabiu
Kwankwaso. In 2011, Buhari massacred Jonathan with
1,624,543 against 440,666. The then Governor and
Presidential candidate, Ibrahim Shekarau even scored
more than the President with his 526,310 votes. The total
votes cast came to 2,673,228 out of 5,027,297. In case
your Maths is poor like mine, let’s find a calculator
before the brains explode. Kano alone can conveniently
and benevolently donate 2,354,069 potential voters out of
the skies.
We finally arrive in Buhari’s homestead of Katsina where
he expectedly polled 1,163,919 against Jonathan’s
428,392. It is either many Katsina people didn’t dig their
own son, since prophets hardly get honoured at home, or
Buhari just didn’t employ artful dodgers to manipulate
the votes in his favour. In all, 1,639,532 voters performed
their civic duty out of 3,126,898 registered voters. By fire,
by force, Katsina on a good day can still conjure some
1,487,366 votes.
Please, permit me to fast forward to the State of the
Sokoto Caliphate where a floodgate can still be opened.
Strangely, Buhari pulled merely 540,769 shots against
Jonathan’s 309,057. A total of 909,808 voters came out
of 2,267,509 registered voters. No one is able to explain
this anomalous situation to us properly but some
1,357,701 unseen voters may decide to show up in 2015.
Please, bear with me, you must be getting tired but we
need to do this together because of my over-confident
friends in Abuja who must have had F9 in Mathematics
like me.
Let me now give you the shock treatment and take you
straight to the biggest theatres of war. I must warn that
this not for the faint-hearted. Welcome to the heartbeat of
Nigeria known as Lagos State where Jonathan polled
1,281,688 against Buhari’s 189,983 and Nuhu Ribadu’s
427,203. Wait for this, only 1,945,044 voters turned up
out of 6,108,069 voters. In effect, Lagos can, in its true
majesty, produce additional 4,163,025 out of its bag of
magic.
I wish there was space to display all the figures but it
won’t be possible. But let me continue with the random
sampling. Many of the States won by Jonathan or PDP or
both, depending on why you voted in 2011, are not so
easily available at this time. Take Oyo for example under
the control of APC beyond the next Presidential election
may prove too tough to handle. Only 863,544 out of
2,572,140 voters appeared in public but we don’t know
the whereabouts of 1,708,596 potential voters.
Ogun State is another interesting territory where 543,715
people voted out of 1,941,170 who registered to vote.
Meanwhile, the largest turnout of voters was recorded in
areas controlled by Jonathan but let’s examine the
figures. Abia has used up 1,188,333 out of 1,524,484;
Akwa Ibom 1,232,395 out of 1,616,873; Anambra
1,157,239 out of 2,011,746; BAYELSA 506,693 out of
591,870; Cross River 726,341 out of 1,148,486; Delta
1,398,579 out of 2,032,191; Edo 621 out of 1,655,776;
Ebonyi 502,890 out of 1,050,534; Ekiti 261,858 out of
764,726; Enugu 814,009 out of 1,303155; Imo 1,409,850
out of 1,687,293; Kwara 414,754 out of 1,152,361; Ondo
486,837 out of 1,616,091; Osun (lost by Jonathan)
512,714 out of 1,293,967; Rivers (the largest State in
South South) 1,854,116 out of 2,429,231 and so and so
on.
This should give you a fair representation of what is at
stake in the 2015 election. Politics is not exactly Maths
but it is still a game of numbers. Those who think an
incumbent President cannot be defeated should wake up
from their self-induced coma. The mood of the Nigerian
nation is very similar to that which swept Obama into
power. Lagos and Kano combined account for 11,135,366
registered voters out of a grand total of 73,528,040. Only
38,199,219 people voted in all the States. There are
35,328,821 floating somewhere. Most of them are
comfortably resident in APC States.
My free advice to the Jonathan campaigner is simple;
stop projecting our President as a sectional leader whose
only qualification is where he comes from. Stop raining
insults on Northerners and avoid maligning innocent
Muslims. The religious card you wish and hope to play
will never play out in favour of President Jonathan. You
should concentrate on projecting the positive work and
his Transformation Agenda. A President is the father of
the nation. A lot of damage has been done by portraying
him as a victim who’s derided by everyone except his
own.
The President’s handlers should worry more about how
the goodwill of 2011 got frittered away in such a jiffy.
Above all, they should urgently search for competent
Maths teachers.
Believe me, the figures are no longer adding up.”

http://www.naij.com/313165-dele-momodu-predicts-2015-presidential-election.html

Hmm

Buhari,I heard a lot of good things abt this man.

amiskurie:
Hmm

Buhari,I heard a lot of good things abt this man.

na So me too dey hear