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Will Working Refineries Affect Our Exchange Rate? - Investment - Nairaland

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Will Working Refineries Affect Our Exchange Rate? by osile2012: 4:43pm On Jun 19, 2015
I bought some dollars and stored in in my dom account, because i heard they could possible devalue the naira.

I heard about 4 refineries in Nigeria will start operation next month. I will like to know if exchange rate will be affected when this happens.

Let me know know if i should change my money back to naira and bear the loss or leave it in dollar. Can any economist shed more light on this.

Thanks
Re: Will Working Refineries Affect Our Exchange Rate? by Crieff(m): 5:09pm On Jun 19, 2015
While I am no economist, any gains the naira might make against the dollar is very negligible.

Significant gains against the dollar will take quite a while. Hold out however for expert advice.
Re: Will Working Refineries Affect Our Exchange Rate? by bayplus: 6:50pm On Jun 19, 2015
I am an economist but the nigeran economy is such an unpredictable one because of several distortions.

Ideally, if the four refineries were truly working, it should free us from needless petroleum products importation, which will also reduce pressure on demand for dollars by oil marketers to import these products. 95% of oil subsidies scam proceeds are also outside our economy stored in foreign banks!

Normally, if the demand for dollar reduces, it should strengthen the value of naira and vice versa.

But guess what?

The politicians and top civil servants have not stopped stealing, even now!

Moreso, that PMB has not done any shake-up in ministries, parastatals and so on.

Therefore, in a sane environment, we can safely say that if N1.3trillion ( over $6 bilion dollar)allegedly spent on fuel annually since 2010) were to be saved, naira should appreciate in value automatically.

But then this is nigeria, where anything can happen.

My advise, if you have other meaningful business into which you can invest your money with certainty of good return on investment (ROI), please sell and invest the money. But if you have no idea of what to do with the money in naira for now, by all means leave it in your dom account.

However, expect the parity to be between + or - 15% in few weeks. What tha means is the price could be as higher as N245 to a dollar or as low as N200 to a dollar.

Most foreign investments that were taken out of nigeria few weeks before the election that led to the major devaluation of the naira because these foreign investors were not sure of wether nigeria was going to break up as was predicted then or not.

But most are very likely to return with a much bigger investment once President Buhari's policy direction is clear and all the ministers are appointed, you will see more forex in investment coming in, the combination of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment and bigger savings to be made on fuel importation will most likely increase the value of the naira.

But like I said, if the politicians and govt officials will not stop stealing through other leakages that may not be easy to detect for a while, and keep sending their loots to Switzerland, then we may not see appreciable value addition to our dear naira
Re: Will Working Refineries Affect Our Exchange Rate? by osile2012: 10:29am On Jun 20, 2015
Thanks for your contributions. I guess ill hold on a lil bit. .

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